Updated 10 PM.. ERIN FORMS........NEW CONE... Similar to My Thoughts From Earlier Today on Twitter ....Dorian. A Look at Facts and Thoughts on Future Track. Will Dorian Miss the Mona Passage Fantasy Cruise? Possibly. And What Part of Florida is Most Likely to See Dorian Up Close and Personal?
Late Breaking News Nite.
Despite the hashtag #HURRICANEDORIAN
Trending on Twitter
It is a 50 MPH Tropical Storm.
And Erin joined the party.
Erin Cone.
And wind probability cities.
Link below.
Wind Probs
Read the fine print learn how to use them properly.
Cone for Dorian.
Change in forecast is warnings up for British Virgin Islands.
I want to draw your attention to this site.
From the NHC
Use it.
It is interactive you can click on it anywhere.
Zoom in and it has information.
The long range part is iffy still in my opinion.
Subject to changes.
After it passes over the mountains of PR
Unless it manages to stay on the east side of PR
And spend less time over mtns.
Just a reality I need to put out there.
Lots of options.
First things first.
Prayers that PR fairs not too bad.
And we can work on the end game later.
Click anywhere on it.
Just know beyond 2 to 3 days it is NOT locked in.
Not yet anyway.
And... so much for Hispaniola
Track for both Erin and Dorian from NRL site.
Best map anywhere.
Erin pulls North eventually.
Dorian does Puerto Rico.
VI in it possibly.
Then next step is Bahamas and Florida.
Carolinas down the road?
Breaking news still breaking.
Will follow up but this is true.
Nice loop.
Here’s the latest satellite loop for TS #Dorian. Thunderstorms are building this evening. pic.twitter.com/QXfp11JVeX— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) August 28, 2019
And despite whatever the cone shows tonight.
This is the bottom line.
The Southern end of Dorian is empty.
Devoid of real weather.
What will it look like.........
....tomorrow by Noon?
From say 5:30 on a clock to 7 PM.
It's lacking.
But otherwise ... beautiful structure.
If it grows..... grows up.
Gets bigger.
Survives the tangle with islands with mtns.
Could be a real problem later.
But it has to get to later.
Til then speculation... forecasts.
And forecasts can be changed.
So hang tight until tomorrow.
Sweet Tropical Dreams.
Bobbistorm
8 PM
First look at the image above.
Warnings up now as far East as US Virgin Islands.
Updated track cone below.
I personally think if the trend to bend left happens.
It may be pulled a drop further to the South.
I've even wondered Dorian could track over the Lake.But more time to talk on that later.
If the track doesn't bend as sharp.
Cape up to Jax needs to watch.
Please read and remember long term track...
...depends on the cold front.
Short term Dorian is feeling the pull N faster.
Senses the warm, moist conditions.
Look at the image at the top.
Connect the dots ...
.. but eventually it bends left.
Keep reading.
Thanks ...
ps... A warning but they never had a watch.
As pointed out online by people.
Remember again.
Low Pressure likes to go to Low Pressure.
Back in Raleigh.
Thanks for your patience during my vacation.
I've had this thought since about 1 PM.
It's been bugging me.
But easier to write at home on my computer for me.
And writing is an organic process that helps me think.
So thanks for helping me by reading my blog.
Hope that made sense.
My thought here is that Dorian is going to miss the Mona Passage.
It sounded romantic and saved PR from a closer call.
And soon we will see how the NHC adjusts their cone.
But watching the water vapor loop and other loops.
And after recon finding the center further North.
I really think it will turn faster, sharper closer to PR.
East ... West... not sure.
And once up the road possibly turn into Florida sharper.
A bit lower than models show.
The trend has been a bit to the South on each run.
And it's more logical inline with history.
And the modeling of the front coming down.
And TD6 being there.
Please read through or look at the pictures.
I'll add a song later.
This is my thought process.
It's thinking out loud in print.
Could be right.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Time will tell.
It's a difficult forecast due to the size of Dorian.
Current size doesn't indicate future size.
Dorian Tuesday afternoon discussion now that I am back in Raleigh and able to really study Dorian properly I want to bring up certain questions that actually will be answered sooner rather than later.
To review this remember that Dorian never intensified the way the earlier discussions forecast and that happens as tropical cyclones are fluid systems not living in a vacuum and until recon goes in and we get good information from dropsondes and run that information into the next few model runs that are often more reliable than taking a stab in the dark at a system's earliest inception.
This discussion above is from days ago.
The current coordinates are shown below.
So let's look at the closest location from then to now.
Intensity forecasting truly is the Holy Grail.
But it's close in there and only 50 MPH.
That's a big difference from 75 to 85 MPH.
So let's deal with now not then.
At 11 the discussion showed the following.
Until it passes Hispaniola and PR all bets are off.
Basically that is what they are saying.
They have it flirting with Hurricane status.
Slowly climbing in intensity ..
Now let's look at the cone.
The new cone that is similar to the old cone.
They seem unsure in discussion what is going on exactly.
And that's not normal as watching and reviewing is the process.
Again a Cat 3 WNW in the MDR is easier than...
...a small almost pissant little cyclone.
