A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Gulf Moisture Swept Up By the Approaching Front... Halloween Around the Corner. Then Comes November... Do You Like Candy Corn?
Only official game in town.
It's actually Invest 99L but...
...not being advertised.
Just being watched.
Ships at sea and all that.
It's pretty. Very there.
NHC doesn't seem to care.
So just pointing it out for posterity sake
The moisture in the GOM is shown below.
I didn't talk much on it.
It was obviously not going to get a name.
It's a player in the game.
Oomphs up the moisture in the next front.
It's a component of weather ahead for the South.
This is the pattern.
This is the purpose of Gulf moisture currently.
And it's good because many places need rain.
North Carolina needs it badly.
Just tropical moisture being swept up fast in the flow towards the cold front moving across the US on it's way towards bringing me a bit of cooler weather (in theory) as those in the North are getting the threat of snow, ice and those in the South are getting rain. We are having Fall mornings and summer like days as the thermometer climbs at Noon. I'd complain but friends in Florida are complaining about temperatures still in the low 90s so I'll shut up on complaining about the low 80s.
We all see weather personally.
We look from our own perspective.
Or maybe we check where our parents live..
....or our children.
Or where we want to travel to next.
Raleigh expecting a low of 38 on Friday.
Says 73 today but trust me will be higher.
Every day we surpass the projected high.
Nights are beautiful.
In California winds are gusting hurricane strength.
...where it was as I'd know the place in my dreams.
Sepulveda Pass on the 405 Freeway.
Winds can bring drought, rain or famine.
The many sides of weather and the atmosphere.
So that's it for today.
I have things to do.
And places to go.
And nothing calling to me tropically.
KYAAR is doing things on the other side of the world.
Beautiful to watch and many are....
and the beat goes on.
Amazingly, this year's record breaking North Indian Ocean hurricane season isn't over after #Kyarr. A monsoon depression currently near Sri Lanka will likely trigger another cyclone right on #Kyarr's heels and become #Maha, potentially threatening the Arabian Peninsula next week. pic.twitter.com/I777n7oXTZ
Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.
We can see Karen slowly coming apart.
Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.
#tropical update #blog out in a bit. Nothing new to add but to watch the tail end of fronts coming down as we move into #October. Sorry bit breathy on some meds. Doing so much better. Thanks for ur patience & updates while I’ve been there flint https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxapic.twitter.com/OpLB0SjBZF
The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.
Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml
Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989.
Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...
And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.
Invest 97L Hovering Over the NC VA Coast.... Could It Get a Name Out Over Water? How Bout the GOM? And, Oh My Gosh... a REAL WAVE Coming Off of Africa.
Radar
This is Invest 97L that has a 30% chance at 8 AM Sunday.
Discussing 97L first as it has a designation.
It has a potential future.
The loop below shows it over the NC Coast.
And I do mean over the coast.
As in more inland than off.
Though it's moisture is everywhere.
And the end of the frontal complex is the area in the NE GOM.
More on that later.
There's a ground stop at Chicago O'Hare airport as another huge complex storms all colorful on satellite imagery races through. I'm wondering what they are feeding those storm complexes out over the Dakotas, down into Minnesota then aiming at either Chicago or Arkansas. It's been one after another like some pinball machine stuck on sending another ball out of the chute and doing the same musical dance down and out.
Yes stage upper left is our MidWest Monster Cell that's on some sort of energy drink that perhaps the Atlantic needs to think on switching over to as one tropical wave after another literally bites the dust; it could use one of those Bing or Bang drinks that's all the rage this summer. I saw one Cotton Candy flavored in the market at the local Harris Teeter but no I couldn't. I'm more a coffee girl as everyone knows and yes they have a grocery store here named Harris Teeter. Now you understand why Publix has moved into the general North Carolina area.
Speaking of things that moved into the general North Carolina area we would be discussing Invest 97L that was announced with low odds but in the right location close to the coast to deserve it's own Invest tag and set of model runs. It's out there and there is a strong possibility it could intensify once it moves off of land and is totally out over the Atlantic. Models below.
