2 Parts of Bertha... What a Drama... The Blob Part Looks Impressive Weather Wise. The Center NHC Tracking Blessedly Not as Much. Will See What Makes it to Texas. Hopefully Not Much.

Be aware I said online many times.

Bertha as a real storm.. 

...probablhy would not make it past

Cameron, Louisiana 

Remnants would go W towards Texas.

NHC shows that...

..tho they keep a S by Texas Coast.

That could happen...

IF

Center relocated to the strong convection

aka Blob

I'll be honest I have really enjoyed Bertha

Being very honest here. It's been difficult watching the ongoing discussion regarding Bertha as it's been a total disconnect with the reality of the situation. Early tropical storms in July in the Gulf are always wild cards with the possibility of intensification, but generally they unravel with their many parts. This is the way tropical storms in July behave that have competing centers or convective blobs far from the center or a tilted center and Bertha has had a clear cut center that spinned beautifully but it has been tilted in some levels of the atmosphere. This happens often, it's why so many tend to look "butt ugly" as shear shoves the convection away from the center while dry air tries to finish it off and yet in this case Bertha persevered and managed to do what she was going to do all along.

Models varied on the end game and some insisted it was going to Texas as a big storm and others early on, originally said it would pull North towards the trough and then showed it moving up through Alabama/Georgia headed towards the Carolinas bringing rain...or offshore depending on the timing of the trough. Timing of troughs in July (cold fronts) is not for beginners.  Then the  model shifts began racing off West towards Texas. Then showed it sliding along the coast and dipping down a bit. In truth many models were right and at the same time actually as some seem to latch onto one part of Bertha and others the other parts. And many times when the stronger center crosses the finish line the "energy" gets shifted to a competing center or strong area of convection like that football play where the ball gets passed back and forth and sometimes someone scores a touchdown and other times everyone collides and game over.

As we often explain before a winter storm in the Carolinas ...the atmosphere has many layers. I think it's Stephanie Abram who compares a possible ICE Storm to a big cheeseburger that has the bun, mayo, ketchup, a tomato, a burger, cheese, pickle, lettuce, onion and the bun. Let's go with that visual in your mind. But hopefully if you stacked your burger just right it doesn't fall apart when you bite into it. With July tropical storms there are many moving parts, nothing is static like it would be if this had intensified into a strong early season hurricane with all the parts vertically aligned. 

The basic forecast verifies, it is offshore (winds finally kicked up in Pensacola Beach) and edging near Gulfport and Biloxi on it's way towards New Orleans.... off shore mostly and sliding West while it's other part the main center is balancing one part over land inland and one part out over the water still. But there is little weather associated with the official center of Bertha today, some squalls, some wind but we will see in real time what really is happening.

This is not a hurricane. Upper Level Lows that form into Tropical Storms, especially in July, often are tilted and one center becomes the ghost center and yet the strong convection that was displaced due to the wind shear and dry air is still down over very hot water and still a tropical weather threat wherever it goes.

my son was involved designing wind.art

a precursor to Earthnull

talked endlessly on how it works.

I know how it works.

Same concept

and how we use Windy.com often.

Note how much of the top part of Bertha

Is up over land.

how much is down below.

Earthnull allows us to see different layers

in the atmosphere it is awesome!

When you go to windy.com and look at the rain filter you will see rain over Texas on Thursday, off the coast after it slid to the South of most of Louisiana and when you switch to the wind filter there's no real strong center just some wind. This is typical of July with Gulf Tropical Storms. They are far from perfect, but they can be rain makers, weather producers and have their own dangers. More so as it's NOT a Cat 1 or Cat 2 it's just a rainy day at the beach and people go out and do things they would do if this was Hurricane Bertha bashing Texas beach towns and on the move inland.  Unless a new center forms and takes over.  There was a play made into a movie Three Faces of Eve ... we have two faces of Bertha and one looking down from the North.

Woke up this morning and saw this.

DaBuh and I see faces.

It's some odd gift we have....

...creative ppl see things others do not.

We have the blob looking kind of organized.

Headed to Texas....

(yes that's a blob currently)

Old center being tracked....

then we have this....

...to the North pulling on Bertha.

Because I do have a degree in English.

And studied drama heavily.

Into plays and musicals.

I saw this.

I know it's not a Musical Comedy....

Again  not a musical comedy...

...but a great musical.

Back to Hurricane History.

