A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, March 25, 2021
NO MORE GREEK NAMES! New Alternative List.... In Case of a Busy Season. More Changes at NHC Y Not Monica Tina or Angela??
Link to this story below.
This did raise a few eyebrows.
Why? Really??
I have a brother who lives in Greece and I kind of liked using his alphabet for Xtra Hurricane names that manage to sneak in under the wire in a busy season. It was kind of fun I thought. Also Greek names often are names of muses and I'm very Pro Muse because well muses have rights too! But, alas the Greek Alphabet was pulled faster than bad guacamole at Chipotle's menu! And somewhere along the line the powers that be chose a new list of names that are shown down below. I'm not saying they are not nice names but why Jacobus and Sophie made the list is beyond my pay grade. I've always been partial to Kappa and Mu myself, maybe put Mu back into the Pacific.... Sophie is a cute name, does that mean it will not not be on the regular list should a storm like Sandy be retired again or will they change this list next year? So many questions. Apparently "the committee" made the changes, sad because I'd love to have seen Sophie on the regular A Team List of names rather than the B Team List personally.
A look back at last year's names.
The very hyper season of 2020!
Perhaps we should all submit names to "the Committee"
What's your favorite name?
What names would YOU like to see added.
I'd vote for Sophie and Oscar
Max and Lola!
Perhaps Bobbi or maybe Babette!
Anyway what is in a name anyway?
Something to think on...
We thought Andrew was "weak" in 1992.
We were wrong.
Names have significance after the season is over.
Sandy was cute or reminded people of Aunt Sandy.
Sandy became a name that conjures up disaster...
...a powerful, long tracking hurricane!
A name to remember.....
Stay tuned.
Let's see what other changes will pop up this year.
Did DaBuh really say 90s??
Mid or upper 90s??? Oh my..........
How is that even possible in March??
Start preparing now for 2021 Hurricane Season!!!
The truth is the most important thing for you to know and to do is how to properly prepare early for the 2021 Hurricane Season as the waters are warming up and when the heat is on ... storms form early even before May 15th because things work according to Mother Nature's schedule often not ours. People who really know what the main things to worry on and that's actual development not names. It's like when the Miami Dolphins went out to change the uniforms back to a retro look similar to the Undefeated Season, alas it's about the team and their strength or weaknesses not the uniforms as they learned. What is in a name?
SE Coastal Low & May 15th NHC Begins Issuing TWO - Tropical Weather Outlook. Will the Official Hurricane Season Soon Start on May 15th?
So let's talk tropics or more so....
...let's talk about the NHC.
They have basically decided to start issuing the product most of us call the TWO meaning the Tropical Weather Outlook as of May 15th, two weeks before the official June 1st start of the Hurricane Season. Often, over time, there is something to talk about during that period and when the NHC feels it needs to it has to put out a Special Tropical Weather Outlook as we have seen often the last few years. They also want to move up the official start of the season to May 15th but that's an ongoing discussion point in weather circles. Some, like Rob from www.crownweather.com asked in his recent email to his subscribers if we really need a specific date at all for the start of the season. I mean in reality if there is something there they will go live and give information. A date is a line in the sand, yet time really isn't always linear but more chaotic as we have had tropical systems in almost every month of the year including December way past the end of the Hurricane Season.
On another level, the use of the "Official Start of the Hurricane Season" allows networks and agencies to properly publicize the Hurricane Season and amp up discussion on Hurricane Prep. On another level nothing amps up concern than seeing a Hurricane forming in late May somewhere or even a Tropical Storm pop up off the coast of Florida from the tail end of an old cold front. It happens and often until someone is in the cross hairs or until there is a Hurricane Warning many refuse to take it seriously, and then again others take it seriously every month of the year. When they go to Publix and see Tuna on a "buy one get one free" sale they throw one tuna into a bucket labeled "Hurricane Supplies" and the truth is you cannot really change human nature. You can try but people tend do stick to their own inner clock that can only be changed by possibly going through a big hurricane such as Andrew or Katrina in which case you either move to Colorado and get out of Dodge or you begin preparing on January 1st for the hurricane season.
Works for me because there is always something watch in May. If this was May or even late April they may have officially designated the area off the SE coast currently as something there to watch but not expected to develop in a tropical way etc, etc, etc.
That's a real time look this morning.
Quite the coastal low.
