Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.

We can see Karen slowly coming apart.

Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.

#tropical update #blog out in a bit. Nothing new to add but to watch the tail end of fronts coming down as we move into #October. Sorry bit breathy on some meds. Doing so much better. Thanks for ur patience & updates while I’ve been there flint https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/OpLB0SjBZF

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 27, 2019

Hard to find a "Tropical Storm" where Karen is...

Lorenzo yeah...

The ULL is off the coast of FL.. visible.

Cones and facts below.

Karen's ever diminishing cone above.

Lorenzo below.

Lorenzo's wind path...

...far from land.

Discussion.

Some fluctuations in intensity are expected....

The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.

Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml

Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989. 

Lorenzo above.

Gabrielle below.

Note hos similar Lorenzo and Gabrielle look.

And yesterday Lorenzo looked more like Gabrielle.

Link to info on a forgotten intense hurricane.

Overshadowed by it's brother Hugo in 1989

And looking forward.

Remember to watch the tail end of fronts.

We are scheduled to have strong fronts soon.

And strong fronts race through and then...

...go flat somewhere off the East Coast.

Sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's a lot of model innuendo...

..and discussion by good meteorologists.

On something forming in mid October.

Don't hold me to October 15th...

2nd week to end I'd say.

Weather is FLUID.

So it dances to it's own tune.

We try and keep up.

Models adjust in real time.

Then the NHC adjusts in real time.

Being honest they are very model driven now.

Being honest we all are.

Going to rest the rest of the day.

And I'll update Sunday.

I was pretty sick.

Why do we say "pretty sick" I don't know.

No one is "pretty" when that sick.

But on the road to recovery.

Even without make up I look better than Karen.

So models for way out into the future.

And know any front that delivers a punch...

...could deliver tornadoes somewhere.

...and then possibly tropical development.

Time will tell.

Far off in the distance images of GFS and EURO.

Both show a dangling cold front...

..parked over warm water.

So keep that in mind while...

...looking for pumpkins this week.

Or doing the Jewish New Year.

Fall... end of summer.

Beginning of the new year.

Winter off in the distance...

Summer moves into the rear view mirror.

Transition of time.

Prime time for Major Hurricanes way too often.

2 long term images from www.windy.com

When you have time they are good to donate to.

As Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com says..

I give a $5 tip at a restaurant....

... give them a tip they are helpful.

That goes with Levi Cowan too.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Cost them money to run those sites.

I write... no real costs involved.

Even if I give valuable information.

I write the way Mike talks.

We can both go on and on forever.

So where do we go from here?

I'm going offline.

Letting antibiotics knock my infection out.

Now that the tooth issue is gone.

And I mean that literally...

The sinus issue is center stage.

Antibiotics bugging my stomach.

I'll save you the details.

But I had a huge headache last night.

So stayed offline...

Resting, drinking tea.

(not too warm because oral surgery)

And hey got lots of Halo Ice Cream!

Watching fall color from my window.

The view from my bed.

That tree rarely shows color until late October.

It's early this year.

I think Dorian may have shaken it up.

I remember after Matthew that happened.

Or winter will come soon...

Heard a rumor of 40s and 50s October 4th or 5th.

Time will tell.

But know while y'all complaining how hot it is..

...on the East Coast and in the Deep South.

It's cold and stormy with early snow in the NW.

Eventually winter will show up here too!

Have a beautiful Fall Weekend!

Or an Indian Summer Weekend!

Enjoy the experience... 

... it's part of a change.

Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...

And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.

My brother Ron took a picture...

...he's into photography.

Big circle there.. like an eye.

Miami Marine Stadium....

...waiting to come to life again.

Artists kept it alive.

Old pictures.

Miriam on the left and Rivky on the right.

Not twins... but they used to play the twin game.

We're captive on the carousel of time... 

enjoy the ride always.

Severe Weather in the South Today and Hurricane Season 2019 Waiting in the Wings. Hurricane Gracie Some Hurricane History.

Hurricane Gracie 1959.

Remember that for later please :)

Today's weather issue is shown below.

My best friend says we don't have problems anymore.

We have "issues"

So let's go with that.

Keep your eye on the radar guys.

Chance for severe weather in the South today as temperatures soar close to the 80 degree mark and clash with weather that's not so hot. Everyone in the shaded area is on watch for severe weather that can pop up as fast an a summer thunderstorm or pollen blowing off a pine tree when a helicopter gets too close.

Thunderstorms may pop. 

Some may pop violently.

Many hate that graphic above.

Because the word "slight" is hazy....

It makes you think nothing to worry on..

I mean "slight" means barely there to many.

It only takes one tornado to develop...

in the same way hurricane predictions fall ...

...to the wayside when two majors strike the coastline.

It's really stupid for people to say "slight" or "below normal"

Severe weather may happen.

Hurricanes happen.

Speaking of Hurricanes I'm talking on Gracie today.

Gracie was the strongest hurricane since Hazel to make landfall.

That's her eye up there staring down at you.

Gracie was a funny storm in that most people don't remember her unless they are older and live along the South Carolina coastline. Somehow this Category 4 hurricane got lost in the shuffle of the damage from Hazel in 1954 five years before and the overwhelming scope of damage from Hurricane Donna a year later when Donna ravaged a good part of the Eastern Seaboard. Everyone always talks on those early 1960 hurricanes such as Donna, Betsy, Cleo, Flora and yet few seem to remember Gracie. Actually 1959 was a bumper year for major hurricanes and it led right into 1960 that produced the infamous Donna. Check out the video below and wanna add here.... it's possible for us to see similar early season storms form for a variety of reasons.

