Atlantic Slow. Tropical Rant In Search of Extraordinary VS Mediocre Pseudo Tropical Storms.

The lesson learned from today's blog is the following.

We need cold fronts.

You have to get some fronts dipping down...

The set up needs to change.

Otherwise Africa's best waves keep making Epac Storms.

And Epac storms are fish storms mostly.

Let's not pretend FERNANDA is hitting HAWAII as a CANE.

Just saying.

You can't have a good tango without a dip.

I'm also a dancer... remember 

42 seconds in if you are impatient.

Lord knows I'm impatient.

I'm not into mediocre.

And to be honest Cindy and Don were mediocre.

Mother Nature did save us from having Hilary and Don tho...

..so thank you Mother Nature.

As for the discussion on ACE.

I'm not into it.

I don't care about the ACE numbers.

Obviously the four named storms in the Atlantic were crap storms.

We call them crap storms when they didn't do much.

Well they did validate the NHC use of models.

And the models did call for "development" 

If you can call Don or Cindy "development"

Fine we had four storms.

A friend called Don a  "pseudo storm" I like that.

I want a real hurricane.

Bottom line.

Everyone wants something.

I want a real hurricane in the Atlantic.

Yes the EPAC is smoking hot. That will end soon. And again they got some of our best CV waves. About a month ago everyone was whining it was slow there. People were waxing academic on the slow start to the EPAC season and how the Atlantic was way ahead of the EPAC as if this was some sort of game. I'm not into numbers 10/7/4 because numbers can be manipulated. Obviously we had Cindy and that was manipulation of numbers and over reliance on models of a system forming close in. Don was not much more than a dot westbound. TD4 looked way better than Don the Dot but TD4 was not knocking at the door to the islands so it remained TD4 even though it looked way better than Cindy ever did. I'm not even talking on the A storm way back when. 

Loop this loop and watch the process that allows African waves to seed the EPAC with named storms. The lost to SAL was a win in the long run as the EPAC has no SAL.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Larry Cosgrove is a friend and one of the best meteorologists I know and I know the best. He's been brutally honest in his forecast on the lack of tropical development in the Atlantic.  He's a voice I cannot ignore as much as I would love to... And I'll add in it my own thoughts it ispossible something close in develops if it gets into the right spot. Something better than Cindy but not Don the Dot. And he is being more harsh than Jim from Hurricane City (another really close friend who I have learned much from and I'm not just talking tropics) in that Larry can't even say we will have anything real to track through August. You can subscribe to his forecasts online. Years back, oh my gosh decades back Larry would call for cyclogenesis and other mets would make fun of him only to see it play out just as Larry said it would. And what I love about Larry most (besides his music) is his understanding of how the globe works weather wise. Geographic knowledge combined with meteorological and well just on all levels .. Larry knows his stuff. Part of his stuff is music and y'all know how much I love music.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

I'm posting a sample below of what he recently wrote. Note the reason we should worry on this is not because 1992 was a slow hurricane season, but because the large, huge ridge allowed for the Katrina, Betsy and Andrew sort of double landfall scenario set up. Throw in Hurricane Georges that kept moving WNW despite every NHC discussion that it would soon make the turn...

This is the mean season gang.

It's hot and only getting hotter.

It was 85 degrees at 1 AM last night.

Only a weather person uses Snapchat as a thermometer

Heat index was off the charts as well last night.

The mean season brings out the meanies in people.

In Miami .. okay Hialeah someone shot at FPL trucks.

He was upset they were parked so long in front of his house.

So he shot out the tires.

As my daughter said "that ain't gonna help his situation"

His excuse was he went bananas.

My brother gets that way when he goes to the Subway in Hialeah.

But I digress.

Because Miami...

UH HUH...

Enjoying this ramble?

Hope so cause if not now when?

One day it's hot...

..and soon it will not be hot.

Seasons... First EPAC

Then Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As for the EPAC feed more by African Waves than Columbian monsoonal convection it was a slow start and then it went bonkers as if it was on steroids. And this too shall pass. Everything has it's season. In Miami we have tourist seasons, mango season, football season and hurricane season. Those are our four seasons. In Raleigh we have Pumpkin Spice Latte Season, It's never gonna snow season, hot as hell season and "wow the dogwood is in bloom" season. What are your seasons? The EPAC it lit up today like the sun when it's busy and then the sun goes quiet. This is my "I"m impatient sick of stupid, pseudo tropical storms and football is too far away for my liking and it's way too hot to go outside and I can't find a good bold, gel 1.6 pen the way I used to be able to do and yes it makes a difference season. This is my blog and I can do long run on sentences and be brutally honest because if not now when? As an old friend on AOL used to say "I don't give a rat's ass" unless it's a real hurricane with an eye.

