Tropics Quiet on Tuesday But We May See Fireworks Begin Around July 4th... July 8th - 10th Interesting. Model Discussion.

There but barely there.

Earthnull shows a small closed area.

We will come back to this area later today.

My favorite old school big view of the basin.

The wave that was 96L is still there.

It lost it's moniker but it's there.

Another follows it.

Area off OBX is there.

But it's moving to the South.

Being pushed to the South.

NHC isn't in love with it.

They may revisit it soon.

So what really is happening?

Models show a storm forming off OBX again.

But GFS and the EURO agree on this.

Going to keep this simple and basic today as there isn't much happening in the tropics. The Invest didn't pan out and the NHC is about to pull the plug on the yellow X with 0% chances. The Saharan Dust that's lighting up our skies with sometimes pretty coral sunsets or somber gray ones is on it's way out. Another plume comes off Africa and yet the last one is the one to beat for intensity of duration and the area it impacted along the way. The dance between waves and dust is as old as time. Really. Over time I've noticed that the path that SAL takes is often similar to the storms of late July and August during the period when fronts stay to the North and are less of a factor. This current pattern aligns with the multitude of forecasts that showed an inhernet weakness this year for waves to get into the Caribbean and travel West slowly lifting into the Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
This is a good link from the NHC that covers waves in depth and you learn much from the innuendo and choices of words used as well as the location of available moisture we are tracking.

I'm going to show you the best way to view models when nothing is really happening as it's about the process and the evolution of moisture and energy over a week's time and that says more than following a small weak vortex or trying to see if a Hurricane forms. They mirror the environment and show you what will be down the road, they also change in real time if something pops up or a cold front dies out or a wave splits and the energy on the North or South side begins to develop in ways the previous model didn't allude to so remember they update constantly.

Starting here with the GFS using models from www.tropicaltidbits.com.

Let's start at the beginning.

The set up that's been....

Note dusty coral and beige area in the Caribbean.

Over Florida where the SAL has been.

Aside from pop up showers it's dry.

Blues... moisture near the waves.

Around July 3rd the blues come back.

The orange beige retreats.

High in place.

Then a Low develops as you see below.

This area seems to be the Holy Grail for the GFS.
It keeps trying to produce something.

Yet this week was off due to SAL

But.... next week it's friendlier.

July 7th below.

Now the EURO

Notice again the progression of moisture in the EURO

Dry Caribbean ... 

...barely any deep blues in the Atlantic.

July 9th blues are back in the Atlantic.

And a Low off the coast of the Carolinas.

I will say models differ on evolution.

But the end game is a storm forms in July.

Understand as always HOMEGROWN happens.

And it usually happens suddenly.

Like Surprise!

in 2020 I expect surprises.

I will say I expect a storm by July 8th.

A day before or after but yeah July 8th.

What form of a storm? 

Can't say yet.

Check back for more thoughts.

Formation begins around July 4th...

... it's a process.

Something changes, something happens.

I wanted to post this below.

I know Joe is controversial.

Some love him.

Others hate him because of his politics.

I only care about his ability to use his words....

..and use them to convey weather.

He loves Weather History.

He's pretty damn fine with the rhymes.

Again note the ebb and flow.

But pretend this is the track for a hurricane.

It would make it into the Caribbean.

Up across the Yucatan Channel.

Into the Gulf of Mexico.

And take aim at a landfall.

For July and August this is a concern.

And homegrown pop up storms off the SE coast.

That's what concerns me.

The purpose of Tropical Waves is NOT to make Hurricanes. Their purpose is to produce moisture into the atmosphere that travels West and arrives in the Great Plains during the height of our growing season giving the United States a fantastic Bread Belt that many countries envy. It's an incredible set up as they roll West, WNW and then up into the Gulf of Mexico delivering rains to hungry crops and that's good. Sometimes they roll West into the Pacific helping spark EPAC storms and sometimes hurricanes happen but really they will keep rolling off of Africa and if you get lucky their moisture works its way up into the Applachaians making the Great Smokey Mountains look smokey. There's more to the story than that but gotta love those tropical waves. One will get a name in the not so distant future, sometime in July. And we should see a hurricane that comes from one of these waves have the potential for trouble in the Gulf of Mexico so enjoy the quiet it won't last. 

You can use this link that is set to rain and thunder (I like that one) and toggle back and forth between the EURO and the GFS. I love the Windy site, but many don't realize you can do that so pointing it out.

https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?gfs,rain,2020-07-10-00,44.643,-49.375,3

As always all the models are on the top left of www.spaghettimodels.com so enjoy your day.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter (mostly weather) and Instagram (whatever)

Tropic Watch. Waiting For the Flip to Switch & The Real Hurricane Season Begins. Whatcha All Doing For the 4th of July?

Officially 2 Yellow Circles.

Not ready for prime time yet.

Area off East Coast actually interesting.

But not exciting.

Wave train doing it's thing.

Wide view below.

So there's the set up.

Not much going on.

Good week for a cruiise.

Well...if it wasn't 2020.

So let's look at the MIMIC.

Invest #96L is all show off today on the Mimic but watch that Carolina Yellow swirl. #neverforgettexas bunny rabbit wave hopping off of #Africa. Sound up for my voice & thoughts. #tropics #hurricaneseason still #June #2020 pic.twitter.com/hzWN6yi3fv

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 29, 2020

Be aware the water is very hot close in to Florida.

Luckily (or not) there's a strong High there in place.

Purple spot off the East Coast.

The Invest does not have one.

A Low forms off the Carolinas in the 3 Day.

If you click on this gride below....

...you'll see shear, SAL and vorticity.

There's so much to say today and nothing to say about the way the tropics look today. In advance of the real part of the Hurricane Season there is this set up that takes place where things actually get into place. Behind the scenes on stage there are props and the stage is set carefully for the actors to walk on stage and say their lines. If Harold decides to smoke a cigar in his favorite chair while spouting out his views on life there needs to be a chair and an ashtray for Harold to use. If a tap dancer is going to use a cane suddenly it needs to be somewhere on the stage for him to gray and if a girl wants to slam the door well...there's gotta be a door there to slam. 

So we are in set up stage and when you have watched the satellite loops as long as I have then you see the signs appearing that signal the start of the real Hurricane Season not so far away, but for the next couple of days we watch and we wait and we go about life planning our July 4th Weekend. The beaches are closed in South Florida area and as much as I'd like to do down there it ain't happening this year. I'm wondering if the Country Club across the street is still going to shoot off fireworks or should I just pretend? That kind of year I know.

As for me I'm working on a few projects, keeping busy, looping and enjoying the flow of discussion on the tropics with my friends online. Stay safe, stay happy and keep smiling.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter for mostly weather and Instagram for whatever.

Ps... Think it's an Alan Jackson Day. Hope Mike is talking today as I know he had a vacation planned...  well deserved.

Invest 96L in the East Atlantic. Another Area off the Carolinas is Forecast to Develop. Deja Vu Dolly System It Seems But Time Will Tell.

2 areas here to observe with low chances.

Invest 96L in the East Atlantic.

And a Deja Vu Dolly off the Carolinas.

Staying with the Invest as it's an Invest.

And it'd an African Tropical Wave.

And this is actually in the 2 day not the 5 day.

First we will look at it's "thumbprint"

It's early signature on Earthnull.

Below is satellite imagery.

Here's a loop from Tropical Tidbits.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=96L&product=vis

So those are our two yellow areas highlighted in the Tropical Atlantic with low possibilities of development down the road. As mentioned earlier this Deja Vu pattern with the models. A Dolly like storm develops off the Outer Banks and takes a similar track if you buy into the models. Further out into the real tropics is a strong wave with a possibility of development, but most likely we are talking short term vs long term as often waves that develop in early July struggle to form and then come undown falling apart at times.  Note it's on the 2 day Graphic Map from the NHC not the 5 day so what happens with it today should tell the tale. It's tough times this time of year to get a real hurricane to develop in Saharan Dust filled skies and marginally warm water and yet it happens at times.  In between the gales of dust there's an area that allows for development often, and some waves ride with dust better than others but that happens later in the season when the water is warmer. Florence was such a wave yet somehow she made it across the whole pond traveling with dust but Florence was later in the Season when the water was warmer, yet still Florence was one for the history books; belongs in Ripley's Believe It Or Not Tropical Museum. Take it one day at a time for now.

