Dorian NW 6 MPH - TS Fernand Develops.. TD 8 Develops. Landfall or Eye Stays Off the Coast? Either Way Impacts Happen
Savannah to OBX
BUT... from St. Marys Georgit to Savannah...
There will be strong impacts.
High water, flooding.
Time will tell.
But from especially Myrtle Beach to OBX.
South Carolina/North Carolina.
Ocean Isle Beach...
Really under the gun for a possible landfall.
Models show it.
History shows it.
Interactive product takes you down to street level.
At 11 PM we review a new cone.
Until then we prepare for a possible landfall.
Or... dangerous impacts from Dorian just offshore.
NHC is doing a fantastic job.
Models in agreement.
That blog explains why.......
Earlier today I wrote this blog:
I would like to please read it.
Scroll through it.
It explains why models converging on landfall.
Or just offshore.
Again this can and often changes.
Dorian King of the Hurricanes.
NHC Cone keeps it just barely offshore.
What do I think?
I think anyone in that cone...
...needs to prepare as if they expect landfall.
So far it avoided Florida landfall but...
... you can't take that to the bank.
In a stand alone separate blog I talked models.
NHC cone has it at 80 W.
Almost all large landfalling Hurricanes in Carolinas
Hit 80West.
Helene did NOT hit 80 West and was a miss.
I say this because IF NHC moves track East of 80 West.
Down the line.....
...would give us some breathing room.
BUT...we would still need to prepare.
I did yesterday so I could write today.
Gee that doesn't make me feel better.
Meaning Invest 91L is TD 8
Predicted to be a FISH STORM.
One behind it shouldn't be ...
It's covered in my stand alone blog.
Cranky wrote an awesome blog.
Responding to the question...
... could Dorian miss landfall.
He doesn't say it will or won't.
He shows what to look for that...
...could happen.
More later.
Track a bit closer to Tex Mex Coast now.
but expected to make landfall in Mexico.
Note the one they didn't name is shown below.
Invest 91L
I get it Fernand making Landfall soon.
Small chance of RI and it gets tronger.
91L out there lumbering along waiting.
An example of why SAL doesn't always matter.
And why SAL just keeps storms forming closer in.
Closer in = Landfall and Land impact.
Got it?
Once they get past 50 West...
Silent runners start screaming Twist and Shout..
Below is an image from Hollywood Beach.
Note where water is... is the beach.
Where people sunbathe...
kids play volleyball while flirting :)
Old people sit and in chairs looking OUT at the water.
People eat in restaurants on the boardwalk...
...watching out at the water...
That's not some storm surge with waves.
Crazy really.
TIDE COMING IN...
across a wide beach.
Up to buildings.
Not from storm surge.
Watches and warnings up INLAND.
Not a good sign.
1... flooding inland happens.
If Dorian doesn't grab the ticket out to sea.
Dorian slams into SC/NC border
As it's a large size system now...
..moisture and winds go far inland.
IF steering currents get weak.
And it gets lifted...
...pulls North past Florida.
And misses it's fast train out of town.
It could stall, loop off the coast.
Sometimes hurricanes do that.
No models that I know of are showing it.
If any models show that... I'd worry on it.
Just my thoughts for now.
Oh and putting together a new blog.
Models on future systems.
And possible problems in Dorian's future track.
With regard to Carolinas....
That's a long way out.
Remember I said to worry on the wave behind 91L
That's why. And not calling 91L a fish yet.
Good sign.
Dorian seems to be really moving.
5 MPH NW now.
Keep watching.
Radar shows a weaker storm also.
Why you ask?
Where are the orange and reds?
Nice defined eye on radar.
It's become elongated towards North...
vs moving fast.
Give it time...
Note it's a bit top heavy now...
Feeling the tug to go North.
God Bless Chick really.
He is a true treasure.
Especially a Carolina treasure.
I meant to put up the watches and warnings.
Posted the blog and checked his thoughts out.
Oh watches and warnings... that's right.
Here's the watches and warnings below.
Are we busy yet?
A close up of the NHC cone shows watches and warnings.
Up to NC/VA border for now.
See the water vapor image below...
Yellow/Orange here is high pressure.
The gray is opening.. moisture.
To NW...then North.
You see the track and cone.
Even that Invest to the Right is saying.
Come on Dorian you can do this..
Dorian currently has winds of 110 MPH.
Cat 2.
As I said earlier today Dorian was not going to be Cat 3.
That means the last forecast package was seriously off.
Now a Cat 2.
Why?
Dry air intrusion as evidenced below in this image.
Yellow air creeping into the heart of Dorian.
From the South...up around the top.
Attacking it's core.
Dorian is STILL attacking Grand Bahamas.
NHC pointed out they are still getting..
storm surge, high winds, storms.
See how close the center still is ...
...it's barely moving.
Beginning to but... barely.
NW at 2 mph.
I can walk faster than that in heels
It bugs me when people say Dorian moves erratically.
When did it ever move erratically?
The forecast sometimes is wrong.
The models FLIP FLOP often.
But Dorian has moved slowly and steady.
First 12 to 15 MPH
Slowed slowly.
Then stalled.
Now crawling.
Main basic track the whole time.
Adjusting for being further North now.
Where hurricanes interact with fronts.
And feel the pull to go North towards the Poles.
That is not an erratic track.
This is the problem when you track models.
You want to see erratic?
Below is the Queen of erratic.
Hurricane Betsy.
What next?
We wait and watch.
There's a tug from the upper air feature that wants to grab it.
If you remember it sent it a ticket before.