Speaking of that are off the SE coast, "wow, doesn't it look well developed on Earthnull!" People like Dabuh and I are always watching and it's fun to joke around and banter in March, because there is no pressure of a Category 4 headed towards a populated town about to turn their lives around. Patterns develop, set up...rearrange and then as we get closer to hurricane season the pattern shows it's face in a more visceral, threatening way. Today it's high surf in some places, strong wind at the beaches and just another day in Raleigh watching as the pollen build up on the pine trees and wondering when they will pop open with maize colored pollen coating out cars like butter on popcorn. There's a "season" but we all know some years it pops in March when it's been unseasonably warm or late in April if it's been cooler.... the same with the tropics, they don't pay attention to dates on a calendar.
What's Going on Off the Southeast Coast? Tropical? Subtropical? Or Just Good Ole Weather??
There's been a lot of talk lately.
And I have stayed out of the Fray...
What is it and could it be tropical or subtropical? It's weather and it's kicking up the wind gradient as seen below on Earthnull creating a stormy set up along the beaches of the Southeast coast. First it parked off of Jax and then another area closer to the Caolinas popped up and it's handing energy back and forth like a quarterback passing to a receiver who then throws it back to the quarterback who then tries to throws it downfield ..........usually, but not always, those plays don't play out well though they do get a lot of airtime play on the nightly sports round up as comic relief. Sometimes it produces a touchdown, but more often not and that's where we are today with this system.
But what is interesting is the pattern that produces it and the models that keep trying to produce a real semi tropical/subtropical low in that area and add that in with fronts still moving around in that area now doing the "how far down into Florida will we really get" dance it's possible that early season action in the tropics will begin in this area as we have seen often in the past. The area off of the Southeast coast is prime time for early season spins up that do not go far but do create attention and waves at the beach.
Early Season 2012 produced such storms.
When people say 2012 with regard to the tropics people think "Hurricane Sandy" but Sandy was just an exclamation point to what was a busy season along the East Coast that ended with Sandy going Boo for Halloween!
Just something to think on while listening to the debate online or staring at the loops wondering what is going on with that area known as a coastal low, it hugs the coast kicks up the surf and waits for a ride up the coast or out to sea. Look how tight that gradient is below along the coastline.
So what is that?
A funny heart?
A mask?
Lots of wind along the beaches.
Change the parameters a bit.
Looks like a Low.
And it is ......
Not tropical, not subtropical.
It's weather.
There we are above this morning.
Multiple cells ... Low Pressure.
WIND
On Wednesday it's doing the Outer Banks.
Don't get caught up in the hype.
Weather people love to watch the loops...
Run the models.
Change is in the air. Spring Solstice has come and gone. Storms love to form around solstices and they have been doing it since man first figured out there was a connection between the Moon cycles and the Seasons. Surfers watch waves begin to show up after days of a flat ocean and they stare and watch waiting and knowing things are about to change. Birds show up in the neighborhood on their way somewhere from wherever they have been for the winter. Leaves appear on the maple tree and flowers begin to spring up everywhere reminding you it's Spring!
The Hurricane Season is 71 days away officially and most likely we will see pre-season action so take this as a sign that everything is working the way it should according to Mother Nature's time and if this keeps continuing the area will eventually, probably produce an early system that actually gets a name or a designation. Until then my crew of tropical friends will be running models, watching loops and wondering on early waves coming off of Africa while watching close in to see if something might form somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Cape Hatteras... it's a breeding ground for early action.
As for be busy with the coming holiday of Passover that takes more preparation than the whole 8 day holiday but which is fun once it gets rolling. May you be well, happy and healthy! Keep your sense of humor, remember to breathe in and breathe out and if you get a chance to look up at the stars or catch a sunset ... say a prayer of thanks and enjoy the beauty of the moment.
Thursday - Waiting in the Carolinas to See What Will Happen. Tornadoes Yesterday. Foggy in Raleigh. Storms in North Florida. The System is on the Move...