Worth noting 1959 was a busy season.

A wide variety of small storms and big storms.

Gracie was big... a Category 4 hurricane.

Gracie had one of those tracks a storm tracker loves.

Forms close in and can't decide where it wants to go.

It makes the tracking so much more fun.

Talking tracking as in years ago people tracked.

Now we just look on our App or check online.

Each advisory came out six hours apart.

Three if there were watches and warnings up.

You wrote down the coordinates.

Rushed over to your handy dandy hurricane map...

(all the gas stations and news stations gave them out for free)

And you marked a new dot on the map.

God I love maps.

But Gracie was way before my time.

And living in Florida few people talked about her.

So I forget about her sometimes.

Few who were in her path of destruction forgot.

She was one of the ones that made memories.

This is what video looked like before your cell phone :)

Home movies put to music.

You think we hype storms now?

Wow nothing like news reels.

A "traveling catastrophe" 

Who remembers Hugo?

Yeah we've come along way since the 1950s.

Then they were excited to get a good radar picture of the eye.

By the 80s we were watching them travel from Africa.

Traveling West towards the Islands....

... slowly coming together.

Everything was slow then....

Waiting on new coordinates to be released.

Watching each new image from the satellite to come in...

Hugo hit South Carolina like it was the first time in forever.

And in ways it was ....

People moved in from places up north...

... people who thought hurricanes go to Miami I guess.

Miami watched and sighed a breath of relief...

"A Carolina Storm" old timers said.

Great video there... 

I remember Hugo.

I remembered Hugo the whole night of Hurricane Andrew.

All of Miami remembered the images from Hugo.

Yet so few remember Gracie.

I have a lot of friends and I do mean friends as some are close personal friends who have been releasing their forecasts for this upcoming Hurricane Season. There's a lot to compare and contrast in them though they all show basically the same thing and that is Hurricane Season is coming sooner rather than later. Coastal cities may have to watch this year as they did last year because it's more likely storms will form close to land vs out in the Mid Atlantic region though that will most likely happen come August and September when the water warms up and the dust dries out. 

I'm really not up yet to talk on generalities and mention lots of abbreviations to try and sound all academic and meteorologically intellectual though I'm sure I will as the season progresses. I worked and lived in Academia and it gets boring in ways and it's not like standing on the beach feeling the wind, hearing the howl of a hurricane approaching or standing on rocks or on the hood of a car to get good pictures and data and feel the hurricane up close and personal. If you have not done that on a Florida beach with all the palm fronds pointing in one direction and the trees bending a little as palm trees do you really have not seen a hurricane in all it's glory. 

I know Texas gets them and the wind howls as the sand blows and the waves get all frothy underneath the legs the beach house is built upon and yes hurricanes happen in Cape Cod but it's just not the same. Hurricane Donna in New York and nearby regions took down age old oaks and poplars and flooding was the big story. Hurricane Gracie caused "issues" far inland once she was only a tropical storm and that's part of the life process of a hurricane after landfall. 

So in a few days or a week or so I'll post the various opinions but like the NWS graphic that says North Carolina may have a slight risk of severe weather they really are trying to warn you that weather may happen. Personally I'm not a big believer in El Nino being a huge factor deep into the hurricane season when hurricanes will happen. I think there's a flip going on and I am not yet sure how much of a flip will happen and whether we go back towards Neutral or lunge towards a La Nina but I do know current conditions warrant concern in coastal cities from hurricanes that form closer in ... much in the way Michael pulled it together closer in and much in the way Jeanne and Frances found their groove as they sniffed landfall and trying to write about whether it will be a "slightly above normal" or "slightly below normal season" isn't doing it for me just yet. 

This is not my favorite time of year though Mother Nature is putting on a beautiful show in the Carolinas of Spring color as azaleas are popping and dogwood is at it's prime, pollen is falling and cherry blossoms are in bloom. Tulips are pushing up through the ground at record rate and red seems to be a big color this year. Severe weather is possible across the South. The times they are a changing.

Stay tuned...... 

Remember while reading lots of articles that the media will put out it only takes one and hurricanes that form close to the coast like Michael or Katrina after hitting her warm water spot there after traipsing across South Florida as a weaker storm (that formed just off shore of Florida) did a whole lot of damage so I don't really want to hear lots of academic discussion on how the water is cooler than normal or that El Nino was officially announced after it had been here a long while and is showing signs of possibly leaving sooner rather than later.

Be prepared.

Pay attention.

Watch your local weather experts.

Follow along on social media.

I watch several sites personally.

I love checking in with Mike because he's always relevant. A man for all seasons :)

www.spaghettimodels.com

Hurricanes happen and so does severe weather ...whether it's a marginal risk or slight risk weather can and will happen.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram. Follow me there for real time information.

Ps... Let's look back at 2018 because I think this season will be similar to 2018 in ways as the pattern has not changed that much overall and because of what I am seeing in April though things can change a lot before September as we all know. September Remember right? Anyone remember Alberto that made landfall early near where Hurricane Michael made landfall late in the season? Remember when Florence formed and was immediately written off by the experts as a "Fish Storm?" and remember when Leslie spun around randomly like a top that wouldn't stop spinning? Remember all the early preseason discussion on why 2018 could be a slower year than normal because of cooler waters in the MDR? Remember when indeed.