The low emerging off the Carolinas is visible in the 3 day NOAA forecast above. What is actually the funniest thing here is that if you look at the Florida Keys you see the green is stuck there; just rains and rains as it's the rainy season or is it broken or did it secede again as the Conch Nation or? Probably just rainy season but never seen anything like that ...that I remember. It's been there the last 2 days which basically means the 5 day forecast was rain, rain and more rain or just rain any time, anywhere so you've been warned. 

I'm not loving the new format that Blogger is dishing out, but that's typical it takes time to learn it and appreciate it or rant and rave about it. I'm too busy today to rant and rave so it is what it is so please bare with me.

I'll update on Monday with a full discussion of the Tropics this week as we slide into July :)

Have a good weekend and enjoy it the best you can where ever you are...

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Update Friday Afternoon Tropics Quiet. Huge High in Place & Yet Models Watching New African Waves. Pop Up Weather Close In to the Coast So Keep Your Eyes to the Skies!

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif 

Just updating to say nice wave train there.

Model support for something to form.

Next wave is beautiful.

See what happens. 

I'll update Sunday.

But I'd be surprised if there is no yellow circle by then.

As models have been bullish on it for a while.

 

Models beginning to reconsider the #African Wave Train down for distant consideration. NHC weighs that against SAL & Climo & waits a while. Close in nice hot #summer weather plan ur weekend accordingly pic.twitter.com/7T3m53jnmi

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 26, 2020

As you can see from the Middle Squares...

...on www.spaghettimodels.com

Nothing going on.

But remember that coastal weather if you are beach bound.

Bring along sunsceen and hand sanitizers.

And directing you down to the bottom left.

Same site. Yes, this is a How to do SpaghettiModels.

There's a great lightning tracker very useful.

Especially if you are planning on being outside.

Outside in the Summer with afternoon storms.

And note there's a satellite for Africa ;)

Nothing much happening in the Tropics right now except a lot of speculation and discussion on the African Wave Train. Boris did form in the EPAC and promptly took off to try and get out of the EPAC and just as promptly was downgraded. So far we have a busy season with practically no ACE. Accumulated Cyclone Energy is the definition if you don't want to Google that and aren't an ACE watcher; most mets today are always talking about ACE.

As for the speculation on the African Waves...

@BobbiStorm @crankywxguy He may have a point.... https://t.co/lDdtE37G1q

— Peter R Roach (@RoachAugustine) June 25, 2020

So I put the discussion with the video above and I'll only add models do show some development of those new waves yet they are battling the dust and they are far away and it's still June so we keep watching but after Bertha in 1996 broke that old rule about African Waves in July we've seen our fair share of weak, westbound waves fighting the odds to become usually mediocre short lived storms. So don't count out the wave train.

Closer in the weather for the weekend seems to be fair, however remember that anywhere along the coast this time of year you can have pop up showers especially in Florida and the Carolinas and as for Texas they have been dealing with rain for a while so always factor that in to the thought process. If you are going out along with your hand sanitizer remember to take the sunscreen and an umbrella if you are into that... being a Miami girl we never bother with umbrellas because the sun comes out and dries you off in about 4 minutes. Showers are refresing, you run inside fast, take cover and they are gone with the wind some where else.

Have a good safe and happy weekend, may no sad or bad news arise to upset you and may you only have good news, fun times and memories that last a long life time!

Sweet Tropical Dreams BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps...that movie yesterday I watched was long and good and lots of twists and turns and kind of mind blowing at times with lots of scenery of Miami and Cuba and oh my gosh I'd love to tell someone "Gracias" after bringing me a cortadito! I love Nespresso but it's just not the same. 

If you don't want to watch a 2 hour and 10 minute movie here's a quickie you'll enjoy that teaches you a good lesson about life. It's close to 7 minutes so think of it as a mini movie and I owe this to Larry Cosgrove who is a great meteorologist and loves music who insisted it's the best video and as usually Larry is right! Oh, he also says it will be a long, wild ride hurricane season once it starts going.