This is where we are today ...watching weather in real time vs models that make predictions that do or do not come true. Sometimes they come true in part but not really what they predicted a few days back. Weather is NOW .. happening.....this minute ... evolving almost faster than I can type. I woke up to fog this morning and when it didn't go away by 10 AM it was obvious we had the Cold Air Damming situation setting up... the warm front lingers to the South and the Low to the West is tight and spinning fast and at some point somewhere it will be warm enough for serious trouble in the Carolinas. Currently I'm worried on the area we call "Down East" which means South of the Sandhills and East towards the Beaches or as we say in these parts "East of 95" where BBQ sauce takes on a whole new meaning. I'm also worried on the Triad and definitely don't think Raleigh is off the hook, it's a sneaky system that can flare up fast anywhere. The recent strong Tornado down by the coast where hurricanes usually make landfall is bugging me and that area could once again deal with that sort of threat today. Hope they get lucky this time.
In the South we divide ourselves up by the way we cook our food and what exactly it is that we cook the most!
The biggest concern currently is that as the threat for an extremely severe outbreak of tornadoes begins to fade away ... the concern is that people think they are out of the woods because we went down from a 4 to a 3 on the NWS graphic page. The cool foggy air lulls you into thinking it's impossible anything wild is going to go down in a few hours and that's not good. Actually as shown on Twitter all morning receding fog and CAD giving way to an approaching warm front can infact
Tornadoes Across the South... Now the Line Moves Towards the Coastal South.. East of the Applachians - Georgia, the Carolinas Waiting to See Hail, Severe Winds, Thunderstorms and More Tornadoes.
Late night, early morning thoughts.
Not much to add to what I wrote on Tuesday. The tornadoes expected today developed across a wide area and the line is on the move tonight. The image above shows where it will be late Thursday and while green is a nice color for St. Patrick's Day .. red on this map is never a good color to see ever. Let's call it the Danger Zone.
Everyone under the red zone is in danger. Loop below.
I stayed offline today mostly to get some things done and to avoid the hype and wait to see how things play out in real time. At times I just looped and watched the jagged line sweeping across the South sending various meteorological torture to an area still trying to clean up from last year's hurricane season before dealing with newly named storms of the next Hurricane Season and the reality of Spring bringing Severe Weather too soon to an area all too familiar with destructive weather.
There were a lot of tornadoes today across a wide area, fast moving spin ups and some lingered too long as opposed to one or two long tracking EF5 tornadoes. As things calm down tonight in the Deep South the Coastal South East of the Appalachian Mountains try to go to sleep and not obsess too much about what tomorrow may bring. I'm blogging because I owe y'all a blog and it's how I process things.
#1 Check out that tightly wound up Low Pressure.
#2 To the East you see the triangular shape of the clouds.
#3 You can see where tornadoes could form at some point.
That's an impressive signature.
Let me make it clear, this is no surprise event descending out of the blue. Many schools were cancelled, and others will send kids home early tomorrow. All Covid testing and vaccination appointments were suspended today and are being rescheduled for Friday in the Raleigh area. That's how serious they are taking it. I was at Belk briefly to return something and the lady behind the counter started talking fast, nervously about what Thursday would bring and how she should prepare. I was impressed she knew what level concern we were at and what problems this weather could bring; old timers in these parts know well what early Spring tornadoes can do to the Carolina are and especially this part of the Piedmont. Charlotte will deal with it first, South Carolina and North Georgia will feel the impact as we watch in real time to see how it evolves. Then it's our turn......
There are just so many factors and the timing and severity of the event is dependent on various factors that are so fluid that even the local experts cannot say for sure how it will play out. They can say for sure that we are in the danger zone for extremely severe weather of one kind, or many kinds from strong thunderstorms to hail to STRAIGHT LINE WINDS across a WIDE AREA and the always concerning possibilities of Tornadoes. The reason I capitalized straight line winds above is because if you get a long system moving rapidly and that line holds together it can slam into many areas across a wide span of miles bringing down trees, power lines and hopefully no Church Steeples. I've seen that in this area... things just take flight and slam into something down the road or a huge oak comes crashing down and a line of pines can cripple a community.
But most of all in the Carolinas, especially North Carolina, you are never sure what you will get until you get it. It's like a box of unmarked chocolates with no warning on the box that some may have Red Hot Chili Peppers inside just when you were expecting caramel centers. There is no telling for sure as of tonight as weather in this neck of the woods always evolves in real time be it snow storms or hurricanes or severe weather and tornadoes. In the Winter the Fronts get stuck at the VA NC border and we watch as winter happens to our North, in the summer we wait to see where the heaviest rain and weather from a landfalling Hurricane happens and how far inland impacts will go and in the Spring when a Warm Front is pushing North rapidly as a cold front is also approaching we wait and see how far North it gets into North Carolina. Hopefully this line does not stop and visit South of the Border, because it would get really messy and we do so love our Iconic Tourist Spot.
