Dorian and the Future of (n

Let's start with the loop above.

So that when reading this blog you have the right perspective.

Perspective is everything.

Miami friends asking me on Dorian.

Texas friends wondering.

People in PR are concerned.

You'll note first that it's a small system.

It has a good core at various levels.

But it's small and lacks convection.

It's in a sea of dry air it has so far ignored.

Shear is there and it's a factor...

..as much as the steering current of the High.

So check this out please.

Note Highs and Lows.

Lows to the South.

Highs to the North.

Remember we had an early cold front.

Stalled somewhere about where they usually stall.

But it's been a nice reminder Fall is coming still.

Below we have the 5 AM Cone.

Again it was shifted back to the South a bit.

I said they might do that last night.

Please read the previous bigger blog.

Thanks!

Note it's a rather good discussion.

Read it when you have a chance.

The salient part is below.

There's the logic you need to think upon.

1. Remember Dorian is a small storm.

2. Models do not handle small storms well.

3. You can't treat a small storm as you do a large one.

4. A bigger Dorian would pull more to the North.

(bigger as in size and stronger)

5. A small Dorian may continue West longer.

Basic Models...

Extended model madness below.

Everyone wants to know where it goes.

I will update this blog later today.

I'll go longer into detail.

Today is a day to see what Dorian can do.

Give it a day while it's far away.

To watch, study and evaluate.

Personally letting my nails dry.

Easy to type when you do that.

Gotta leave soon.

So back to 98L

Remember in the Wizard of Oz...

The wicked witch messed up the Scarecrow bad?

Dorothy helped put him back together.

That happened with 98L

There are pieces of him everywhere.

Cranky explained this last night.

He's good to follow online.

There are lots of swirls to choose from.

One thing here to remember is an Invest is NOT a Tropical Depression nor is it a Tropical Storm. It is an area of convection with some low pressure or where low pressure may form in a general zone that is being watched to INVESTIGATE whether a named system will form. Everyone takes it as if there is already something there and that is wrong. And often in areas trying to form there are multiple possible centers and energy flows back and forth, some flare up, some fade away and sometimes one takes over. When that happens and convection wraps and a center closes off then and only then will be have a real known entity. It's not that it "fell apart" it never was and it may be but not where you expected it to be but in the end part of the NHC ZONE where FORMATION could occur. So you see each of these swirls is within that zone cone. Yes I wrote all that. At 8 AM this zone cone may change or it may not. It's not important really as today is the day to watch this area and see what comes of it. It will most likely form into something "more better" that's a Southern saying but you get the idea. Watch off the E Coast of Florida for it to come together if it does come together.

As for the GOM Blob Aka Invest 90L it did not come together but it is delivering much rain... it is what it is.

Gotta go. I'll update later today. Today is a day to figure out what really is going on and what might be down the tropical road. Please read the previous blog post from late last night as it's still very relevant.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... no that does mean I think it's going to Texas it means I love Willie Nelson and got places to go today.

Thanks for your patience...