Tropics Thursday. Quiet Now But Is Trouble Waiting In The Wings? What's Your Favorite Hurricane Movie? Summer Here and Everyone Wants to Go Somewhere But Where?

NHC sasy they see nothing.

I see convection in GOM

And a weak stalled out front.

That gave it up to the huge High.

And I see a stronger wave off of Africa.

Earthnull below.

Loop below.

Cliff notes version.


New wave off Africa may be the one that models show juicing up the atmosphere and possibly developing. Or that moisture just flows up from the Caribbean. Where does the High move, go or hold up tells the story if we get something and where we get something. GFS keeps aiming at the GOM beaches but only time will tell. Strong high, for now Florida looks safe but looks can be deceiving.

Okay that is the end of the real Tropical Update, the rest you can enjoy if you'd like to read and enjoy the links, thoughts and the way my messy mind works.

This is going to be a short blog today because there's not much to say and I want to do a short blog for my friends who enjoy shorter vs longer. So I figured for the bored, creative types going out of their mind who chose not to take trips and go places maybe I could find something for yu to do, or you to do with yout kids or maybe you pooch likes watching you color. It wasn't easy. First I put "Mandelas Hurricane" into my browser and it offered me a book on Nelson Mandela. Obviously Google and I were not on the same page. Good book by the way, read it but not the type of Mandela I wanted.  Oh and when I said "short' I meant I was going to write more than talk tropics and show mutliple models you can see elsewhere. I really meant "Old School BobbiStorm" and obviously I have a problem spelling that word more than Mike does Spaghetti... really it's a thing.

https://www.amazon.com/Eye-Hurricane-Path-Darkness-Freedom/dp/1613748159

But this shows hows much the word Hurricane and the concept of being in the eye of a hurricane is burned into our brain and our consciousness as a metaphor for a trial, a tribulation and something we learn from after the storm has moved on and that's why she said in Twister "when you said you chased Tornadoes I thought it was a methaphor" which is a great line but my experience on Google today shows the reality of why she made that statement. She was also a therapist and they think different from you and me, analyzing everything we say, do and even our body language.

So here was an example of my trip through Google this morning and I do mean that metaphorically. I'm obviously in the mood for a trip but where and when and for how long remains the question and in my neck of the woods Covid cases are on the rise climbing high, not declining so I may have to take a visual trip.

Would love to track a hurricane and would love to be in a hurricane because that's who I am, if you thought I liked Fair Weather you are obvisouly reading the wrong blog. Some people want a hurricane to escape from life and others want it to knock down and blow away their school, or their kid's school (I have a friend who actually wished that all the time) and some want to stand outside in the storm then watch it get quiet and see the clouds disappear and enjoy every single moment of quiet staring at the wonder of it all yet knowing the back side of the storm will reappear and slap you in the face faster than you could ever imagine. It's awesome. And, as much as I love the eye I really love the bands, the bands of rain and watching things go flying in the wind and there is a sense of awe and wonder that can't be explained to someone who doesn't understand that. Some go to sleep, some hide in a closet and others stand there staring in wonder. Which one are you?

Note the progression of images as Google tried to find to read my mind but obviously not too many people want to color in a mandela of a hurricane and there might be a good product to make and sell online or not. Or just make your own or watch Twister and there really is a huge lack of really good hurricane movies. I mean how many times can you watch Key Largo? Actually, I'm going to watch a movie today my ex-husband recommended about Cuba and Florida as he said he thought of me and knew I'd love it so that's on my To Do List.

The trailer is below. The images of my trip around Google are also below. I'll update if and when some thing happens today. It's gonna rain in Raleigh and our temperatures are forecast to be lower so maybe I'll just sit and watch the rain from my balcony or take a walk or whatever.

Have a wonderful day. I'll be back sooner I think than many realize as the EPAC is trying hard to produce a cyclone. This is like watching someone give birth in slow motion, it ain't pretty. And yet the Atlantic with it's Dust Storm will probably produce something sooner rather than later so I just showed the 2 day because I'm a believer that Mother Nature can't wait to throw something else at us.

okay nice but no tho that bottom left one is pretty

okay that was better we got weather at least.

