Updated 5 PM. Subtropical Depression Andrea & NHC Break Up - Severe Weather Continues with Flash Flooding on the Plains. Other Regions to Watch in the Tropics....

Not sure what we are calling it.... 

Post Tropical Cyclone?

Funny part is it doesn't look much different.

Note the new discussion mentions the Upper Level Low.

It mentions the ULL in the way that I did earlier this morning.

The real culprit here is shear and the ULL.

Yeah.... it's weaker.

Signature looks not as strong but closed.

The shear to the North is evident.

The ULL moving to the West is evident.

And even the NHC says the ULL is the dominant feature.

Note below the remnants of Andrea are marked....

Far to the North of the swirl that looks like Andrea.

Ex Andrea.

Seems the NHC broke up with Andrea.

It was a fast, short, bad relationship.

It served it's purpose I suppose ... 

Next name on the list is Barry.

I knew a boy named Barry once....

...he was cute. 

Good dancer.

6th or 7th grade.

I digress....

There really isn't much to say here.

Except that if there is no real convection left...

..and no real center left.

Then it would seem to me that the convection ...

...associated with the system once known as Andrea remains.

The Upper Level Low is moving slowly West.

Does the moisture still fly off with the "front" ??

Or .... ??? linger around longer.

So many questions so little time.

We will see soon enough.

Elsewhere there are tornadoes, flash floods and misery.

You don't need a hurricane for misery.

Keep watching to see what will be...

Not expecting anything immediately but who knows.

A week ago the NHC insisted nothing was forming.

Then they went from 70% to ANDREA

Stay tuned.... 

Barry is the next name.

He's out there somewhere.

Hopefully with a better presentation.

Til then give to the Red Cross.

Or give another reliable charity in the area.

The people being plagued with floods will need help.

https://www.redcross.org/

And continue reading please there are many tropical thoughts.

Down past the 5 AM advisories.

Areas I'm watching for future development.

I'm going to keep this simple today and update later if necessary. Subtropical Storm Andrea is doing so far what was expected of her by forecasters at the NHC. A look at Earthnull from yesterday at this time compared to this morning shows how Andrea developed.

Before above.

This morning below.

That's a dramatic difference in 24 hours.

And while she doesn't show up well on the satellite image.

You can see down through her on this site and see the winds.

Going wider I want to point out a feature.

Between the coast of Florida and Andrea...

If you look closely you can see the mid to upper level low.

You can also see the shear to her NW.

This squeeze play has been going on for a while.

Yet she developed.

Partially ventilated by the ULL in the right location.

Marginal warm water temperatures.

Now let's look at the "cold front"

I wouldn't call it a "cold front" as much as a frontal boundary.

That wiggles around and then high pressure builds in again.

Also note the continuance of severe weather on the Plains.

There's an old chart that was one of the first wind charts.

My son when he was at Iowa State helped create this site.

It was actually an "art" site using meteorology as a base.

http://hint.fm/wind/

It's interactive.

Play with it... it's fun.

Once someone does something...

..... everyone copies and improves it.

But it shows the scope of the Low over the Plains.

Another view of the ongoing severe weather event.

Back to the tropics.

You can see both systems.

Remember it's a subtropical because of it's presentation.

And it's relationship to the secondary low I mentioned.

Note there will be serious flooding situations today ...

... flooding across the Mississippi River area.

And that's an area that doesn't need more rain.

It will also continue to rain in Texas and Oklahoma.

And when I say flooding I mean Flash Flooding.

And five days worth of flooding rains are possible.

Another area I want to point out is in the SW Carib.

There has been a constant increase in convection there.

Some models a while back showed development in that area.

The models went a little too Gonzo over development.

We discount models that show storms not in line with Climo.

But it's good to remember they were showing development.

Any area in that area that moves North will move into warm water.

And from the sites shown below the water is warming up.

As we move deeper into May and into June this concerns me.

This site is shown on www.spaghettimodels.com

If shear relaxes there we could have a problem.

As some of those crazy models implied.

And some of us are still watching that area.

Speaking of crazy models.

Check a few of those Andrea models.

Hmnnnn ....

The good news is most of them do go ENE.

What are the other lost models seeing?

Andrea is expected to go out to sea.

But there are other fish in the sea as well.

I'll be back later today as needed.

Remember weather is relative.

It's all a matter of perspective.

If your town got slammed by a tornado last night...

...the hyped outbreak materialized and messed you up badly.

If it's 90 degrees in the shade and it goes down to 88...

I guess it cooled off......

It's not such a strong cold front.

But the shear and the interaction with the Mid Level Low.

(Yeah it was Upper Level now it's more Mid Level)

Will steal the convection from Andrea...

..and Andrea will weaken as expected.

Keep watching.

