Hurricane Harbor: Alberto Flying the Flag of Subtropical Storm For Now... Recon Going In... Models.. Watches, Warnings and Welcome to the Hurricane Season 2018

Watches and warnings.

Yes... watches up for the New Orleans area...

...all the way to the Florida Panhandle.

Closed circulation.

90L got a name....

There is so much to talk about today regarding Alberto and yet much of what is said today may change drastically over the next few days before Alberto makes landfall along the Gulf Coast. Facts that we know so far are shown below:

Alberto exists and advisories were begun by the NHC.
A cone for Alberto exists.
Alberto is currently Subtropical but may become Tropical closer to land.
Alberto is still close to land, that land being the Yucatan.
Shear is strong blowing convection off to the right away from the center.
There are multiple small vortexes in Alberto near the center.
The water is warm enough to sustain a 40 MPH Subtropical Storm.
The water up in the Gulf of Mexico is warmer.
The water close in to land known as "shelf water" is much warmer.
There are no strong fronts dipping down to grab this storm.
There is a strong High Pressure Ridge to the East over Florida.
That ridge may continue to push West helping nudge Alberto to the left at landfall.
A mid to upper level low is forecast to strengthen in the GOM.
The High and the Upper Mid Level Low are the basic steering currents as of now.
Things change often.
Recon is in the storm and that data will be used in the next few model runs.
We will know Saturday Night and Sunday Morning exactly what will or won't be.
Right now we have lots of facts and good satellite imagery and forecast models.

Some models and past weather history show that Alberto could become a Hurricane just prior to land fall and that needs to be paid attention to closely. It might not but it's on the table...

Speaking of Models.

Euro

GFS

They are close.

Time will tell.

Some of the models do strange things most likely based on a weaker storm battling shear and weak steering currents. Some take it further right on landfall, others take it further east at landfall. The real deal will show it's hand later in the next 36 hours as Alberto shows what it's got currently hidden half on land and half off down by the Yucatan. The NHC has put out the cone shown below. Again remember weather is far removed from the center so be aware everywhere from Florida to Louisiana and then further inland can and will get weather from Alberto.

Everywhere in the orange that I drew...

...could get strong weather.

The salient part of the cone is shown below.

Note timing here may change.

Expect surprises and changes to happen.

Timing and intensity need to be watched.

Alberto could slow down and wander.

Or Alberto could speed up.

Will Alberto wander over warmer water?

Or will Alberto wander over colder water?

Will Alberto follow the yellow orange brick road?

The NHC puts out a great product these days.

Read it carefully it is shown below:

There are many cities that need to watch Alberto.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/251444.shtml

The link above shows all the places that had even small percentages from Miami to New Orleans. Many within the area inside the cone have the highest percentage and will be under watches and warnings.

What do I think? I think it's probable that Alberto will become a full fledged Tropical Storm and I think it's possible that it intensifies close to land if the forecasts for the shear to lessen are correct. History has shown us messy Subtropical Storms often transform before our eyes just hours away from landfall. I think we should err on the side of caution and expect Alberto to intensify (even possibly to hurricane strength) but hopefully it will not do so. I think we need to take it seriously and I believe we will see some surprises along the way. There is a small chance of tornadoes over Florida as it slides by depending on how close it and it's associated weather gets to Florida. There is the danger of rip tides that needs to be taken very seriously.

Last week in Myrtle Beach there were crashing waves and a bit of a rip tide and I saw a mother holding an infant dangling her feet in at the edge of the water while her other daughter who didn't look 2 years old ran back and forth in circles next to her. A strong wave slammed ashore and knocked the little girl off her feet. The little girl was terrified thrashing about in wild surf but just at the edge of the water. The mother ran with the infant in one hand towards the little girl and with the other hand pulling her to safety. The father who was further out walked over to help. I was aghast. I just stared wondering what they were thinking. Were they from that area or some place inland clueless how individual waves can crash faster and harder than expected and suddenly tug at anything in it's path pulling them out to sea? Had the rip tide been stronger it might not have ended as well as it did. What upset me the most is a few weeks ago a 4 year old child visiting the Outer Banks from Up North somewhere.... died when he was swept out to sea from a not so strong wave that crashed at the water's edge as he was walking holding his mother's hand. Perhaps she was not used to the intensity of the wind and the waves at the OBX but it was a horrible accident. Obviously the mother who was holding the infant over the water while letting her small little child run near by had not read that article or just simply thought she would be fine. Luckily the child in Myrtle Beach was fine, sadly the little four year old boy in the Outer Banks was not.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/04/30/

boy-swept-out-sea-drowned-body-found/564854002/

It's true I've taken my kids, even when they were small, to the ocean before a hurricane but we stood up on the boardwalk on Miami Beach watching the wind whip, the waves slam onto the beach and sea foam fly on the beach. We learned to respect the wind, the waves and hurricanes early on in Florida. Watch from a space place, but do not go walking at the water's edge with a toddler is my best advice. And, if you think you are a good swimmer now is not the time to show your girlfriend how far out you can swim. Obey the lifeguards and follow the rules. Stay safe.

And, this is why out of an abundance of caution it is better to warn the people in the path of Alberto as well as people visiting beaches such as Anna Maria Island near Tampa on Memorial Day Weekend that safety can be deceptive and an illusion when you are at the beach and a Subtropical Storm is nearby. And as for anyone thinking about going out boating... think again. Save the boat for another day and go see a movie. Literally "save the boat" it's going to be a long summer, go to the movies and take the boat out another day!

It is possible that if Alberto WRAPS up TIGHT into a strong Tropical Storm that the associated weather won't bother as many people over a wider area. But the tides and waves will still be strong so be warned danger and trouble are out there where ever Alberto goes... trouble follows. Note even the WIND will be strong far from the center of Alberto as long as Alberto stays Subtropical.

I'll update the blog early Saturday Evening as I am offline on Saturday for the Jewish Sabbath. It's just the way I roll and it gives me a chance to catch my breath and breathe a bit so I am better at doing what I do the other six day of the week. Works for me. In the meantime, in between time please follow the following people who I follow and are a great, diverse source of tropical information.

@tropicalupdate www.spaghettimodels.com

www.hurricanecity.com

www.crownweather.com

www.windy.com

http://canetalk.com

https://dabuh.com @dadabuh on Twitter

@crankywxguy on Twitter http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm

Many other great sources I'll share but those are my go to sources for fast reliable information.

Some thoughts from around Twitter are shown below. Voices worth listening to...