95L Forecast by Models to be Humberto. Oh and Humberto Has a Fan Named Imelda Following Him.. Like a Groupie.. East Coast Repeat of Dorian or GOM? What Begins In Cuba Doesn't Stay in Cuba Down the Road.

3:30 PM

Note we are at 80% in 5 days for development.

Before reading further...

.. putting this excellent tweet here.

Interesting indeed.

Note the bottom of the map has more tracks.

As I said earlier... it's possible Imelda forms to the S

South of Humberto that should form...

(lots of ifs...)

and Imelda wants to follow Humberto.

Currently we just have Invest 95L

Well, this outta be very interesting.
Stay tuned.. pic.twitter.com/qm2r0CaKcf

— Anthony Siciliano (@AMSweather) September 12, 2019

Check out the difference in the initial placement of the tropical system we're watching on models. If you're not putting the right numbers into your math problem to begin with, you're probably not going to have the right answer. Hurricane Hunters fly @ 4. pic.twitter.com/Um0Xxqgfxk

— WRAL Kat Campbell (@katcampbellwx) September 12, 2019

Why are there so many model differences?

A rather new good met in Raleigh tweeted this..

Note they started at different points.

You can't come to a fork in the road....

...if you are on a different road.

Hard job for NHC.

Until a center pops out.

and models are run from that point.

Models will continue being messy.

But the general concern remains.

Take away from above is...

1... Recon going in..

2... Potential Tropical Cyclone Advisories could begin.

You see the convection above.

Diffuse over a large area.

More concentrated last night.

Shear is light in that general area.

See where it says -10

in blue NE of Cuba.

Where NHC X is...

However there's disturbance from nearby ULL

That ULL is swirling...

..drawing convection apart...

..add in small mini ULL to it's NE

And note below...

Earthnull shows a kind of center.

A bit of convection there but not wrapped around it.

Models are useless as they differ in timing, intensity and track.

It's possible models are picking up on different centers.

Until you have a closed center...

...you just don't really know for sure.

If you live in South Florida rain may be in your forecast.

It can slip up the coast.

More on that later.

Stay tuned.

Note the newest NOAA Loops...

Places a Low down near/over Florida.

Expect Potential Tropical Cyclone Alerts...

...to begin from NHC soon.

Very possible... not there yet.

But probable.

Recon goes in later today.

Keep reading...

Before the sun rose...

...after the sun rose on Invest 95L

See the question is which center is the center.

Developing systems can have many centers.

Where Humberto forms...

...impacts the track.

Changes everything.

On the image above you can see blow ups ...

Explosively trying to develop.

Nice large pocket.

Now where does it form?

That point directs the models.

Latest models at 9:30 AM

Compare and contrast with older ones.

Models look scary...but...

From far away nothing there yet...

So what's the hysteria about?

Oh did I say hysteria?

While you slept the models kept running.

You have to zoom all the way in.......

See it's lifted off the coast of Cuba from yesterday..

NHC has 95L at 80% RED in the 5 day.

High marks for a student they didn't think much on...

...on the first day of school.

70% in the 2 Day.

So this could get named sooner rather than later.

And it's got a friend.

Remember that.

94L is gone.

BUT.......it's old track is still in play.

Putting in motion for you...

You can check back and watch it in real time.

The big question here this morning is...

...what happened to the strong ridge?

Not that I'd mind seeing the hot temps go away.

But what pushes them away could be a pain.

I may be drinking PSL Frappes...

...but it's still feeling like deep Summer in the Carolinas.

So doing models first today.

Later this afternoon we can compare.

Contrast.

And look at the various satellites

See what the future Humberto did today.

Note some GFS runs take it into the GOM.

Nothing is off the table yet with this one.

Though this morning everyone's watching the E Coast.

Link to the GFS and warning this run does a lot of strange acrobatics in the Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

Starts down by Florida on Monday.

Then moves up the Florida Coast.

Shuffle Dance of 2019

Stays politely out at sea.

Oh Lows appear everywhere ..

..in Mid Atlantic.

Why I don't know.

It's the GFS

Thursday GFS cruises Humberto past NE...

...up to the Canadian Maritimes area.

You have to loop it yourself.

To see the Atlantic Acrobatics it's got going on also.

So let's move on to the EURO that stirred everyone up this morning upon waking up and finding out it brings Humberto together fast enough for 3 different recon missions to be flown today and us to see the Dorian 2 Track but for 95L not long term 94L and luckily those who still have their hurricane supplies (just in case) still have their hurricane supplies. The EURO has many members of it's ensemble (talking weather not politics) and many want to ride Humberto up the coast giving him a tour of the Mid Atlantic, NJ, NY and of course New England on it's Grand American Tour of 2019. Oh and if you believe this run of King Euro know it has a fan that follows him everywhere. No one in tropical meteorology needed a shower to wake up this morning and the coffee is going cold. Yes, it was one run and it flipped greatly from the previous one so we do what we always do and don't eat the hurricane supplies and wait for the next run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Remember it ends with this image.

Humberto begins as expected off SFL

Not so much to look at...

...then does a Florida Beach tour like Dorian.

Bit stronger here waving to Charleston again...

...oh wait what's that down there?

Excuse me? OBX again?

What's down by Cuba?

But what begins down by Cuba...

...doesn't stay down by Cuba.

What starts down there after sneaking in...

...to the Caribbean.

Could be Imelda

Yeah that song "let's do it again...."

Oh and now Imelda has friends.

After Humberto leaves.

So you ask can this really happen?

Yes and it has happened over and over again.

Try 1955 though 1954 had the same game plan too.

Following 1954.

I'll say that again.

Often history repeats.

Frances and Jeanne.

3 weeks apart less than 2 miles apart.

It's what we call repetitive pattern.

Will this happen?

Have to wait and see.

Next model run and.......

..more important watch satellite loops.

Get plane info...

...had to ask @DadaBuh.

Master of songs.

Of course this is the song I thought on...

One of my favorite country songs ...

...from a while back.

Actually used it for a ring tone.

Because we gonna be watching aircraft take off..

...if the next model run is the same as this one.

But usually they flip flop ... ...  

Oh and the kicker here is the Canadian.

I know ..you knew that.

Listen I said early on this season....

...it was a coastal cruiser season.

Donna repeat over and over now it seems.

The pattern called for it... I'm not a seer.

I just call em like I see em.

I'll update later today.

After the afternoon model runs.

We can compare and contrast.

And as always in September prepare...

... because it's peak of the Hurricane Season.

Going to take a long shower.

Have more better coffee...

...and listen to Mike at 9:19 AM

Cause want to here my good old boy..

...tell me what he thought when he saw models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

;)

Til then going to dance to Havana oooh na na 

Because I love that song ;)

Note what begins in Cuba...

... won't stay in Cuba.

But does it go up the East Coast?

Or get into the Gulf of Mexico?

Dangerous either way if that happens.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.