From far away Tampa Bay is getting slammed this morning.
Banding forming along the SW coast of Florida.
Pumping, evacuating energy well.
Can it maintain this development?
Funky green this morning on Funktop.
That's what it's called.
I didn't make it up!
TD 9 has slowly meandered into the Gulf of Mexico.
NHC used the word "meandering" so quoting them.
Temporarily steering currents pretty much collapsed.
That is forecast to change.
Pay attention to the NHC watches and warnings.
But remember TD 9 has not been a team player.
Moves slower and usually to the left of forecast.
At some point.............
.....it will get picked up by a front.
Below is TD 9 up close.
Our storm of the hour.
Waiting on upgrade to Tropical Storm.
Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are already posted.
Personally believe it will come in left of the cone.
Weather will be everywhere especially on the right side.
High tides on the right of landfall.
Worried up the coast on inland flooding.
More on that later today
I show this to keep in perspective the rest of the tropics.
Hurricane Gaston with a large eye.
They say you could fit the state of Connecticut inside it's eye.
That's an eye of a hurricane!
Sticking here with the same loop.
That's bizarrely beautiful.
Okay got more to say today so will stare later.
A little frustrating to watch the painfully slow evolution of TD9 as it's hard to see continuity at times in upgrades. Joe Bastardi writes long on this, you can Google it. He's right in ways though he likes to rant on it and I won't. It's enough to say Colin was named and yet Colin looked worse than this system. Why? They said it met parameters. As I was not in the room when they made the decision .. can't argue that. But models were in love with Colin and last few years we have become very model driven. Example being the hoopla over Invest 92 as it rolled off the coast of Africa as models oohed and aahed about it getting a 50% orange circle before it hit the water. A mediocre wave I thought, yet there were dire warning of East Coast landfalls possible while over the Congo. Yesterday they quietly pulled the plug on it..for now. Yeah... okay... and they complain the local weather stations hype the storm?
Compare and contrast to Tropical Depression 7
Colin with a misplaced center often.
Models loved it.
Never lived up to models.
Hit the same general area so interesting compare and contrast.
It is typical for patterns to exist and have similar tracks in same year.
So it's a TD and it should be upgraded in an hour or less.
If not at 8 the package should be out at 11 AM.
Either way there are watches and warnings up.
They need to be taken seriously.
At some point steering currents will change.
It will move faster than a meander.
I'll be back later with an update.
I'll most likely be updating throughout the day.
Thanks for your patience yesterday.
I took the day off to play.
Sometimes you got to.
This slow motion 10 days worth of tracking...
"we are expecting conditions to improve"
...has seemed like a month.
Went out with my husband to some event.
Dressed up, drank, laughed.
Had a BIG margarita!
Ignored the storm.
(except for looping on my phone ...)
Fun to have fun sometimes.
I had a really good night.
Expect to be busy next few online.
So thanks for your patience yesterday..
Cantore is having a really good morning.
By the beautiful Gulf of Mexico.
Going to compare and contrast different days.
So you can see how the water changes before a storm.
Again this storm is forecast to ride up the coast.
UPDATED!! Watches May Be Posted Later Today For Florida. Cantore A Coffee Nut. Someone Get That Man Some M&Ms & NOTE TO NHC PLEASE UPGRADE A TD
We are moving towards a Tropical Storm Watch.
Forecast for TD 9 is that it IS going to be a TS ...
This is why they are going to post watches.
The drone from the NHC did find tropical storm force winds.
Hasn't been upgraded they are evaluating their data.
Watching it on satellite imagery.
Tampa Bay Bucs changed their Thursday Game.
You don't do that unless you have good info.
And most of Florida along with Tampa Bay are watching.
Good news is that models are coming into agreement.
A kink in this set up might be a stall.
Or a loop.
Watch how strong the steering currents are down the road.
Also I'm worrying on tornadoes in it's path.
Storms like this at this angle to bring tornadoes often.
Josephine in 1996 brought a problem inland with Twisters.
Ocala, Gainesville and other inland cities could get TS weather.
Rain remains the big problem.
Again it's left sided so much of the coastline should be under the gun.
Under the gun for wicked weather.
Not HURRICANE FORCE CAT 2 winds..
Approaching Hurricane force maybe...
...if models nailed it.
We're not there yet Virginia and Carolina.
Close but no cigar as of 2 PM.
I'll update later.
Good discussion below:
My take on the models.
Front center stage Hurricane Gaston.
You see that one right?
Far to the left is an area of tropical weather near Texas.
Some how that got lost in the TD9 shuffle.
Convection of TD 9 down near the Yucatan.
It's center is the red dot further to the North.
Close to Carolina is a cluster of convection known as TD 8
THEY HAVE NOT BEEN UPGRADED AS OF 8 AM FROM NHC
And off of Africa is a huge, big new wave.
Those are our Atlantic suspects in the tropics.
Front heading down to pick up Gaston.
That's the forecast.
The spin over Georgia is an ULL
ULL = Upper Level Low
It's forecast to draw TD 9 up to the NE
Lows follow lows.
Basic rule of meteorology.
Gaston may do a brief tour of the Azores.
Now let's look briefly at the Pacific
Those are two cyclonic storms.
Hurricanes headed West
Hawaii is in their way.
Hawaii is in the US of A so...
..USA is getting tropical trouble.
Continental US getting NADA right now.
Safe for now for Labor Day Weekend
Great wind map.
Use it.. play with it.
It was done by an art student who had to make a map.
She worked with meteorology, computer friends.
My son worked on it.
Not supposed to say that but ...oh well.
It's awesome in that after they made that.
Then every one made them but bigger.
Again don't need no hurricane hunters to find the hurricane.
TD 9 remains ELONGATED
Weather will be on the East of this system.
So Tampa, Naples...
Every city along the West Coast of FL will get weather.
No matter where it makes landfall as a ???
Carolina Depression (my girl) is closed tighter.
There is some sense of the wave off of Africa.
This is where we are at...
..waiting on upgrade.
If you are a Tropical Depression 9 Junkie
All of us are in ways weather junkies whether we have a degree, multiple letters after our names or mentions in the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post like me. Whether we live on Hurricane City or eat a steady diet of Spaghetti Models we are all weather junkies. I woke up briefly at 5 AM looked down at my phone like someone who knows they shouldn't have that last beer.. my stomach got tight, I debated... I put it down in hopes that by ignoring it I'd wake up to another named storm. Abrams called Cantore a "wishcaster"as he knows the planes are still out there it could get upgraded (8 not 9) and that's one of our oldest jokes. Yes, I know Cantore ..how he thinks.. when he talks he says things I'm just about to write and it's annoying as I'm afraid if I write it people will think I am typing what he says word for word. I'm not. I have the same tape playing i my head. And yes a new Invest is a Christmas in July often or a new flavor of M & Ms (what's with that? what's next biscuit and gravy M&Ms ??)
People are obsessed on this...
It's not just Mike and Jim and Jim and Mike ..
...arguing over TD 8 or TD 9 deserving the name.
(biggest name for weather guys ...don't know why)
Somewhere two guys are arguing over iPhone or Android.
And my best friend Sharon is waiting on Facebook for me.
To argue about the Upper Level Low thing...
So stay tuned.
I'll update when there is something to say....
(that's a horse of another color)
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps .. Cantor e is the Candy Man ;)
Someone at TWC get him some M&M Coffee
I'll be back soon... as soon as something changes.
Note I do update thoughts in real time on Twitter.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm