Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 02, 2019

Updated 11 PM - Dorian STILL Stationary in the Bahamas. Got a Ticket to Ride......... 3 Invests Being Tracked. Fernand Should Be Named Soon Near Africa. Everyone's Watching Dorian From FL to NC Waiting on Dorian to Turn. Destruction in Bahamas.



Hasn't moved.
Stationary.
Over Grand Bahamas.


Stationary.


Bits of pieces of discussion from NHC.


Stationary, spinning over Grand Bahama.
NHC expecting the turn to come soon.
Okay... eventually.......


"Weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge"
By Tuesday afternoon........
Then "near, but parallel to, the Florida East Coast"
oh... 
"Only a small deviation of the track towards the West..
...would bring the core of the hurricane onshore"

"track models show the center precariously...
...close to the southeastern United States coast"
Seems a bit of low confidence here... 


Lastly.....VERY GOOD POINT.
"the hurricane is not a point, and that life threatening
storm surge and hurricane force winds extend...
far from the center"


Closest point to the coast at 11 PM
(things change often as we know)

Is on approach to Myrtle Beach..
..then bends as does the NC coast...
cruising by Wilmington.
Cape Fear.



Imagine Cantore and crew will be back.
Myrtle Beach ?
Wilmington ?
OBX ? 

Time will tell.
Keep reading if you have not.
I'll update in the morning.
GREAT LOOP.
Historic storm developing over 8 day.
Long loop over 8 days of Dorian.
From swirl to strong Cat 5.
Always said it would make it.
Always said it had a shape..
..and would be a classic hurricane.
Never expected it to be as historic tho..



atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Still stationary at 9 PM
5 PM below on bottom of cone.
Stationary......






Check that out.

Note this loop... and discussion.
Well done.
Note it's not moving.
Don't look at every frame.
OH ITS GOING NORTH
OH WEST
OH...."never mind"

It's looping, spinning like a top.
It needs to stop and move.
For the sake of people in the Bahamas...
...those alive who can be helped still.
Not just to see which way it's going.



Official discussion on movement.
Nearly stationary.
Should move soon.
Dorian has a ticket to ride.
But does it care?
5 PM NHC DISCUSSION below.



5 PM still a Major Hurricane.
Waiting to ride up the coast.
But not yet.
Currently nearly stationary.
That should change soon...
Look at the image below.
Not much of a ridge there ...

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line ...
...at the top.
Cliff Notes in a way ...

1. Weakness in the ridge.
2. Nearly stationary now but not for long.
3. Moves up the coast bring drama everywhere.
4. Evacuations just in case.......
5. Everyone in Carolinas ... hold their collective breaths.
6. Wind probabilities show everyone is in it!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIAPWSAT5+shtml/022044.shtml?
7. Watches and warnings shown here.
Pink up the coast through Carolina.



8. If you are in this grid you may feel Dorian impacts.
Not saying landfall... high wind, power outages.


I'm in it. EURO today says I get high winds...
All my favorite ports of call in danger :(
Stay tuned.
This and all cones change over time ...sometimes.

The explanation for my Bottom Line up at the top.
Is below. Keep reading or just enjoy the music.
Whatever works for you is fine for me..
Oh... after Dorian an update on our 4 systems.
2 or 3 Invests and next tropical storms shown after.


Older image above.
New image below.
Compare and contrast.



You see Dorian?
You see the moisture to the North?
Remember all those other 2019 systems?
They slipped away....
Got absorbed and slid away?

But Dorian is a Major Hurricane.
Doesn't get absorbed.
Does what it wants.
Sits and spins.
But it begins ....
...to feel it's BREAK IN THE RIDGE
(do you see a ridge there? No you see convection)

And it's got a ticket to ride.......


Up the coast...

But where?
The Cape? Blowing kisses to the Cape.
Dorian driving people crazy....
Tybee Island and Savannah?
It's got good taste for a travel plan...
Charleston? Wilmington?
Nodding...
OBX hmnnn maybe.

We will know once Dorian really MOVES.
How close to the coast it will get.
And either way flooding, storm surge 
Beach erosion... 
High Winds and Rain is the name of it's game.



