95L Forecast by Models to be Humberto. Oh and Humberto Has a Fan Named Imelda Following Him.. Like a Groupie.. East Coast Repeat of Dorian or GOM? What Begins In Cuba Doesn't Stay in Cuba Down the Road.

3:30 PM

Note we are at 80% in 5 days for development.

Before reading further...

.. putting this excellent tweet here.

Interesting indeed.

Note the bottom of the map has more tracks.

As I said earlier... it's possible Imelda forms to the S

South of Humberto that should form...

(lots of ifs...)

and Imelda wants to follow Humberto.

Currently we just have Invest 95L

Well, this outta be very interesting.
Stay tuned.. pic.twitter.com/qm2r0CaKcf

— Anthony Siciliano (@AMSweather) September 12, 2019

Check out the difference in the initial placement of the tropical system we're watching on models. If you're not putting the right numbers into your math problem to begin with, you're probably not going to have the right answer. Hurricane Hunters fly @ 4. pic.twitter.com/Um0Xxqgfxk

— WRAL Kat Campbell (@katcampbellwx) September 12, 2019

Why are there so many model differences?

A rather new good met in Raleigh tweeted this..

Note they started at different points.

You can't come to a fork in the road....

...if you are on a different road.

Hard job for NHC.

Until a center pops out.

and models are run from that point.

Models will continue being messy.

But the general concern remains.

Take away from above is...

1... Recon going in..

2... Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories could begin.

You see the convection above.

Diffuse over a large area.

More concentrated last night.

Shear is light in that general area.

See where it says -10

in blue NE of Cuba.

Where NHC X is...

However there's disturbance from nearby ULL

That ULL is swirling...

..drawing convection apart...

..add in small mini ULL to it's NE

And note below...

Earthnull shows a kind of center.

A bit of convection there but not wrapped around it.

Models are useless as they differ in timing, intensity and track.

It's possible models are picking up on different centers.

Until you have a closed center...

...you just don't really know for sure.

If you live in South Florida rain may be in your forecast.

It can slip up the coast.

More on that later.

Stay tuned.

Note the newest NOAA Loops...

Places a Low down near/over Florida.

Expect Potential Tropical Cyclone Alerts...

...to begin from NHC soon.

Very possible... not there yet.

But probable.

Recon goes in later today.

Keep reading...

Before the sun rose...

...after the sun rose on Invest 95L

See the question is which center is the center.

Developing systems can have many centers.

Where Humberto forms...

...impacts the track.

Changes everything.

On the image above you can see blow ups ...

Explosively trying to develop.

Nice large pocket.

Now where does it form?

That point directs the models.

Latest models at 9:30 AM

Compare and contrast with older ones.

Models look scary...but...

From far away nothing there yet...

So what's the hysteria about?

Oh did I say hysteria?

While you slept the models kept running.

You have to zoom all the way in.......

See it's lifted off the coast of Cuba from yesterday..

NHC has 95L at 80% RED in the 5 day.

High marks for a student they didn't think much on...

...on the first day of school.

70% in the 2 Day.

So this could get named sooner rather than later.

And it's got a friend.

Remember that.

94L is gone.

BUT.......it's old track is still in play.

Putting in motion for you...

You can check back and watch it in real time.

The big question here this morning is...

...what happened to the strong ridge?

Not that I'd mind seeing the hot temps go away.

But what pushes them away could be a pain.

I may be drinking PSL Frappes...

...but it's still feeling like deep Summer in the Carolinas.

So doing models first today.

Later this afternoon we can compare.

Contrast.

And look at the various satellites

See what the future Humberto did today.

Note some GFS runs take it into the GOM.

Nothing is off the table yet with this one.

Though this morning everyone's watching the E Coast.

Link to the GFS and warning this run does a lot of strange acrobatics in the Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Starts down by Florida on Monday.

Then moves up the Florida Coast.

Shuffle Dance of 2019

Stays politely out at sea.

Oh Lows appear everywhere ..

..in Mid Atlantic.

Why I don't know.

It's the GFS

Thursday GFS cruises Humberto past NE...

...up to the Canadian Maritimes area.

You have to loop it yourself.

To see the Atlantic Acrobatics it's got going on also.