So we do what we need to do:
Charge our phones, phone batteries, laptops and tablets; yet never forget the old iPod often used mostly while flying in the days before Covid happened. Keep them charged, do not fully charge your phone then spend 2 hours talking to Aunt Martha and Uncle Ted to assure them you are fine only to find out the power went out and your phone was on 8%. Keep them charged fully.
Know where to go in case of a tornado or serious weather... a basement or a reinforced room such as a bathroom or interior closet... only professional chasers should chase and if you are standing by the window keep one eye on the sky and one eye on the radar... the local networks will be online all day covering it. Download your Apps for local coverage, yet keep those phones fully charged and don't use the battery up as if you lose power it may take a while to have it restored.
MAKE SURE YOUR WEATHER ALERTS ON YOUR PHONE ARE TURNED ON!
If you own a weather radio, use it.
Put your car in the garage or near the house and do not park it under a large tree!
Know where your valuables are such medicine, money and diapers if you have a toddler. Priorities!
If things get wonky fast let your family know where you are staying, if things stay calmer than expected and your area is not directly impacted let everyone in your Family WhatsApp group know you are okay. Stay home and off the roads, trees will most likely be down somewhere and crews will be out trying to assess the damage and do what they can to restore power. Really hoping everyone will be okay and we are just in for a nasty ride, but until I see how the line develops tomorrow morning I won't know deep down what I think. Thanks to my weather expert friends for reaching out and sending me their thoughts and concerns.
I can say Charlotte may be under the gun or the Sandhills are more problematic than Raleigh and I wonder as always when Raleigh's luck will run out because it's been a while since we had a significant severe weather event across a wide area. Greensboro is often in it when Raleigh isn't yet every event is unique, different and dangerous.
I'll update Thursday late in the morning when we see how the warm front is doing, if it's raining or it remains foggy, if Cold Air Damming begins once again to happen (it happened a few times this week but will it be a factor tomorrow...) and if Tornadoes are happening or if it seems Straight Line Winds w of let's say 60 to 80 MPH are possible and trust me Carolina Pines don't do well in those conditions nor do large heavy oak trees.
Always Mother Nature shows us what is coming down the road... it's not looking pretty even if the image above is beautiful to look at it's not so beautiful when you are on the ground watching everything go wild all about you.
I'll update late Thursday morning,
Besos BobbiStormn
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps.. Remember I'm a tropical girl who always prefers dealing with hurricanes to these multiple unknown entities with too many variables. While I have a sincere fascination with hail I'd prefer a hurricane any day to a tornado. Yet, again I remind you these sort of straight line winds moving fast of strong Tropical Force Winds (65 MPH) can do real damage and can be deadly so take precautions to stay safe when the storm arrives and don't be lulled into a false sense of reality when the morning is quiet or foggy because trust me it's coming.
March Brings a Mix of Weather to the South... Hot Weather AC Weather, Cold Fronts with the Heat ON... and Tornadoes and Severe Weather
So it seems we are in for nasty weather on Thursday.
Mid day today it's 39 degrees here in Raleigh.
When the warm air flows in and it meets the cold air.
Kaboom! Wicked Weather.
I know it's been a while. But hey this is my "off season" when I feel a bit lost because not waking up to check on "my wave" or a newly named storm. Football season is gone, gone, gone and Winter is trying to fade in the rear view mirror but it keeps coming on strong after a few days of warm weather. This is the perfect set up for trouble in a good part of the South where one day it feels like summer and the next you rummage around in the closet for your warmer jacket and the boots that have not been put away yet. When you get this sort of Texas Two Step weather wise you are headed for serious severe weather trouble.
His tweet explains well why The South is under the gun!
