A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
Remnants of Alberto Cause Flash Floods, Mudslides and Road Closures
Regarding the remnants of Alberto.
Alberto went North.
Carrying much moisture with it.
And as always rain fell far to the right of his track.
Road closures from mudslides happened.
It's not uncommon for Appalachia to have this problem.
Especially when a tropical system or it's remnants arrive.
Any old fronts going flat will cause possible problems.
Keeping this short and keeping it sweet today as I'm packing and on the road pretty much Southbound. For what it's worth and not sure what that really means but it's a phrase that keeps coming to mind.. I will be in Miami for the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season; the official start but really that date has been mitigated by the early appearance of Earl. There is discussion that something may develop down below in the Caribbean and the rest of the chatter is about a system forming off the SE Coast that will slide up off shore and go where we aren't sure yet. Basically we aren't sure because it has not formed. Always wait to forecast storms until at least their early embryonic presence is noticeable on satellite imagery and on showing up on multiple runs of the EURO. Hang in there and get whatever hurricane supplies you will need to get through the 2018 Hurricane Season because I think you may need them and the GOM coastline and Mid Atlantic is more at risk this year for several reasons. I can go into those reasons on June 1st so stay tuned.
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps My father who was a fan of a local rock station in Miami kept listening when they switched over to Country in the early 1980s and became a massive fan of Willie Nelson. I was listening to Willie in LA on old cassette tapes bought at Radio Shack with his most famous early hits. So it was amusing that we were living on separate coasts both listening to Willie. He liked the Beatles before I did. In retrospect my father kept on top of music trends quietly and wasn't afraid to try new music. Always think of him when I him when I hear this song. Also because I cried in the scene when Loretta Lynn said goodbye to her father when she went West with her husband in Coal Miner's Daughter and he suggested to her he might not see her again as she was moving away. Luckily I saw my father again and eventually moved back to Florida and my older kids got to know him pretty well. They were both scruffy and had much in common in ways. So I'm on the road again... to see my kids and stepdaughter and my best friends and feel the tropics up close and personal as the Hurricane Season begins!
Subtropical Storm Alberto Makes Landfall Near Panama City in "Laguna Beach" Florida
Alberto Makes Landfall.
And puts Laguna Beach Florida on the map!
Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall today at a small town called Laguna Beach, Florida that is part of Panama City. Why the NHC didn't simply put landfall at Panama City is beyond me, but the good news is that it seems to have put Laguna Beach in Florida on the map.
Subtropical Storm Alberto Moves Slowly Towards Landfall. Weather is Everywhere Moving North Bring the Threat of Flooding.
Messy large swirling, swath of moisture on the right.
On the left is a track up into Canada.
I have a grandson who is young, but when he was even younger his father would serve him an egg every morning for breakfast. He didn't really like eggs and he preferred watching shows on his iPad that looked like an Octopus with a massive protective cover and arms he could easily grab. Every morning for what seemed like months my son would give him an egg, cut it up into small pieces and tell him to eat his breakfast. Every morning there was this battle to get him to eat. He'd take away the Octopus like iPad or threaten to .... to which Judah would respond by pretending to take a bite or two or enough to get back the iPad. After a while I pointed out he didn't really like eggs and I was told "no, he eats them" and eventually time would run out and they'd have to leave for Pre-School. After they left I'd throw out most of the uneaten egg. If I remember right he would have eaten watermelon endlessly but the eggs were a touch and go game of Judah pretending he was eating them and my son pretending he ate them.
This is how I feel watching Alberto endlessly move towards land moving as slow and tediously as he was moving when he was forming down near the Yucatan. Oh my goodness. A bit of clarity here as per the picture below in that the dark orange reds near South Florida, the Florida Straits and Cuba are not the center of Alberto. Alberto is the white donut hole that makes me want a cinnamon roll for breakfast however I'm doing Paleo this week so that's not happening. An egg may be in my future this morning... or maybe not. Note that the "center" of Subtropical Storm Alberto is shown below.
Big kudos to the NHC for NOT changing Alberto to a Tropical Storm as it is not a tropical storm but it is a very strong Subtropical Storm. And, Subtropical Storms deserve respect on their own merit not as an asterisk in the transition process to a Tropical Storm. A Subtropical Storm IS a STORM and it's not like Pre Season football vs Prime Time Monday Night Football. Both contain their own inherent dangers and it's good to give warning to people in their path as they move en masse on their way to giving multiple places across a wide geographic area misery. Ironically a Subtropical Storm can affect more people than a small Tropical Storm or even a small, dry Cat 1 Hurricane that is wound up tight and impacts a small area at landfall. Look at the immensity of moisture below and understand the problems the NHC and the NWS have been dealing with trying to warn people about the possible dangers coming their way.