Oh wait I think Google got it!

Success tho really that's a boring Mandela 

Or you can color it interesting.

Kind of like life.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.



or



Which one do you want to watch? Do you have a favorite Hurricane Movie? Hurricane movie about hurricanes not life or boxing or well you get the idea. Because we don't metaphorically chase hurricanes in truth we chase them or hide from them. Which are you?

Wednesday, Day 17 Since Being Home Since My Son Grounded Me ;) Florida Gov Finally Issues Shelter in Place. What Is Normal Anymore?

True Confessions Time.

Yes, I watch him every morning.

I had issues with him in the beginning.

He definitely got with the program.

He's been a calm, reasonable voice.

"No one knows for sure when this will be over"

So true.

People hate the unknown....

...people hate living in limbo.

I've been home for 17 days.

And, honestly I'm fine.

I can deal with reading and being online.

Love researching, writing, cooking.

My oldest son grounded me.

I suffer from asthma....

...I'm prone to bronchitis.

So I have to be more careful.

Otherwise.. I'm fine.

Glad my last trip was Seattle... 

It was a beautiful trip.

But now I'm home, staying in.

Doing my thing.

We all have to do what we have to do...

That's the reality of right now.

This minute, this day, this week.

As for me I'm blogging...

...blogging as in writing a long blog.

Note shortly I will talk on the tropics again.

We are 2 months until Hurricane Season.

Hate to mention that but you can't hide forever.

As I'm typing I'm multi-tasking obviously as I'm watching the Governor with the sound down turning it up here and there when he says something very compelling; his images and graphs kind of tell the story without the sound. I'm listening and trying to pay attention to a class I have on the phone with friends in Crown Heights on Chassidus and we are saying prayers for people we know who are in the hospital battling the most severe effects of Covid-19. And we are staying connected as best as we can during a time that isn't an easy time yet it's a time that as long as we have our health we can cope with not running around to all the places we are so used to running around to when living a normal life. And, yet this has become slowly normal too even though it's not a normal we wished for but we are stuck with for the time being. 

I have a friend that posted this on Facebook the other day and he's not one to post very often, but when he has something to say he always nails it. This is so true and it's something really worth thinking on while we are secluded from our normal routine to realize that my ex-husband mentioned recently that despite living in busy NYC he can suddenly hear the sounds of birds and Spring vs the sounds of traffic that drown out the beauty of the world that hear often in Raleigh.  And, yet even here in Raleigh on my quiet street I can still here some traffic off in the distance usually but not anymore. Some people like the sound of traffic but when you realize you don't hear it suddenly it somehow hits home. In Wuhan the ever present smog and pollution disappeared and blue skies were seen for the first time in no one can remember when after they shut down the area to fight the illness that has traveled around the world.

Things I've learned or remembered or thought on over the last month or so.

When Romaine Lettuce begins to go bad... you can cut the darker part off and it lasts longer.

When you cook a huge turkey breast, you can save the large bones and use them to make soup.

Old Coffee in the Coffeemaker makes great Iced Coffee once put in the fridge.

Pick up the phone and call a friend and hear her voice rather than type fighting with auto correct.*

Plan out my day carefully because time lately moves fast and when you look up it's 2 PM... 

We've thought back on our lives and remembered the good and made lists of what we'd like to fix.

I really can't wait to go to Myrtle Beach again or sit and talk with a friend at Starbucks.

The list goes on and on.

*My friend and I raised our kids while talking on the phone nonstop all day on a phone with a long cord that was 25 feet long and got caught on dining room chairs, children and toys often. Our kids got used to the fact that we were on the phone nonstop talking about "the school" or hurricanes or projects we were working on for a group called Neshei Chabad that was a Women's Organization. Somehow with all our kids and work responsibilities we were responsible for putting on all the programs in South Florida from classes, trips to visit old people in nursing homes to fundraising fashion shows in mansions on the water with backdrops you see in fashion magazines to cooking for older people who were shut in recently released from the hospital but their children who lived far away called some Rabbi on Miami Beach who called us to ask us if we could send over broth every day because they could not eat solid food yet and yes we did and to be honest looking back I'm proud of the good things we did... while talking on the telephone all day on long corded phones while raising our children. Seems I was born to multi-task. 