Note last intensity runs showed it could get a name.
We currently have two small cells that popped up over their large stalled out frontal boundary anchoring both edges of the system that is starved for a real center or well possibly it needs some Pina Colada Energy Drink. But we are watching and wondering on possibilities in the Gulf of Mexico down the road and if 97L running out of road can develop into something that gets a name or Tropical Depression designation. Earthnull shows their sneaky presence hiding in some cove somewhere that pirates Blackbeard and Lafitte used to evade the authorities and rest up before venturing out again on the high seas.
I don't know what to say beyond this....
...we are watching close in until the real players show up.
You know Pre-Season NFL Football.
Let's see what some of those draft picks got for us?
As I said the other day.
With or without a name.
It's lots of tropical rain.
If it's flooding your yard or street....
....it's a real pain.
Out by Africa.
Far away is a new wave coming off the coast.
A nice looking wave.
I keep waiting for some to have a real center.
You know low pressure...
Nice. That's ...okay interesting.
No models don't do much with it yet.
Some long range models show the Atlantic waking up.
Let's wait a day or two before jumping on it.
And let's see what it looks like after jumping in the pond.
Updated Tropics Friday Evening.. 8 PM Yellow Circle Over Florida. Watching Models and Loops... Waves That are Silent Runners and Close In Areas for Possible Development.
Late breaking as expected NHC put up a yellow X over N FL
Putting this up fast before going off for the night.
I'm off for the Jewish Sabbath til tomorrow evening.
Have a blessed, beautiful weekend!
Official bottom line from the NHC.
Please keep reading as I wrote this earlier.
In anticipation of the 8PM update.
Note written earlier around 6 PM my thoughts...
NHC still has their nothing happening sign up.
Other signs point to possible development.
But as the song goes... time will tell.
Will the NHC respond soon with a small yellow circle?
Only the NHC knows..
(adding in here... yes they did...)
So I'm going to put this out here as sometimes things change rapidly close in, however nothing is expected to form or develop, it's a lot of moisture congregating around North Florida in the Gulf of Mexico. Some models play at concentrating the moisture into stronger areas of convection but they refrain from developing a named storm. Everyone is talking, complaining and bitching about the rain in parts of Florida and for good reason; it's been a whole lot of rain.
Most of social media has showed this one...
I feel their pain but it's no name rain for now.
Kind of looks like there's some spin.
Or it wants to spin.
But it's parked there.
Note there is another area off the Carolinas.
Down in the Caribbean there's more rain.
What's a bigger story than the rain?
The shear.....
If you thought SAL was bad....
...you haven't seen the shear maps.
Red means No.
Green means Go.
There's a sliver of where there isn't much shear.
And where there is less shear in the Atlantic....
...there's SAL.
Tho the set up with SAL may be slowly waning.
Things will be changing the next week or so a bit.
But unless something spins up fast close in...
...where there's warm water and green on the shear map.
It's rain.
Lots and lots of rain.
Mike has dubbed it a blob.
He's right on some levels.
The blob may shift around a bit.
But it's a blob of rain.
As for me I keep wondering if the NHC...
...is gonna put up a yellow circle over Arkansas.
Post traumatic Stress from the Yellow Circle over Tennessee
I guess ;)
Every day that blob forms...
...the new purple blob on Planet Earth.
Hang in there.... keep reading.
If models show some support.
The NHC could put up a yellow area.
But either way it's still rain.
Keep watching.
Trust me I will be.
Til we get something official from the NHC...
... just keep watching.
It's like when you used to wait for the phone to ring.
Remember that?
Some of you do...
...some don't.
Now days we get nervous when the phone rings.
Change is the one constant in our world.
If the phone doesn't ring it's me....
(keep reading if you didn't read Friday morning)
Some great links to loops you might want to save.
Or just save my blog ;)
I'd like to be out in the eye of the storm.
