Severe Weather in the South Today and Hurricane Season 2019 Waiting in the Wings. Hurricane Gracie Some Hurricane History.

Hurricane Gracie 1959.

Remember that for later please :)

Today's weather issue is shown below.

My best friend says we don't have problems anymore.

We have "issues"

So let's go with that.

Keep your eye on the radar guys.

Chance for severe weather in the South today as temperatures soar close to the 80 degree mark and clash with weather that's not so hot. Everyone in the shaded area is on watch for severe weather that can pop up as fast an a summer thunderstorm or pollen blowing off a pine tree when a helicopter gets too close.

Thunderstorms may pop. 

Some may pop violently.

Many hate that graphic above.

Because the word "slight" is hazy....

It makes you think nothing to worry on..

I mean "slight" means barely there to many.

It only takes one tornado to develop...

in the same way hurricane predictions fall ...

...to the wayside when two majors strike the coastline.

It's really stupid for people to say "slight" or "below normal"

Severe weather may happen.

Hurricanes happen.

Speaking of Hurricanes I'm talking on Gracie today.

Gracie was the strongest hurricane since Hazel to make landfall.

That's her eye up there staring down at you.

Gracie was a funny storm in that most people don't remember her unless they are older and live along the South Carolina coastline. Somehow this Category 4 hurricane got lost in the shuffle of the damage from Hazel in 1954 five years before and the overwhelming scope of damage from Hurricane Donna a year later when Donna ravaged a good part of the Eastern Seaboard. Everyone always talks on those early 1960 hurricanes such as Donna, Betsy, Cleo, Flora and yet few seem to remember Gracie. Actually 1959 was a bumper year for major hurricanes and it led right into 1960 that produced the infamous Donna. Check out the video below and wanna add here.... it's possible for us to see similar early season storms form for a variety of reasons.

Worth noting 1959 was a busy season.

A wide variety of small storms and big storms.

Gracie was big... a Category 4 hurricane.

Gracie had one of those tracks a storm tracker loves.

Forms close in and can't decide where it wants to go.

It makes the tracking so much more fun.

Talking tracking as in years ago people tracked.

Now we just look on our App or check online.

Each advisory came out six hours apart.

Three if there were watches and warnings up.

You wrote down the coordinates.

Rushed over to your handy dandy hurricane map...

(all the gas stations and news stations gave them out for free)

And you marked a new dot on the map.

God I love maps.

But Gracie was way before my time.

And living in Florida few people talked about her.

So I forget about her sometimes.

Few who were in her path of destruction forgot.

She was one of the ones that made memories.

This is what video looked like before your cell phone :)

Home movies put to music.

You think we hype storms now?

Wow nothing like news reels.

A "traveling catastrophe" 

Who remembers Hugo?

Yeah we've come along way since the 1950s.

Then they were excited to get a good radar picture of the eye.

By the 80s we were watching them travel from Africa.

Traveling West towards the Islands....

... slowly coming together.

Everything was slow then....

Waiting on new coordinates to be released.

Watching each new image from the satellite to come in...

Hugo hit South Carolina like it was the first time in forever.

And in ways it was ....

People moved in from places up north...

... people who thought hurricanes go to Miami I guess.

Miami watched and sighed a breath of relief...

"A Carolina Storm" old timers said.

Great video there... 

I remember Hugo.

I remembered Hugo the whole night of Hurricane Andrew.

All of Miami remembered the images from Hugo.

Yet so few remember Gracie.

I have a lot of friends and I do mean friends as some are close personal friends who have been releasing their forecasts for this upcoming Hurricane Season. There's a lot to compare and contrast in them though they all show basically the same thing and that is Hurricane Season is coming sooner rather than later. Coastal cities may have to watch this year as they did last year because it's more likely storms will form close to land vs out in the Mid Atlantic region though that will most likely happen come August and September when the water warms up and the dust dries out. 

I'm really not up yet to talk on generalities and mention lots of abbreviations to try and sound all academic and meteorologically intellectual though I'm sure I will as the season progresses. I worked and lived in Academia and it gets boring in ways and it's not like standing on the beach feeling the wind, hearing the howl of a hurricane approaching or standing on rocks or on the hood of a car to get good pictures and data and feel the hurricane up close and personal. If you have not done that on a Florida beach with all the palm fronds pointing in one direction and the trees bending a little as palm trees do you really have not seen a hurricane in all it's glory. 