I want a hurricane.

A real hurricane.

Don't go all "hurricanes are bad" on me.

It can swerve away fast if you are peace loving.

I'm an Earth Science person.

I like hurricanes.

It's why my blog is not called:

"Growing tomatoes in my backyard in Raleigh"

It's called Hurricane Harbor for a reason.

So what is the answer here?

We need frontal boundaries dipping down.

Not racing East as the Epac races West.

We need to mix it up for many meteorological reasons.

Dip stupid front DIP!

As for the ULL situation I am so over that!

So what's the answer?

1. To put a halt to the heat ridge creating misery across the Eastern Half of the country.

2. To flip the switch on the tropics into "ON" to have something to track, study and chase.

3. If you hate hurricanes carry on and root for the ridge..go for it. Enjoy the heat.

4. Go back up and read what Larry said on 1992 and think twice on loving that ridge.

5. If you are doing futures know the crops are taking a beating from the heat. 

6. Today's blog post is brought to you from someone who has had enough of nothing.

7. I didn't trash my friends at the NHC because I'm respectful and holding back (for now).

8. I need a 500 MB heights obviously.......  Larry gets that. :(

Extra credit points for why #7 above.

Nice tropical waves get no mention w/o model support.

And so far the models have sucked if you ask me.

Despite mention here the NHC won't mention them.

Except on the discussion no one reads.

Well i do but you know that don't you?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/231121_MIATWDAT.shtml?

I've never been a real summer girl in retrospect. I don't tan, I just burn and then the burn fades away. I did get serious sun poisoning once with my cousin at a hotel on Miami Beach when we eluded my grandmother and spent the whole day in the pool and the ocean. After the invention of AC most Miami kids hibernate in malls, movie theaters and take trips up to the mountains of NC to evade the summer heat. Even long summer trips to relatives in NY is worth getting out of town. We wear shorts and sandals all the time so waiting for the summer to put on "summer clothes" is not something we care about and pool parties at friends houses usually involved throwing each other into the pool and then going into the Florida Room inside to stay cool. Note FPL makes a fricking fortune from the electric bill it takes to live on life support in Miami in July and August. And not to beat a dead horse but rather than fix their poles they wait til the poles fall down in relatively minor hurricanes and then raise the rates because it cost so much to fix them. Sorry FPL friends but being honest, I'm in a mood. 

In NC summer means you can go barefoot outside, if you want to go outside. Everything is green again as all the flowers have died from the heat. If you slept late your tomatoes have died on your backyard plants which is why it's worth the extra money to shop at Whole Foods. Also I may add Whole Foods keeps the AC really COLD so you can lower yours while away ...save some money and enjoy the quality coffee and let them clean up after you eat lunch. I'm not much of a farmer. I grew up in LA in the 80s according to Facebook (probably true in ways) and I've been an actor, a dancer and worked on political campaigns since I was five and I'm a writer who refuses to spell check this morning and refuses to lie to you.

1. We have good waves that in the old days would at least be mentioned on tropical updates. Especially as they have made it intact across the dry, Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America and then went into the Carib only to form in the EPAC where SAL does not exist.

But this year clusters of convection are named TS..

..rather than Subtropical Cyclones.

I'm being kind.

But the day will come when the EPAC gets quiet.

( i know upwelling......rolling eyes)

And the Atlantic will come to life.

If the SAL is gone...

..and the High is not gone.

The huge double barreled high.....

1992 might indeed be something to worry on.

Fronts will form just enough to pull the waves WNW.

And you know what that means.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps will leave this here for Jim W.

If he is still reading and grinning.

One of the best...  he was truly extraordinary and left a legacy of video online.

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/name/james-leonard-obituary?pid=1000000173072579&view=guestbook

Must be something about the name Jim ;)

State of the Tropics in the Atlantic Basin Monday Morning While Hurricane Dora Dances In the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Dora is in the Epac moving WNW out to sea. Pretty hurricane and not expected to a problem for anyone and of course no one is really paying attention. Like in Real Estate it's all about location and Dora is in the wrong location for Atlantic Basin people. If we had a hurricane in the Atlantic moving WNW at 13 mph the islands might be in it's way. Just the way of the world in that we tend to ignore the hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific while counting 5, 6, 7 days until our side of the world becomes active again.

