11 PM UPDATE. Dorian Strengthening Takes Aim Islands/Florida. Forecast to be Hurricane Models Bring it into Bahamas Towards Florida. But Greater Antilles? So Many Questions...... Hurricane History. Flora, Harvey, Debby, Jeanne, Dorian

Quickie update getting TD 6 outta the way.

Then on to Dorian center stage.

Same Chantal shell game.

Forms far to the North.

Cities that may be impacted.

I mentioned early on this could hit far to the N.

Now let's move on to Dorian.

More of Florida covered in the cone.

Compare and contrast with previous cone.

Writing here at 11 PM.

Note discussion.

Recon found Tropical Storm force winds.

But not was strong as we thought.

This sentence is super important.

"model guidance is subject to considerable uncertainty,

particularly from days 3 to 5"

Days 3 to 5 shown below.

I want to point out Dorian is very close to South America.

Note the pretty aqua to it's SE....

It's become cut off from the juicy ITCZ

If anything it's pulling up moisture from the Amazon.

We are obsessing on Florida.

But it's just North of Trinidad.

Keep that in mind.

Look at the spread in these models.

There's Spaghetti slipping out all over the floor.

Yes a consensus of models agree.

But watch the trend.

One crosses over Cuba. 

One breaks for the Carolinas.

Aiming at the beach where I type this tonight.

Myrtle Beach, more on that later.

And most of them CROSS Florida.

I'd like to see that change.

And, it might but too many intangibles.

We are getting recon tonight.

We will have good visible imagery in the morning.

Often I go to Broadway on the Beach to watch sunset.

There are lagoons, lots of pretty colors.

Colored lights shimmering in the water.

But I was too tired.

And wanted to sit and stare at the ocean.

So spent about an hour walking on the beach.

Watching the shades of darkness slowly take over the light.

So beautiful.

Myrtle Beach always delivers.

We had some business down in Savannah....

... and had to do something on the way back.

The way back got late and we ate at an Israeli Kosher place.

Great burgers and Shwarma.

And decided to use that cheap app to get a nice room.

Rather than drive back to Raleigh in the dark.

I had a really bad headache. 

It's gone.

Been a hectic day with everyone wanting to know.

What they can't be told because no one knows.

As Mike says "things change" and that's true.

Even the NHC says beyond the 3 day they are uncertain.

So this is the story. While walking on the beach that still has signs of erosion from Florence and there are little eddys and places where the water gathers and I noticed a little fish about 4 inches long that came crashing in with a wave too far onto land and when I realized what I saw I felt bad, but it just shimmered there a bit in about an inch of water and suddenly the next wave came in and it half swam and half slid back out into the ocean. And, I thought of Dorian.... flaring up, waning ... wondering if it is going to die out over Hispaniola or Cuba or get torn apart a bit, get stuck under high pressure...what will be? Oh the drama... goes on and on with an age old script that keeps recurring when we have a tropical system down there and a cone that takes it all the way WNW to NW up towards Florida. 

I'll update first thing in the morning AFTER watching the sunrise. Living in Raleigh I really miss the ocean and the sunrise and air moving the way it does down by the coast. So going to soak it in while here before going back there tomorrow. Then I'll be home all week online ready to deal with whatever Dorian throws us.  Yes I know Labor Day is coming. 

Everyone chill a bit and wait and see what will be tomorrow. And as for Hurricane Prep.. if Dorian didn't get you to get your plan together nothing will.

Much love to all of you....... 

Sweet Tropical Dreams ... BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps........  if you didn't read the blog earlier please keep reading. Thanks for your patience during this little mini getaway before hunkering down for the hurricane season.

8 PM above.

Basically extrapolated cone.

NHC continues tracking Dorian.

Waiting on next package.

Putting them all here for you to compare.

Updating as I go...

#DORIAN's within radar range. Looks like a mess. IR makes things look more dramatic at times. Loop archive by @BMcNoldy https://t.co/XbglY2gZtN pic.twitter.com/vXL72ScF26

— Delé Balogun ⛈️ (@hurricanejourn) August 27, 2019

11 AM

Yes, I know Miami is just outside the tip of the cone.

I put the center line on for you to focus.

You all want to know about timing.

Please learn to use this graphic.

The NHC puts it out for you to use.

Use it.

Plan accordingly.

Again the 5 day part is more iffy ...

...than the next two days.

Details are important.

Remember this image for discussion below.

Some thoughts for important people in our field.

Worth nothing @icyclone doesn't hate it.

It's slowly gaining respect.

Dorian has good bones and a solid shape.

With convection or without much it's maintained that.

I agree  with him obviously.

Mark is watching.

I agree with him... possibly towards Florida.

Very interesting days ahead.

I want to make two points here.

1. When I say Florida note that if this forecast would verify it could just as easily Floyd like slip by Miami just offshore and if it did make landfall in Florida aim at that area that is rarely hit North of West Palm Beach or clip WPB or miss WPB and slide up along the coast the way Matthew did recently. Each storm is different, tracks can trace previous storms and then suddenly slip away somewhere else giving everyone along the coast a big scare. If high pressure builds in anywhere it veers more West again and we don't want to go there right now though that's what Jeanne did as well as another hurricane we don't want to name. Fronts in late August are often iffy and can threaten than fall apart and leave a weakness for a system to aim for on it's trip across the globe. 

2. Note again that this storm could become a small hurricane that is well stacked and moves faster and slides through the Mona Passage as a small core moving rapidly on it's path and not have that much land impact though it could cause some flooding and problems for both PR and DR but this is not forecast to be a Major Hurricane at that point so as a small hurricane it wouldn't be that bad. That bad is relative but it would be bad for those up the way in the Bahamas and possibly Florida if Dorian did that. Could happen, it's a possibility we may need to deal with down the road.