The moisture down below steals your attention right?
Alberto below.
Not much deep convection.
Alberto has the lowest pressure of ANY named storm in the Month of May since 1972. There was a Subtropical Storm in 1972 and then there was Agnes. Keep that in mind for future reference. So looking at the radar imagery let's do this again.
Above is the weather mass of Alberto.
Below is the "center" of Alberto
Note a band of yellow is forming.
Close to the center.
Due South of A-Cola.
This is where Alberto will make landfall.
Again up close.
Better image below.
Within those small bands are dangers.
The danger of tornadoes is present today.
All day the tornado threat will remain.
Rip Tides.
Down near SE Florida...
That's a lot of rain. Mucho Moisture!
So there are 2 issues here. One is this is almost a joke in the minute way we are covering it and hearing about it online as well as the famous Weather Channel. The real story is going to be down the road as all this tropical moisture that has been pulling together for well over a week moves North into the towns, hills, Appalachia, the Great Lakes and do not forget Canada. And, I really hope there is no widespread flooding that can often occur anywhere and everywhere Alberto goes. When Subtropical Storms or early June hurricanes move inland flooding is always a problem; that is what occurred after Hurricane Agnes made landfall in 1972. At least now we are better at seeing the potential for this to happen and to warn people in it's path that this could occur. There is beach erosion on the East Coast of Florida and even in North Carolina far from any path the "center" will take we have a Flash Flood Watch. Why? Moisture... tons and tons of tropical moisture. Watch the orange on the loop above ooze up, up and move into most of the SE. And, notice that a lot of it also hangs back IN the tropics. Much to think on. Cuba is getting nailed currently by the weather that is not going on in the Florida Panhandle. However, the Panhandle is getting weather, high tides, dangerous surf and everyone needs to hunker down and wait it out and then wait to see what will happen to Alberto's moisture as it moves inland over the Eastern US and Canada.
In November I finally spent some time on the Florida Panhandle at the beautiful beaches there. I've always wanted to see them up close but they are far from South Florida. Judah's father got remarried in a small, quiet beach wedding held at sunset on St. George Island. It's beautiful there though it reminds me more of the NC beaches than your typical Florida beach. The area is prone to flooding and most of the homes are built up on stilts. We had the top floor of a beach house that seemed at least four stories high and looked out across the very beautiful island. My Grandmother used to go to the Apalachicola Bay are when she was young visiting her older sister often. Grandma Mary waxed poetic on how beautiful the beaches were there. There was no big beautiful bridge they boated out to the beaches often when they went to the beach.... as they owned shade tobacco plantations up in nearby Quincy Florida. They were really large farms, but Grandma Mary being Grandma called them "shade tobacco plantations" so I'll go with it for her sake. Now I'm a grandma :) and I'll call it anything I want when I'm talking to Judah ;)
Judah and me in November.
Judah and his new Stepmother.
That's my granddaughter Olivia Eden in her tummy.
Life goes on.
Judah grew just fine even if...
...he rarely ever ate more than a half an egg.
Really all barrier islands, flat sandy beaches and beautiful sunsets. Some pictures from November to show you the beauty of life and the beach. Give me a beach to walk on barefoot and I'm happy.
This is my blog and it's as much about my life as it is Hurricane Season and am not the NHC nor am I writing you this from TWC though the story goes I was conceived in Atlanta where my parents lived briefly before moving back to Miami. I'm tired of discussing Alberto, however I do love watching Jim Cantore talk while on the beach with beautiful gray skies and foamy surf behind him. It's a tropical event. I'm no longer going to slice and dice Alberto but enjoy the show on TV and really hope that there is no massive flooding event once Alberto moves inland and up into the heart of the the East Coast. Yesterday's horrific flash flood in Ellicott City Maryland. I think we have said enough about the details of Alberto and now we need to watch it all play out and see what happens. In truth Ellicott City Maryland is the real story today.
