A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
West Coast Storms .... Ensemble Models Show Snow... Maybe. From the Land of the Pines..... A Look at Why NC Is Best Place to be in Winter... Beware Long Range Forecasts for Hurricane Season That'll Pop Up Soon the way the Tulips Do!
At least we can paint or draw Snow ....
Hmnnn... thinking.
Storms in the Pacific.
Missing in action in Carolina today.
Quiet day, birds are even chirping.
Life in North Carolina depends on which part of the state that you live in or are visiting on your Winter Vacation. It'll snow in Boone and some relative in Miami asks "did you get a lot of snow" and you say again for the 1000 time "no that's up in the mountains" and the same relative calls when a hurricane hits Wilmington and asks "are you okay up there, I heard you got a hurricane?" and you say "no that's down by the beach" for what seems like the 1000 time. Raleigh is the Piedmont, it's the capital and it was moved here from New Bern after the Governor's Palace was flooded twice at the conjunction of two beautiful rivers that make New Bern a beautiful, scenic, historic place to visit. Supposedly there was a Tavern with good beer as well and to be fair beer and breweries is a huge part of North Carolina life.
Hurricanes usually happen on the coastal plains, tho not always, and snow storms usually impact the mountains, but not always.
And, it's those "not always" events that make those of us that live in the fairly safe Piedmont cities pray we see snow every winter. We do get beastly hot summers and occaisional tornadoes. Usually, at least once a year, Mother Nature dusts of slams us with snow to remind us she can get us anytime she wants even though we are not in the mountains. Happens. So far this year it has not happened, despite early Winter Predictions that this Winter would be like the 2009/2010 Winter when we had so much snow I thought that was something that happened every year in Raleigh, but alas I was wrong. It was fun tho...
Even the GFS is stingy this year.
Last day of January.
Snow in the mountains.
Rain in the Piedmont.
Storms by the coast.
Thursday February 8th.
Snow up in Canada
A cyclone like looking low off the coast.
Monday on the 5th there's a sliver of a chance..
..snow may happen near Charlotte.
There's a thought........my 2nd NC city.
The GFS has been fixed it seems.
It's not promising us everything always every day.
There was a recent model that showed a Winter Storm.
In the Raleigh Durham area,
Okay it was an Ensemble Mode
Yes, that ensemble model showed a wild storm that did seem to come in too fast like an out of control 18 wheeler careening everywhere all over an icy highway. Ensemble models are where we go when even the GFS shows nothing, nada ...nowhere outside the mountains.
I get it.
And I also have beautiful blue skies and cold air and sunshine and lots of breweries to go enjoy good local beer and drown my winter dreams in sudsy sorrow while debating a trip somewhere that it might snow.
Yes, as I always say Weather is Locational. Someone with a drought going on snow wise really doesn't want to look at pictures of snow falling in Montana, it's almost painful.
As we move towards February and many start discussing the 2024 Hurricane Season online, remember that long range early forecasts for this winter promised Winter Storms likely in the Piedmont and then everyone who was posting said those took them down or pretended they never posted them.
Long range models are fun to watch ....especially when you're bored without any real weather...and yet they are long range and often something changes.
But hope springs eternal as we enter February later this week. Isn't it amazing we are still in January and everyone wants to write off the rest of the Winter. Not me. I take it one day at a time weather wise. I love the winter here with or without snow. It's cold, I'm nice and comfortable in my warm PJs under the covers typing on my laptop watching the lil fake fireplace in the bedroom that is basically a fancy floor heater but hey it's all about illusions. Nespresso was good this morning and I'm planning my day. Going to take a walk and look at the Nandina that's in bloom, plants with lil red berries that are in abundance so the lil critters can get some juicy fruit even in cold January.
Here's a link to the site with the pictures above and it's a great look at the type of plants that grow here all year round, even in the winter. I'm an alumni parent, my daughter graduated from NC State! Most excellent Weather Program there as well!
I moved here because I got remarried and my husband's business is here. I was also ready to leave Florida if need be as it's not the Florida I grew up in and while I still love it Florida doesn't really love me. I get daily headaches there from the mold that's part of the soil from the constant rain and humidity. I am actually "allergic" to Miami Dade County Soil shown by a huge red bump on allergy tests over the years.
