Late Nite Update on Invest 98L in Bahamas Moving Towards Florida ... Modeling Shows an East Coat Storm Named Dorian Down the Road. But It's Early ...Things Change So Stay Tuned and Check Back Often.
Invest 98L from NRL site.
Note convection in Gulf of Mexico.
Site above shows you where 98L is...
More the center vs the moisture to it's right.
See the orange line.
Note the shear... Green is good.
Yellow is go slow.... higher shear.
Red is No.
This explains why it is forecast to develop later.
Up the Florida coast where the green lines are.
Where other systems have also done better.
The yellow area that says 20 inhibits strengthening.
Shear changes rapidly so this is not carved in stone.
It's just a good picture of the set up tonight.
Below shows the congested areas of convection.
There is an odd flow between the two areas.
NOT regular Earthnull but at a different level.
Above is the usual Earthnull ...
..shows some curvature of lines...
But you can play with Earthnull.
Great site to play with....
Below you can see another level.
Easy to see Invest 98L between Cuba, Bahamas and Florida.
But note the other large circle near the Yucatan Passage.
Now look at a loop.
This is a complicated mess.
There is a large GOM Gyre there...
Spinning in one large messy blob.
Not using fancy scientific words here.
It's late. I've had a long day.
Watching the Carolina Panthers play NE...
...you get the picture.
Note that moisture from the blob ....
...flies off the blob.
It feeds into and fuels 98L a bit.
Moisture from 98L creeps West.
Remember it's NOT developed yet.
So undeveloped systems slide West.
On the water vapor loop...
...the Upper Level Low to the NW of 98L
Steals the show.
Grabs your attention.
Like wheels cranking
Round and round.
Speaking of round.
Let's look at the models.
"let's wait until the next model run" they said.
So the windmill models are shown below.
Round and round and round it goes.
Where it stops no one knows.
Yeah, that happened.
Understand some models develop 98L off the East Coast of Florida after it slides it's way part on and part offshore getting into the area where 97L began to pull together off of Jacksonville and other models pull it West through the Straits of Florida, across the Everglades forming a small center near SW Florida moving up the West Coast and then crossing back over. Think A Donna like track but it's an Invest not a Hurricane thankfully. I'm pretty sure tomorrow these tracks should straighten out and show us more clarity. Yeah, I said that ;)
The other image below.
And models don't develop the blob in the GOM
But models are busy dancing with 98L
Reminds me of an old 80s song.
Will update in the morning...
...obviously.
Hopefully next model runs make more sense.
And as the sun rises over 98L the picture is clearer.
And either way Florida is in for tropical rain.
Where an when 98L gets a name is down the road.
Most likely.
Odd things have happened this year so far...
Stay tuned..
A close up of 98L as it approaches Florida.
Invest 98L looking pretty formidable.
Check out how it looks on the MIMIC Loop.
Between models and it's presentation...
...NHC put up the Invest sooner rather than later.
Still currently at 30% but that should change soon.
Everyone's talking about it.
Models do many different things with it.
They are merely suggestions.
Often off on timing and strength.
But better to have them than not to have them.
Link to the Euro model...again it updates frequently. It's on the top left of the page at Spaghetti Models if that's easier for you and you aren't a pro at running models. Check it often as it changes often.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm
The GFS model is below.
Feel free to check the GFS often as it changes often and though the EURO is often right the GFS usually shows us something to take into consideration. You can also check it out at windy.com and enjoy their graphics.
My bottom line for the Gulf of Mexico is that it is worth watching to see if something forms there. There's moisture and it's been consistent and sometimes things form very close in to land as we know so keep watching.
As for Chantal our named system now a Tropical Depression it is out there in the middle of the Atlantic doing it's name and everything possible to keep the name around for another use down the road. Pretty name.
I'll update later...for now know the NHC has Invest 98L in the Bahamas and looking as if it will get the name Dorian. Keep watching, it's not over til it's over and we will soon see what it's really got going for it.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Ps... check back later for updates as more information comes in...
Labels: 98L, dorian, eastcoast, Florida, GOM, models, music, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:43 PM
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