Remember I said I was worried about inland flooding from all this tropical moisture being carried with Subtropical Storm Alberto? It's a big concern and there are many villages, towns and cities in it's path. You add the elevation of Appalachia and you have a potential problem. Areas in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina that are already soaked from what has been a wet few weeks are especially prone to flooding as there is a limit as to how much water the red clay soil of the South can hold. With regard to Ellicott City that is a blog for another day. As someone who studied geology and loves rocks as much as Steve in What's Up Doc did I'm curious on the geological problems Ellicott City has in that it is a granite valley near a river is prone to flooding. But why now the last two years did it suffer back to back "once in 2,000 year floods?" Did any construction nearby somehow change the nature of the flooding patterns or shake something up? It's hard to believe that's a coincidence or that evil forces dislike the beautiful old town where many in Baltimore love to drive out to for good food in a quaint pretty environment. Something there doesn't make sense. But the moisture.......oh the moisture has been in place and the way it was last week in Raleigh when we had I believe 6 inches in 2 hours there was flooding in all the usual places that flood. Anywhere you have hills you have water that flows downstream.
So let's look at 1972 that was in general a very good year in most ways. Jimmy Buffett would play at THE FLICK near the UM when in Miami. Palm trees swayed, hurricanes went elsewhere and the construction industry responded by building on every possible empty lot they could find. It was before the Cocaine Cowboys and the Miami Dolphins were a winning team that we thought would never lose again. I was busy getting ready to go to a prom at the Playboy Plaza and there were no hurricanes threatening Miami in late May or early June though we had a Tropical Depression Dawn in September before going to becoming a wandering, looping Hurricane.
But 1972 did cause flooding "Up North" after Hurricane Agnes made landfall very close to where Alberto is trying to make landfall now. It just wasn't on my particular radar that year. Alberto is not as strong wind wise, however remember the constant discussion of the "lowest barometric pressure of any named storm in May since 1972" and you wonder how this will play out over the next week.
Very wet period and flooding.
And then came Agnes.
Note the name Subtropical Storm Alpha was applied looking back at what was obviously a Subtropical Storm but we were not naming them yet. This is the environment that Hurricane Agnes entered. Think of Agnes and Subtropical Storm Alpha like an act at THE FLICK in that I believe "Uncle Dirty" was the real lead act but a young troubadour named Jimmy Buffett stole the show performing for a crowd of people who loved him. Maybe it was the other way around. Who knows I was with a cute guy home from college and the music was good and I barely remember hearing anything about Hurricane Agnes. If you Google Hurricane Agnes this is what you find..........
Note Florida is listed at the bottom of searches.
We forget often about Hurricane Agnes.
Headlines above from 1972
Ellicott City 2018
Let's hope this doesn't play out the same way.
Different set up. Different storm.
Same moisture moving far inland.
A current look at Alberto
Where does all that moisture go?
What will be the final ending of Alberto?
Time will tell.
Look down below into the Caribbean.
At the base of the moisture related to Alberto.
Or trying to feed Alberto...
The models in general did a crappy job with Alberto and I don't blame them. There aren't many historic correlating systems like him and it's been an odd May weather wise as we went from a long, long Winter into an early Summer. My first thought on Alberto watching the Water Vapor Loop was that it would make landfall around St. Georges Island and Carrabelle. Then I told myself it was just because I had recently been there but really that was what the Water Vapor Loop showed. Then the models began having it intensify into a Tropical Storm near hurricane strength and lunge left towards Louisiana which I knew wasn't happening so I moved my best guest further West towards Mobile Bay. Again it really doesn't matter who gets the landfall, because everyone will get the rain and high surf. I wonder whether there is some correlation between 1972 and 2018 weather wise or it's just a coincidence? I'll wonder on it another day. In Raleigh the brilliant blue skies we had yesterday have become gray, gauzy, white, milky skies. Rain is moving in on the radar. It's Monday Memorial Day Weekend and we are on holiday time as my husband is home from work and we have places to go and things to do. I also have to mentally at least pack for Miami.
Stay tuned. Listen to a good tune. Enjoy what you can from this Memorial Day Weekend and remember to remember those who gave their lives for this country as this is really what Memorial Day Weekend is supposed to be about. In Miami it's just another 3 day weekend, but up North and in a good part of the South it's the official start of Summer.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... a song that Jimmy Buffett sang at THE FLICK back when...
It's a holiday and not proofing this ten times as I imagine few are home reading blogs today so ...why should I?