Years back my best friend Sharon and I made up a list of places we "could" move to that had certain important priorities in our lives:
Gets Hurricanes
Has a Football Team.
Good Airport (we had kids in various states)
Chabad Synagogue.
Gets Snow.
Less Traffic (why Raleigh is better than Charlotte tho Charlotte can be more fun)
Has beaches you can easily get to.
Mountains would be good too.
So when I met my future husband, North Carolina worked and in my case I'm old Southern and love that warm country folksy feeling along with fresh collards to make for dinner in the depths of winter (from Farmers Market Sunday) and well I do know how to use maple and molasses (over biscuits and sometimes even in coffee) and I like dark beer, porters or an occassional Guinness! I'm still praying for the Carolina Panthers to get it together again.
If you are still reading you are a diehard BobbiStorm fan as there really is no weather to discuss by me, no squalls out on the Gulfstream and only memories of El Nino Years in California back when I lived there with my ex-husband who was a Valley Boy ....really, San Fernando Valley but we lived in Long Beach and West LA for a long while. No hurricanes so I studied earthquake faults! Learn to go with the flow...
Enjoy life.
Enjoy weather.
Find something you enjoy.
Go for it!
Do it!
Beauty of Weather is that at least up in these parts of the world it is always changing and as much as I'll hate to see Winter go I'll look forward to the Magnola Trees in bloom with a flower that has the most heavenly scent. Azalea blooms in multiple colors and every street looks like a cover for Southern Living Magazine. And, oh my gosh the Dogwood is legendary in Raleigh.
Hoping Mother Nature surprises me with a dusting of snow.
Dream whatever weather you want...
Besos BobbiStorm
Ps I'm probably the only person you'll meet who prefers summer in Miami over flying South for the Winter and there's always storms to chase there ;) If it's gonna be beastly hot at least Miami has an incredible breeze off Biscayne Bay vs Raleigh that feels like the pits of hell. Sorry, but being honest ...that's why the locals go up to the mountains or down to the beach.
Thanks for reading and playing along with my need to write this morning and share my thoughts on Winter 2024 and give a caution to early forecasts for Hurricane Season written in January or February...
One of my all time favorite songs.
My mother was a singer.
She loved music.
So do I
She introduced me to Nat when I was a lil girl.
Loved him ever since............
If you prefer the lyrics.... listened to a lot of Ella..
Wild Game Yesterday. KC & SF in the Super Bowl. Will Winter Surprise Us in February? Never Give Up an Easy 3 Points... Enjoy the Weather !!
One of the most awesome plays yesterday.
Long time readers know I love football!
Amazing catch!
Best comment last night on that wild play.
Allan Huffman does football as good as he does weather!
Full disclosure I'm not a huge fan of either of the two teams that played in the second playoff game. My father loved Detroit Tigers so for some loyalty to a city he had never been to he rooted for the Detroit Lions. Never made a lot of sense to me, but many things don't make sense and yet we do them over and over so I was ready to root for Daddy who may or may not be up there in football heaven watching along with me. San Francisco was down by so many point it was hard to think they had a chance and yet they managed some crazy come back and ended up winning the game. They just never gave up and more so the energy was electric as each player kept going after tackles picking up additional yardage.
Why am I talking about football?
Football teaches life lessons!
left to March 1st... Meteorological Winter
And yet everyone writes off Winter....
...as fast as they write off the Hurricane Season in August.
Something about human nature that no sooner than we get deep into Winter or flip the calendar to August we start trying to predict Winter is Dead and Hurricane Season is a bust. I hate that. You go to the Dollar Store in January and they already have St. Patrick's Day decorations. I looked hard and everywhere and there were no Mardi Gras decorations the Valentines hot pink and red bled into the Spring Green of St. Paddy's Day. Come on...
