Updated 5 PM. Subtropical Depression Andrea & NHC Break Up - Severe Weather Continues with Flash Flooding on the Plains. Other Regions to Watch in the Tropics....

Not sure what we are calling it.... 

Post Tropical Cyclone?

Funny part is it doesn't look much different.

Note the new discussion mentions the Upper Level Low.

It mentions the ULL in the way that I did earlier this morning.

The real culprit here is shear and the ULL.

Yeah.... it's weaker.

Signature looks not as strong but closed.

The shear to the North is evident.

The ULL moving to the West is evident.

And even the NHC says the ULL is the dominant feature.

Note below the remnants of Andrea are marked....

Far to the North of the swirl that looks like Andrea.

Ex Andrea.

Seems the NHC broke up with Andrea.

It was a fast, short, bad relationship.

It served it's purpose I suppose ... 

Next name on the list is Barry.

I knew a boy named Barry once....

...he was cute. 

Good dancer.

6th or 7th grade.

I digress....

There really isn't much to say here.

Except that if there is no real convection left...

..and no real center left.

Then it would seem to me that the convection ...

...associated with the system once known as Andrea remains.

The Upper Level Low is moving slowly West.

Does the moisture still fly off with the "front" ??

Or .... ??? linger around longer.

So many questions so little time.

We will see soon enough.

Elsewhere there are tornadoes, flash floods and misery.

You don't need a hurricane for misery.

Keep watching to see what will be...

Not expecting anything immediately but who knows.

A week ago the NHC insisted nothing was forming.

Then they went from 70% to ANDREA

Stay tuned.... 

Barry is the next name.

He's out there somewhere.

Hopefully with a better presentation.

Til then give to the Red Cross.

Or give another reliable charity in the area.

The people being plagued with floods will need help.

https://www.redcross.org/

And continue reading please there are many tropical thoughts.

Down past the 5 AM advisories.

Areas I'm watching for future development.

I'm going to keep this simple today and update later if necessary. Subtropical Storm Andrea is doing so far what was expected of her by forecasters at the NHC. A look at Earthnull from yesterday at this time compared to this morning shows how Andrea developed.

Before above.

This morning below.

That's a dramatic difference in 24 hours.

And while she doesn't show up well on the satellite image.

You can see down through her on this site and see the winds.

Going wider I want to point out a feature.

Between the coast of Florida and Andrea...

If you look closely you can see the mid to upper level low.

You can also see the shear to her NW.

This squeeze play has been going on for a while.

Yet she developed.

Partially ventilated by the ULL in the right location.

Marginal warm water temperatures.

Now let's look at the "cold front"

I wouldn't call it a "cold front" as much as a frontal boundary.

That wiggles around and then high pressure builds in again.

Also note the continuance of severe weather on the Plains.

There's an old chart that was one of the first wind charts.

My son when he was at Iowa State helped create this site.

It was actually an "art" site using meteorology as a base.

http://hint.fm/wind/

It's interactive.

Play with it... it's fun.

Once someone does something...

..... everyone copies and improves it.

But it shows the scope of the Low over the Plains.

Another view of the ongoing severe weather event.

Back to the tropics.

You can see both systems.

Remember it's a subtropical because of it's presentation.

And it's relationship to the secondary low I mentioned.

Note there will be serious flooding situations today ...

... flooding across the Mississippi River area.

And that's an area that doesn't need more rain.

It will also continue to rain in Texas and Oklahoma.

And when I say flooding I mean Flash Flooding.

And five days worth of flooding rains are possible.

Another area I want to point out is in the SW Carib.

There has been a constant increase in convection there.

Some models a while back showed development in that area.

The models went a little too Gonzo over development.

We discount models that show storms not in line with Climo.

But it's good to remember they were showing development.

Any area in that area that moves North will move into warm water.

And from the sites shown below the water is warming up.

As we move deeper into May and into June this concerns me.

This site is shown on www.spaghettimodels.com

If shear relaxes there we could have a problem.

As some of those crazy models implied.

And some of us are still watching that area.

Speaking of crazy models.

Check a few of those Andrea models.

Hmnnnn ....

The good news is most of them do go ENE.

What are the other lost models seeing?

Andrea is expected to go out to sea.

But there are other fish in the sea as well.

I'll be back later today as needed.

Remember weather is relative.

It's all a matter of perspective.

If your town got slammed by a tornado last night...

...the hyped outbreak materialized and messed you up badly.

If it's 90 degrees in the shade and it goes down to 88...

I guess it cooled off......

It's not such a strong cold front.

But the shear and the interaction with the Mid Level Low.

(Yeah it was Upper Level now it's more Mid Level)

Will steal the convection from Andrea...

..and Andrea will weaken as expected.

Keep watching.

Remember the big swirl you see here is not Andrea.

It's the Upper Mid Level Low...

When an ULL is SW of a developing tropical cyclone ....

...it helps ventilate it some.

Change the location a bit and it can help destroy it.

Let's look at a shear map.