Don't get me wrong we were not Saints but we did good deeds and we had a lot of fun laughing at things that happened while trying to get things done as life sometimes just gets in the way in the craziest of ways when you live in Miami. We had planned a large program for the World Premier of a book just being released by an author that many wanted to read with a large meet and greet at a local Synagogue and then a smaller breakfast to discuss raising children to be held outside at a beautiful home someone always lent us by the Bay with a huge lawn to set up chairs and tables and........while arranging this.... after paying for all the things needed Channel 7 News put out a bulletin that there was an Encephalitis Alert and people should wear dark clothes and stay indoors. I think it was 1990... who remembers? We looked at each other in terror than laughed hysterically until we had tears in our eyes. What else could possibly happen next?  Spoiler alert... it was lifted before the night of the large program with 300 people attending and luckily it wasn't hurricane season; life in tropical Miami.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/health/fl-zika-encephalitis-outbreaks-florida-20160812-story.html

I was once sitting at the water's edge in the Florida Keys at a small motel my friend owned watching an Ibis wander through the mangroves, dangling my feet in the water and this huge old plane appeared out of nowhere flying low... very low over where I was sitting enjoying the quiet moment in nature and then I realized it wasn't a scene in some old TV show I used to watch but ... they were spraying mosquito poison everywhere the way they did when I was a little girl before they stopped spraying for mosquitoes all the time because they found out it wasn't much healthier for humans than it was for the mosquitoes that seemed immune to it anyway. When the cars were not covered in mosquito spray with ingredients now outlawed from use they were covered in gritty red African Dust aka SAL and no the Chamber of Commerce in Miami never advertised that when Jackie Gleason said Miami was the Greatest Place on Earth. Life went on..

But we haven't seen anything like this in many moons and generally only seen in the movies. Jim Williams was talking the other day on how similar this is to the movie Contagion. Many online have mentioned that and wondered how that could be. It's easy in that whether you realize it or not people are always and forever researching how to battle Germ Warfare or the accidental release of a germ that is being studied into the general population that is prone to mutating. Really I took two different classes in college on Germ Warfare for my degree in International Relations; one was a compare and contrast on the reality of that occurring vs the release of nuclear materials or a nuclear accident and the other class was in description of the most deadly designed viruses and how it would impact the public both financially and politically. Expanding on that last class the most dangerous was one that would impact the lungs and attack older people thereby taking out the structure and fabric of society both economically and more so politically. Basic classes for people in various fields of study such as International Relations. Haven't seen the movie, it's on my short to do list though my husband did a while back when I was out of town as normally I hate scary movies but this is one I do want to watch.

So my friend who was going shopping anyway bought some groceries for me carefully... brought it here leaving it outside. I watched as she sprayed all the paper bags with disinfectant and we talked from a distance me inside her way outside wearing her mask and gloves and it was good to see her and as she left she said "can't wait for us to be able to just go out to Starbucks and sit and talk" and yeah that would be normal and nice. Then I put the stuff out onto the balcony as it's cool today and tonight, carefully washed down a few products to put away for Passover and there's some lettuce drying on the counter on a towel for my husband's salad. I'm pretty sure I got all the soap off the various produce. Hmnnn Is this normal?

My friend in the hospital went home last night, actually I was friends with her mother and my aunt but now I follow her on Instagram account Busy in Brooklyn where she shares incredible recipes. My friend Devorah Leah who lives in Crown Heights who usually teaches our phone class is still in the hospital but said to be stronger today and hopefully she will be home for Shabbos before Friday Night. Then my daughter sent a message that our friend Yudi's mother in Crown Heights was taken to the hospital and the list goes on. I spoke to my best friend at 2 PM or 2:45 after I got done disinfecting everything and taking a shower and we talked on life and compared notes and well no more long 25 foot cords but still laughing and talking and being honest with each other and that's good.