Often the Championship game is better than the Super Bowl and sometimes the Super Bowl surprises us and is exciting. My rule of thumb is never miss a good Championship game to see who gets into the Super Bowl and never give up an easy 3 points as too often it comes back to kick you in the butt. I can argue the logic of going for 2 for a Win vs a Tie on the last play of the game, but not going after an easy 3 points more than once in an important game can make or break a game. You know what else can make or break a game? Dropped passes that hit receivers in the face or chest and that did happen last night a few times. Missed signals, poor handoffs and most of all a feeling a lethargy that settles in when a player decides he is going to lose the game. A stand out player like Christian McCaffrey who was always fun to watch when he played for the Carolina Panthers and check out how many players it takes to take him down after he breaks tackles and keeps going.
Energy is everything in football and weather.
Where's the energy?
Where's the lack of energy?
My friend DaBuh recognizes energy.
In season or out of season.
Patterns.
You gotta go wide to see a pattern.
Where does that lil Screaming Eagle go?
He's watching Screamimng Eagles in the Carib.
Energy splits one feeds the Atlantic later this week.
The other slip slides into the GOM.
When I was a little girl in Miami and Winter was only a Season I saw on calendars or the Nightly News and Weather Reports of blizzards and something called an Ice Storm that looked like a page from a Superman Comic Book...it showed a little girl in a red coat trying hard to walk to school with the chill of February hitting her in the face tugging at her winter coat!
I'm gonna enjoy the cold air this week in Raleigh and yes I am hoping we see Winter Weather but enjoying the excitement and joy from that incredible game last night. Not going to obsess on who wins the Super Bowl nor am I going to write off Winter before it's even February. And, to be honest it's good to feel excited about sometihng, to see passion and smile and feel the energy jump from the screen into my head and my heart. That's why people love to watch storm chasers which to me is kind of "okay but wouldn't you rarther be out there in the wind and the rain of a named storm?" but no people love to watch and as soon as they know I do weather sales ladies at BELK Department Store in Raleigh start telling me who their favorite storm chasers are......... and I smile and giggle inwardly while telling them "yes, they are awesome" and it makes my day. It's just one of those things that make you smile when you see a kindred spirit while buying a bra from a woman most people would think would be watching the home decorating channel yet she's watching Reed Timmer and yes she LOVES MIKE!
Never be too sure you know who is going to win on any given Sunday. And, never ever write off a Hurricane Season the first week of August because no storm has even been named yet or Andrew will bite you in the you know where and Irma and Ian and a long list of storms such as Sandy often punctuate the Hurricane Season and sometimes the Detroit Lions make it into the Championship Game! Maybe Next Year...
Sweet Tropical Dreams or Snowy Dreams,
BobbiStorm
Ps Hope there's not too many typos I'm getting over a headache that didn't stop me from enjoying last night's game :) Wow.
This is for my daughter and daughter-in-law ...
....who are Swifties.
And for Mitch who wants Pizza and Snow.
Maybe our wildest dreams do come true?
On any given Sunday...
...just catch the well thrown ball.
Catch the high bouncing ball off a players helmet!
And always take the 3 points, when you have the chance!
Vintage BobbiStorm in Rinse & Repeat Cycle Still Dreaming on Snow.... Wondering on Hurricane Season and Being Amused By My Friends Online During the Boring OFF SEASON.
Mike kind of says it all.
Cranky who is now Content...
...calls this "rinse and repeat"
Tho he did not coin the phrase.....
...he's right. And who knows...
But we are stuck on the East Coast in this pattern.
Yes we are obsessing.
We are all obsessing.
Mother Nature be Stalking the South this Winter.
Teasing us, playing with us as someone once said.
Chick mentioned 1916 in his discussion.
I Googled that hurricane season because I'm me.
Wanted to see the Gulf of Mexico.
Wondering how long this pattern sticks around.
Early odd May storms in the GOM?
With every day that passes I keep wondering on what the Early Season, the Pre-Season when storms form in the Gulf of Mexico off of old stalled frontal boundaries or just moisture plumes that find their low somewhere and curl up into a real low worthy of the A name; Yucatan cruisers up towards the Florida Panhandle. You know "The Season" the real season being the Hurricane Season.
So first off thanks to all my rowdy and not so rowdy weather friends for keeping me smiling, laughing and on my tippy toes during this inordinately boring period known as Winter 2024. And as for the dreamers I'm watching the long range models and hoping and believing that as we turn the calendar to February that brings us Valentine's Day and Mardi Gras .... I keep wondering will it bring me frozen strawberries or snow to the Carolinas. Mitch gets that and I get Mitch but neither of us is alas getting snow ...not even sleet!