The lid is on, it cannot escape to the NE
Yeah, you get lulled into this false sense of security where you begin putting away your winter clothes and begin debating if you are going to plan something or rather go to the beach for as many days as possible or both and then you realize it's freezing and the cold air is coming in from outside because you left the window open a bit and it's not the AC making you feel the cold breeze. Yes this time of year you run the AC or the Heat on any given day, especially if you have allergies. Supposedly it's going to be back in the 70s on Thursday with a warm, srong Southerly breeze as the next system rolls through and when I say roll I mean like a rolling ball or a wrecking ball. It's gonna wreck someone's world around these parts but where ain't exactly clear. Some models show it stronger down East near the coast or in the Sandhills, other models hold onto Raleigh being under in the Bulls Eye and then there could be a system after that one. It's got a name, it's called Severe Weather Season. One person I watch when we have Severe Weather in Raleigh is Vern on Spectrum News. Yes, I have cable news and yes I have it just for Spectrum News as they do "weather on the ones" meaning every 10 minutes they do a great weather segment... more weather than you get on The Weather Channel. So if you are in the Carolinas follow Vern always but especially when there is Severe Weather as Severe Weather to him is what Hurricanes are to me... https://twitter.com/WeathermanVern I've often wondered why he's not on TWC, but their loss is our viewing area's gain as he is good! And y'all know how picky I am about weather people who I follow.....
Awesome sunrise the other day.
Made me feel like we are getting closer...
..to really wicked weather round here.
Mike below is always watching weather.
Mike lays out the timing...
I'm sure you follow my friend.
And Mike IS a friend of mine.
Even Mike who is on "vacation" this week is following the wild weather in the South while sipping his name brand beer and enjoying Low Country Boil, it's a thing... there's corn on the cob thrown into the mix and in Florida there is always fresh corn growing. Following Mike is addictive, trust me but if you are a weather person, especially a tropical weather person, it's a healthy addiction.
Weather people are awesome photographers. Check out that picture that needs to be a wall poster as it's truly weather art. That's a cloud, not a fancy blue agate rock.... truly beautiful photograph and most weather people are by nature photographers as well. Chasing in Oklahoma this week is like trying to drive fast in a traffic jam, everyone who does severe weather is out there and I know as I'm following a few friends vicariously riding down the back roads in my mind. I have chased, but mostly hurricanes unless there was a line of severe weather rolling through the Florida Keys then we'd head South and hunker down on the Bayside waiting for a line to sweep across the sky with dangling waterspouts and occasionally a small twister. Some of my favorite pics were taken in the Keys, though any truly wild wall cloud or roll cloud will get my heart pumping fast.
I took that picture.
Down in the Florida Keys chasing.
Photos do not do it justice.
The wind was blowing hard, fresh and wild.
That line was moving fast.
So fast every frame looked different.
So low yet moving fast.
When the rain came...
...we had to take cover fast.
Wilder than a Cat 1 Hurricane trust me.
Monsoon Weather in Tropical Miami...
.... nothing like it on the Plains trust me.
I've been in a corn field during tornado weather..
..in Iowa... similar but different.
The approaching wind makes ripples on the water..
..and then waves, foamy and wild.
Dixie Alley is dangerous for chasers.
Dangerous for residents.
Why?
Because it's not the wide open Plains...
It's hilly, forested and thetrees hide what's coming.
Chasers prefer Texas and Oklahoma.
Oh and add in we often get nighttime tornadoes.
Nighttime tornadoes are obviously more deadly.
In the dead of the night no one sees them coming.
Most people are sleeping who aren't chasing.
So let's see what unfolds later this week.
For those of us who are always watching, even if we are not blogging every day, we knew this threat was coming and we know a strong, wild tropical like low may form off the Carolinas soon enough as the forecast models move into the 4 and 5 day period vs the far out view that Dabuh does best. I like to watch Thor (that's how I think of him) when he does his weather videos as he just keeps looping long term models over and over so I can get a better feel for it than when I watch too many model loops and it's like trying to smell the 7th perfume in Saks in NYC where you have lost all sense of smell and no not talking Covid. Models make me dizzy if I watch too many of them so I wait to see what my friends show until we are closer to hurricane season or a real strong Tornado threat here so yes I will be looping models today and tomorrow. Okay, again I'll say it. All meteorology people are mesmerized by geology so yes I watch the volcano videos also....