So from my house to yours... I wish you bananas and strawberry jam and apples and candy and that you and your loved ones live through this and we all get back to sitting at Starbucks talking on life and complaining we don't like the new straws :)

Wednesday, April 1st. 60 days until the hurricane season and I will talk on that soon as I have much to say but I don't want to yell "FIRE!" in a crowded theater which I do feel like talking on how bad the hurricane season could be. Hopefully, by then the curve will have flattened and medication will be found that is 100% effective and we can find a vaccine and we can all get back to hugging and going to parties and sitting at Starbucks taking pictures of our favorite new drink.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Life does go on, it evolves... what's normal changes and then something else become normal. Having to talk holding a phone with a cord (even a 25 foot cord...) kind of tied you down. Then we were online on AOL and we never left the computer because you couldn't take the IM with you. Then we were able to talk on Text Messages so we were able to go to the store and have a more normal life and then.......our phones became our computers and then ...well you get the idea. What is normal changes often but still here typing, writing, thinking out loud and talking to my friends here, there and everywhere.

Good old movie... watched it on TV when I was little on one of those channels that showed old movies over and over and I bet it was great on Broadway. But we can stay home and watch old movies and songs and scenes and plays online while hiding from the world while staying home and staying safe. 

Dorian NW 6 MPH - TS Fernand Develops.. TD 8 Develops. Landfall or Eye Stays Off the Coast? Either Way Impacts Happen

Savannah to OBX 

BUT... from St. Marys Georgit to Savannah...

There will be strong impacts.

High water, flooding.

Time will tell.

But from especially Myrtle Beach to OBX.

South Carolina/North Carolina.

Ocean Isle Beach... 

Really under the gun for a possible landfall.

Models show it.

History shows it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_

at5+shtml/152656.shtml?gm_track#contents

Interactive product takes you down to street level.

At 11 PM we review a new cone.

Until then we prepare for a possible landfall.

Or... dangerous impacts from Dorian just offshore.

NHC is doing a fantastic job.

Models in agreement.

That blog explains why.......

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/09/

dorian-models-tropics-models-coming.html

Earlier today I wrote this blog:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/09/

dorian-models-tropics-models-coming.html

I would like to please read it.

Scroll through it.

It explains why models converging on landfall.

Or just offshore.

Again this can and often changes.

Dorian King of the Hurricanes.

NHC Cone keeps it just barely offshore.

What do I think?

I think anyone in that cone...

...needs to prepare as if they expect landfall.

So far it avoided Florida landfall but...

... you can't take that to the bank.

In a stand alone separate blog I talked models.

NHC cone has it at 80 W.

Almost all large landfalling Hurricanes in Carolinas

Hit 80West.

Helene did NOT hit 80 West and was a miss.

I say this because IF NHC moves track East of 80 West.

Down the line.....

...would give us some breathing room.

BUT...we would still need to prepare.

I did yesterday so I could write today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene_(1958)

Gee that doesn't make me feel better.

Meaning Invest 91L is TD 8

Predicted to be a FISH STORM.

One behind it shouldn't be ...

It's covered in my stand alone blog. 

Cranky wrote an awesome blog.

Responding to the question...

... could Dorian miss landfall.

He doesn't say it will or won't.

He shows what to look for that...

...could happen.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

More later.

Track a bit closer to Tex Mex Coast now.

but expected to make landfall in Mexico.

Note the one they didn't name is shown below.

Invest 91L

I get it Fernand making Landfall soon.

Small chance of RI and it gets tronger.

91L out there lumbering along waiting.

An example of why SAL doesn't always matter.

And why SAL just keeps storms forming closer in.

Closer in = Landfall and Land impact.

Got it?

Once they get past 50 West... 

Silent runners start screaming Twist and Shout.. 

Below is an image from Hollywood Beach.

Note where water is... is the beach.

Where people sunbathe... 

kids play volleyball while flirting :)

Old people sit and in chairs looking OUT at the water.

People eat in restaurants on the boardwalk...

...watching out at the water...

That's not some storm surge with waves.

Crazy really.

TIDE COMING IN...

across a wide beach.

Up to buildings.

Not from storm surge.

As for Dorian and the Carolinas.
Watches and warnings up INLAND.
Not a good sign.
1... flooding inland happens.
If Dorian doesn't grab the ticket out to sea.
Dorian slams into SC/NC border
As it's a large size system now...
..moisture and winds go far inland.