A small cyclone that looks better than it might be inside.
And one that recon found was further North.
Possibly a center reform or ... whatever.
Discussion from earlier today from NHC.
They are nudging the track further NE.
That makes the Mona Passage cruise difficult.
Doable possibly but not as likely.
Again it's a small storm.
So size matters here.
It's also a fairly weak storm.
In a difficult environment.
That's good for Puerto Rico.
The close up for the current wind field forecast.
Long term track below but let's stick with the short term.
Short term leads to the long term.
Any changes to short term impact long term.
Add in here the wind probabilities.
They have always been a good indication of concern.
Granted there is no location for "the Mona Passage"
Note Ponce and Aguadilla.
PR is not Hispaniola
But it has mountains.
Higher mountains than St. Lucia.
And apparently those mountains hurt Dorian.
As per NHC discussion.
PR below.
Highest mountains.
Compare that to the Pitons on St Lucia.
Don't they look pretty.
They are between 2,438 ft and 2,618.9 feet high.
Lower than what Dorian may find on PR
And DR has higher mountains.
Mona Passage obviously has no mountains ...
...well above the water anyway.
Oh Snap what was that?
Dorian and TD6 up above.
Getting crowded in the Atlantic these days.
Let's look at the newest models.
Dorian is forecast to pull more to the North.... NW officially.
Moves slower in the Caribbean.
The official cone that will soon be old has it speed up in Bahamas.
Bends more to the left (WNW) and makes landfall in Florida.
But where really?
We are days away and though the models are good.
They move about by degrees on every run sometimes.
So let's look at those models.....
A few begin to break more to the North towards SC.
Others begin to bend sharper to the left WNW
What are the factors here?
How strong is the front?
The High pressure.
At first TD 6 has a pull on Dorian.
Lows like to go to Lows.
So from the main page at the NHC.
We have Dorian looking healthy.
Nice round shape.
Despite shear is nice and round.
Still close to South America but moving away.
That tail that wants to form on her back side.
And we have TD6 or the misplaced convection it carries.
Do I need to show you a loop?
There's the steering currents up the road.
There's TD6 moving North.
Rain over Florida...what else is new.
Note the dry air above Dorian on the NW side.
Is a thin dark line.
Then there's moisture available.
Remember Dorian is SMALL.
Small now today anyway
It's not an easy road for Dorian to get to this strength.
Models for intensity below.
Often badly done.
Why?
Green is go for intensification.
Red is no go for intensification.
Dorian is between a rock and a hard spot.
Currently has a chance to intensify.
Then hits shear where the Mona Passage is....
....then it's like jumping hurdles.
So far Dorian has been a long distance hurdle jumper.
And up near South Florida over warm waters.
Less shear.
Again this shear map changes often in real time.
That is why it is so hard for the NHC to be perfect.
Everything is in motion all the time... fluidly.
As one thing changes something else changes.
Butterfly wings chaos theory ya know...
There's the whole show in motion.
Dorian really looks good here.
But inside how good is it?
We will know soon.
I say it pulls sharper to the right.
And PR is more under the gun than DR.
And the romantic sounding Mona Passage track...
...may as I have said been wishcasting.
No one wants to see PR get a storm.
Any kind of storm.
They have a fragile infrastructure still being rebuilt.
Great loop please use it.
First image above.
Before.
Broken off from it's moisture feed.
Close to South America.
Land Interaction.
Below is After.
Now.
Establishing a lifeline to it's SE.
TD6 looking stronger and more moisture to it's North.
You see all the orange North of Dorian.
All Dorian has to do it get to that moist air.
And PR and DR are in the way.
Could it lift even sharper sooner rather than later.
If it misses the mountains of PR.
We could end up with a stronger storm in Bahamas.
NO ONE has really said it could go East of PR.
Maybe I'm wishcasting because PR doesn't need it.
But it is possible it turns sharper.
Avoids disruption further West on Hispaniola.
You do draw the dots.
I don't see it getting that far to the DR.
Again this was just recently posted while I was writing.
This is Mike talking about what I said online earlier.
On Twitter where I talk in real time.
They found the "center" far from where they expected it.
Did it transfer energy?
New center?
Did the old center jump or move faster?
Doesn't really matter.
What matters is I really think the Mona Passage Cruise is off.
I could be wrong.
I'd like to be wrong.
But I've laid out for you .....
...why I think this is what will happen.
I'll be updating later.
There are many questions left beyond this...
Florida?
I think that Dorian may pull right faster and then turn sharper left and come in a bit further South than the current models show. Anywhere from Ft. Pierce to just North of WPB would seem logical and then how far West does it go? Does it cross the Lake or does it cross Lake Country? Does it make it to Tampa and into the Gulf of Mexico or what?
Stay tuned.
Special thanks to Jim Williams and Cranky for keeping me informed and entertained while driving back through the back roads of South Carolina where service comes and goes faster than new model runs. Good to be home, though the trip was fun, on my computer and evaluating things in real time as I normally do.
And now I'm going to go listen to the Facebook Live Broadcast from Mike that I missed while in limbo in tobacco fields with no TMobile service ;)
Be back soon.
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 1:14 PM
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