Hurricane History - Early Season Gulf of Mexico Storms - Subtropical Storms - Alberto in Historical Perspective.
Alberto.
Looking more tropical than yesterday.
Navy Cone from NRL site.
Note it shows the track so far.
Models as of late Saturday Night.
NAM (for fun)
GFS
EURO
Note these models have been changing SLIGHTLY all day in correlation with the actual movement or reformation of the center of Alberto. Alberto had several centers and the NHC was forced all day to try and play keep up with the ebb and flow of energy from one center to another until they relocated Alberto to it's new position near the stronger center. This is very common with storms such as Alberto in this part of the Gulf of Mexico. If they do not come into the GOM like a bull charging towards the Louisiana coast but are trying to form with early season shear and dry air over marginal water the formation process is slow, ugly yet productive. It usually produces a storm in the 50 to 60 MPH range that makes landfall sooner rather than later; on rare occasions they suddenly strengthen to hurricane force. There were several models earlier that showed that possibility so again they erred on the side of caution and that's a good thing. In today's fast paced world people are alerted immediately of changes in forecasts. The 3 models shown above all have the same basic destination somewhere near Destin Florida ... some further West towards Mobile Bay and others closer to Pensacola Bay with a few outliers further East. Currently Alberto is moving NNE but he is forecast to swing back some towards the left and it's hard to say exactly which beach gets his participation on Memorial Day Weekend. Add in the actual angle of the coast on the Panhandle and every degree can mean a big difference down the road.
The point of this post is to take a look at some Hurricane History and to see how Alberto compares and contrasts to similar storms. I looked at the first storm of the season in years that had Tropical Storms or Hurricanes that approached this part of the coast from Mobile Bay to the Big Bend of Florida. Granted most the storms were later in the year even though they were the first storm of the year. Adding in Earl as an Extra Credit sort of storm as he was one of the first storms that I can remember that was named when the presentation looked so bad and that had more multiple center's then Alberto.
I'm offline on Saturday as I keep the Jewish Sabbath in my own way and take a break from trying to keep up with Twitter, models, satellite imagery and updating the blog as well as just the every day hustle and bustle of life; it works for me. One of the things I enjoy is that I have time to think and go through some of the many books I have on hurricane history as well as history of Florida and it's many cities in general. My specialty is history and specifically Hurricane History. There is something different about going through a book, holding it and turning the pages; turning back and forth, feeling the pages between your fingers and not being distracted by Tweeting or being on WhatsApp or SnapChat or getting a phone call from one my kids asking why I didn't respond to a WhatsApp message. Holding a book on Florida Hurricanes or a compilation of Hurricane Historic Tracks and being in a bubble where no one is going to disturb you is heaven like in ways.
Before I show the years with similar storms may I add that back when in the not so distant past we did not name Subtropical Storms and it took more than a modeling consensus to upgrade a tropical disturbance the way Alberto was upgraded suddenly Friday morning by the NHC. I get it in that it's a holiday weekend, people are headed for the beach in many instances storms such as this one have historical presidents and have been known to spin up fast just as they make landfall. Several years back I went to a program in Miami at a AMS meeting for a presentation where Bill Read would be as he was the new Director at the Hurricane Center. I was early and ended up setting up the food with Neal Dorst and while there I got into an interesting conversation with Bill Read. As he was from that neck of the woods most familiar with those GOM Hurricanes I barely paid attention to growing up in Miami he gave me a different perspective. In reality there is not enough time to properly warn small beach towns along the long coast of the Central Gulf of Mexico to the Panhandle of Florida the way there is time to warn Miami and Key West of an approaching CV Hurricane. Long tracking Hurricanes spend days moving towards our side of the world. In places along the Texas coast and the Panhandle of Florida a weak, disorganized system with multiple centers can suddenly wrap up, just off shore over very warm water and there is little time to warn the local population. Alberto is a case in point and an illustration of why the NHC has upped their game plan when dealing with such systems especially on a 3 day Memorial Day Weekend.
1901 shown above.
Mid June.
1902 shown below.
Mid June.
Deja Vu back to back landfalls.
1919
1919 would be a good analog storm if we pretended Alberto JUST formed where it is now. Slightly different orientation but I'm looking at landfall location and again this was the first storm in early July of the 1919 Hurricane Season.
Late May 1953
Now that's a Looper.
The always memorable Hurricane Alma
1966
1994 Alberto.
Almost the same track.