Again from 11 AM discussion.

Dorian is forecast to hit hurricane strength.

Note the words "near Hispaniola"

And that says a lot.

Please learn to read discussion.

It says way more than a picture can show you.

Especially as the Cone can wiggle a bit.

The discussion teaches you WHY that happens.

You learn what to watch for...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT5+shtml/261500.shtml?

Is Dorian trying to tell us something?

IF so it may be she is small but...

...she wants to be a hurricane.

Last but not least the models.

After scaring everyone in South Florida...

Note some models take it into the GOM...

... more take it up along the East Coast.

Considering how this year has gone....

....the East Coast solution is more probable.

Too soon to rule anything out.

I'll update later today.

Yes I know Labor Day Weekend.

A D storm....

Many D storms come to mind.

I'll update later tonight back in Raleigh.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

I do real live updates there.

Please follow Mike's Facebook Page.

The link is on www.spaghettimodels.com

This is when we tend to go from silly to serious.

Yes the answer is blowing in the wind.

Please excuse typos on a tight schedule today.

'Dorian Center Stage.

Models take her close to and over Florida.

Could that happen?

Maybe.

Have you shopped for hurricane supplies yet?

If not why not?

N

Close up above.

From far away below.

Pointing out how low Dorian is still.

Her signature is growing in size.

A kind of outflow around her...

But her core is still pretty low.

Cruising West at 14 MPH stubbornly.

That's South America in the bottom left.

Note large globe like view below.

I show that because the NHC cone ...

...shows it knocking on Florida's door.

Note they pull it faster to the North....

...on the 4th and 5th day.

Models below show a variety of possibilities.

There are just so many questions here regarding Dorian.

1. How strong does Dorian get between now and the third day?

2. How large in size does Dorian get at that point and yes size matters?

3. How does interaction with Hispaniola directly impact Dorian?

4. Does Dorian feel the polar pull and veer North to find a way out of the Caribbean?

5. Does it begin to fall apart from shear, nearness to an Upper Level Low and slide West?

 1. A stronger Dorian could easily follow those model tracks. But NHC has it 75 MPH tops.
That's really not that strong especially if it remains small in size.

2. Size matters really when it comes to the tropics. Larger hurricanes feel the call of the North faster than a small storm and a small storm can cut and turn faster than a Big Mac Hurricane. Currently Dorian is a small chicken nugget not a Big Mac. You get the idea. Also smaller storms are known to spin up faster and a bigger storm takes more time. Size matters.

3. The obvious here a small hurricane or tropical storm taking on Hispaniola doesn't do much for the future of that storm though many a storm has regrouped in the warm waters of the Bahamas and come back to throw it in South Florida's face that Haiti didn't kill me...

Note the 3,000 people dying is a real statistic.

People in small villages on hillsides are no match for flash floods.

Pointing out a classic hurricane that did that also.

Again note the extreme death toll.

Even a strong tropical depression there kills people.

Dorian is NOT Flora.

But showing you how they can make that sharp turn.

Again tho Florida was a STRONG CAT 4 there.

Major Hurricanes want to go towards the Poles.

Weaker storms continue West and wait til later sometimes.

Some crash into Central America.

Others tangle with Upper Level Lows.

The ULL denies in then they get to a place....

...where the ULL feeds it and it thrives.

Tropical Systems can be tricky.

They do whatever they need to do to survive.

The track for Harvey is below.

Again Dorian is NOT Harvey.

It's a lesson in how storms move.

Harvey formed close to where Dorian did.

It went into the Caribbean.

It fell apart though it was there to track and see.

People went crazy arguing over it's remnants.

And then like the infamous cat... it came back.

And caught a ride North into the Houston area.

Despite all the drama.

The models called that dramatic come back.

4. What will Dorian do? Let's go back to our questions. Can it pull North and surprise us? The models show various ways it can get up into the Bahamas and the water over the Bahamas is warm and IF and WHEN it gets there if the conditions are right it could impact or come close to impacting South Florida. Or up the coast a bit further and that's been a pattern this year. Invest 98L lingered and rained and wandered and didn't develop but that area as been top for Tropical Tourism all year so the idea of any storm getting up into that area should be a concern especially a storm that really shouldn't have developed as all the waves before it nor the waves after it developed and that says a lot.

5. There are factors such as shear, the nearness of the Upper Level Low and the mountainous islands that could impact Dorian down the line. Much also depends on how well developed internally Dorian is at that point. A well stacked hurricane survives those negative conditions better than a poorly stacked system such as Debby that was forecast to slam into South Florida and basically tilted over and died before impacting the Greater Antilles.

Dorian.

Track.

Similar.

Then it simply fell over.........

....fell apart.

Will Dorian do that or feel the pull North?

Quick look at Water Vapor 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=09&length=24

These are the steering factors.

1. Note the dip in the yellow flow.

There's an Upper Level Low there.

Note Invest 98L... area of weak break in the High.

If it doesn't strengthen and it is currently...

...it could pull further West towards the ULL.

But then the front is still dangling.

And dangling fronts are always a problem.

Could it pull up into the weakness left behind by 98L?

Therein is the big issue.

And if Dorian is small it could come close to ...

...but miss the high mountains?

It could go South of Haiti and pull North later.

Many do that between Cuba and Haiti.

And others turn before...

So many options.

Check back later please.

More to tell.

I have a 10 AM appointment somewhere.

Be back later.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Will update before Noonish.

Will have a song for ya later.