I have a grandson who calls me Abuela which is so cute... another one calls me Savta Bubby and that's cute and they are only two so they can call me anything they want... the other two year old calls me Grandma... what really is in a name? As long as you've still got the moves it doesn't really matter how old you are trust me. Love this song.... I knew it when I met him.... oooohhhhh and then I had to tell him to go.......   enjoy!

Tropics Thursday. Quiet Now But Is Trouble Waiting In The Wings? What's Your Favorite Hurricane Movie? Summer Here and Everyone Wants to Go Somewhere But Where?

NHC sasy they see nothing.

I see convection in GOM

And a weak stalled out front.

That gave it up to the huge High.

And I see a stronger wave off of Africa.

Earthnull below.

Loop below.

Cliff notes version.


New wave off Africa may be the one that models show juicing up the atmosphere and possibly developing. Or that moisture just flows up from the Caribbean. Where does the High move, go or hold up tells the story if we get something and where we get something. GFS keeps aiming at the GOM beaches but only time will tell. Strong high, for now Florida looks safe but looks can be deceiving.

Okay that is the end of the real Tropical Update, the rest you can enjoy if you'd like to read and enjoy the links, thoughts and the way my messy mind works.

This is going to be a short blog today because there's not much to say and I want to do a short blog for my friends who enjoy shorter vs longer. So I figured for the bored, creative types going out of their mind who chose not to take trips and go places maybe I could find something for yu to do, or you to do with yout kids or maybe you pooch likes watching you color. It wasn't easy. First I put "Mandelas Hurricane" into my browser and it offered me a book on Nelson Mandela. Obviously Google and I were not on the same page. Good book by the way, read it but not the type of Mandela I wanted.  Oh and when I said "short' I meant I was going to write more than talk tropics and show mutliple models you can see elsewhere. I really meant "Old School BobbiStorm" and obviously I have a problem spelling that word more than Mike does Spaghetti... really it's a thing.

https://www.amazon.com/Eye-Hurricane-Path-Darkness-Freedom/dp/1613748159

But this shows hows much the word Hurricane and the concept of being in the eye of a hurricane is burned into our brain and our consciousness as a metaphor for a trial, a tribulation and something we learn from after the storm has moved on and that's why she said in Twister "when you said you chased Tornadoes I thought it was a methaphor" which is a great line but my experience on Google today shows the reality of why she made that statement. She was also a therapist and they think different from you and me, analyzing everything we say, do and even our body language.

So here was an example of my trip through Google this morning and I do mean that metaphorically. I'm obviously in the mood for a trip but where and when and for how long remains the question and in my neck of the woods Covid cases are on the rise climbing high, not declining so I may have to take a visual trip.

Would love to track a hurricane and would love to be in a hurricane because that's who I am, if you thought I liked Fair Weather you are obvisouly reading the wrong blog. Some people want a hurricane to escape from life and others want it to knock down and blow away their school, or their kid's school (I have a friend who actually wished that all the time) and some want to stand outside in the storm then watch it get quiet and see the clouds disappear and enjoy every single moment of quiet staring at the wonder of it all yet knowing the back side of the storm will reappear and slap you in the face faster than you could ever imagine. It's awesome. And, as much as I love the eye I really love the bands, the bands of rain and watching things go flying in the wind and there is a sense of awe and wonder that can't be explained to someone who doesn't understand that. Some go to sleep, some hide in a closet and others stand there staring in wonder. Which one are you?

Note the progression of images as Google tried to find to read my mind but obviously not too many people want to color in a mandela of a hurricane and there might be a good product to make and sell online or not. Or just make your own or watch Twister and there really is a huge lack of really good hurricane movies. I mean how many times can you watch Key Largo? Actually, I'm going to watch a movie today my ex-husband recommended about Cuba and Florida as he said he thought of me and knew I'd love it so that's on my To Do List.

The trailer is below. The images of my trip around Google are also below. I'll update if and when some thing happens today. It's gonna rain in Raleigh and our temperatures are forecast to be lower so maybe I'll just sit and watch the rain from my balcony or take a walk or whatever.

