A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Yellow 10% circle in MDR Goes BOO! For Halloween.. Severe Weather in the South ..Carolinas in Crosshairs... Rebekah Doing Her Thing in the Atlantic.
Talked on this in the video down below
Made earlier before it was introduced
Our Yellow Halloween Circle
Lemon sour donut with sprinkles?
Did it think odds of getting a name..
..this year we’re on its side?
So it decided to try?
Or is it just here for the party?
Happy Halloween!
Quick blog this morning.
Subtropical Storm Rebekah is still alive.
Long lived storm here :)
Well they did forecast that.
In our part of the world trouble is brewing.
Trouble has been brewing.
Busy early Winter like Fall out West.
Warm weather in the SE this morning.
Front moving in.
Tropical moist air from the GOM
And then another front replaces the last one.
There's a pattern here setting up.
No voice video here.
I'll do one later maybe.
It's just something to watch.
It's been a fun Water Vapor Loop to watch.... ULL spins around S of FL in Carib.. moving a bit.... steady flow up into Applachians, approaching front... #Carolinas#NC waiting on #severeweatherpic.twitter.com/xgaHEY76Ka
And the battle ground setting up for problems today.
Happy Halloween! I’m sure you’ve heard of the storm threat later this evening. Keep an eye on radar and if you trick or treat, maybe wrap it up before 8. Major cold front swings through and it should be the coldest air of the season. First 30s of the year for most next few days
Subtropical Storm Rebekah in N Atlantic - Fires in California - Power Company Turns Power Off - Rain in the SE. Hot Water in the Caribbean As We Move Into November
Subtropical storm #Rebekah has formed over the north Atlantic ocean. It will become a non-tropical system in 24-36 hours as it heads toward the Azores. #scwx#ncwxpic.twitter.com/HFGXRemnBU
A press release with info was sent out.... the NHC site had this info below. And I expected the NHC went ahead and upgraded 99L to Rebekah because well .... that's what they do in 2019. I'm sure I'll give my thoughts on this later at some point but for now I'm sharing the data and the information and that's the way it goes today. Next name up Sebastien...
NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Rebekah, located over the northern Atlantic at 5pm
While waiting for the advisory to come out I just wanted to point out President Reagan's Library in Simi Valley is in danger from the fire there being whipped by hurricane force "Devil Winds" known also as Santa Ana Winds. I know that area well as it's just North of where my Ex-husband's family home was and we'd drive up there on Sunday's for a nice ride out in the country. For Baby Boomers that grew up watching old Westerns it's where many a Western Shoot Out was filmed. Beautiful area that became filled with a suburban paradise that oozed past the San Fernando Valley when they ran out of room there. A beautiful part of the world... but not today.
Turn the sound up if you want to hear my thoughts while watching the broadcast, very crazy...
I did a video earlier talking while watching the coverage online live of the fire. As someone who has asthma (mild) whose kids had asthma that often wasn't mild and that used a Nebulizer to keep them out of the hospital and manage their asthma ...especially when there was a fire out in the Everglades and the smell of smoke spread East over Miami making kids with asthma extremely sick. The thought that I would have 3 options... 1) grab my kid and leave town 2) go to the hospital and sit in the waiting room to be safe or 3) take my chances without any power because the Power company cut the power is intolerable to think on yet to have to deal with as many are today. Many use machines to breathe or help them for various medical conditions and this cutting the grid off doesn't seem right. Fire Season in California happens every year, some years worse than others... there should be a better plan. It's like not preparing for Hurricane Season in South Florida and to be fair someone in California gets a fire every year yet Florida can go for years
without a real landfall ...yet we work them into our overall way of life.
Something seriously wrong with this situation....
Simi Valley used to be and still is in some part Horse Country and I do so love horses.
Gulf Moisture Swept Up By the Approaching Front... Halloween Around the Corner. Then Comes November... Do You Like Candy Corn?
Only official game in town.
It's actually Invest 99L but...
...not being advertised.
Just being watched.
Ships at sea and all that.
It's pretty. Very there.
NHC doesn't seem to care.