Yeah when it was hot we'd drive over to Matheson Hammock or down to towards the Keys with friends who wanted to fish or swim or just get away and get some air. Miami in August is not for the faint of heart, it breaks the AC or the AC bill breaks the bank as you run it as cold as it gets. I lived in tank tops and short shorts or I'd walk over to the JCC nearby with my best friend with one of my father's big tee shirts over my bikini. Not sure which bothered my father more the bikini or the fact that I wore his V neck white undershirts out... my mother was not amused but she was usually too busy studying or doing art to notice I left ;) Life was easy in ways then and fun, yet to be honest you have to find "fun" wherever you are ...however old you are or whatever you are doing. Yes, we had skateboards then but they were not for breaking your shoulder bone like my son who did Extreme Skateboarding but for getting around and letting the dog pull your or your cousin pull you along fast as he rode his bike and you held onto the jump rope while on your skate board ;)
Good song, but a good singer most people haven't heard of but who is awesome.
For some reason Blogger won't let me find that link above that is obviously on YouTube so I guess they push what they push and it's the way of the world these days. That was a comment, not a song cue!
Spring & Allergy Season On the Way. Hurricane Season... When Should It Begin? Sharks off the Carolinas & How to Find Shark Teeth at Myrtle Beach. Did You Know There's Always a Sunset at Margaritaville Myrtle Beach? True Too!
As for the Hurricane Season I really don't want to go there yet. Trying to talk tropical in March is like screaming into the wind except for with those totally tropically obsessed. March Madness is the topic in the Carolinas and a good part of the world that was deprived of their favorite sports addiction last year by Covid and currently it looks as if this might happen one way or the other. Brackets are bigger right now than tropical speculation. As for the NHC wanting to change the date of the Hurricane Season possibly to sometime in May, I will talk on this later. I do agree with something Rob has said from www.crownweather.com on his emails he sends out to his subscribers, he's very chatty on the subject so if you are interested get a subscription from him he is well worth it and during hurricane season he goes into great detail on different areas not usually mentioned by many online who talk this model vs that model; he does talk models but he's way better than your average model chaser there is nothing average about him. He's good and yes I agree in ways, except to say people like dates so they can gear up their coverage and get good ratings by hyping the coming Hurricane Season but in reality hurricanes happen often many times before June and after November and they have for years. Christopher Columbus who knew weather as it relates to his voyages that were timed carefully complained that he experienced a tropical system in I believe February. Google it, it's true though tropical like systems form but are not named because it's too early or too late so treated as a regular Coastal Low often.
These days the NHC seems hot to trot on naming anything that spins, so it's only logical they would expand their coverage beyond the old fashioned deadlines. Time will tell. I'll talk on it another day.
Today I'm knee deep in chores on my to do list and not much going on weather wise in my world. But I'll leave some information below with a link to a good site you may want to save. My local "Spectrum News" did a segment on sharks off the Carolina coast and put this site up to show the location of shark sightings. In truth this is common especially in years when the water warms up early and I watch it to watch what the water temperatures are and what the patterns are and of course what might happen early this coming hurricane season. I also love going to Myrtle Beach where I watch the sunrise, walk on the beach, sometimes find a shark tooth and then go watch the sun set over Broadway at the Beach's lagoon. Hope to go there soon!
A good site shown above and linked to below is about tracking sharks or perhaps it's a useful site depending on how much you are at your local beach or you just find sharks fascinating or are bored with a lack of snow storms or hurricanes to track. Note how many sharks there are currently off the Carolina coastline and yes you can click on the number and it tells you the type of shark that's touring your beaches; if you have never been to Myrtle Beach or the beaches nearby you don't know the joy of searching the shoreline for shark teeth. It's a thing there and I've picked up several myself that I keep in a little box but I promised one to a little guy so next trip down to Miami I must remember to take one with me! For now I'm dreaming of Myrtle Beach which has somehow become my local MB vs the one down in Florida. Actually my favorite beach is the southern end of Pawley's Island that has inched it's way above a few beaches down in the Florida Keys. Happy Shark Hunting!
You'd dream of Myrtle Beach too if you knew it the way I do! Check out the images below of both the sunrise and a hand full of shark teeth and you will find there's more to do there than simply golf! By the way it's not easy to find a hand worth of teeth, but you never know. Those people stooped over ignoring the waves and the sky are looking for shark teeth, trust me it becomes more obsessive than looking for shells!
March 1st. Do You Know Where Your Spring Is? And When Does Spring Begin? Meteorological Spring - Hurricane Season .. June 1st Still?
A little while ago in Raleigh.
Looked worse that it was...
...small line passing through.
Then the cold front slides through..