Have a wonderful day. I'll be back sooner I think than many realize as the EPAC is trying hard to produce a cyclone. This is like watching someone give birth in slow motion, it ain't pretty. And yet the Atlantic with it's Dust Storm will probably produce something sooner rather than later so I just showed the 2 day because I'm a believer that Mother Nature can't wait to throw something else at us.

okay nice but no tho that bottom left one is pretty

okay that was better we got weather at least.

Oh wait I think Google got it!

Success tho really that's a boring Mandela 

Or you can color it interesting.

Kind of like life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.



or



Which one do you want to watch? Do you have a favorite Hurricane Movie? Hurricane movie about hurricanes not life or boxing or well you get the idea. Because we don't metaphorically chase hurricanes in truth we chase them or hide from them. Which are you?

Tropics Talk on Tropical Waves. Models. Still Watching Home Grown ... Remember Models Change They Ain't Necessarily So.

Let's look at the wide view.

I like wide views to get perspective.

Close up views for details.

Yes nice wave in the Atlantic.

Dolly is up there hard to find. 

TWC satellite up anove.

www.windy.com down below.

NHC has yet to put up a yellow circle.

Yet there are other sources to watch.

So I chose 2 squares from www.spaghettimodels.com

They go together well.

Top one shows how ready the water is for a good wave.

The bottom one shows tropical possibilities.

Purple splotches are often better than yellow circles.

Close in area near Texas I spoke on two days ago.

And the strong, fast swiming African wave.

I may not live and die by the models.

But dirty little secret...

...I will watch them at 3 AM when I can't sleep.

They may put me to sleep.

All blurs together a bit.

How to watch a model.

Current dressed in beige and corals.

Way too much white on the map for me.

Saharan Dust lighting up the sunset.

Cloaking the sun.

Then several days from now.

Oh look! Blues coming back in below.

Down the distant GFS road.

An impossibly fast moving system.

Goes splish splash back to it's favorite spot.

The EURO shows nothing...

...tho it does show enhanced convection there.

Time will tell.

Bottom Line:

For now what's out there?

2 strong, fast moving tropical waves.

Coming to a closed theater in our part of the world.

If movies are closed there's always satellite imagery

What don't tell you above SAL?

It doesn't eliminate tropical waves.

It separates fhe men from the boys.

The wave train keeps rolling.

Oh and below we have the EPAC

Manny Moe and no wait that's the Pep Boys.

Larry Moe and Curly.

Count a week from a named storm in the EPAC.

Something should form in the Atlantic.

We are poite early on we take turns.

Are you polite?

Or do you go after what you want....

Do you wait your turn?

Do you want it NOW?'

Just  wondering at 3 AM.

So remember as to the NHC main page.

It ain't necessarily so.

Because... things pop up often this year.

Faster in the Atlantic than the EPAC

And yes La Nina is doing stretching exercises.

Much love and Sweet Tropical Dreams.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps Since we have the GFS and the EURO.

Two versions of the same song.

It's the same song.

Choose your crooner.

Updated for Dolly -SAL Becomes a Star on Social Media. After SAL Comes Hurricanes. So Enjoy SAL For Now... 10 Things You Need to Know About SAL

So the NHC did that.

Not forecast to be here much longer.

Because 2020 ....

My feelings on this one below.

Next name EDOUARD   

Read notes from earlier if you haven't.

* * *

Let's get this out of the way fast.

Subtropical Depression #4

Does it become Dolly?

Sure hope not, a waste of a good name.

Let's break this image above down.

The small circle in the North Atlantic is FOUR

To the left is a huge cane like feature over Texas.

It's spinning a bit like a LandCane.

Kicking up the weather something wild.

And a new Wave leaves Africa.

Yes, despite the dust they keep rolling off.

And then there is the Saharan Dust.

This is the official link for watching Saharan Dust and Tropical Waves that both depart Africa headed towards our side of the world.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

Some things over time become repititive and now that we have social media things become repititive ad nauseum as after a while you just think "oh another article on the dust" and scroll on and yet what upsets me is the headlines and Click Bait doesn't tell the whole story. And, in truth in 2020 we are still trying to learn more about African Dust aka Saharan Dust aka SAL. Oh, and it's not really news other than it just traveled across the Atlantic and that's kind of like telling someone in Miami that a plane just left JFK headed for FLL because anyone who knows travel knows people fly into the Miami area these days via the flights going into Ft Lauderdale International Airport that actually is in Hollywood but I digress it's just a detail.