Tropical Storm History here.

Michael Watkins who I have followed forever..

across many platforms

is awesome.

This post tells it all.

Saw this coming, it was evident all day yesterday this was happening as I watch the water vapor and visible imagery and know Hurricane History which includes wonky July close in Gulf Tropical Storms. I made a joke online not tagging @iCyclone but saying Josh that it was obvious that BERTHA as we knew her was NOT going to Texas would probably cough up onto Highway 90 near his Hurricane House as if Mother Nature is mocking him. Good thing this did not become a mean August or September hurricane, but I will add in some years patterns remain and close in is where it is at during El Nino so who knows what the rest of 2026 will bring....... 

Zoom Earth below...

Tracking the old center of Bertha

straddling the coastline just offshore

The BIG BLOB remains below.

Forecast is West Bound and Down....

Texas in the cross hairs

But what will be?

The mystery may not be over.

I have held my thoughts for the last two days as I did not want to muddy the forecast or picture or say things that the NHC was not saying until recently and online meteorologists are trying to explain what happened (doing a good job I'll add) and we have a ghost center, a big blob and someone could end up with a whole lotta weather.  NHC on it. NWS watching it. 

Original models verified in some ways as some energy is moving up towards the diving front that is actually not diving but moving slower than forecast because ITS JULY and the Carolinas and parts of VA are due for flooding rains. I may or may not be here. I may be on the road. Remember I am a Gypsy after all and you just never know with me what will be or where I will be. I owe ya all for that sad, depressing Dream song but it applies if you know the lyrics it even mentions "storm" so stay tuned. I'll update later tonight most likely or first thing in the morning.

The NHC did a good job with a difficult set up and a messy, misaligned July tropical storm that was tilted on mid levels and we will see what August brings. August is not so far away down the tropical road.

Besos BobbiStorm

I'm Southern.

I love comedies and laughing.

I love this movie.

Theme song for Bertha and her blob today

And aside from being a writer ...

..... I am at heart always

a dancer

Love Shakira :)

Excuse any typos

My laptop is being wonky

And I have a whole lot going on here.

60 MPH TS Bertha Close to the Coast moving NNW deviating N of the Forecats Track" (Just a bit)

 

Cone above.

Facts below.

Barometric pressure is 995 MB

29.39 inches.

This has really wound up and deepened.

Excellent image below from www.flhurricane.com 

Waited til the 2 PM before posting.

Mind you when I say "deepened"

I kept very low expectations....

...so it's exceeded my low expectations.

However.............

I felt IF it survived....

...it would find a way to thrive

Been a long day for me personally as there is a lot going on and if I was a developing tropical storm I'd say soon it's gonna rapidly intensify and my life is gonna get even crazier. So I've been watching Bertha, watching loops, listening to TWC, Fox Weather, Weather Nation (old school style to drone out the naysayers online who didn't think this would ever become a TS let alone this strong) and watching Bertha on my phone on Wxr Apps set to beach towns in FL so I can see the bands coming ashore while many online argue off it really is a tropical storm and whether it will get deep into West Texas. As my grandma would say "Lord have mercy" there is no end to every arm chair meteorologist who has an Aunt who is a weather psychic on Tic Toc! See the image below. This is a healthy tropical storm with an assymetrical appearance as the NHC forecast it would be.

This is a rather healthy tropical storm....

...for early July close in to the coast in the Gulf

in an El Nino Year.

It's about as good as it gets.

Against all the odds....

...that little ULL that wouldn't die.

Survived.

Got a name.

60 MPH Tropical Storm.

If you're not gonna be a Cat 3...

...be a cute Naked Storm

Love watching the spin.

You can see where it is going....

...you can see it spin.

Always had great spin.

Check out that spin.

Being bottom heavy the weather is to the South..

...tho there are some strong bands with squalls in FL

racing in across the beaches towards Tally.

Discussion addresses her appearance on visual imagery as I showed above where you can see the center of Bertha doing what it wants to do and moving along on her way. The Blob associated with Bertha is hanging out behind in the Gulf, keep an eye on that....just saying. Discussion says "Bertha has deviated North of the forecast track during the past several hours and the initial motion is NNW" indeed. I'd say who saw that coming but the answer would be me. It's less a surprise and more a reality as I have mentioned expect surprises and in general Bertha is following the general plan. I mean it hasn't raced off to the NNE.