Remember the big swirl you see here is not Andrea.

It's the Upper Mid Level Low...

When an ULL is SW of a developing tropical cyclone ....

...it helps ventilate it some.

Change the location a bit and it can help destroy it.

Let's look at a shear map.

And leaving you with a site you can play with if bored today.

Current image.

Last night it was crazy.

Turn the sound up.

Enjoy...

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30

Have a great day.

Stay safe if you are under the gun weather wise....

... keep an eye on the tropics if you live in FL or along the GOM.

Besos Bobbistorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

(yeah I'm that person)

:)

State of the Tropics in the Atlantic Basin Monday Morning While Hurricane Dora Dances In the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Dora is in the Epac moving WNW out to sea. Pretty hurricane and not expected to a problem for anyone and of course no one is really paying attention. Like in Real Estate it's all about location and Dora is in the wrong location for Atlantic Basin people. If we had a hurricane in the Atlantic moving WNW at 13 mph the islands might be in it's way. Just the way of the world in that we tend to ignore the hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific while counting 5, 6, 7 days until our side of the world becomes active again.

Pretty quiet on our side of the world.

There is some cloud clutter in the areas known to show June development in most years. Storms flare up and die out in the BOC and down in the cradle of the SW Caribbean near Panama storms pulsate and go flat just as fast. It's part of the ongoing process. SAL is strong in the Eastern Atlantic as if someone remembered suddenly to turn the switch on. There are waves but they are not overly exciting waves unable to do battle with cousin Sal. We ( a group of weather friends online) like to call him "cousin" because well you know how those difficult cousins are in any large family. Everyone's got one or two or three and you can't live with them and you can't live without em. With any luck they are loyal good friends as well as partners in crime but they have a tendency to take all the air out of the room at a family gathering by reminding everyone about the one thing no one wanted to be reminded of...

This blog should be subtitled...

"Don't stop believing..."

Note far to the right, down low is a wave that looks interesting. That's why we call this "wave watching" in that it starts with a wave. You thought I was gonna say "kiss" didn't you? And that wave has to catch the eye of the right people at the exact same time as the models suddenly close off Lows and show moisture congregating in all the right places with pressures dropping and well you know the rest of the story. Otherwise we spend most of our time studying old hurricanes to learn from the past to deal with the next big hurricane. Patterns, it's all about patterns. Whether we are talking about the news or the weather it's all about patterns. A friend put this image up this morning and in ways he's right especially as he knows waves of all kinds.

He's a smart guy that's a little crazy. He probably doesn't mind being called crazy as much as a "little" crazy as he does things in big ways. But, he's right patterns are known to produce tropical cyclones. When we are really bored suddenly in the tropics after so much food at the "All You Can Eat Tropical Buffet" we start to watch the Canadian model yelling at it a bit "hit me with your best shot, fire away!!!"

Luckily for us crazy types the Canadian never disappoints. 

That's about a week out so don't hold your breath!

The EURO took a vacation to a beach in Majorca.

Watch out for sharks ....by the way.

The GFS long range model shown above in an image taken from www.tropicaltidbits.com shows a nice, large African wave setting sail on a journey across the ocean. That is very long range as in after you ate too much watermelon and drank too much beer over July 4th weekend! It's after a week of intermittent, weak waves trying to form with high pressure areas popping up for no apparent reason and then suddenly the MOTHER LODE... a big, huge, healthy wave riding low trying to avoid SAL. Yes, there has been whispers and chatter on this wave and the beginning of the CV season starting off in early July. Whether you insist on calling it a Cape Verde wave or you try and be politically correct and call it a Cabo Verde wave an African wave that's viable by any name is akin to a perfect rose for people who spend hours tending their garden trying to coax that one long stem beauty into perfection. A long range model is akin to a run on sentence that needs to be edited down or left alone under the guise of "my writing style" and if you are still reading this you must like my writing as...there is nothing happening currently in the Atlantic Tropical Basin.

I could wax poetic on the area of convection near the BOC but I'm really more of an African 

Wave girl who likes to ride a really long wave. I don't want to hear one great song and then leave the party I want to dance all night. I want to wake up in the morning and watch sunrise, then walk the length of Simonton (which makes no sense to you unless you have done it) and then watch the sunset. I want a long tracker, real tropical cyclone vs some sacrificial tropical depression offered to ancient Mayan Gods who refuse to let the season begin without one very mediocre named tropical storm. Please let that one be Don as I'm not up to the nonstop jokes the media will make on Hurricane Don. Let's just not go there. Make Don a fish storm and let's let this be the year that the name Emily is finally retired!!