I know Texas gets them and the wind howls as the sand blows and the waves get all frothy underneath the legs the beach house is built upon and yes hurricanes happen in Cape Cod but it's just not the same. Hurricane Donna in New York and nearby regions took down age old oaks and poplars and flooding was the big story. Hurricane Gracie caused "issues" far inland once she was only a tropical storm and that's part of the life process of a hurricane after landfall. 

So in a few days or a week or so I'll post the various opinions but like the NWS graphic that says North Carolina may have a slight risk of severe weather they really are trying to warn you that weather may happen. Personally I'm not a big believer in El Nino being a huge factor deep into the hurricane season when hurricanes will happen. I think there's a flip going on and I am not yet sure how much of a flip will happen and whether we go back towards Neutral or lunge towards a La Nina but I do know current conditions warrant concern in coastal cities from hurricanes that form closer in ... much in the way Michael pulled it together closer in and much in the way Jeanne and Frances found their groove as they sniffed landfall and trying to write about whether it will be a "slightly above normal" or "slightly below normal season" isn't doing it for me just yet. 

This is not my favorite time of year though Mother Nature is putting on a beautiful show in the Carolinas of Spring color as azaleas are popping and dogwood is at it's prime, pollen is falling and cherry blossoms are in bloom. Tulips are pushing up through the ground at record rate and red seems to be a big color this year. Severe weather is possible across the South. The times they are a changing.

Stay tuned...... 

Remember while reading lots of articles that the media will put out it only takes one and hurricanes that form close to the coast like Michael or Katrina after hitting her warm water spot there after traipsing across South Florida as a weaker storm (that formed just off shore of Florida) did a whole lot of damage so I don't really want to hear lots of academic discussion on how the water is cooler than normal or that El Nino was officially announced after it had been here a long while and is showing signs of possibly leaving sooner rather than later.

Be prepared.

Pay attention.

Watch your local weather experts.

Follow along on social media.

I watch several sites personally.

I love checking in with Mike because he's always relevant. A man for all seasons :)

www.spaghettimodels.com

Hurricanes happen and so does severe weather ...whether it's a marginal risk or slight risk weather can and will happen.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Let's look back at 2018 because I think this season will be similar to 2018 in ways as the pattern has not changed that much overall and because of what I am seeing in April though things can change a lot before September as we all know. September Remember right? Anyone remember Alberto that made landfall early near where Hurricane Michael made landfall late in the season? Remember when Florence formed and was immediately written off by the experts as a "Fish Storm?" and remember when Leslie spun around randomly like a top that wouldn't stop spinning? Remember all the early preseason discussion on why 2018 could be a slower year than normal because of cooler waters in the MDR? Remember when indeed.

Tropical Atlantic Still Slow - Make Up and Hurricanes.

So let's start off with the basics as the song teaches us it is a very good place to start.

There is nothing out there.

There is a wave over Africa (i know i say that often)

The models are flirting with the wave.

Even the EURO is showing some interest.

Til then I want to discuss a few things.

Make up ... 

Everything in the universe can teach us something.

(I saw it on a poster in TJMaxx...)

This is mostly for women who wear make up and will really understand this discussion. It's also for guys who want to see how beautiful women become even hotter with the help of make up. Unless you like the natural look in which case your wife secretly hates you! So follow along.

A wave needs to have a look... some look of a low pressure system attached or a good moisture pocket with a few early signs it could one day have banding. If it wants the EURO to notice it needs to have a basic look to it.

You need good bones to really be a classic beauty. There are all sorts of beautiful non classic people who have their day in the sun just as there are Tropical Storms such as Cindy that played in the Gulf of Mexico early in the season. A little young, raw and perhaps not good with her style yet but hey it was June you were expecting Miss Universe? I don't think so.. not in June. Cindy probably didn't even graduate past Clinique to Estee Lauder but well she ran out of time and money over Louisiana. She did try using a lot of Rimmel eye liners but all the colors sort of ran together and well Cindy was a mess. But she definitely got a name so she did achieve something. Cindy Crawford she was not.



Beyond having good bones you need to work with what you got. Make the most of the good things and cover up the rest. You need to do something to treat the skin. You need moisturizers at night to keep the skin soft and touchable. You need a primer to keep the make up on and hopefully the moisturizer in. Moisturizer is to the skin is important. Dry conditions can rob a raving beauty of her moisture and her skin begins to flake. Clinique has lots of things for that if you are wondering. Only shop when they are giving out Gifts With Purchase. Their products are good anytime, however the GWP thing is like when the MJO moves into the Atlantic Basin in August and we are suddenly set to party. It's like Extra Credit at the beginning of the test!

SAL still a culprit. 

Those waves need all the moisture they can get.