So this is where we are tonight.
Back where we were this morning.
But change is in the wind.
But til then...
...Dorian will bobble around a bit.
So what is it doing?
It's sort of dancing with the island.
Almost tracing the coastline.
When we have huge hurricanes down ...
...near Roatan in Caribbean this happens often.
They seem to suddenly bobble around it.
Bounce off...
I've seen is so many times.


A good loop and discussion from Cranky.
Back from a funeral for a friend's parent.
Farmer's Market excursion.
Back looping looking at Dorian.
Spoiler Alert.
It's not moving.
Not 1 MPH North
Not 1 MPH West

I came home and finally looked at Dorian.
I looped. I put the pointer in the middle.
It's not moving. Deal with it.
Be patient, this was forecast.
Last week I said it would stall.
NHC said it would stall Saturday Nite/Sunday AM.
It stalled. Spinning.

Major hurricanes that anchor and spin.
Wobble a bit like an ice skater spinning



As perfect as she is.....
...there's a bit of wobble.
It's how things spin.

You can look at this loop and see.
No movement.

But this is good.
And I know it's driving people crazy ....
But this shows the forecast is verifying.

The problem is the longer it takes to turn.
The further West it is puts landfall in play.
Landfall in Carolinas.
Could we get an out to sea track?
Tracing the East Coast?

Look at the East Coast.
It's obvious hurricanes have done that since...
..the beginning of time.



As I mentioned earlier the tropics are very very very busy. The news just talks on Dorian, all day all the time but there are other possible storms forming that may get named soon; at least Invests that could become Tropical Depressions. Are we busy enough to believe those forecasts of a busy hurricane season? I'll break them down fast so you can move on...



What most likely will become Fernand is at 90%
Hard to say it has competition in the BOC





Looks impressive in ways.

Time will tell.
Mid Atlantic system for now less important.
DOWN BELOW.
I gave more information on these systems.
For now I'm updating where we are at now.
Vs this morning.



11 AM Cone below so you can contrast the two.
Compare and contrast with the 5 PM at the top.
Same basic cone.


Year after year after year...
Hurricanes happen and slide up along the coast.
Some make landfall, some don't.
The coast is literally carved out matching the track.

I heard Bastardi mentioned Helene again.
He brings up Helene often.
Everyone forgets Helene.
Know why? 
It didn't really make landfall.
Came close, kissed the coast.
Sprinted away to Great Britain.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene_(1958)

I've got to stop forgetting about Helene in the future.
It's a great example of one that almost hit the coast...
...but did not.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir-dvorak



That island below Dorian was Grand Bahama.
It still is but it will look like PR and Dominica ...
...after Dorian moves on.
As Dorian was Maria like in wrath.
But Dorian just sitting there...
...and has been for hours.

Note I'm dividing the blog up today into three parts. The first is what I think will be with Dorian and I believe all in all the NHC is going a great job watching this very dangerous storm while currently watching three other Invests one soon to become a designated storm with the next name being Fernand. Secondly I'm going to talk on the tropics as they are extremely active. And the waves by Africa are a problem, especially the second one coming off that wills stay South and most likely threaten the Islands in seven to ten days. Lastly, but most important I went long on the drama on Grand Bahama. Unless Dorian moves further closer to land and does make landfall along the edge of the Florida coast, but more likely the Carolinas.... Grand Bahama destruction will be the lasting memory from Dorian as well making every Floridian nuts and well we pretty much can be nuts anyway so that's a short trip if you know what I mean. Special credit is the way Dorian slams into the Maritimes where Chantal went and again and again and again this is the set up, this it the pattern of the year. East Coast Storms and one will mix it up and head through the Gulf of Mexico making everyone there as crazy as Floridians are on any given day.



1. Dorian should take the turn as it is currently waiting for it's train to come into the station. That train is very noticeable on the water vapor loop and I will update this afternoon after things evolve a bit, but behind that bright gold in the top left hand corner is the front that is forecast to grab Dorian and every model of any value shows that so let's all calm down. Be careful though as even off shore cities along the coast of Florida from Miami to Jax will get nonstop fast moving storms with high winds. And when 40 mph gusts come slamming in moving faster than 25 mph forward speed they will take down random trees, take power out and hit you for a loop if you are caught out in them so ... you need to calm down .... you need to hunker down and make it an inside day and just in case something odd happens and Dorian moves closer and the NHC adjusts thee watches and warnings....stay safe until it's gone, gone, gone.