And that's the state of the tropic this Monday Morning. Keep watching. If anything pops up on the models in the short term that was not there last night or this morning I'll mention it. I'd be very shocked if we don't have a healthy wave with designation after July 4th weekend and so I suggest you all do your July 4th thing and enjoy the end of June and early July before we start rocking and rolling again. The period from July 7th to July 13th looks ripe for trouble. 

I could be right, I could be wrong but the guy who liked that song was a lot of fun to dance with all night long ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter 

Ps I'm not a big Billy Joel fan, really more an 80s girl but... 

... you might be the lunatic I'm looking for...

2 great names Billy and Joel

You can't go wrong with those two.

Easter. Passover. Seasons.

Today is Easter Sunday and Passover for many people reading this so going to talk a bit about the seasons and holidays. The weather is in general okay, however you still need to be on guard in some parts of the country for severe weather to blow up as we are headed into record warm temperatures in many areas. Nothing like the Tornado outbreak in 2000, but somewhere it might rain on your Easter Parade.

This post today is about the seasons on parade. The march of time, of humanity, of Uncle George and Great Aunt Samantha and possibly your second cousin once removed Melinda who shows up at your family dinner totally wasted talking on Wicca and you wonder "oh my gosh where are her pills??" Someone told me once they had an Aunt who thought she was a lighthouse and occasionally climbed onto the roof and stood there trying to ward off ships from the reefs. That was sweet of her, but they lived in Nebraska so.... well....yeah we have all been there. You fall asleep in Church or at the family Passover Seder. Awkward.. But life does go on even if you have to change churches or find a different family to go to next year for the seder..

Sometimes it's an experience you remember forever...



Whatever holiday you are celebrating or not ... enjoy the day, enjoy the seasons, enjoy your family or friends or quiet time. Perhaps you have dogs or cats or a fish. Maybe you have a fake fish.... whatever rocks your boat. Pray for what you want, desire, need and remember to breathe. To everyone there is a season and I sincerely pray you are enjoying yours.

Seasons:



For some people the holidays feel like this song above...........

Seasons come and go like the holidays. Each holiday is layered upon another holiday memory that adds up in our brain like some colliding collage of good times and bad times. Happy holiday meals and quiet conversation and times when that strange lady who married into the family spoils the fun or Uncle Gary wakes up at the table and starts trying to relive some wild battle from World War 2 and there are times we pray there is no World War 3 around the corner.



The seasons turn... time turns.... weather seasons turn from one to another. Winter, Spring, Summer... then comes Hurricane Season.

Old timers remember a time when people put on their Easter Bonnet and took to going to parade their clothes like it was a fashion show for Coachella now days.



Times change and yet climate doesn't really. Yes, we move from Ice Age to Warming and one thing can throw it possibly out of balance (meteor, nuclear war, invasion of the body snatchers maybe) but we roll with the punches. You raise the house up if you think the street will flood. You move inland. You build a bunker, you make love, you sip coffee and try not to put the news on....



You hide from Crazy Old Aunt Mary who wants to lecture you on life and you pretend Peter Rabbit is not hiding in the bushes with a basket of Easter Eggs that are some sort of practical joke. You lay low or you put on your Easter Bonnet and stride through the park while looking for portals while playing Ingress or looking for a Geocache somewhere in a forested dell. Or you pray like crazy in Church for the people out playing Ingress on Easter Sunday.

On Miami Beach in 1927 people gathered together to pray to have a good year, to rebuild the structure of life after the 1926 Hurricane the September before. They went on.... they prayed for a new future stronger than the past one that was blown away and they started over. As a good friend likes to say pragmatically "life goes on" and perhaps in a way Easter Sunday is part of that process. Life goes on, the trees come to life and they rededicate their lives to God, to their family and to their future. It's about looking back and looking forward.

Life goes on and on and on (well we pray it does) and there is always that chance, that dream of tomorrow being better than today. Of grabbing the brass ring or catching the girl you always loved or finding the perfect man or the perfect wave (not the first wave ever ...) and being blessed with an incredible sunrise on Easter Sunday for many is like winning the spiritual lottery.

http://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2015/04/2/world-war-ii-vet-recalls-jewish-prayer-service-in-liberated-german-city.html

In Europe after World War 2 people got together and made a Passover Seder. It's human nature to go on, pick up the pieces and move on or rebuild. To bless the new season, new growth, young love and to watch the waves breaking onto the beach as the golden sun slowly rises from it's night time Neptunian Mists hidden away while we sleep .....waiting to wake up and start again at sunrise.

Passover is about freedom....



After freedom there is a measure of freedom trust me. We go back to life as it was .... or perhaps as we wish to paint the future. How do you want to paint your future and who do you want in that future and do you want mountains or beaches or both?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on twitter... I'd say follow me but I'm in hiding mode right now ;)

Ps.... Dear Stephen I'm sure that Barbara is out there somewhere in an Easter Bonnet!