IF steering currents get weak.
And it gets lifted...
...pulls North past Florida.
And misses it's fast train out of town.
It could stall, loop off the coast.
Sometimes hurricanes do that.
No models that I know of are showing it.
If any models show that... I'd worry on it.
Just my thoughts for now.

Oh and putting together a new blog.

Models on future systems.

And possible problems in Dorian's future track.

With regard to Carolinas.... 

That's a long way out.

Remember I said to worry on the wave behind 91L

That's why. And not calling 91L a fish yet.

Good sign. 

Dorian seems to be really moving.

5 MPH NW now.

Keep watching.

Radar shows a weaker storm also.

Why you ask?

Where are the orange and reds?

Nice defined eye on radar.

It's become elongated towards North...

vs moving fast.

Give it time...

Note it's a bit top heavy now...

Feeling the tug to go North.

God Bless Chick really.

He is a true treasure.

Especially a Carolina treasure.

I meant to put up the watches and warnings.

Posted the blog and checked his thoughts out.

Oh watches and warnings... that's right.

Here's the watches and warnings below.

Are we busy yet?

A close up of the NHC cone shows watches and warnings.

Up to NC/VA border for now.

See the water vapor image below...

Yellow/Orange here is high pressure.

The gray is opening.. moisture.

To NW...then North.

You see the track and cone.

Even that Invest to the Right is saying.

Come on Dorian you can do this..

Dorian currently has winds of 110 MPH.

Cat 2.

As I said earlier today Dorian was not going to be Cat 3.

That means the last forecast package was seriously off.

Now a Cat 2.

Why?

Dry air intrusion as evidenced below in this image.

Yellow air creeping into the heart of Dorian.

From the South...up around the top.

Attacking it's core.

Dorian is STILL attacking Grand Bahamas.

NHC pointed out they are still getting..

storm surge, high winds, storms.

See how close the center still is ...

...it's barely moving.

Beginning to but... barely.

NW at 2 mph.

I can walk faster than that in heels

It bugs me when people say Dorian moves erratically.

When did it ever move erratically? 

The forecast sometimes is wrong.

The models FLIP FLOP often.

But Dorian has moved slowly and steady.

First 12 to 15 MPH

Slowed slowly.

Then stalled.

Now crawling.

Main basic track the whole time.

Adjusting for being further North now.

Where hurricanes interact with fronts.

And feel the pull to go North towards the Poles.

That is not an erratic track.

This is the problem when you track models.

You want to see erratic?

Below is the Queen of erratic.

Hurricane Betsy.

What next? 

We wait and watch.

There's a tug from the upper air feature that wants to grab it.

If you remember it sent it a ticket before.

A ticket to ride (see previous blog)

But Dorian never wants to say goodbye to Bahamas.

It will...trust me.

But that Cone is precariously close to the coast.

Also Dorian's signature the whole time.

So at some point can it make landfall? Yes..

Will it? We don't know for now.

Follow the cone. 

NHC changes it every 6 hours.

So it lands in the Cone ... 

They forecast a Tropical Storm at landfall.

A year of landfalling storms so far......

... more to come.

I don't want to scare you.

I just don't want you to eat your hurricane food...

As for PTC 7 it is no2 TD 7

Changes in that forecast also.

It is now predicted to become a TS.

Next name is Fernand.

Tho it's a busy time so stay tuned.

Invest by Africa could steal the name.

But NHC probably will go for continuity.

ERIN and DORIAN messy if u remember.

Happens sometimes.

Details... more storms forming soon.

I will discuss models later today.

I also want to watch WV Loop on Dorian

And how it interacts with it's ticket to ride.

I will give you my thoughts then.

These things are organic and develop over time.

A light doesn't go off and say DORIAN WILL STALL.

I said that last Thursday. 

Because I knew it would based on set up and history.

I didn't think it would stall as a 185 MPH Cane.

But I could see the stall coming.

Same way I saw it lifting over PR VI.

Not based on ever changing models.

Based on knowledge of water vapor loop.

Knowledge of history.

Understanding the upper air triggers.

I went out on a limb with Dorian.

I said it would survive beyond TD and TS.