And leaving you with a site you can play with if bored today.

Current image.

Last night it was crazy.

Turn the sound up.

Enjoy...

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

Have a great day.

Stay safe if you are under the gun weather wise....

... keep an eye on the tropics if you live in FL or along the GOM.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

(yeah I'm that person)

:)

I40 Winter Storm.... From TX/OK to NC Coast ...the Storm Does a Road Trip East Bound. Who Gets What? No One is Sure....

The players are visible on the loop above.

Note everything is East Bound....

High pressure pushing down from the North

Moisture piling in from the South.

And the Road Map is along Interstate 40.

I40 goes from NC to California.

Though in NC it's a major artery West to East.

Or East to West depending where you're going.

Takes a little dip down towards the SE to Wilmington.

This was the road of the North Carolina.

If you drove up to the mountains....

..... or you drove down to the sea.

Old timers know this road like the back of their hand.

It cuts straight across Oklahoma like a Mason Dixie Line.

Further to the North it's more like Kansas.

Further to the South it's more like Texas.

Arkansas.... Tennessee 

Then the beautiful North Carolina highlands.

The map above doesn't do the view justice but....

...it gets you where you are going.

A nice video shows you the view well ....

...way better than I can tell ya

Note the elevation...

(give it a few minutes to get going)

Love movies that show maps....

This picture shows you the story here...

Elevation!

Mountains...

The further up in elevation....

...the more chance you get of snow!

www.spaghettimodels.com

Above is a 5 day forecast for snow.

I added the 24 hour one in today.

Compare and contrast.

Note two things....

Snow accumulations aren't high further West.

But as it crosses the mountains...snow.

Snow forecast like the red spot on Jupiter over NC

But who gets exactly what?

Still hard to tell.

Evolves in real time.

Snow storms are wonderfully hard to forecast.

A Cape Verde Hurricane is way easier.

Those are some big mountains.

They could get a big snow storm.

It's also possible the big snow totals are to the East.

Winston Salem or Greensboro could get a lot.

Raleigh? Really no one is sure.

No one here ever is..

I show Raleigh as it's an iffy area.

And I live here.

Charlotte also is iffy as to the exact impact.

NWS above.

Accuweather below.

Waiting to see what will happen.

Days ago I posted this map on Twitter

What I was pointing out was the actual snow...

...and the system forming off the coast.

The low tightening up.

Few were talking on that.

DaBuh watches surf and weather.

He saw it coming and posted this today.

See it IS about the Low in the GOM.

Sitting near where Michael made landfall.

Has that been a magnet spot this year or what?

They are getting slammed with rain along the coast...

...and the winter storm to the North.

I10 gets rain.

I40 gets winter weather of some sort...

Still evolving in real time.

As the moisture in the GOM feeds the storm.

As the storm is moving East.

So many moving parts.

Showing these model pages from www.windy.com

Lot's of layers to play with there.

Saturday on the EURO...

Moisture moving in from the GOM.

Winter Weather moving in...

Over the mountains....

filling in the Foothills.

Piedmont Crescent gets a winter storm.

Yesterday's post explains the Piedmont Crescent.

Charlotte to Raleigh.

Check that post out later ..

Euro shows snow over NC.

Winter weather of various types.

Snow. Sleet. Freezing Rain maybe..

Below on  Sunday on the GFS moisture feeds in..

Snow takes a road trip on I40 East.

Snow!

Note the GFS has snow on Monday for Raleigh.

  

Much aligned GFS shown above.

See the snow over NC?

See the storm forming off the coast?

Could the snow really stop at the VA border?

Just a model..

Let's talk about the NAM.

Adding this in while editing.

Their discussion mirrors my thoughts.

And they ate two of the best especially in NC.

I'm ending this model discussion with the NAM.

Short term modeling.

Great image below.

Shows the players.

Note the moisture feed coming in from the GOM.

This is what Dabuh is watching.

Storm forming OFF the coast.

Transfer of energy.

Snow and Wintry Mix over Carolinas.

This is our end game.

How close to the coast will winter weather get?

Could Wilmington and New Bern see snow flakes?

Flurries falling?

Will this become an ICE STORM not a Snow storm?

That possibility is there for some...

TWC below....

Nice boots.

Note they say "Snow and Ice"

What is the bottom line here?

Travel will be treacherous on I40

Travel across parts of the South is a problem.

Whether you are driving from Atlanta to Charlotte..

....or Atlanta to Raleigh.

Maybe just don't.

Hunker down if you can.

Ride this out where you are...

Flights will be cancelled if you are flying..

Carefully consider your options if you are traveling.

I'm not traveling.

I'm hunkering down and waiting to see what I get.

I'll update at the top later today.

When the next models come in...

...and after we see the storm as it's evolving.

After I go shopping while I can...

Bread, Eggs, Coca Cola.

Still have water from Hurricane Season ;)

So far it slammed California with rain and mud.

Doing Texas from Amarillo to Lubbock ...

It's flirting with Oklahoma.

Stay tuned.