A ticket to ride (see previous blog)
But Dorian never wants to say goodbye to Bahamas.
It will...trust me.
But that Cone is precariously close to the coast.
Also Dorian's signature the whole time.
So at some point can it make landfall? Yes..
Will it? We don't know for now.
Follow the cone.
NHC changes it every 6 hours.
So it lands in the Cone ...
They forecast a Tropical Storm at landfall.
A year of landfalling storms so far......
... more to come.
I don't want to scare you.
I just don't want you to eat your hurricane food...
As for PTC 7 it is no2 TD 7
Changes in that forecast also.
It is now predicted to become a TS.
Next name is Fernand.
Tho it's a busy time so stay tuned.
Invest by Africa could steal the name.
But NHC probably will go for continuity.
ERIN and DORIAN messy if u remember.
Happens sometimes.
Details... more storms forming soon.
I will discuss models later today.
I also want to watch WV Loop on Dorian
And how it interacts with it's ticket to ride.
I will give you my thoughts then.
These things are organic and develop over time.
A light doesn't go off and say DORIAN WILL STALL.
I said that last Thursday.
Because I knew it would based on set up and history.
I didn't think it would stall as a 185 MPH Cane.
But I could see the stall coming.
Same way I saw it lifting over PR VI.
Not based on ever changing models.
Based on knowledge of water vapor loop.
Knowledge of history.
Understanding the upper air triggers.
I went out on a limb with Dorian.
I said it would survive beyond TD and TS.
It was extremely well organized.
It's big thunderstorm complex was always dead center.
Nice pocket waiting to fill up.
Some things you just know.
Like what a Cat 2 looks like on sat imagery.
And what will not maintain a Cat 3.
I've said before and this is my bottom line NOW.
It's a math problem.
Land interaction along Florida a minus for strength.
HOT WATER over Gulfstream a plus for strength.
Shear form approaching system a minus.
If it's core stays strong that's a plus ...
Dry Air Instrustion a minus.
It's all about math.
I'll be updating all day.
As for this 90% red.
Come on NHC you can handle 3 systems.
I know it's very far away...prob fish storm.
But still looking good.
Earthnull.
Note models show the next system.
Staying low...headed to the Islands.
Caribbean? East Coast? GOM?
Stay tuned.
I'll update tonight on models ...
Look at the arrows off the chart on the bottom.
Wow you should see the models...
Top left there's a link for models.
GFS EURO.. etc.
As for the system off Africa...
Closed enough I'd think to be a TD.
Below our two named systems.
Image from earlier below.
Still so close.
Oh Lord Dorian ... cut the cord.
And just let go...
Pretty shot from a little while ago.
Still beautiful on Water Vapor.
The 5 day is above.
Note they have Dorian as a MAJOR hurricane...
Through Thursday at 2 AM.
From their 5 AM discussion.
"system is likely to remain a major hurricane...
...for the next few days"
Though "likely" is not a firm word...
...shows some hedging.
See the graphics below.
As things stand now this is NOT going to verify.
Caveat here in that it can intensify over Gulfstream.
BUT they also talked long on shear there.
So you can't have it both ways.
So let us look at Dorian together.
Currently it's still there...
...still crazy spinning nearby.
Moving at "1 mph" (yeah right)
Signature is that of a Cat 2 Hurricane currently.
Photographic.
Cat 3 Canes have that hedgehog look.
Cat 4/5 buzz saw
You see each category has a signature.
Cat 2 Canes are large, sprawling and beautiful.
Big arms
There is a degradation of the eye going on.
Could be very temporary.
Still intense energy but not as strong.
Moving soon.
Moving eventually.
It's basically a top spinning.
At some point it stops.
That made me wonder?
How long can a top spin?
It seems to have beaten that record.
Guinness world record is 27 hours ...
Looking at the WV it's obvious
Dorian could take her ticket to ride..
...and start gliding.
vs crawling at 1 MPH NW.
But poor thing is probably plumb exhausted.
As the sun comes up....
Dorian is still there.
But losing it's eye.
Remember that.
It's as if it's tied there.
To the spot.
I'll give you my bottom line currently.
1. If the intensity forecast for Dorian is so busted.
(what else is new)
It could change everything in small ways.
Every small change extrapolated over time.
Becomes a big change.
Out to sea.
Landfall somewhere.
Want you to remember a Hurricane is more than the eye.
Impacts of all kind may slide up the whole coast.
I'm waiting.
Great song below.
My baby brother loved this as a baby ;)
Takes a bit to get to the song.
But hey you been watching Dorian for days.
Things change slowly...
...but change grows over time.
Inch by inch...
Dorian has company in PTC7 in GOM.
Not currently forecast to get a name.
It's close to land.
Next up should be the one by Africa.
Much going on...
Watch the one behind coming off Africa now...
Orange.....
Check out the great loop below.
I'll update in a bit.
Not much has changed.
Our 15km MPAS is now updating for the 6z cycle. Here's a look at the model's forecast for Major Hurricane #Dorian. Note the large eye of the hurricane remains offshore. Rain bands are still predicted to impact coastal Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the next 2 days. pic.twitter.com/xVX1S6oK9y— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2019
Before going into facts.
Think on this...
...what is in a name?
Think on this...
...what is in a name?
Okay Dorian Gray didn't age.....
...and Dorian 2019 doesn't move.
Stare at some loops and talk some more. The 5 AM is not going to verify, if Major intensity isn't what else won't intensify? Track or Timing? Stay tuned. More Dorian Drama.
Labels: dorian, forecast, GOM, hurricane, Map, movies, music, PTC7, season, track, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:10 AM
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