Invest 90L Forms in the Caribbean. 40% Orange Chances for Development in the Next 5 Days. Memorial Day Storm Weekend Somewhere . . . .

Nice of the NHC to wait until today to post a special tropical statement regarding development of Invest 90L in the Caribbean that is forecast to move up into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. This is the first actual Invest in our neck of the woods and could become a Tropical Depression or named storm down the tropical road; the name would be Alberto. Models are showing different solutions (what else is new?) but they are all strong on development of something. And, after being offline for the last 3 days I'm living on Spaghetti Models following every piece of information both there and on my Twitter feed trying to catch up.

Worth noting it's in the 7 day shown below.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Just in formation phase.

So you can watch the loop below.

The NHC map is shown below.

May 21st - 40% Orange X

Obviously the rain forecast tells the story.

In 5 days time... 

...it's a real soaker.

Again as I have said in recent blogs depending on the track of this system it could dump heavy tropical rain totals onto areas already dealing with localized flooding. This needs to be watched carefully and with systems such as this that form early often the strong convection is displaced from the actual system so let's say we see it moving North towards Mobile Bay the heavy rains could be displaced to the East over Tampa and the Florida Keys or the Miami area. Just something to think on and remember there are many scenarios and it has not yet formed.

Some good voices to listen to shown here.

Again the X is not a storm.

It's an area tagged.

Invest 90L

I'll have a full update tomorrow morning early with all the models that were run this evening on Invest 9OL. The main point to take away from this is the NHC did not put up a yellow X with 10% but they went straight to orange at 40% showing their strong interest in this area and a need to get the best early handle on the track down the road. As we all know.... when something forms going into the Gulf of Mexico any month of the year there is usually only one final resolution and that being landfall somewhere. On rare occasions they fall apart or fail to wrap but even then a weak tropical depression moving slowly with tons of rainfall can bring misery. We are also going into Memorial Day Weekend so someone, somewhere is going to have to deal with this even if it makes landfall a week before June 1st. Stay tuned and keep monitoring for updates and if you live anywhere from Key West to New Orleans you may want to make a Plan B back up to a BBQ on the Beach and check out your hurricane supplies as somewhere could have flooding, damage and loss of power even for a weak system.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter 

Ps...   Heavy, crazy, wild storm in Raleigh tonight just before sundown that brought mucho lightning and flash flooding. One of the heaviest rainstorms I've seen in ages here. Cars are floating, underwater and roads are closed. Crabtree Creek is flooding and it probably wasn't a good day to park at Crabtree Mall today. And, the holiday was wonderful and we had fun and I probably won't eat cheesecake or dairy or cake for a long time. Kind of craving carrot juice lol. Oh my goodness. Always important to keep close attention to your weather app or have a weather radio on to warn you of fast moving weather.