It was extremely well organized.

It's big thunderstorm complex was always dead center.

Nice pocket waiting to fill up.

Some things you just know.

Like what a Cat 2 looks like on sat imagery.

And what will not maintain a Cat 3.

I've said before and this is my bottom line NOW.

It's a math problem.

Land interaction along Florida a minus for strength.

HOT WATER over Gulfstream a plus for strength.

Shear form approaching system a minus.

If it's core stays strong that's a plus ...

Dry Air Instrustion a minus.

It's all about math.

I'll be updating all day.

As for this 90% red.

Come on NHC you can handle 3 systems.

I know it's very far away...prob fish storm.

But still looking good.

Earthnull.

Note models show the next system.

Staying low...headed to the Islands.

Caribbean? East Coast? GOM?

Stay tuned.

I'll update tonight on models ...

Look at the arrows off the chart on the bottom.

Wow you should see the models...

www.spaghettimodels.com

Top left there's a link for models.

GFS EURO.. etc.

As for the system off Africa... 

Closed enough I'd think to be a TD.

Below our two named systems.

Image from earlier below.

Still so close.

Oh Lord Dorian ... cut the cord.

And just let go...

Pretty shot from a little while ago.
Still beautiful on Water Vapor.

The 5 day is above.

Note they have Dorian as a MAJOR hurricane...

Through Thursday at 2 AM.

From their 5 AM discussion.

"system is likely to remain a major hurricane...

...for the next few days"

Though "likely" is not a firm word...

...shows some hedging.

See the graphics below.

As things stand now this is NOT going to verify.

Caveat here in that it can intensify over Gulfstream.

BUT they also talked long on shear there.

So you can't have it both ways.

So let us look at Dorian together.

Currently it's still there...

...still crazy spinning nearby.

Moving at "1 mph" (yeah right)

Signature is that of a Cat 2 Hurricane currently.

Photographic.

Cat 3 Canes have that hedgehog look.

Cat 4/5 buzz saw

You see each category has a signature.

Cat 2 Canes are large, sprawling and beautiful.

Big arms

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

There is a degradation of the eye going on.

Could be very temporary.

Still intense energy but not as strong.

Moving soon.

Moving eventually.

It's basically a top spinning.

At some point it stops.

That made me wonder?

How long can a top spin?

It seems to have beaten that record.

Guinness world record is 27 hours ... 

Looking at the WV it's obvious

Dorian could take her ticket to ride..

...and start gliding.

vs crawling at 1 MPH NW.

But poor thing is probably plumb exhausted.

As the sun comes up....

Dorian is still there.

But losing it's eye.

Remember that.

It's as if it's tied there.

To the spot.

I'll give you my bottom line currently.

1. If the intensity forecast for Dorian is so busted.

(what else is new)

It could change everything in small ways.

Every small change extrapolated over time.

Becomes a big change.

Out to sea.

Landfall somewhere.

Want you to remember a Hurricane is more than the eye.

Impacts of all kind may slide up the whole coast.

I'm waiting.

Great song below.

My baby brother loved this as a baby ;)

Takes a bit to get to the song.

But hey you been watching Dorian for days.

Things change slowly...

...but change grows over time.

Inch by inch...

Dorian has company in PTC7 in GOM.

Not currently forecast to get a name.

It's close to land.

Next up should be the one by Africa.

Much going on...

Watch the one behind coming off Africa now... 

Orange.....

Check out the great loop below.

I'll update in a bit.

Not much has changed.

Our 15km MPAS is now updating for the 6z cycle. Here's a look at the model's forecast for Major Hurricane #Dorian. Note the large eye of the hurricane remains offshore. Rain bands are still predicted to impact coastal Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the next 2 days. pic.twitter.com/xVX1S6oK9y

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2019

Before going into facts.
Think on this...
...what is in a name?

Okay Dorian Gray didn't age.....

...and Dorian 2019 doesn't move.

Again update after the 11 Package .. I want to eat breakfast, watch Mike on Facebook Live.
Stare at some loops and talk some more. The 5 AM is not going to verify, if Major intensity isn't what else won't intensify? Track or Timing? Stay tuned. More Dorian Drama.