In honor of this weekend's play off game.
May your wildest weather dreams come true.
Mine is a real Snow Storm!
Yes I want that!
Yes I'm strange!
Weather people are strange.
Writers are strange.
Don't even get me started on Producer/Directors.
March I'll be traveling...maybe see snow.
Or dreary gray cold days but...
..my sunny friend and partner in crime Malka will be there.
So........we will see what we will see.
Time will tell.
And Annabel Lee.
Who is she?
Why did Edgar Allan Poe write about her?
Just a Friday blog to say nothing has changed and in my part of the South we are still having rain, sometimes cold rain or just meh rain depending on the hour of the day. I was inexplicablycold last night despite the presence of a January Thaw that has melted any chance of January Winter P Types and given us simply rain, endless rain and gray days we usually see in late Fall. I listened to James Taylor's epic ode to Carolina just now and while he waxes poeitc on the Carolina moon and sunshine it did occur to me he didn't mention the snow. Oh...what was I thinking wishing on snow??
The birds are out again, they disapeered when we had that 2 week window of Winter Cold with lows int he 20s and the teens and suddenly the crows are crowing (this is why Stephen King films in NC sometimes) and it looks as if the ghost of Edgar Allan Poe would walk through my yard engrossed in writing some new epic poem about some lost love or long lost love and poets really hate losing muses. Edgar, if I may call him that, left the Bronx for not so sunny Baltimore where he could write endless prose that resembled the endless row houses with the lil stops my Grandma Mary used to hate when they visited relatives there.
I wonder if Edgar smiled ever?
I digress. But do love his poetry.
Some of his poetry.
So I'm gonna make a Lamb dish for dinner as it is winter afterall....hearty, warm along with some soup and salad and kasha and varniskas (bowtie pasta) with lots of caramelized onionss and some very good wine.
Hang in there as hopefully this stuck pattern will finally go away. Groundhog Day coming up and maybe the groundhog will be a prankster?
Regarding the previous blog where I spoke on Icy Steep Roads covered in Snow in February a few years back in Carolina, China had the other problem as these cars all crashed into each other sliding DOWN the steep hill... horrific crash, did they ignore warnings or did they not give warnings? Just stay home in that sort of weather that's my advice!
We do wish for Winter Weather but not that chaotic mess.
Just gentle falling snow, covering the landscape in white.
Sweet dreams...whatever you wish for weather wise.
Deja Vu Winter - Same Set Up Rinse & Repeat. Does February Break the Pattern? Valentines Day Storm? Maybe.......
This singature is getting old. Texas prob thinks so too!
Weather turns left at the mountains.
I think it was 72 degrees today.
January Thaw they used to call it.
NC Mets are talking weather history.
Every Met has shown an image of...
"Remember When"
Meanwhile models on Windy.com show Thunderstorms.
Normally I love severe weather and thunderstorms...
...in Spring and Summer.
January 28th.... no.
We will see.
Many people online have been looking forward to the Hurricane Season, showing early preliminary reports and thoughts on possible patterns and I gotta tell you if this was late March I'd be all over it but no, not in January. I mean Lord we haven't even had the Super Bowl, we still have football going on.
Staycation was nice, my husband's home now and I'm doing doing all the little "to do" things on my To Do List! I'm a Capricorn, when all else fails take stuff apart and reorganize it. It's to us what an all night party is for a Leo. I was married to a Leo, it didn't work out. But it was a lot of fun especially in LA always running on the move while I carefully studied every fault line between San Francisco and San Diego. No hurricanes, not much weather except for THAT EL NINO which caused flooding and oh the Santa Ana Winds.
I've made peace with myself on the lack of snow this winter. I may take a vacation, out of town and not Southbound on I95. A girls gotta do what a girls gotta do!
Right about here I want to say something about the parts of the country that got way too much Ice.
Dear Arkansas.... I'm sorry, that's a lot of Ice. Yes, I like Ice in Raleigh but we haven't had a real ICE Storm since I've been here and we just get a glaze of ice. that melts really fast. Stay safe.