What happened is shown above.
Dorian didn't really want to.
But it finally stalled.
You can see the Mexican Standoff above.
Trapped between competing High Pressure.
Note the origination of it's tail.
West to East through the Florida Keys.
More on that below.
Remember this image we will come back to it.


2. The tropics are active and those predictions for a very busy season will verify as El Nino is gone, we may be in neutral but I do believe we are moving into La Nina possibly and that often means a hurricane season that goes deep into October with a random November Caribbean Hurricane. So know while the NHC is dealing with Dorian there are 3 invests and one should be named very shortly near Africa. 

I want to talk tropics and there is much to talk about.
And there will be more than Dorian to come.
While obsessing on Dorian...
...we are ignoring the rest of it's family.
The storms of 2019
Yes this is happening.
Remember those predictions of a busy season.
Now you know know....
Actually the NHC is tracking 4 systems currently.
5 there but actively tracking 4.
So cut them some slack here.




Sat imagery shows more.



Invest 91L above should be named soon.
It's currently at 90% red for development in 5 days.
But it's a high latitude wave.
The yellow circle above it important to watch.
It will stay lower, get further West.
Yes Florence was a high altitude wave.
It was not a fish storm so never ignore them ....
...because someone says "FISH"
But the lower ones cruise on it like Dorian did.
Let's look at the names again.



First off I owe everyone an apology.
I have Gabrielle and Humberto names on my  mind.
The next storm name up is Fernand.
Unusual spelling but learn it.


Next two names up.
They will be used very soon.
Down the road we have the next name groups.
Know they will form and we could do a Dorian track again.
Patterns often repeat in the same season.
We've seen this all year.
Dorian off shore the Florida coast...
....waiting for a cold front to grab it.
As several did before it.



Note I could lead with the drama in Grand Bahama.
I thought on leading with that first.
But I want you to not be blindsided.
When the NHC names Fernand.
Or Gabrielle.

So before moving back to Dorian ...
...I'm breaking it down below.


Red will be Fernand.
It is currently Invest 91


The F storm.
Hard to say and type.
Hoping going away on a sea voyage fishing.


Next wave off is more problematic.
As it cruises further South.
Will the Islands have to deal with another threat soon?
Yes, probably.


This odd player at 50% in the 5 Day.
Should follow Dorian over time.
If it forms and it could.
But nothing set in stone re formation or track.


Something in the Gulf of Mexico...
BOC... near the coast.
May move inland with much weather.
Again orange in the five day.
50%


Ironically the area yellow currently worries me more.
Because it's the newest.
The tropics need to settle down after Dorian leaves.
And timing and track on that yellow circle...
...are problematic possibily.

So now that you know it's not over.
And you shouldn't eat the hurricane supplies...
...because Dorian left you high and dry (thank God)
Or you are "so done with hurricanes"
Know Mother Nature is just getting started.

Here we are model wise today.


Easy to stare Dramatic Dorian and ignore everything else.
But I can't my job here is to show you what's in the tropics.

Here we are in a few days.
Huge high...
Dorian off the Carolinas.


WOW look at Dorian alive and well.
Far to the North.
Where Chatal went.
See the pattern?
At some point one makes E Coast landfall.
At some point Miami to Maine could get hit.
Directly not sideswiped as Dorian may do.
And it is possible Dorian makes landfall on US coast.
It's far from over.
Though the threat to FLL and Miami are almost over.
WPB to Daytona watching carefully.
Part of the eye could slide close to the Cape. 
Carolinas........ 
But look at Dorian up there.


And two closed off systems.
Higher wave goes North.
The lower one stuck south underneath.


High builds in as the high ones leaves.
High latitude cinnamon swirls and cyclones big this year.



So Mid September where does that one go?
Could that be the one that does the coastline again?
Very very possibly.