So just pointing it out for posterity sake
The moisture in the GOM is shown below.
I didn't talk much on it.
It was obviously not going to get a name.
It's a player in the game.
Oomphs up the moisture in the next front.
It's a component of weather ahead for the South.
This is the pattern.
This is the purpose of Gulf moisture currently.
And it's good because many places need rain.
North Carolina needs it badly.
Just tropical moisture being swept up fast in the flow towards the cold front moving across the US on it's way towards bringing me a bit of cooler weather (in theory) as those in the North are getting the threat of snow, ice and those in the South are getting rain. We are having Fall mornings and summer like days as the thermometer climbs at Noon. I'd complain but friends in Florida are complaining about temperatures still in the low 90s so I'll shut up on complaining about the low 80s.
We all see weather personally.
We look from our own perspective.
Or maybe we check where our parents live..
....or our children.
Or where we want to travel to next.
Raleigh expecting a low of 38 on Friday.
Says 73 today but trust me will be higher.
Every day we surpass the projected high.
Nights are beautiful.
In California winds are gusting hurricane strength.
...where it was as I'd know the place in my dreams.
Sepulveda Pass on the 405 Freeway.
Winds can bring drought, rain or famine.
The many sides of weather and the atmosphere.
So that's it for today.
I have things to do.
And places to go.
And nothing calling to me tropically.
KYAAR is doing things on the other side of the world.
Beautiful to watch and many are....
and the beat goes on.
Amazingly, this year's record breaking North Indian Ocean hurricane season isn't over after #Kyarr. A monsoon depression currently near Sri Lanka will likely trigger another cyclone right on #Kyarr's heels and become #Maha, potentially threatening the Arabian Peninsula next week. pic.twitter.com/I777n7oXTZ
Invest 99L Can it become Rebekah ? Fires in California ... Santa Ana Winds.
This big, beautiful North Atlantic Swirl.
Is Invest 99L
NHC only has it at 20%
But it seems to be fast tracked.
For closer inspection.
A possible designation.
Yes...it's up to West a bit from Pablo.
Sometimes NHC has this disconnect.
It often means they fast track things.
That they feel need further inspection.
Pablo is up there also.
I'll talk on Pablo another day.
There isn't much to say.
So little that Mike decided not to do..
...his Facebook Live today.
I know some who refuse to talk on Pablo.
I'm here to provide information.
Sometimes I go long on explanation.
Or I editorialize a bit if upset.
But today I'm just reporting the facts.
Short term 10%
Long term 20%
Spoiler Alert:
This may change fast so if you care...
...it's there.
On the far side of the Atlantic.
Closer to home on our side of the world.
We watch the Caribbean this time of year.
And we watch off the SE coast.
Fronts race down and then collapse.
Like a runner that finished the race...
...and is out of breath.
You know they need to catch their breath.
And then they stand up again.
Always watch dead fronts.
Be they in the Caribbean where Pirates dance...
...or off the Carolinas and Florida.
Because you just never know in late October.
Or early November.
Turning the world around a bit more.
No videos today...
...well maybe later.
Today the fires in California light up our news feeds.
Again I lived there a long time.
I saw fires up close yet still far away.
Fires can make illusions.
A fire high up on the hill...
...looks like it's right in front of you.
So how does this set up work?
What is a Santa Ana.
Going to use Cranky's graphics.
He's my favorite map maker.
@crankywxguy on Twitter
Cranky does weather ...
...but as I have said.
Every meteorologist is a bit of a geologist.
Or a geographist (that's not a word is it?
it should be a word)
We love maps.
It is what it is.
Add caption
These great maps explain how Santa Ana winds form and they are well forecast to form so usually there is an expectation they could happen and fires can and will pop up suddenly in areas where the wind races down the plains. (No I don't mean Oklahoma) and on top of this let's do a bit of botany. The hillsides in California are often covered in chaparral and as that plant has a high oil content naturally it tends to explode the moment a fire hits it and the embers fly far in the Santa Ana wind. It's a naturally occurring plant that actually has great medicinal properties but at the wrong time in the wrong place it can fuel a fire that is also being fueled by Santa Ana winds that are strong.... you know like if they were swirling in a circle in the Atlantic the NHC would name it but the names are location names according to a hill or a canyon where the fire is burning. Often homes are near those places and they also go up in flames the same way the plants burn and explode and go whoosh in the wind. And to be honest, this happened in the names of the Chumash Indians who lived in the Santa Monica mountains before there was a Hollywoodland sign or a Hollywood or million dollar mansions going up in flames.