I said yesterday I am not looking beyond Cameron Louisiana for track. Moisture connected with Bertha may get to Texas and parts may move more to the North depending on her timing, the flow the atmosphere how it actually evolves vs the forecast. I say that as forecasts are not set in stone.

How close does she center of Bertha...

...get to the coast.

Mobile. Pcola.

Gulfport. Biloxi.

Bay St Louis

New Orleans.

Looking upstream.... 

We have Bertha and it's blobby follower to it's West.

(my take on it)

the jet stream...the flow

looks to be dipping down a bit to the N of Bertha

Almost like it wants to get a close up view!

Will see what NHC says at 5 PM

As I said yesterday multiple times...

... multiple places

Think we should watch what Bertha does....

...everyone knows she's there lurking

let Bertha be Bertha

You know live and let live.

And when we see a pattern ...

..expect the pattern to continue some.

Or there could be surprises!

Besos BobbiStorm

From one B storm to another...

11 PM... BERTHA!! Updated! FL Panhandle to Mississippi Pay Attn.... Expect Surprises.

Main point is the pressure is dropping.

generally that's a sign it's doing well..

more to come Monday

*** 

From Zoom Earth

Will add in data after 11 PM comes out.

Recon found proof to upgrade.

from Earthnull alone I knew it'd be upgraded before 11 PM.

Meanwhile in Raleigh it's been a night.

Have had a crazy storm in Raleigh tonight.

Loud, heavy thunder and pounding rain...

for over 25 minutes...

Not flooding by me but in some places.

Nothing much has changed since 8 AM

I spoke on this online and in the blog a few times in that it's common for a large, developing Tropical Depression to sometimes have more than one possible center or the center seems to relocate a bit. The 11 AM Discussion explains that the center was relocated a bit to the South, yet the general game plan remains the same. They are calling it relocated vs movement. There have been some variables in models and that will happen until  this TD has a stronger defined center. They also opened the door for a sheared Bertha giving an assymetrical look to her down the road and in truth this is all subject to change depending on the timing of TD 2 on "wrapping up" better and I do think that is currently going on. I'd say that is a long run on sentence, and yet this process is long and rambling at times with moments of sudden pulsations. 

Another view of  TD2

Looks more consolidated than earlier.

Vs two blobs there is banding...

in multiple directions.

Center more solid, bulked up.

She's over very warm water.

Bathtub Hot so remember that!

I'll update at 5 Pm or when NHC blinks.

Thanks for reading....

...keep reading if you did not earlier

* * * * * 

TD 2 spinning close in.

This is a TEXT BOOK example of El Nino systems.

Close in Development.

Clinging to the coastline.

Cradled in the curve of the Gulf

Clining close to the Big Bend of Florida 

and yet its got it's eyes on Texas

And in between many coastal cities.
Many people.

There's the models.

There's the rain forecast.

Don't try to understand everything.

Follow the advice of the NHC

NWS

Weather Alerts on your phone.

Local Experts.

Sometimes these systems play possum.

Hope this isn't this happening.

Don't get distracted by this image.

Pay attention to the RADAR

I know... it's complicated!

Takes a village of models to properly forecast weather and a group of forecasters to interpret them into an easy to understand forecast & put out graphics such as the Cone. Tropical Depressions turning into Tropical Storm are often filled with surprises that pop up along the way. If there wasn't dry air and negative conditions where it's located between two highs causing "issues" than this would be one for the history books in ways. Close in systems can leave historical impacts even when they look wonky. So never turn your back on them, don't ignore them because they don't look great on some satellite image. Heating of the day comes along and storms explode somewhere far from the current center of the current storm, pay attention but don't ignore the actual center. And, they can begin to lunge for the coast and/or stay in the water carefully avoiding the coast and strengthen.  

This is not a long tracking tropical wave that we have a good feel for and a history of how it seems to respond to enviornmental conditions thrown at it..........it's not that sort of storm. Forming from an Upper Level Low means out of the gate this wants to spin and yet they have structual issues while forming with regard to convection especially as there is dry air to the North and it's squished between two Highs.

And, then there is my friend DaBuh who has some second sense when it comes to seeing where things will go and getting straight to the heart of the matter and a while back... even before this post he was pointing to where the current track is and where the storms are currently popping up. So yeah that happened!