Other things could form we don't see here now.
The Gulf of Mexico will be in play later in the season.
Yes I said that I believe it.
Based on long term trends....
...and my knowledge of weather and hurricane history.

So don't spend the cash or eat the hurricane supplies.
Lock them up tight you may need them then.

3. No way to really convey how horrible Dorian is being to Grand Bahama, an island in the Bahamas and the island close to the Miami - WPB Metro area. Every Miami kid or tourist has taken a cruise or seaplane ride over to Freeport. Why I don't know because it really looks like the Florida Keys or Key Biscayne. The Bahamas are basically Keys as I explain below and Dorian has parked for easily 12 hours over Grand Bahama Island. 

NOW BACK TO THE DRAMA IN THE BAHAMAS

Going back to our radar loop from the top of the page.
I'm into being repetitive often today.
I want you to remember these things.

AMX_loop.gif (600×550)

Close up of the eye of Dorian currently.


I could show more dramatic features.
But radar shows the distinct bands above.
....shows the eye itself sitting over Grand Bahama.
It shows you the long tail slamming Key West.
With storms training over the Lower Keys.
It shows you that this is one connected region.
It shows you that Dorian stalled.
Finally.
Bad for Freeport.

GOES16-AL052019-13-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Crazy isn't it.
Just spinning like a violent colorful top.
In one spot.
Edges of Dorian sending rain to Florida.
Rain, wind and squalls.
You know those squalls out on the Gulfstream.
The Keys keep getting slammed.
Dorian's tail is sideways.
West to East below it ...
...odd presentation.
Messy for Florida Keys.

But let's look close up at DORIAN.
The bulk of it.
The eye.


A point in that eye..........
........has seen blue sky for hours and hours.
Think on it.
That's crazy. 



So I'm saying this twice.
On purpose.
To let it sink in.
I could show more dramatic features.
But radar shows the distinct bands ....
....it shows the eye itself sitting over Grand Bahama.
It shows you the long tail slamming Key West.
With storms training over the Lower Keys.
It shows you that this is one connected region.
It shows you that Dorian stalled.
Finally.
Bad for Freeport.



This is the port where Dorian put down anchor.
And is spinning as a Category 5 Hurricane.


Upwelling will do more to weaken it....
....and shear approaching it.
Than the "land" itself.

Small island.

So going to do something different today.
Dorian stalled.
As I said I thought it might.
In the Bahamas as I said it could.
And it's a day to reflect and wait.
For Dorian to take that turn.
But to give respect and due to reality.
A Category 5 hurricane is grinding a small island.
It's just like the Florida Keys but East.
We say Key they cay Cay..
Most of the early Conchs came from the Bahamas.
They built homes and farms on the Florida Keys.
If you have been to Key West.
It's the same landscape as Grand Bahamas.
Tourism is a trade. Tourism is their trade.


Looks a lot like Key West and Duval Street right?


Now we move to what it looks like today.
Or more so yesterday. 
Because it's been there for over six hours.
Closer to twelve hours.
A category 5 Hurricane slowing to a crawl.
Stalling out over the edge of Grand Bahama.
Grand Bahama is a place in the Bahamas.


What a difference a day makes.
What a difference a 100 miles makes.


The airport at Grand Bahamas is reportedly under five feet of water.
Built on one of it's higher spots.
Not much elevation there.
Google actually shows you were Dorian is......


I'm pretty sure it's gone.
Gone as in grounded down by the storm.
Grounded down as Maria Dominica.
And then moved on to PR.


Go to Google you get an amazing page of info.




You can go to Google and type in Dorian Bahamas.
You will get a news, videos and warnings.
I'll let you do that yourself.

Squalls out on the Gulfstream ...
...moving in over FLORIDA today.
That is the story.

Later we talk on JAX and SAVANNAH.
Charleston and Wilmington.
I promise.

I have to go to a funeral now.
A friend's mother-in-law died.
Going to take a break.
Sorry for any typos.
I am so sorry.
But time is precious and I need to go.

Stay tuned.
I will update after 5 PM today.

Til then we just watch Dorian spin.
And never let our guard down.
And hunker down til it is gone, gone, gone.

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Keep those shutters closed.
Wait Dorian out.
Stay safe........







posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:38 AM

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