Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, September 06, 2019

Clean UP and Recovery After Dorian Makes Landfall on OBX Left Town..... Invest 94L By Africa Most Likely Becomes Humberto and Possibly Threatens the Islands Down the Road. Too Soon To Be Sure.. Models Running.


Woke up this morning and it was stormy.
Took off to walk around the Mall..
..get out for the first time this week.
Came out of the Mall 2 hours later.
Blue skies... seems Dorian really is zipping along.


And on the way there I saw power crews.
About 20 of them in a convoy.
Took me a minute to think to take a picture.
That's the beginning of clean up and recovery.


So what's with Dorian?



That's where Dorian is now...
...on it's way to Canadian Maritimes.
There are some tropical storm watches out..

From Salter Pass near Emerald Isle NC...
...to Martha's Vineyard ...
to Nova Scotia... 
Dorian is a long distance traveler. 



Hurricane Dorian Recovery.
After the Storm....

We really had a hurricane here in NC.
And SC and parts of Georgia are in clean up mode today.

There was flooding on Ocracoke Island...
It happens often but that doesn't minimize it.
People stranded as water rushed in fast.
That's how fast the water rushed in...


I wonder if people are hearing about this...
..I Googled it ... it was hard to find info on.
Yet local stations are doing live coverage.


(story below in link)

https://www.wbtv.com/2019/09/06/hurricane-dorian-weakens-category-storm/







Avon Pier is very loved here.
It was just reopened after Florence damaged it.
Never ending battle on the Outer Banks 
Many people actually live on the Banks year round.
It's not just for tourists.

The Outer Banks are beautiful.
Especially after the tourists leave..
..and things are quieter.
No stranger to hurricanes but...
...that doesn't make the clean up any easier.


Lots of clean up.
Costly hurricane.
Same strength at landfall as Florence.
Back to back landfalls.
We had Matthew also.
Hurricanes are back in style in the Carolinas it seems.

I know you want to know about the jeep.
Whatever... seems a new thing.
Every hurricane has some stranded vehicle.



People are strange.

As for Invest 94L
My brother in Miami sent me models.
He said he wasn't happy about them.
Another wave comes off behind that one.
It's also expected to develop.

Using Mike's graphics here.
He deserves much credit.
He tries very hard to get as much info ...
...out to you as he can.
He does a great job.


Westbound.
Westbound for now anyway.
Buckle your seat belts.
It's going to be a bumpy ride the rest of September.

The story with that wave is that it is forecast to develop later rather than sooner, and because of that it is forecast to get further west rather than pulling up to the NW the way Gabrielle did recently. The later a wave develops the further West it usually gets. There's two issues and much depends on timing, how fast it develops and how fast it moves. A high is building in but there's the issue of Dorian cruising up the Atlantic basically making one huge wake. Gabrielle is racing off after Dorian and there is a rouge sneaky wave closer to the Islands that may or may not develop. Usually after a large hurricane you need a good week for the Atlantic to settle down and become friendly again. The wave gets closer to the Islands, some models see it pulling to the North and others continue it into the Islands. Some people feel the models are showing it getting into the Caribbean (that puts the Gulf of Mexico and Florida in play) and others see it going up over the Islands putting the Bahamas and the East Coast in play. As for me... I prefer to see the whole wave in the water swimming and see what it's got before I make predictions based on long range low pressure trends on models that go out two and three weeks. So let's just wait a bit and see what is going on with it in two days. And there are more waves coming off behind it and they will plop into a friendly ocean devoid of SAL and without the strong dry subsidence that bothered those early waves.

Have a nice weekend. Enjoy yourself and be appreciative of all you got even if you got some problems it's nothing as bad as what the Bahamas are going through and those stranded at Ocracoke and dealing with flood waters that remain from storm surge washing over the South Outer Banks near where the tornado destroyed homes in Emerald Beach are having today. Give thanks and keep a weary eye to the Atlantic and Caribbean because this season is far form over. Do not eat the hurricane supplies. 

Much love and be well and I'll be back sometime Sunday Morning.

That's all folks..



BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Instagram and Twitter

Ps... People are just strange. What's it going to be next hurricane? A Ram Truck?



