I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

  

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

Remnants of Alberto Cause Flash Floods, Mudslides and Road Closures

Regarding the remnants of Alberto.

Alberto went North.

Carrying much moisture with it.

And as always rain fell far to the right of his track.

Road closures from mudslides happened.

It's not uncommon for Appalachia to have this problem.

Especially when a tropical system or it's remnants arrive.

It's an area prone to flash floods.

Due to elevation obviously.

Remnants of Hugo caused problems.

Even weak Alberto is causing problems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachia

It's like a country within a country.

Appalachia.

I love to call NC Eastern Tennessee.

Or... Tennessee's coast.

And down in the Caribbean.

There is still moisture flowing North.

Much moisture.

Any old fronts going flat will cause possible problems.

Keeping this short and keeping it sweet today as I'm packing and on the road pretty much Southbound. For what it's worth and not sure what that really means but it's a phrase that keeps coming to mind.. I will be in Miami for the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season; the official start but really that date has been mitigated by the early appearance of Earl. There is discussion that something may develop down below in the Caribbean and the rest of the chatter is about a system forming off the SE Coast that will slide up off shore and go where we aren't sure yet. Basically we aren't sure because it has not formed. Always wait to forecast storms until at least their early embryonic presence is noticeable on satellite imagery and on showing up on multiple runs of the EURO.   Hang in there and get whatever hurricane supplies you will need to get through the 2018 Hurricane Season because I think you may need them and the GOM coastline and Mid Atlantic is more at risk this year for several reasons. I can go into those reasons on June 1st so stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps My father who was a fan of a local rock station in Miami kept listening when they switched over to Country in the early 1980s and became a massive fan of Willie Nelson. I was listening to Willie in LA on old cassette tapes bought at Radio Shack with his most famous early hits. So it was amusing that we were living on separate coasts both listening to Willie. He liked the Beatles before I did. In retrospect my father kept on top of music trends quietly and wasn't afraid to try new music. Always think of him when I him when I hear this song. Also because I cried in the scene when Loretta Lynn said goodbye to her father when she went West with her husband in Coal Miner's Daughter and he suggested to her he might not see her again as she was moving away. Luckily I saw my father again and eventually moved back to Florida and my older kids got to know him pretty well. They were both scruffy and had much in common in ways. So I'm on the road again... to see my kids and stepdaughter and my best friends and feel the tropics up close and personal as the Hurricane Season begins!