Winter Storms form and evolve in real time.

No real cones....

....just lots of hype and wishing.

Wishing it doesn't snow...

and wishing it snows and snows.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Leaving this here. I have a friend who loves Asheville, loves snow and loves the piano.

I suppose if you watch this video you can understand why....   hoping to see some in Raleigh.

Severe Weather, Tropical Moisture in Caribbean. Life Threatening Flooding, Mudslides and Twisters. It's May... Anniversary Mt. St. Helens. BOOM!

Lead Weather Story Today

Warnings up for tornado weather.

Today into tomorrow big threat.

Tonight, night wrapped tornadoes.

Severe Weather for sure...

Sneaky, missiles of death and destruction?

Excellent article below on Elk City Tornado.

http://kfor.com/2017/05/17/held-on-as-tight-as-he-could-oklahoma-family-recalls-moment-elk-city-tornado-hit-their-home/

Fronts.

Trofs.

Frontal Boundaries.

So many words, names we use to describe the same basic weather feature. It's in this year to say DRY LINE (those who watch the movie Twister weekly know what that is) as we used Fire Hose a few years back incessantly. Much like the blast of water in the form of heavy rain that came with that set up the word was tossed about like some family's trailer in the wind on the plains. Nice places to live in unless a Finger of God Twister comes down and picks yours up and tosses it somewhere else. 

Yeah, that happened 37 years ago today.

Life is like that whether you live on the plains or at the beach. Today is the anniversary of Mt. St. Helens that rearranged the landscape and the air people breathed in a place that was usually filled with pristine air and panoramic views of a natural paradise. Mind you paradise for you and paradise for me may be two different things. I like the ocean, the moving water, the wind and rivers that end at the ocean. Some people love the view from the mountains, the air, the panorama ...the feeling of standing on top of the world closer to God. Yet I find God at a sunrise at the beach. Then there are places that have both such as Santa Barbara or La Jolla in California. 

A picture I took Monday Morning.

Waiting for that moment when the sun crosses the horizon.

Mother Nature finds you where ever you are... one way or the other. She's kind of like a Blondie, out there somewhere waiting to come and rearrange your world. And, then... life goes on. That's the reality of life. The coast of Carolina dealt with flooding rains and storm surge from Hurricane Matthew last year and except for a few signs not repaired it's beautiful there. Inland flooding creates a longer drama that is harder to recover from ironically though we think of landfall as being the worst a hurricane can do to us... Not true. Most of the people who died from Hurricane Mitch died from mudslides after it was downgraded to a Tropical Storm far inland, not at landfall.

I really didn't mean this to be so dower but the forecasts for today's tornado out break have been pretty dower and depressing. Again it's a matter of perspective as for young chasers and meteorology students who long to see their first tornado ...they may get lucky today.

That same system dumped snow out west late in May or I guess this is still the middle of May. Moving East, dipping down as warm tropical moisture from the GOM sucks up into the system, the clash of different air. You know it's sort of like sexual energy. Going to try not to wander too far from the topic this morning but they do say opposites attract. Sometimes someone you have much in common with and like and is a nice sort of guy or gal gets away from you and you wish them well and hope they find the right person. I've had some boyfriends like that over time, good guys .. good men... nice, it didn't work out. And then there's one that gets under your skin as you have so much in common and so much you don't and there is this yin yang, push me pull me energy that makes it hard for you to forget them. 

Love/Hate relationships are like that and yet usually the love outweighs the "oh my God he makes me so crazy" or maybe some people like being crazy? Weather people are like that. We love weather and we love wild weather and yet we hate the pain they bring, the drama they dump down onto good people in their path. And, yet "oh my God look at that sky" as line of storms is moving fast at you with the air beginning to change, the wind blow and you try to go with the flow and watch it evolve while trying to think as a scientist. Right brain, left brain all clashing about inside you at that wild moment. And whether you are out on the plains or out in Florida Bay in the Everglades it looks the same, feels the same.

Pick your poison or your pleasure.

And down in the tropics being ignored...

Our Caribbean Blob of Convection.

Note the energy oozing about.

Not organized.

Life threatening flooding still.

NHC kind of blinked in that they spoke on it today.

Well in their way. 

Water Vapor Loop

The irony is that though this will most likely fade away.

Models play with another system down the tropical road.

Models are like girls looking for fun.

They like to play.

They tease. It's true.

They are not always consistent in the long term.

My father always said..

"easier to bet on horses than Jai Alai players"

But he so loved watching Jai Alai.

So stay tuned.

If you live in the path of severe weather.

Over the next two days.

http://www.weather.gov/

Check your weather often.

Whether a tornado forms today or not.

A hurricane will form later this year.

Be prepared.

#hurricanestrong Google that Hashtag.

Nuff Said.

Have a good day... 

Smile...

It's 2017 "it's all good!!

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow on me at @bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... It's not the 80s in LA where I was losing my mind ;)
No tropical meteorology only geology... 

And Dr George...

...and Boy George!