9 AM 
Friday...
LANDFALL! OBX!




Dorian doing a Bulls Eye on Cape Hatteras.
Did OBX make an official landfall?
Yes it did...









As we wake up this morning.
These are the facts regarding Dorian.
Dorian flirted with landfall.
And Dorian finally committed...
And NHC made that call.



Much discussion on actual wind speed.
Flight level winds vs Doppler radar velocities.
It was officially a 90 MPH Hurricane at 8 AM.
The NHC prognosis is a downhill slide.


As in bye bye so long farewell.... 


Forecast to race away.
And I can tell you from Raleigh ...
....the low clouds from Dorian are racing away.

GOES16-AL052019-13-1000x1000.gif (1000×1000)

Dorian looks more like a SuperStorm than a hurricane here.
Transitioning to Extratropical.
Mean sense of humor with a long tail.
Teasing the Florida Keys with rain this morning.


They are lucky that's all they got from Dorian.
I can't tell you what a 185 MPH Hurricane...
...would have done to the Keys.
Irma would have paled in comparison.
It would have looked like Grand Bahama.
Nuff said on Dorian.

One think I will say though...
..if I lived up there.
I'd take a drive across the Cheasapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel.
Would be one heck of a ride today.
I believe they are on Level 4...
..that could change.


Not sure why the TWC never sets up there.
It's beyond beautiful and in the middle of everything.

http://www.cbbt.com/

Now let's talk on Invest 94L
70% red and waiting for an upgrade.
When the NHC gets around to it.
So let's take a look at the tropics.


Invest 94L far right to the East. 
Big C showing you it wants to be ...
..a classic CV Hurricane.
Far to the left what's left of Fernand.
Gabrielle down graded.
Poor Gabrielle I barely knew you...
Fare ye well. 
94L OVER the CV Islands.
Yellow in the 2 day.
Red in the 5 day.
Humberto most likely.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Use that link to see what I'm looking at..



Most models show a long distance tracker.
Be ware models have flipped back and forth on this...
Mostly they take it towards the Islands.


Westbound, riding low in the ocean.
Up over the islands or into the Caribbean?
Or does it aim at Hispaniola as Dorian once did...
Florida and the East Coast?
Or Gulf of Mexico ... Louisiana and Texas?
Can't tell.
I'm not into long range guessing.
Thoughts are above if not a Fish Storm.
Well it's a fish in that it's n the water swimming.
But which way and where does it go....
It's a long ways away.
You can use this loop to watch it grow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir


Time will tell.
Either don't eat the hurricane supplies... 
...store them away if or donate them.
Someone's gonna need them.
2019 is a busy season.



As for my morning.
I got up early after going to sleep for a change.
Trusted Cranky that it would be "blustery" this morning.
And it was ... 




Yes that happened.
I went outside and it felt air conditioned.
Autumn like... fresh air.
beautiful.

Those are my Carolina Pines.



Lastly I hope I didn't offend any yesterday.
I'm not a Democrat and I'm not a Republican.
I've been both. Grew up in the Blue party.
Went Red then went back.
My favorite color is purple.
I'm truly Independent.
I've voted for both depending on the candidates.
I'm not so much into agendas and party platforms...
..as much as whether I feel I can trust the candidate.

Time will tell what happens in 2020.
I'm busy with the 2019 Hurricane Season.
Trying to stay focused... always hard for me.
Got solid As and Bs on report cards always...
...and yet long lectures to my parents on being easily distracted.
Not working to my potential.
Yes I scored genius on some test.
No I didn't become a brain surgeon.
Nor did I get Condi's job but could have done it.
Same degree, same subject ...graduated with honors.
Published papers.. now I'm here doing this.
Life goes on.
So this is my Bottom Line today.
(Humberto in the wings... Dorian leaving)
Going personal ...
...if you don't want to read it.. don't.
I won't be insulted. Really.
Just needed to say this.
Warning though long run on sentences.......