But I always say the devil is in the details so know sometimes the DUST moves in different directions l ike some old school lava lamp being repetititve but different, each time a bit more unique. Fun to watch and great for pictures if you are lucky enough to have it hover over your house that might be on a lake facing West somewhere in South Florida.

SAL has a great Press Agent.

Because it's not all coral, gold and bronze colors.

I have seen the Miami area like this ....

...but they don't put that pic in the travel brochures.

n el ferry de camino a casa; Culebra, Puerto Rico. @CycloforumsPR @adamonzon pic.twitter.com/oDUohzKKnw

— Sandra Mendez Hernandez (@sandra00775) June 23, 2020

True facts about Saharan Dust.

1.  Pretty Sunsets
2.  Cloaking Gray Haze laying over the city making it seem like a surreal scene in a movie.
3. Tropical Sunsets
4.  Asthma and other related respiratory diseases are on the rise and people warned to stay inside.
5.  Car Washes make a fortune as cars become covered in a gritty, grimy, sandy residue.
6.  What begins in Africa doesn't stay in Africa.
7.  Studies show it helps nourish the plant life in the Sargasso Sea.
8.  Fertilzes soil in the Amazon and Caribbean.
9.  It may be a contributor to fish kills and the Red Tide
10. Every Newspaper outlet, TV station and Social Media site will talk on Saharan Dust.

All of the above are true. And, it's bugging me but years ago they didn't call it Saharan Dust and I wish Dave Barry wrote a story on it; maybe he wrote one and I haven't found it yet. I'm sure he made jokes because before the rest of the world made it a phenomenon it was pretty much a local news story.

A nice travel blog well written with good information, pictures and not a long read so worth reading.
https://www.gotostcroix.com/climate-weather/saharan-dust-the-good-and-the-bad/

A thin layer of #Saharandust is in the surface of our cars, exterior tables, fans, etc. This extraordinary dense SAL was lifted from the Saharan desert and traveled to the Caribbean. The red color comes from the iron minerals that travel in this layer. pic.twitter.com/DRLP13kXRp

— Ada Monzón (@adamonzon) June 23, 2020

Good Tweet above.

Shows it's not all pretty sunsets on Instagram.

So yes article after article about the Saharan Dust but in a way it should get some play time because the dust covering your nice white sports car in Miami came all the way from Africa. That in itself is pretty cool if you ask me. I remember as a child my father didn't think it was so cool when he'd look down at the car and scream, "I told you not to write your name on the car everywhere I drive around town and people are going to see that" to which I smiled and giggled inwardly and note he didn't say he was going to have to go wash the car because he didn't do car washes often. Then my mother yelled out "I told you not to go outside because the dust will make you sick" and I'd think "it''s not dust it's sand" and then came Hurricane Season.

It's kind of that simple. First comes Saharan Dust and then those same global wind patterns bring us Hurricanes.

https://www.wlrn.org/post/smoky-science-umiami-study-finds-whats-foul-africa-fertilizer-amazon#stream/0

And the studies go on and on as we learn so many intersting things about how one factor from far away that travels across the ocean to a different continent nourishing or hindering the environment there. Think of those grains of sand like a microsycopic coconut bobbing across the surf from one island to another and years later a beautiful coconut tree stands strong swaying in the tropical breeze!

So remember those same trade winds that brought you pretty sunsets, dirty cars and possibly kept you inside more than the virus did ...........will also bring you tropical weather!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Updated! Four Forms From TD 95 - Most Likely Gets TD Status & Probably Becomes Dolly As It Put On Quite the Show This Afternoon. Tropics Monday... Something About Texas Keeps Sticking in My Head. SAL & Tropical Waves Duke It Out. Maybe Something HomeGrown Down the Tropical Road.