Pretty quiet on our side of the world.

There is some cloud clutter in the areas known to show June development in most years. Storms flare up and die out in the BOC and down in the cradle of the SW Caribbean near Panama storms pulsate and go flat just as fast. It's part of the ongoing process. SAL is strong in the Eastern Atlantic as if someone remembered suddenly to turn the switch on. There are waves but they are not overly exciting waves unable to do battle with cousin Sal. We ( a group of weather friends online) like to call him "cousin" because well you know how those difficult cousins are in any large family. Everyone's got one or two or three and you can't live with them and you can't live without em. With any luck they are loyal good friends as well as partners in crime but they have a tendency to take all the air out of the room at a family gathering by reminding everyone about the one thing no one wanted to be reminded of...

This blog should be subtitled...

"Don't stop believing..."

Note far to the right, down low is a wave that looks interesting. That's why we call this "wave watching" in that it starts with a wave. You thought I was gonna say "kiss" didn't you? And that wave has to catch the eye of the right people at the exact same time as the models suddenly close off Lows and show moisture congregating in all the right places with pressures dropping and well you know the rest of the story. Otherwise we spend most of our time studying old hurricanes to learn from the past to deal with the next big hurricane. Patterns, it's all about patterns. Whether we are talking about the news or the weather it's all about patterns. A friend put this image up this morning and in ways he's right especially as he knows waves of all kinds.

He's a smart guy that's a little crazy. He probably doesn't mind being called crazy as much as a "little" crazy as he does things in big ways. But, he's right patterns are known to produce tropical cyclones. When we are really bored suddenly in the tropics after so much food at the "All You Can Eat Tropical Buffet" we start to watch the Canadian model yelling at it a bit "hit me with your best shot, fire away!!!"

Luckily for us crazy types the Canadian never disappoints. 

That's about a week out so don't hold your breath!

The EURO took a vacation to a beach in Majorca.

Watch out for sharks ....by the way.

The GFS long range model shown above in an image taken from www.tropicaltidbits.com shows a nice, large African wave setting sail on a journey across the ocean. That is very long range as in after you ate too much watermelon and drank too much beer over July 4th weekend! It's after a week of intermittent, weak waves trying to form with high pressure areas popping up for no apparent reason and then suddenly the MOTHER LODE... a big, huge, healthy wave riding low trying to avoid SAL. Yes, there has been whispers and chatter on this wave and the beginning of the CV season starting off in early July. Whether you insist on calling it a Cape Verde wave or you try and be politically correct and call it a Cabo Verde wave an African wave that's viable by any name is akin to a perfect rose for people who spend hours tending their garden trying to coax that one long stem beauty into perfection. A long range model is akin to a run on sentence that needs to be edited down or left alone under the guise of "my writing style" and if you are still reading this you must like my writing as...there is nothing happening currently in the Atlantic Tropical Basin.

I could wax poetic on the area of convection near the BOC but I'm really more of an African 

Wave girl who likes to ride a really long wave. I don't want to hear one great song and then leave the party I want to dance all night. I want to wake up in the morning and watch sunrise, then walk the length of Simonton (which makes no sense to you unless you have done it) and then watch the sunset. I want a long tracker, real tropical cyclone vs some sacrificial tropical depression offered to ancient Mayan Gods who refuse to let the season begin without one very mediocre named tropical storm. Please let that one be Don as I'm not up to the nonstop jokes the media will make on Hurricane Don. Let's just not go there. Make Don a fish storm and let's let this be the year that the name Emily is finally retired!!

And that's the state of the tropic this Monday Morning. Keep watching. If anything pops up on the models in the short term that was not there last night or this morning I'll mention it. I'd be very shocked if we don't have a healthy wave with designation after July 4th weekend and so I suggest you all do your July 4th thing and enjoy the end of June and early July before we start rocking and rolling again. The period from July 7th to July 13th looks ripe for trouble. 

I could be right, I could be wrong but the guy who liked that song was a lot of fun to dance with all night long ;)

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter.

Follow me on Twitter 

Ps I'm not a big Billy Joel fan, really more an 80s girl but... 

... you might be the lunatic I'm looking for...

2 great names Billy and Joel

You can't go wrong with those two.