Bet some one here would like to be...
...in the eye of the storm.
Or at least at the beach in a storm.
Sweet Tropical Dreams
Can show it to you in Color too!
Not the strongest Atlantic waves today.
But they keep hanging in there...
...or trying to anyway.
Indian Ocean lit up.
But our wave train should depart the station soon.
Sometimes trains are late...
...if you use Amtrak you'll know what I mean.
So that's the wide view of the tropics above.
A wave that left Africa in the MDR.
MDR = Main Development Region for newbies.
Cluster of Convection in the NE GOM
Later with the heat of the day it will fire up more.
A weak Caribbean wave moving Westbound.
Why do we watch weak Caribbean waves you ask?
@DaDaBuh has a rule.
Okay he has LOTS of rules....
But he explains this well.
They move along like silent runners.
Barely there and then hit the 50 yard line.
Often waves can flare up in the Caribbean ....
...down near the Yucatan.
Sometimes the North end of a wave flares up....
...near PR and suddenly close to Florida.
Until the Atlantic Waves begin doing their thing.
We watch close in areas for development.
When the Atlantic Waves begin to kick in.
You'll know as everyone goes crazy.
Those dotted lines in the Atlantic....
...show the Saharan Dust.
There is a wave there way South of the SAL.
But the SAL sucks moisture out like a vacuum cleaner.
Kind of like this.
And everyone watching the tropics falls asleep.....
Not easy for people who wake up and check the NHC.
When things are slow in the tropics, as they usually are this time of year, it's good to read the NHC discussion on the Atlantic Basin. They have something to say about everything and often the amount of attention they give an area of the exact words they use show what they are watching for down the road development or by contrast areas they believe are shut down due to unfavorable conditions.
That's our area close in connected to constant convection and watching for any possibility of low pressure that could spin up. This front has become a semi permanent feature kicking up convection from the Carolinas to Florida and out into the Gulf of Mexico. The models have spit out small lows off the Carolinas and some believe models are indicating that low pressure could become an issue in the Central Gulf of Mexico. I'm a big believer if anything forms in the Gulf of Mexico that remains weak it will hook right to the NE or NNE with the flow. But eventually things can change so you can't judge next week by this week, but it's been a very persistent problem. And, until cooler air dives down and shoves these fronts out to sea each front replaces the previous front and where we had a large High Pressure System parked over the SE we now have a frontal boundary that doesn't want to leave. Often.... it's something big.... from up above or down below that kicks that pattern out. Could that kicker be a tropical storm or hurricane down the road? Probably faster than an Arctic front. Mother Nature generally finds a way to get it done.
Currently here's the picture.
Frontal Boundary.
Little orange dot is the current Caribbean Wave.
Moving along West bound.
Under a layer of shear that's there.
Will something develop?
Maybe.
But the location of it developing tells the story.
There is the chance it can develop near Louisiana..
(for example)
And crawl along the coastal boundary....
Visiting all the beach cities along the way.
Weak development means everyone gets weather.
Loops to watch and ponder on as we wait for the tropics to heat up and conditions to become favorable to where something could form close in or far away.
The wider view.
Big wave rolls off of Africa.
Goes poof in the water.
Does it flare up again?
That time of year that feels as if nothing will form ever.
And then it does.
Now look close in at Florida.
Always raining somewhere.
The sun goes up....
...the sun goes down.
August Climo.
Where do storms most likely form?
As for some Hurricane History?
1999 after a fast start was slow.
Then as usual it began to get busy.
Note how the switch was flipped.
A strong high and SAL owned the Atlantic.
And then it did not.
A look back at the beginning of Floyd.
I'll be back later this weekend...
...or if something pops up.
But for now...
Enjoy the summer.
What's left of the summer.
Go to the movies.
Go to the beach (but watch the weather)
Take the boat out if the weather is somewhere else.
Go shopping.
Lord knows there's a Mall somewhere that needs ya.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