So let's move on to the EURO that stirred everyone up this morning upon waking up and finding out it brings Humberto together fast enough for 3 different recon missions to be flown today and us to see the Dorian 2 Track but for 95L not long term 94L and luckily those who still have their hurricane supplies (just in case) still have their hurricane supplies. The EURO has many members of it's ensemble (talking weather not politics) and many want to ride Humberto up the coast giving him a tour of the Mid Atlantic, NJ, NY and of course New England on it's Grand American Tour of 2019. Oh and if you believe this run of King Euro know it has a fan that follows him everywhere. No one in tropical meteorology needed a shower to wake up this morning and the coffee is going cold. Yes, it was one run and it flipped greatly from the previous one so we do what we always do and don't eat the hurricane supplies and wait for the next run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Remember it ends with this image.

Humberto begins as expected off SFL

Not so much to look at...

...then does a Florida Beach tour like Dorian.

Bit stronger here waving to Charleston again...

...oh wait what's that down there?

Excuse me? OBX again?

What's down by Cuba?

But what begins down by Cuba...

...doesn't stay down by Cuba.

What starts down there after sneaking in...

...to the Caribbean.

Could be Imelda

Yeah that song "let's do it again...."

Oh and now Imelda has friends.

After Humberto leaves.

So you ask can this really happen?

Yes and it has happened over and over again.

Try 1955 though 1954 had the same game plan too.

Following 1954.

I'll say that again.

Often history repeats.

Frances and Jeanne.

3 weeks apart less than 2 miles apart.

It's what we call repetitive pattern.

Will this happen?

Have to wait and see.

Next model run and.......

..more important watch satellite loops.

Get plane info...

...had to ask @DadaBuh.

Master of songs.

Of course this is the song I thought on...

One of my favorite country songs ...

...from a while back.

Actually used it for a ring tone.

Because we gonna be watching aircraft take off..

...if the next model run is the same as this one.

But usually they flip flop ... ...  

Oh and the kicker here is the Canadian.

I know ..you knew that.

Listen I said early on this season....

...it was a coastal cruiser season.

Donna repeat over and over now it seems.

The pattern called for it... I'm not a seer.

I just call em like I see em.

I'll update later today.

After the afternoon model runs.

We can compare and contrast.

And as always in September prepare...

... because it's peak of the Hurricane Season.

Going to take a long shower.

Have more better coffee...

...and listen to Mike at 9:19 AM

Cause want to here my good old boy..

...tell me what he thought when he saw models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

;)

Til then going to dance to Havana oooh na na 

Because I love that song ;)

Note what begins in Cuba...

... won't stay in Cuba.

But does it go up the East Coast?

Or get into the Gulf of Mexico?

Dangerous either way if that happens.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Late Nite Update on Invest 98L in Bahamas Moving Towards Florida ... Modeling Shows an East Coat Storm Named Dorian Down the Road. But It's Early ...Things Change So Stay Tuned and Check Back Often.

Invest 98L from NRL site.

Note convection in Gulf of Mexico.

Site above shows you where 98L is... 

More the center vs the moisture to it's right.

See the orange line.

Note the shear... Green is good.

Yellow is go slow.... higher shear.

Red is No.

This explains why it is forecast to develop later.

Up the Florida coast where the green lines are.

Where other systems have also done better.

The yellow area that says 20 inhibits strengthening.

Shear changes rapidly so this is not carved in stone.

It's just a good picture of the set up tonight.

Below shows the congested areas of convection.

There is an odd flow between the two areas.

NOT regular Earthnull but at a different level.

Above is the usual Earthnull ...

..shows some curvature of lines...

But you can play with Earthnull.

Great site to play with.... 

Below you can see another level.

Easy to see Invest 98L between Cuba, Bahamas and Florida.

But note the other large circle near the Yucatan Passage.

Now look at a loop.

This is a complicated mess.

There is a large GOM Gyre there... 

Spinning in one large messy blob.

Not using fancy scientific words here.

It's late. I've had a long day.

Watching the Carolina Panthers play NE...

...you get the picture.

Note that moisture from the blob ....

...flies off the blob.

It feeds into and fuels 98L a bit.

Moisture from 98L creeps West.

Remember it's NOT developed yet.

So undeveloped systems slide West.

On the water vapor loop...

...the Upper Level Low to the NW of 98L

Steals the show.

Grabs your attention.

Like wheels cranking

Round and round.

Speaking of round.

Let's look at the models.

"let's wait until the next model run" they said.

So the windmill models are shown below.

Round and round and round it goes.