Dear Florida........I'm sorry it's been so cold you had to wear a sweater on rare occasions at night.
Dear the Rest of the Country..........I'll make a deal with you. Send me the Winter Weather and I'll pray you get a sweet early Spring with little flowers busting out all over.
55 days til Spring, though wouldn't be surprised if it comes early but time will tell.
In the old days they called this the January Thaw. Remember it was a chilly 15 degrees round these parts a few nights ago. Locals call this North Carolina Bi Polar Winter.
So hang in there.
February 12th, 2014 was the infamous Snow Storm that made Raleigh famous on the Internet as everyone and their brother created Memes about what happens when it snows in the South. To be fair it's a very high hill, a steep incline and the street froze like ice at the beginning so the street turned into a Winter Luge Event! Kind of like in that movie where the Jamaicans had to learn how to Bob Sled! Bobsled? Bob Sleigh Team?
I'm a Miami girl living in North Carolina what do I really know about sledding? I did it once in Maine with my best friend Sharon :) whoosh down the hill in 1 degree weather in January!
Check back again soon. I'm not writing yet on the 2024 Hurricane Season. The first storm name though is Alberto! The windows are open tonight (and all day) and I'm wearing a light summer dress with leggings to an event tonight somewhere. Go with the flow. When life gives you warm weather in January, enjoy it! It won't last and usually Winter snaps back with a surprise that no one saw coming.
Snowless in Raleigh. Sunny and Cold and Beautiful Tho! Snow in Baltimore, NY .... 60 Days Left of Winter.
No my legs are good but not that long.
Shadoes in NC are wild, you don't get that in Miami.
Four photos taken in less than an hour! First the sky was gray/white...various shades of gray, the light throwing long shadows on the ground at 9 AM. Then driving a few blocks from the house the clouds turned blue, criss cross Winter Clouds.... covering the sky like a painting more than a photograph. By 9:45 after we drove back down the street after coming out of the Food Lion Grocery I realized all the clouds were gone and the sky was blue, deep, beautiful blue. Oh, and it's windy.
I complain a lot about not getting snow, wanting snow and wishing on snow and yet the truth is it hit me today.... I can go to Denver or New York to see snow but the air here is crisp, cool and beautiful. As if God literally sent air conditioning, it's not too cold and it's not too warm it's just perfect.
So I'm going to stop obessing on snow falling or sleet sleeting and just enjoy the beauty of winter in the Carolinas. There are 60 days til Spring, there is no reason to throw away the beauty of cool, fresh Winter air sulking on my lack of snow. I can travel, I just like seeing it in my own backyard; watching falling snow out my bedroom window!
'
That's beautiful to me!
Speaking of traveling I've been quiet because I've been on the road in 3 different cities in 4 days. We were in Charlotte (another beautiful North Carolina city) busy with appointments and my son called from Hollywood Florida explaining that they were having a fast religious wedding ceremony after my daughter-in-law's conversion was finished and well things move fast in my family and in my world. I'm very close with her and him and we had promised to go to South Florida when it was done and it was suddenly a done deal so we drove through a total white out which I'd have loved but no wind just blinding rain all through Georgia and Jacksonville and down until Daytona Beach. When you know the road trip like you know the back of your hand, you can tell the time left before you reach the Miami area.
I didn't miss any snow while gone, haha that's a joke. The weather was cool, gray and tourists were complaining to me they didn't come to Miami for gray cloudly weather. Gee.... the gray cloudy weather was almost 40 degrees warmer than New York City so you'd think they'd be happy to throw off their winter clothes. Speaking of Winter clothes I was thrilled it was "cool" as we left from Charlotte where I only had winter clothes so tho I grabbed a silky summer dress in Belk in Charlotte before leaving I wore it with leggins and boots. It was a cute outfit, it was a sweet wedding with their two little girls Chana and Esther and it was a fast, small, quiet ceremony followed by of course sushi because South Florida and now I'm home in Raleigh, 4 days later.
I'm also banning Weather Apps from my phone that never get the 10 day forecast right let alone the 7 day. It was supposed to snow on Tuesday (nope) and it was supposed to snow tomorrow which is not in the forecast.
Whatever..........