Moisture is important. A hurricane needs moisture. Too much partying with SAL causes stress, blemishes, wrinkles and dry skin. Dry is not good for skin nor for tropical systems. My Grandma,  a true Southerner, told me when young that is why Southern Women are always so beautiful because up north with those seasons you get all dried out. She also used a parasol to keep the sun off her face, unlike my mother who developed skin cancer early on but I digress.  In order to go the distance a good wave needs to moisten up often, day and night to be all that it can be...



A pop of color always helps.
Tropical waves need a good amount of color to really get the attention of the forecasters at the NHC. The Euro will totally ignore a wave that doesn't get color down the road. Add color to catch attention.



It's also important to keep that color going. A good foundation is important. Any Miami beauty knows that. If you don't use the right make up ...it just slides off before you even get into the car. Only tourists drive convertibles ... know why? Messes up your hair, you get too much sun and you make up slides off too fast. Well, in January we use convertibles. LA babes drive convertibles all the time. Know why? The humidity is less and their make up doesn't slide off.



Things just don't happen in the tropics because the calendar page has turned. To get the EURO to really go GAGA you have to catch it's attention and continue with sustained drama.



Lastly lipstick. Nothing catches attention faster than a pop of color on the lips. If you want all the young weather guys making weather videos to catch your attention a good wave needs to add some color to the lips. Note it needs enough structure you can find the lips. It's easy to find the eye of a real hurricane but the lips can be trickier. They are sort of like those vortexes in the eye that swirl around making us weather people go "oooh and ahhh" and get weak knees and want to sit by the computer and stare endlessly for hours.



So that's my tropical thoughts for they day. I do use moisturizer and I do use Estee Lauder Double Wear and I do love a little eye liner and a bit of lipstick.

I'm waiting to buy some new eye shadow but waiting for the MJO to show it on sale with a Gift For Purchase. And why I wonder to women not do weather videos like the guys do? I mean there must be a few out there somewhere who went to some meteorology school. Next blog post I may show some more videos but more meteorological ones If that wave that just came off of Africa manages to figure out how to spin low under SAL I'll wait for the next wave. A friend who is a surfer always tells me not to take the first wave.

Hurricane Donna in 1960 that came rolling off of Africa downing an airplane and killing people before it even reached our side of the world was NOT the first wave of the season. But Donna was a born beauty, a deadly beauty that came rolling off of Africa in late August. Time will tell. Stay tuned. I hope you understood this and continue watching some good videos explaining make up. Apply the moisturizer rule to the tropical waves and some continuous wear foundation with a pop of color that stays long enough to even catch John Hope's attention and you will have a Hurricane Emily.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps I'm just messing with you. Tomorrow I'll me showing some videos on hair products.



;) love u... love me.

Atlantic Slow. Tropical Rant In Search of Extraordinary VS Mediocre Pseudo Tropical Storms.

The lesson learned from today's blog is the following.

We need cold fronts.

You have to get some fronts dipping down...

The set up needs to change.

Otherwise Africa's best waves keep making Epac Storms.

And Epac storms are fish storms mostly.

Let's not pretend FERNANDA is hitting HAWAII as a CANE.

Just saying.

You can't have a good tango without a dip.

I'm also a dancer... remember 

42 seconds in if you are impatient.

Lord knows I'm impatient.

I'm not into mediocre.

And to be honest Cindy and Don were mediocre.

Mother Nature did save us from having Hilary and Don tho...

..so thank you Mother Nature.

As for the discussion on ACE.

I'm not into it.

I don't care about the ACE numbers.

Obviously the four named storms in the Atlantic were crap storms.

We call them crap storms when they didn't do much.

Well they did validate the NHC use of models.

And the models did call for "development" 

If you can call Don or Cindy "development"

Fine we had four storms.

A friend called Don a  "pseudo storm" I like that.

I want a real hurricane.

Bottom line.

Everyone wants something.

I want a real hurricane in the Atlantic.

Yes the EPAC is smoking hot. That will end soon. And again they got some of our best CV waves. About a month ago everyone was whining it was slow there. People were waxing academic on the slow start to the EPAC season and how the Atlantic was way ahead of the EPAC as if this was some sort of game. I'm not into numbers 10/7/4 because numbers can be manipulated. Obviously we had Cindy and that was manipulation of numbers and over reliance on models of a system forming close in. Don was not much more than a dot westbound. TD4 looked way better than Don the Dot but TD4 was not knocking at the door to the islands so it remained TD4 even though it looked way better than Cindy ever did. I'm not even talking on the A storm way back when. 