Bit of a personal comment here before moving on the way Dorian is moving on finally. Dorian is leaving, though should rough up the surf in Virginia and possibly the Del Marva as it marches on it's way towards Canadian Maritimes. You can all go back to talking about politics, just don't send me the same memes nonstop that everyone has seen 100 times while I am trying to get important information out to someone who may need the information distracting me with poorly put together cartoons to drive an agenda despite the fact that the NHC had Alabama in their long range cone in  products the general public doesn't usually look at but were probably shared with our.. President. He's not a meteorologist and I'm tired of hearing about him. Let him do what he does, find a candidate and get behind that candidate and campaign, give money, give time but don't send me memes that everyone has seen when my ONLY agenda right now is the 2019 Hurricane Season. I had a Pumpkin Spice Frappe we are moving into fall, football is game on and Halloween and Thanksgiving is around the corner. When it's 2020... I'll deal with it but it's an annoying distraction that takes away form the message meteorologists need to get out to people in the path of a deadly hurricane. Because it didn't rain heavy at your house it may have been in Castle Hayne (a town down near the coast) that had close to 11 inches of rain and huge trees did fall in Wake County (Raleigh) and many people are without power. When a hurricane is threatening landfall I want to be focused on the hurricane, it's core, it's dangerous weather be it surf, tornadoes, winds and storm surge and many people who have evacuated from picturesque towns like Southport (beautiful) and Wrightsville (my closest beach) to Raleigh trying to get news on the storm and many of those people rely on social media and people they trust. Not everyone has cable anymore and many don't watch The Weather Channel anymore (I do) and for some reason they have every app on their phone but not a weather one and they can't figure out what the NHC site online is telling them (why I don't know but it is what it is) so they contact people like me, and Mike from SpaghettiModels or follow Cranky and Dabuh and others for information because for whatever reason one of us resonates with them and then they understand what is going on with the storm.

This is the bottom line why many of us are online... to help, to share information that matters concerning what is happening now and down the road... and to share with each other because we are a community of sorts. We are diverse, we have different views on politics and religion but generally we don't discuss them except during an election that is next year not this year and it just waters down our messages online when we go deeply political or try to make funny jokes while many are trying to figure out how to put their lives back together. Yes, it hit the Bahamas but there are people who spent more money than they had to prepare for this storm, many who packed up and took off from their lives and work to evacuate and that wasn't in their budget either and some are old, ill or have babies to take care of or like one woman I knew in Savannah who is due in three weeks and didn't know whether she should stay or she should go and go where but she went to Atlanta rather than get stuck should Dorian decide to do Savannah. They are real people, they no longer make phones calls.. they look online, they text message, they direct message me and others and I try as best as I can to relay to them the best advice reminding them to use the NHC as their bottom line and listen to officials.

So sorry for the long rant not using any real forms of grammar but just me speaking from the heart to you. I have no dog in this race right now, I will figure out who I want to support as we get deeper into 2020 and we see who is left standing... right now I am focused almost on providing information about Dorian, Humberto in the wings and Karen down the road. Okay?

Dorian is gone... y'all talk about whatever you want be in politics or life I may even talk on make up or music or how to style my hair.. I don't care anymore.  I'm tired. I want a weekend to relax and then I'll be fresh and prepared to discuss Humberto forming most likely in the Eastern Atlantic or MDR depending on when the NHC is ready to name it. Their call, they make the call... be it Humberto existing or Dorian making official landfall. Love ya all, thanks for reading my long blogs and going to try to be a bit shorter and more organized with Mister Humberto.

Have a wonderful weekend and if you lost money or time or had some sort of damage from Dorian I'm sorry and I suggest anyone and everyone reading this give charity to a group they trust or the Red Cross. www.redcross.org and if you have the time think on giving some to them as a volunteer they need people and it's a rewarding "hobby" to take on if you have the time and follow natural disasters and you most likely do if you read my blog because you're not here for great literature I'm sure.

Much Love,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps Ain't no way I'm proofing that... so ready for the weekend. If you're the type to go to Church or Synagogue go say a prayer of thanks and if you aren't into that go sit in nature or wherever you like and look around and say "I'm so appreciative we didn't get that beast dead on" and if you don't want to be tempted to eat your hurricane junk... give it to a Food Bank they will be happy for the extra donations.

Need to go for a long ride in the car with the windows open and the music blaring...

posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:18 AM

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