Very amazing video. Once I start watching it’s hard to stop. Wildfires here look as if California sprung a leak and it looks as if water is shooting out. Wild illusion. Sad reality ...amazing visual https://t.co/E9yyeXqbwt
Tropics and a Non Weather Related October Surprise.
Quiet weather day.
Pablo still up there with a name.
Moisture in the BOC remains.
Left behind... tail of a front.
A weak front on the Southern ends.
A wave westbound.
A beautiful Cinnamon Roll in the N Atlantic.
No...the cinnamon roll isn't getting a name.
But the biggest hit of the NC State Fair..
is a chicken sandwich from a cinnamon bun.
Cheese, bacon... obviously no I didn't try it.
Regardless...Cinnamon Buns are popular this year.
This is why we go to the State Fair.
To remove ourselves for a few hours...
...from the real world.
Eat carbs, fried food and sweet drinks.
To laugh and walk and wander....
... and get away from the crap in the world.
Whether you are flying high on a swirly ride...
...or looking up from below at a Ferris Wheel.
It's a great escape and NC State Fair rocks.
I went on this morning to do the weather...
...then I remembered the 9 AM Press Conference.
So here I am hours later.
Note nothing is rolling in the tropics just now.
But we will see Rebekah form somewhere.
Sunday morning. Big news day. October Surprise, but not in the tropics. This blog is about weather, but as someone with a degree in International Relations (special emphasis "Russia" and the Kurds.... ) it's an interesting impressive day. You live by bombs, I supposed you die by bombs but way too many who lived by peace are caught up by horrible villains that I will not use other worse words .... who made many victims who only wanted peace. An American Human Rights Activist on a humanitarian mission was killed brutally and I'd say put politics aside and give honor to those who try to do good in the world and thanks to special troops who went in and rid the world of a monster whose vile message was sickly romanticized by many misguided people who got sucked into his schemes. That's it. I was going to write earlier but waited to watch the Press Conference and it kind of amazed me that even I forgot about Kayla (tho the graphic pilot burned alive was a visual we all remember) but amazing how in the flow of life and the stories on the news that try and hold the news captive with various agendas we forget about people like Kayla Mueller who only wanted to do good and help make the world a better place.
...she looked just like one of my kid's best friends.
Some girl who would be making smiling selfies.
Sad story, in her memory give charity.
And know the world is bigger....
...than partisan politics.
It's a big world, way bigger than weather but the atmosphere knows no borders as storms roll from Africa westbound with the prevailing winds towards North America.... they wipe out a population on an island in the Bahamas and the true death toll cannot be figured out yet... and then after terrifying most of the East Coast it swirls off out to sea taking aim at Halifax and England and then Mother Nature does it again with more storms and even weak, small Pablo takes on the Azores once again. Systems roll off of Japan and the Pacific across the ocean, slamming into the NW or Alaska and trek East bound, it's an amazing world from an atmospheric point of view and then .... eventually.... really........the Polar Vortex descends down going wherever it wants to. Tropics rule through November and then what goes up... eventually pushes what's up there down and we move on to Winter Weather Season. Using Cranky's image on one of our tropical players to illustrate how that works below.
What goes up ....
...forces things that must come down.
We didn't get a lot of moisture.
From this front passing through.
Oh and it's currently 75 degrees.
Feels more tropical than anything else.
My only issue with weather knowing no borders is that the weather often stops at North Carolina; not always but more often than not. Hurricanes clip the Outer Banks and move away.... Cold Fronts descend and fall apart around the Carolinas and even East bound fronts go weak when they get to our borders. This I suppose is why so many people move here. We have the "Seasons" but we don't get punishing and hurricanes usually play down by the coast and we don't usually have earthquakes though some tornadoes happen.