Will update throughout the day. But, these are my basic thoughts:

1. Pay Attention to the NHC, NWS, Wxr Alerts on Apps (turned on) & local experts.

2. Expect that somewhere along the way there will be surprises. 

3. Stay prepared and aware and never under estimate a close in Gulf system as they can be a bull in a china shop...somewhere, someone is going to have trouble.

4. Keep your eye on the short term forecast and know the long term one may change, so stay aware.

stay tuned updating in real time....

...as real data comes in the NHC updates.

Updated 5 PM TD 2 Still Forecast by NHC to Become TS Bertha ... Recon Went In. TD 2 aka Wannabee Eg Is Sitting & Spinning Owning the Eastern Gulf - Lots of Room to Breathe

 

Recent Cone. 

Similar to last.

Nudged a wee bit to the South.

It's all a guessing game.

Generally she'll pull West.

Currently, as of now.....
..everyone in this close up should pay attn!

Old saying.

6 of 1 ...half a dozen of another.

My husband is cooking dinner as I do not cook Sunday Night :) and I'm watching women's gynastics on mute... so much spinning. I was looking for local weather for fun to see what they said, but no news or weather and left it on. I know what we drove through so I know, just curious on local experts. Spinning must be the name of the day. NASCAR is at North Wilkesbor Speedway and weather has been an issue as we have had crazy thunderstorms all day. Rarely watch gymnastics but the theme of the day is spinning

Watching Miss TD 2 the contestant for the name Tropical Storm Bertha SPIN and when I say spin, her spin takes up the entire Eastern Gulf. 

Yes she has a dry air problem.

But the same flow that's driving down the dry air...

..is also feeding her with moisture.

To be a Tropical Storm and thrive....

...she needs moisture.

She is breathing... will give her that.
She's definitely spinning.........

Short term forecast is for her to continue and spin, she lost a bit of latitude but that's more (in my opinion) looping or turning on a dime around and around. Check out those storms explode across the backbone of Cuba to the Southeast. In color on IR this is incredible to watch and the way the 2026 Hurricane Season is forecast to go ... enjoy the spinning. Time will tell where exactly she goes and how close to the coastline she gets. Does she slide along just to the South of Hurricane House and wave at Josh (@icyclone) sitting on his porch watching the waves and feeling the breeze or does she give him a whole lot more than a wave?  And, if she slides along to the West or North of West she will cause a lot of weather drama on her way to possibly Texas. Texas has been in the flow for rain and as much as I hate to say it, it's logically it would, could draw her closer. And then what?  This all comes down to timing. The longer she stays off shore and out in the Gulf.... if the dry air begins to weaken she could become stronger than many expect. If not she'll just be the star of the show this week as we wait to see what she's really got under the hood!

Check out the power on her SW side.

Look at the curvature bands to the ENE.

And to the NNW it's all spinning.

Worth remembering that this is a developing system. This is a work in progress. The center could change and get relocated. I'm not saying it will...I am saying ......it's a work in progress and large, systems such as this sometimes have competing centers. And small systems are easier to fall apart than this spinning gyro that's been spinning since Friday at least. Again the ULL was involved this is NOT a tropical wave.

Be back later. Eggplant Parmigiana on the menu here though some people will be eating hamburgers and others shrimp tonight. Just don't eat the lettuce ...oh the 2020s just keeping 2020ing. 

Keep reading if you did not already.

I do not usually listen to this song.

But it's classic for a spinner and ......
we got a spinner!!

I live on instinct so ....

...enjoy.

What highway will Bertha take...
...and where will she go??

NHC has her a TS down the road.

incredible..........

***** 11 AM below*****

Doesn't that pic just scream TD!!

And NHC upgraded before recon ...

And we have a Cone!

Some quick comments here as I will update the blog later today after Recon gets in there and we have direct data. After that more so when that data is put into the next run of models with the data from the recon put into the models. Either way, TD2 forecast by NHC to be TS Bertha will lollygag around in the Gulf close in before finally making her move. I'll add to that never trust the first Cone to know for sure where it will go. As it is close in and it's a large as they say "sprawling" system impacts will be felt far from the exact center of the cone. 

Short Term: It should stay in the same location, sort of anchored a bit while it tries to build on it's great bones. It is lacking on moisture currently and while storms flare up it needs to hold onto that moisture some... to become Big Bad Bertha! 

Long Term: IF current models verify it gets pushed West by the expanding High Pressure to it's East and models currently favor the Go West Girl paths vs up into FL and Georgia. Again we need better info or as we used to say Down South ... More Better Info.