Loop this loop and watch the process that allows African waves to seed the EPAC with named storms. The lost to SAL was a win in the long run as the EPAC has no SAL.

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

Larry Cosgrove is a friend and one of the best meteorologists I know and I know the best. He's been brutally honest in his forecast on the lack of tropical development in the Atlantic.  He's a voice I cannot ignore as much as I would love to... And I'll add in it my own thoughts it ispossible something close in develops if it gets into the right spot. Something better than Cindy but not Don the Dot. And he is being more harsh than Jim from Hurricane City (another really close friend who I have learned much from and I'm not just talking tropics) in that Larry can't even say we will have anything real to track through August. You can subscribe to his forecasts online. Years back, oh my gosh decades back Larry would call for cyclogenesis and other mets would make fun of him only to see it play out just as Larry said it would. And what I love about Larry most (besides his music) is his understanding of how the globe works weather wise. Geographic knowledge combined with meteorological and well just on all levels .. Larry knows his stuff. Part of his stuff is music and y'all know how much I love music.

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove

I'm posting a sample below of what he recently wrote. Note the reason we should worry on this is not because 1992 was a slow hurricane season, but because the large, huge ridge allowed for the Katrina, Betsy and Andrew sort of double landfall scenario set up. Throw in Hurricane Georges that kept moving WNW despite every NHC discussion that it would soon make the turn...

This is the mean season gang.

It's hot and only getting hotter.

It was 85 degrees at 1 AM last night.

Only a weather person uses Snapchat as a thermometer

Heat index was off the charts as well last night.

The mean season brings out the meanies in people.

In Miami .. okay Hialeah someone shot at FPL trucks.

He was upset they were parked so long in front of his house.

So he shot out the tires.

As my daughter said "that ain't gonna help his situation"

His excuse was he went bananas.

My brother gets that way when he goes to the Subway in Hialeah.

But I digress.

Because Miami...

UH HUH...

Enjoying this ramble?

Hope so cause if not now when?

One day it's hot...

..and soon it will not be hot.

Seasons... First EPAC

Then Atlantic Hurricane Season.

As for the EPAC feed more by African Waves than Columbian monsoonal convection it was a slow start and then it went bonkers as if it was on steroids. And this too shall pass. Everything has it's season. In Miami we have tourist seasons, mango season, football season and hurricane season. Those are our four seasons. In Raleigh we have Pumpkin Spice Latte Season, It's never gonna snow season, hot as hell season and "wow the dogwood is in bloom" season. What are your seasons? The EPAC it lit up today like the sun when it's busy and then the sun goes quiet. This is my "I"m impatient sick of stupid, pseudo tropical storms and football is too far away for my liking and it's way too hot to go outside and I can't find a good bold, gel 1.6 pen the way I used to be able to do and yes it makes a difference season. This is my blog and I can do long run on sentences and be brutally honest because if not now when? As an old friend on AOL used to say "I don't give a rat's ass" unless it's a real hurricane with an eye.

I want a hurricane.

A real hurricane.

Don't go all "hurricanes are bad" on me.

It can swerve away fast if you are peace loving.

I'm an Earth Science person.

I like hurricanes.

It's why my blog is not called:

"Growing tomatoes in my backyard in Raleigh"

It's called Hurricane Harbor for a reason.

So what is the answer here?

We need frontal boundaries dipping down.

Not racing East as the Epac races West.

We need to mix it up for many meteorological reasons.

Dip stupid front DIP!

As for the ULL situation I am so over that!

So what's the answer?

1. To put a halt to the heat ridge creating misery across the Eastern Half of the country.

2. To flip the switch on the tropics into "ON" to have something to track, study and chase.

3. If you hate hurricanes carry on and root for the ridge..go for it. Enjoy the heat.

4. Go back up and read what Larry said on 1992 and think twice on loving that ridge.

5. If you are doing futures know the crops are taking a beating from the heat. 

6. Today's blog post is brought to you from someone who has had enough of nothing.

7. I didn't trash my friends at the NHC because I'm respectful and holding back (for now).

8. I need a 500 MB heights obviously.......  Larry gets that. :(

Extra credit points for why #7 above.

Nice tropical waves get no mention w/o model support.

And so far the models have sucked if you ask me.

Despite mention here the NHC won't mention them.

Except on the discussion no one reads.

Well i do but you know that don't you?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/231121_MIATWDAT.shtml?