So yeah big news day. Weather wise not so much going on but we continue to watch while going about our day. I went out last night to local place that plays live music on Saturday Nights. You know those local bands where musicians live out their musical dreams on the local music scene and people sip good beer or wine and sometimes dance along. It was good. I needed it. My husband was extremely agreeable so for a few hours I sipped Tequilla with Sprite (yeah really just a drop) and played with the cherries the waitress from Memphis threw in as I just wanted to sip something and get lost in the music but no fall off the diet... you know women always counting calories or carbs or something.
And as for #alBaghdadi .... let me say this. Why is it so big? This is from a woman who earned a degree with honors in this field of International Relations. Bin Laden was more of a pirate not even really a rogue nation he took the game wherever he went, it was all about him in ways and while I knew he was there many did not really know who he was before 911 unless of course you are a news nut like me. He was dangerous, inspiring and inspired death wherever his fighters went to do his bidding... with an end game mission. But alBaghdadi as the Hashtag shows.... wanted to create a Kingdom... a Caliphate is basically a Kingdom not a nation and it in this case had a very dangerous message wishing those who do not agree with a death... or to come under their power like some old novel or a movie made with lots of costumes and battles on a movie set but in this case they want to change the world. It was a step bigger, wider and he caused more mischief in that region becoming the enemy of nations who rarely agree on anything other than wanting him gone.
So not making this political as in 2020 election but about 2019 and an interesting October Surprise and no it's not the end of ISIS but it's a huge dent in their propaganda and the reason International Relations students study so much geography and various Earth Sciences is that the resources a nation has from a balmy climate to oil to a lack of natural resources fuels their foreign relations policies and defines them usually... and if you don't believe me ...ask the ghost of Napolean if you can find him. If not... try Chicken Marengo (Google it) great chicken dish we owe to his favorite chef who found a way to feed him when there wasn't much left after his troops foraged and destroyed a good part of Europe the way Sherman did in the South but there was a chicken left for Chicken Marengo!
Have a great day.... stay safe ...find a way to smile... remember good souls who died trying to do good and remember them in some way and enjoy your life today whether you are at a Fair or on the Golf Course on in Church or doing your weekly shopping.
Life goes on.... the tropics go on but not today.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... really Hollywood needs to make good old shows like this more often. My kids loved it. I always thought they said Corey not Corky but well... my mind.... but the message is true. Life goes on... Do what you love and love who you love and show love.
Explanation of the discussion on yesterday's blog.
My fascination with the North Atlantic Gale.
Now Invest 98L raised to 50% chances.
Invest 97L now at 100% chances.
Introducing Invest 98L
GOM at 100%
TD 17...
So which gets the name of Olga?
Such weather drama today.
Yesterday's blog.
Why would I lead with a N ATL Gale?
Because I knew it was coming.
(Cheerwine beat the PSL ones... just saying)
A look back at yesterday's blog.
Where do your eyes go.
Mine went to the N ATL Gale.
Tho the GOM gets high marks.
Weather wise high marks.
Location wise much closer to us.
But oh wow look at that Gale.
Takes up 1/3 of the Atlantic.
Today is the day weather people wait for at the end of the hurricane season when basically anything and everything goes and everything and anything is game to be named in the tropics. North Atlantic Gales out near the Azores get sudden upgraded attention and Gulf of Mexico Hybrid Systems hooking up with a cold front get named in some way as they head to important ports of call such as Nola and suddenly ride up the Mississippi River Valley vs taking yesterday's "carved in stone track" that leaned NE towards Georgia, North Florida and the Carolinas. Am I the only one who will admit or talk on how they totally pulled the model track for 97L to the West (left) and changed the orientation as it's moving fast, forming fast, falling into the pattern that the Cold Front is forcing as it merges into some wild weather maker. And.... as that pushes more to the North it whispers problems with the next system that may be colder, stronger and diving down deeper. As Dave Schwartz, of blessed memory, used to say... when something goes UP... something else comes down. The Atmosphere is like a wild ride at the fair, it's never stagnant it keeps on spinning.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