To add pain to the injury.... it's the anniversary of snow in Miami a long time ago. Honestly it wasn't a Holiday Card with snow on a small village, some flakes in the air and on the car and most people you'll speak to will say they missed it but still it's Weather History!
Love the one you're with an old friend used to tell me.
I'm loving Winter... and hopefully sometime in the next 60 days of Winter the snow will fall!
Frozen in Texas and Iowa - Cold in the Carolinas. Are You Still in Winter Mode or........Dreaming of Sring? As For Me... You Know I Want SNOW!
Just about says it all.
The Volcano finally blew.
Blizzard and Polar Vortex appeared.
It's cold in Texas......
Red is NOT hot on the map above!
Magenta Purple OMG FROZEN
So cold, below zero.
Listen it's Winter. It's either way too cold in some places or people are complaining it's not cold enough and there's no snow. Or people plod along waiting for Spring. The Dollar Store, our barometer of time and which holiday is next is filled with Valentines Day candy and decorations and to me that's a hop, skip and a jump away from Spring.
Personally I'm staying in Winter with the hope I see snow locally if not by taking a trip somewhere.
I'm not going to talk on very, very long range discussions on the hurricane season. Football is coming to a cold crescendo of conflict resolution as the teams in the Play Offs get their chance to go the distance to the Super Bowl which these days is way too deep into Winter considering Football is considered a Fall Sport!
I'm packing, on the road to Charlotte for a few days. Not sure if that's my Sister City (Queen City) or my 2nd City these days as I'm there more than even in Miami yet Miami is still my second screen on my iPhone weather App. The models don't agree as always, so I'm just hanging on watching in real time trying to figure out how much warm weather clothes I'll need!
If you're in Texas.............stay warm .... pretty please!!
I have a son in Colorado who lived in Iowa and I'm thinking about now he feels like he's back in Iowa.
As for the Frozen Iowa Primary..........I imagine the people who are healthiest and most enthused about their particular candidate will find a way to go and vote. The candidates who haven't been able to figure out which way they want to vote will probably stay home. Time will tell.
Power Outages. Tornado Warnings ... Hope for Best BUT Please Prepare For the Worst... When This Storm Hits YOUR Area with Tropical Storm Force Winds & Gusts It'll Be Too Late To Act... Keep Phones Fully Charged!
From www.windy.com
Subscription has sooo many options.
So worth it.
As is following Allan Huffman on Patreon.
Especially if you live in the Carolinas.
WIND is the ISSUE today.
Tornadoes too....
....Severe Weather as well.
The problem is it is hard to convey the dangers without a name and these sort of systems do not have a name, unless a tornado hits your town and then people will refer to it as the January 9th Tornado. Just the way it is, the way of the world ... people hear a "name" and they pay attention. The threat is real from Georgia where there are currently tornado warnings and winds near 90 mph in elevated places. And, when I say "elevated" I don't mean Mt Washington.
I would prefer that NWS Raleigh put the word #Tornadoes and #severeweather in their Tweet aka Post vs directing you to read the fine print below. Sadly, people do not always read the fine print.
My favorite weather wall art for the day!
Going wide.
This is a huge weather danger day today.
From GOM to Canada.
Most of the East Coast is in it.
It's on it's way.
Not easy to put these dangers into words as it's a fast moving system and the odds are always in your favor that you'll be just fine. Well, unless the odds are not in your favor today.
Tie down anything that might fly in the wind.... treat this like a fast moving Tropical Storm with a strong chance of thunder and tornadoes. It can rip someone's roof off as well as take the power out!
So pay attention and stay aware and keep your cell phone fully charged in case you need to call someone for help or check on them. If you need to know where your medication or boots are keep them somewhere you can find them if the power goes out. As this is a huge event it'll take more time than usual for power to be restored. That's a concerned.
And weather is fluid, especially severe weather and it evolves in real time so the powers that be will update in real time as well .... while you're out doing carpool or doing construction work or stuck in traffic. Remember that... a forecast is only a forecast, a prediction and there is no way to nail down where some "discreet cell" (random thundertsorm out ahead of the frontal boundary) will drop a tornado on some town that didn't think the weather would begin until later in the day.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
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