When there's nothing to talk about in the weather....weather people talk about records and statistics.
You know when on air weather people tell you the weather history for the day and let you know it could be as cold as 12 degrees or as warm as 82 you know you live in North Carolina. Yes, I'm that person who loves to hear the record history date for cold and hot, because data is interesting. This has been a very wet year so far in the Raleigh area and Mother Nature politically incorrectly flirted with giving us the record rainfall but rather left us standing at the altar in the top five wettest years that this area has had since records started being kept officially. Spoiler alert, for more of the time on Planet Earth we were not keeping records so records only count from when you started tracking them. Today is March 1st, what is known as meteorological Spring for those impatient people who refuse to wait for the Spring Solstice.
It poured this morning, a long, heavy soaking rain yet it came about 7 hours after the deadline for February to break a record for the 2nd most rainiest February. This is the problem with records, they don't tell the real story. As meteorologists we love to study and note records, compare and contrast this month in 2021 with 2020. But the most rainfall or highest snow totals are only counted by calendar months so had .02 inches of rain fell just before midnight at the airport it would have set a record, but because it poured 7 hours later it no longer counts for February but starts March off early with a bang. The records are officially counted at RDU, the airport you may have flown through once or twice, and if it rained down the block and around the corner it's not part of the record but your yard did get wet. It poured heavy for about ten minutes yesterday where I live but alas RDU was dry.
Records can be used to substantiate predictions, forecasts and amuse the otherwise bored weather person. I did a study a while back with help from someone who keeps the records in Asheville and in years where it rained often for months going into the hurricane season this area was impacted by a hurricane. Is that a coincidence or just seeing what you want to see? Often this pattern sets us up for a hurricane to cruise past OBX (the Outher Banks) and catch a front going out to sea. But it all depends on the particular time of season. What may sweep a system out to sea earlier in the hurricane season may catch a system when another factor sets in and a hurricane moves North up towards the front fast which is usually how inland North Carolina gets an inland impact beyond flooding Down East in the river basins. You know those years where Hazel and Fran did not stop at the border nor did they curve out to sea sparing us all landfall. Every year is different, long time readers of this blog will remember I always say every hurricane season is different like Cabbage Patch Dolls were different; yes they definitely all came from the same gene pool but they were each unique in some way.
I'm sure you've heard that saying "when it rains it pours" and it's true often because it's a pattern. Droughts can be busted by a hurricane, however often they high pressure ridge that sets up protects the coast from a hurricane. Again certain times of year, up here in these parts, an approaching early cold front will help re-curve a storm away... but there are always periods between early fronts. In South Florida an early front can grab a hurricane approaching from the ESE and pull it away, later in October an approaching front can catch a Caribbean hurricane and drag it across Florida from the SW and often storms that make landfall in the Florida Panhandle, shower the Carolinas with heavy rain and strong winds as they make their way across land out to the Atlantic again.
When I first came to NC they were having a very bad drought, so bad that you actually had to beg a waiter to bring you a glass of water before your meal but only after he reminded you "we are having a very horrible drought" to serve you some guilt with your glass of cold water. A few years later the pattern changed and water flowed freely again at restaurants and our lawns were green and verdant and if anything growing a tad too fast and Florence made landfall and stayed too long in North Carolina after what had already been a very wet year. On air mets spoke on it, newspapers wrote about it and the rain kept coming. Too many factors for any one to overwhelm the others as everything having to do with hurricanes is complex but it does make me wonder what sort of hurricane season 2021 will be and if it will be kind to the Carolinas or hit us when we are already water logged and watching our water levels rise in the rivers that feed the flood plains that make us a very fertile place to grow agriculture but as always too much of a good thing is never good.
Speaking of dates to start off the season, when does Hurricane Season begin? I do believe this year it's already in the books for June 1st, but there is a lot of chatter in official circles on starting the season early around May 15th in the future. Why not just go for May 1st? It's always been common to have early storms sneak in early in May before the official start but we have tulips that push up through the ground before the Spring Solstice and we have tropical storms happen often in May before the Hurricane Season officially begins. I like winter here and I don't look forward to a hot, heavy summer so the longer it stays cool the happier I am and as always some model somewhere, usually the GFS, throws a model with snowflakes flirting with Raleigh in March and I roll my eyes and think "I'll believe that when I see it!"
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