It's quite noticeable to anyone looking at the Water Vapor Loop that dry air (that dark Navy Blue) to it's NNE sliding into it's center. It's also easy to see how large this system is and it has maintained this large for the last few days. Also it has this "need to spin" and that is inherent in the formulative factors involved here. When you have an ULL that mixes it up with other features it is more likely to spin first than the opposite way while watching a very large, wet African Wave lumber across the Atlantic in search of spin that generally happens down the road. While there are always those Prime Time African Waves that come off with Low Pressure from day one. They are few and far between and more so will be this year. 

So let's let her spin. Let's let the NHC do their thing and drop dropsondes into her and then review the data. And for the rest of us we can defitnitely enjoy the aesthetics of how "pretty" she looks. Big yes, but look at her spin!  More to say later. 

The link to the excellent discussion from the NHC is below. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191452.shtml?

Also remember that this should move slowly and as it's large and is prone to sudden flare ups of convective energy areas nearby close to the storm over land may fefel it's impact even while it's far offshore. 

Does it go to Nola?

Maybe Mississippi then slide into Louisiana.

It Texas in "to do list" for travel?

Stay tuned.

Stay aware.

IF it can mix out the dry air...

..with that incredible spiral...

well it could intensify faster than expected.

NHC has it at 60 MPH

Stay tuned...

Song added in later so check back later

(breakfast is being served...)

Ps always expect the unexpected!

Invest 91L Formed ... 50/50 Chances of Development as of Saturday Night

 

Just keeping it short here. Invest 91L formed as I believed it would, but beyond that there are many questions. Currently Recon is scheduled to go in tomorrow and we should have more answers after we get direct data. This is a huge bubble of trouble, potential trouble and energy that likes to spin. That said, there's lots of dry air and shear everywhere and yet close in development has happened in set ups such as this one before so we have to watch. I'm watching.

It has this huget circular appearance.

And I'm talking since Friday.

Often "spin" is hard to get going.

Here we have spin....

...we have convection.

Convection pulsating.

UP and down and UP

Where this ends up ....

... not sure yet.

So let's look at the models.

We still have multiple scenarios.

Will see Sunday Morning...

...first visible imagery.

Recon.

Radar.

Close in makes it easy.

And due to dry air and shear...

...it would difficult to intensify fast.

should it form.

But it could develop some.

Either way the rain is needed.

For now.. check back Sunday Morning.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Well for now it's all about Florida.

Close in to Florida.

but ... everyone waiting to see ...

If it forms.

Where it goes?

Area Close In to Florida Looks Like It Wants to be an Invest. African Wave Still in the Water Swimming Lower Chances. Somewhere We May Get an Invest. Stay Tuned! Stay Cool!

 

This is the 2 day forecast.

Small li'l chance.

But in the 7 day.... 

...we are at 30%

The wave by Africa is down to 10%

would not totally count it out yet.

Let's go close in.....

Kind of impressive flare up...

....for the last several hours.

Clearly partially over FL

being fed clearly by moisture.

Long circlular feature feeding into it.

If Mimic was only working....

...would be easier to see 

Earthnull shows nothing much.

But change parameters to 500 

As there are many layers in the atmosphere.

It's always worth a look.

We do not go by 500 ...but it's a look down thru layers.

IR up close and personal.

Something gonna on....

...but must sustain this for a while.
Before NHC makes an Invest.

But we may have an Invest over the weekend.

IF ...this continues.

I'm curious.

I'll update Saturday Night or Sunday Morning, depending if the NHC elevates it to Invest. I could show models but they are sprayed all over the place and they change on every run. It could cross Florida. Currently discussion it moves to the left and into the Gulf. Then models that show it makes a circle in the East Gulf and takes off or just fades away. 

The next name up is Bertha. Somewhere, eventually Bertha will show up. As for me I'd be good with an Invest or TD or some nice rain in Raleigh to chase away the heat and lack of air movement!

Meanwhile Chicago is all shades of...

....yellow...orange and sepia.

Depending on the time of the day.

Miami kid love Chicago...

..always good for photography.

He should get some wild pics in this trip.

Go slow if you have smoke....

....or high heat.

Especially a high heat warning.

Bad air quality.

Hope for rain...

...hope for the pattern to change.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

Enjoy a nice Summer Song !!