I've never been a real summer girl in retrospect. I don't tan, I just burn and then the burn fades away. I did get serious sun poisoning once with my cousin at a hotel on Miami Beach when we eluded my grandmother and spent the whole day in the pool and the ocean. After the invention of AC most Miami kids hibernate in malls, movie theaters and take trips up to the mountains of NC to evade the summer heat. Even long summer trips to relatives in NY is worth getting out of town. We wear shorts and sandals all the time so waiting for the summer to put on "summer clothes" is not something we care about and pool parties at friends houses usually involved throwing each other into the pool and then going into the Florida Room inside to stay cool. Note FPL makes a fricking fortune from the electric bill it takes to live on life support in Miami in July and August. And not to beat a dead horse but rather than fix their poles they wait til the poles fall down in relatively minor hurricanes and then raise the rates because it cost so much to fix them. Sorry FPL friends but being honest, I'm in a mood. 

In NC summer means you can go barefoot outside, if you want to go outside. Everything is green again as all the flowers have died from the heat. If you slept late your tomatoes have died on your backyard plants which is why it's worth the extra money to shop at Whole Foods. Also I may add Whole Foods keeps the AC really COLD so you can lower yours while away ...save some money and enjoy the quality coffee and let them clean up after you eat lunch. I'm not much of a farmer. I grew up in LA in the 80s according to Facebook (probably true in ways) and I've been an actor, a dancer and worked on political campaigns since I was five and I'm a writer who refuses to spell check this morning and refuses to lie to you.

1. We have good waves that in the old days would at least be mentioned on tropical updates. Especially as they have made it intact across the dry, Atlantic and washed up onto the shores of South America and then went into the Carib only to form in the EPAC where SAL does not exist.

But this year clusters of convection are named TS..

..rather than Subtropical Cyclones.

I'm being kind.

But the day will come when the EPAC gets quiet.

( i know upwelling......rolling eyes)

And the Atlantic will come to life.

If the SAL is gone...

..and the High is not gone.

The huge double barreled high.....

1992 might indeed be something to worry on.

Fronts will form just enough to pull the waves WNW.

And you know what that means.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps will leave this here for Jim W.

If he is still reading and grinning.

One of the best...  he was truly extraordinary and left a legacy of video online.

http://www.legacy.com/obituaries/name/james-leonard-obituary?pid=1000000173072579&view=guestbook

Must be something about the name Jim ;)

Hurricane Season 10 Days Away. Learn How to Evacuate ... Prepare and Be #HurricaneStrong

10 Days Til Hurricane Season.

You can watch as moisture moves West from Africa.

Across the Atlantic Ocean.

Moistening up the ITCZ

Moisture oozes N into the GOM

Clashes with cold fronts far inland.

But it begins to pool and fill in the E GOM.

Dry air pushes down, stretching everything out.

Everything is in flow, related, connected.

And we move closer to June 1st.

Water temps are warming up...

...well around the Florida coastline.

Epac is hot for sure...

East Africa has tropical waves.

But it's too soon to obsess.

Note the cold clouds above the ITCZ

It's just a matter of time.

Your local television channels are showing specials warning you about the Hurricane Season. How to prepare, how to be #Hurricanestrong and how to survive the aftermath of a hurricane. There are videos showing people boarding up businesses at the beach, stocking up on supplies for the days after landfall and how to get to your Emergency Shelter. And yet the season is really quite a ways off with the exception of that early Tropical Storm that forms down South of Cuba and threatens South Florida. Once in a while an early subtropical storm forms .... oh snap that happened already. It could happen again so watch those stagnant, stationary Upper Level Lows in the Atlantic. Stay on top of your game is the point I am making. Don't believe early discussion on forecasts for the season as they are forecasts... mere predictions based on scientific data that can be viewed differently by two different people. I'm purposely being redundant today if you haven't noticed.

Spoiler Alert if you see these near you....

... find out what they mean!

In truth we have miles to go of tornado chasing before we get into the heart of the Hurricane Season. Weather never takes a vacation it merely changes faces faster than kids did on AOL in 1997. We go with the flow, run with the tides and wait our turn and before you know it there is a 2 AM advisory because somewhere, someone has a watch or a warning. Not every storm is a Perfect Storm but you know them when you see them.... And, our perception of a perfect storm varies from "Oh Lord Please let it stay far away and go out to sea..." to a friend I had who always wished the storm would come and wash her world away so she could start over. A scientist wants to study, a forecaster wants to warn us and some of us want to be in the eye of the storm. Either way we are all in the same boat... waiting for Hurricane Season to begin on June 1st "officially" and that's 10 days away.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter... follow me on Twitter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_evacuation_route

Ps . . .