Where it stops no one knows.

Yeah, that happened.

Understand some models develop 98L off the East Coast of Florida after it slides it's way part on and part offshore getting into the area where 97L began to pull together off of Jacksonville and other models pull it West through the Straits of Florida, across the Everglades forming a small center near SW Florida moving up the West Coast and then crossing back over. Think A Donna like track but it's an Invest not a Hurricane thankfully.  I'm pretty sure tomorrow these tracks should straighten out and show us more clarity. Yeah, I said that ;)

The other image below.

And models don't develop the blob in the GOM

But models are busy dancing with 98L

Reminds me of an old 80s song.

Will update in the morning...

...obviously.

Hopefully next model runs make more sense.

And as the sun rises over 98L the picture is clearer.

And either way Florida is in for tropical rain.

Where an when 98L gets a name is down the road.

Most likely.

Odd things have happened this year so far... 

Stay tuned..

A close up of 98L as it approaches Florida.

Invest 98L looking pretty formidable.

Check out how it looks on the MIMIC Loop.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

Between models and it's presentation...

...NHC put up the Invest sooner rather than later.

Still currently at 30% but that should change soon.

Everyone's talking about it.

Models do many different things with it.

They are merely suggestions.

Often off on timing and strength.

But better to have them than not to have them.

Link to the Euro model...again it updates frequently. It's on the top left of the page at Spaghetti Models if that's easier for you and you aren't a pro at running models. Check it often as it changes often.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

The GFS model is below.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Feel free to check the GFS often as it changes often and though the EURO is often right the GFS usually shows us something to take into consideration. You can also check it out at windy.com and enjoy their graphics.

My bottom line for the Gulf of Mexico is that it is worth watching to see if something forms there. There's moisture and it's been consistent and sometimes things form very close in to land as we know so keep watching.

As for Chantal our named system now a Tropical Depression it is out there in the middle of the Atlantic doing it's name and everything possible to keep the name around for another use down the road. Pretty name. 

I'll update later...for now know the NHC has Invest 98L in the Bahamas and looking as if it will get the name Dorian. Keep watching, it's not over til it's over and we will soon see what it's really got going for it.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... check back later for updates as more information comes in...

Another Winter Storm in the Deep South in Hurricane Country.

Keeping this short today.

I just want to explain a few things.

Things to come so to speak.

For days mets have been waiting...

...for this system to show up.

Modeling showed dramatic images.

A deep slice of Arctic cold air...

slicing down into the middle of the country.

There has been much salivating going on...

..waiting to see if this would verify.

Note the watches and warnings up now.

Note the radar today and map.

Now look at the loop for the next 3 days.

That's intense.

Two things to think on here.

One.... 

If you remember back during the hurricane season Texas had flooding rains over and over from unnamed storms that developed from a low just off the coast? This is the same set up now this winter they had during the hurricane season. Now that fronts are on the move the lows that form are hooking up with the frontal boundaries moving across the map as the Southern Jet is enhanced due to El Nino. This should continue this winter and I'm wondering on what the 2019 Hurricane Season will bring or won't bring depending on how and where El Nino is strongest. Until then Texas is in it! 

Two...

People think a winter storm is not a winter storm unless someone is buried under a foot of snow. Nope, that's not how it works in the South. Winter storms bring flooding rains, torrential downpours and severe weather and even occasionally tornado outbreaks as the warm, warm air from the Gulf of Mexico meets up with the Polar Cold Air from "Up North" as we say "Down South. That collision zone can get nasty. Waves along the coast can and will be high. Wind will be strong and yet except on TWC it will not get a name. But it's wicked weather just the same. 

So if you live in the Old Deep South anywhere from Texas to the Mid Atlantic keep your eye on your best weather source for local advice. The weather will spread up along the whole coast of the US and someone, somewhere will get actual winter weather ala snow. However, weather is weather and when it gets nasty it can wreak havoc from travel problems to just regular every day problems. 

In North Carolina we have had record rainfall this year and other areas as well have had and between wet winter storms and snow further to the North at some point Spring Floods may be a real concern down the road... or rather down the river. Stay tuned...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... This is called "Sea Foam" and it's fun to watch along the Outer Banks. But after the departure of the Great Carolina Snow Storm ;) it really kicked up the waters along OBX. Enjoy the video.... great place to visit and spend time in any weather but I prefer it when the wind is blowing.