As of 5pm, NHC says we have a new Subtropical depression. Number 4 this season. It may brush New Foundland, in the days ahead. @7weather pic.twitter.com/bXzkyd95N4

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) June 22, 2020

To be clear here...

This is Subtropical Depression #4

Cone below.

So as I said a few minutes ago when the NHC rushed out and colored in 95L red and I won't go into this deeply. Know they do have it forecast to be at 40 MPH so it could get the name Dolly, however they show it only being that strong for about 6 hours or so ...so that's consistent with 2020 so far. It's been a bit erratice in movement not aligned with models when it did that dip today to allow it to be over warmer water and wrap up nicely. So we will see what really happens, but not going to impress any storm chasers much I can tell you that. The forecast intensity is in the Tropical Discussion and shown below.

Think I may make a Hurricane for dinner.

Well to go with dinner, of course.

All these names and such little ACE.

Can hear a few friend's head's exploding right now.

it is what it is and it is FOUR.

***

Yes, it's definitely an over performer.

NHC wording below.

I'm expecting advisories at 5 PM...

...or 8PM or 11PM 

Where is it going?

Out to sea.

But how close to land and again.......

....as a Subtropical it can have a larger windfield.

High Surf, etc.. time will tell.

Real soon........

The NHC has obviously fast tracked this today, after changing their mind on it, and they upped it to 40% Orange and now it's Red with discussion on becoming a Tropical Depression. I'm still not in love with it because well it's Subtropical and models take it out to sea but this is 2020 so every Invest gets a name I guess.... or most.

#95L so the cat came back... chances up to 40% again as it's got dance moves no one saw coming pic.twitter.com/U9DiN3N8Ls

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 22, 2020

If you are wondering on the D named storm for such a high latitutude let me take you back to 1962 when Daisy packed a big punch for a relatively weak system. Daisy was a late season storm not an early one so no two D storms are the same.

Hurricane Daisy (1962) - Wikipedia’s there was a Hurricane Daisy. How bout that https://t.co/m9zKMzAVCT

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 22, 2020

I was curious if 95L would develop last night...

...so being me I looked for D storms.

And wondered if Daisy had ever been used.

It was indeed.

I'll update with specifics IF the NHC upgrades soon.

Check back later... keep reading if you haven't done so.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Let's go with the middle squares on Spaghetti Models.

Nothing much going on as they walk back the circle.

NHC pulled the orange recast as yellow now.

Really don't want to waste the name Dolly...

...on some wishy washy subtropical. 

My baby brother had a fish named Dolly.

It died or committed suicide we aren't sure.

They went and got him another one.

But alas it wasn't Dolly.

We ain't got no Dolly today...

But down the road maybe soon enough.

Last night I was watching the MIMIC.

I was in a blue mood and thought that would help.

I kept watching that flow up into Texas.

My thoughts this morning:

New week. #MondayMorning watching Mimic loop at the #drama that is June & July in the deep #tropics. Closer in concerned on something #Homegrown when the time is right. #Existential #question is the time ever right? https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa #writing pic.twitter.com/UVL1jTPr6J

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) June 22, 2020

 I went on Twitter today and Thor posted this image.

That's odd as we hadn't spoken on it.

Yet we both had it in our minds.

There's a theory that explains that...

similar solutions arrived at differently.

Yet at the same time in space.

Nope not watching any models.

I peek here and there but nope.

My friend Jim always tells me...

..a pot won't boil if u keep checking on it.

(He's actually wrong enough heat it boils...

... but yeah I get it)

Took a screen shot last night to talk on it today.

Because it just keeps hitting me...

... with every new wave of moisture there.

That at some point close in something may form.

Would be right spot according to climo too.

So think on that a bit and check back later.

No more blue mood thankfully.

I kind of love Mondays these days :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... my other younger brother loved this song when he was little.

My mother had some "Best of old country hits" but all I remember is....

The Yellow Rose of Texas. Wonder what other songs were on it. He probably remembers.

Oh... it wasn't Elvis on the record, but as I don't remember who sang it on that record. Let's just go with Elvis as it's fun. My mother liked Italian Crooners from Philly ..specifically. I think that's what she said... she said a lot of things while listening to music, honestly I wasn't always listening.

I was probably thinking on hurricanes.