What is in a name really?
Early in Sept 1998
Earl Above.
Alberto Below.
Earl was one of the first storms that I remember such discussion, out right slander and accusations leveled at the NHC for upgrading what seemed to be a big, amorphous mess with too many multiple centers to count. Earl took it's time forming, later in the year in September, in the same way that Alberto is doing. Earl was a September storm with much warmer water and different steering currents, however they both had multiple centers and no real clarity as far a center of circulation. There have been many more since Earl but Earl always stands out in my mind. Being September Earl actually reached Hurricane Status (Cat 2) without a clear cut eye or picture perfect structure at any time, yet it was a Hurricane and caused problems, 3 people died in connection with Hurricane Earl.
The truth is the Hurricane History books are filled with complex systems such as Alberto that while not pretty carried with them the inherent dangers of a property destruction, beach erosion and worst of all loss of life. In 1972 Hurricane Agnes an early season storm ended up causing one of the worst floods in our history as the immense amount of moisture got pulled North across a good part of the Eastern US.
There has been an ongoing reanalysis of past hurricane seasons where storms are sometimes added in or deleted with knowledge we have now to try and get the best accuracy we can for analog storms and history we can learn from when forecasting today's storms and future storms. You can Google a bit and look for whatever years you are most interested in. Personally, I'm interested in the 1835 Hurricane that did epic damage to the Miami shoreline, mangroves and was said to be responsible for Norris Cut near Virginia Key near where the HRD building is and other related NOAA offices are as well as where I heard Dr. Bill Read and William Gray speak often. I miss Bill Gray; we all miss him. There was no one like him. You can read back to my early days of blogging where I was mostly writing for myself and a few close friends.
I want more information on the 1835 Hurricane. Today Miami has expanded it's business and economic base to the South Side of the Miami River and the area most severely impacted by the 1835 Hurricane that being a direct hit from the South near the Miami River and South Bayshore Drive would deal a severe blow to Miami and endanger way more people than were there in 1835 during the Seminole Indian Wars.
Interesting day looking through my Hurricane Stuff.
While I was sitting home reading through my old Hurricane Books and various Hurricane trivial things others were doing this online as they sifted through history looking for analog storms to Alberto. You can see how on the money Anthony Siciliano @AMSweather on Twitter was pointing to the recent Tropical Storm Colin in 2016 and Barry on 2007. Compare and contrast is what we do when studying hurricanes from the past with storms of the present. Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. We have learned so much and our models have gotten way better than when they were originally sure a weak Andrew was going to catch the weak late August cold front in 1992 and head away from South Florida. But as good as we get, we learn from out mistakes and we get better and we keep trying to get to the point where people do not die in hurricanes or tropical storms on Memorial Day Weekend and have the most time available to them to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... A point of reference here regarding Hurricane Alma is that after Miami dealt with Hurricane Donna in 1960 and again in 1964 we had Cleo and then in 1965 we had Betsy.... to a small obsessed student of weather it seemed Miami would get a hurricane every year. That's not how it works and alas Alma got away. I was a very little girl who was very annoyed that we were not getting Alma. I know kids... My father tried to cheer me up and told me he'd take me to the Drive In to see a new movie he thought I'd like. I liked Haley Mills and she was in a movie called The Trouble with Angels. I think he wanted to go more than I did and probably wanted any excuse to get out of the house. My mother was in prime "Hurricane Mode" and they got into a big fight and he insisted I'd be fine just a few blocks from the house at the local Drive In Movie Theater. For the younger set that's like sitting out in your car watching a movie on Netflix. I digress. The point is that I was very excited we were going to the movies in a Hurricane ... I think we had a Tropical Storm Watch or earlier in the day we may have had a Tropical Storm Warning. This was as close to changing a storm as I was getting at that age. I don't remember much about the movie to be honest, but I remember watching THROUGH REALLY HEAVY SHEETS OF RAIN and the tall Australian Pine Trees swaying with the wind. Who cares if we could barely see the screen or the sound from the speaker was crappy? I was out in stormy conditions watching a movie and whatever effects we were getting from strong feeder bands. Eventually a few years later I watched it on TV and saw the parts I must have missed or maybe I was watching the pine trees sway and sheets of rain go flying sideways past the windshield of our car.
Funny I don't remember this scene... you'd think they'd have had a better trailer. But oh I remember the rain and the wind, it was wonderful!
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
