UPDATED 9 AM...Dorian Coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina ALL in Danger... Models Tropics. Models Coming into Agreement. SC/NC Landfall For Dorian Possible. GA Gets Impacts as Does VA
Dorian is currently down by Daytona Beach.
But it's not exactly moving like a race car.
The sounds are there but not the speed.
The good news is it is picking up speed.
And moving steadily up along the coastline.
Offshore, tracing the coast.
NHC Cone traces the coast ...
like way a child outlines with black crayon.
Remember when you all did that?
Kids do it.
Dorian is doing it.
Any wiggle or joggle brings the eye over the shoreline.
But understand winds are not fluid with the NHC cone.
You can get much stronger gusts in a squall near the eye wall.
So even if you are 20 miles inland....
....there is no reason to feel safe.
Tornadoes and flooding..
happen way outside the cone.
We learned that in Floyd, Florence...
Irma and Matthew.
Always happens.
The cone is a guide and changes by degrees.
Remember that.
I love the other cone shown below.
This is interactive and takes impacts into consideration.
Cape Fear shown below.
Just South of Wilmington.
Just North of Myrtle Beach.
Use that map if you anywhere close to the coast.
Or even a ways inland.
Directing you to the TOP of Spaghetti Models.
He has so much local information up there.
Use it.
NHC has put info at the top of their page too.
Look at the fine print at the top of their page.
Local info for all the cities near or in the cone.
I'll update around Mid Day with Totally New Blog.
Wrote long last night around Midnight
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED.
Dorian may STRENGTHEN.
NHC Discussion says..
MOVING BETWEEN NW and NNW.
Every degree West makes a difference.
And it's traversing Low Country.
This beautiful marshy area begins..
North Florida into Georgia.
South Carolina and up a bit into North Carolina.
In the path of Dorian.
And that's a big problem.
I don't see the NNW movement.
The eye is on radar.
It's a huge eye.
This map is my map for areas of concern.
Kure Beach is a point within it.
I used it to bring the map up.
From Pawley's to Kure I'm worried.
Closer up.
This area could get a landfall.
I'm not saying it would.
I'm saying it could.
The NHC Cone is just off shore.
Warnings are up and flash flood concerns are there.
Mike is great at knowing what people want.
What people need.
He has watches and warnings up..
...including inland before the cone.
The Cone is a con.
It's a good tool that gives you a visual feel ...
...but it's nudged in any direction a bit on every advisory.
People treat it as if it's carved in granite.
Models wiggle.
The hurricane misbehaves.
Then the cone is jiggled this way or that.
In the end the Hurricane wins.
The hurricane always does what it will.
A front approaches...
A high builds in....
A hurricane responds.
Caught on the flow but not totally.
Discussion below.
Ragged huge eye.
Intensity could be generous.
There words, mine are on Twitter.
I don't feel the winds are there...
...but will go with it.
Does it really matter?
Dorian finally moved again.
Steering currents should take the core near
"or possibly over, the coast of South and North Carolina.
That discussion is translated as...
"low confidence"
Models below.
In good agreement.
I mean this with total respect for NHC.
But with models like that...
..anyone could draw a cone.
Let's see how things change in the morning.
Best news of the nite is Josh is alive.
@icyclone can chase another day.
And Bahamas need help.
Lots and lots of help.
The beaches of Carolinas will need help.
Inland flooding is a problem always.
I'll go into that tomorrow.
This was more marking time.
Thinking outloud.
Nothing much has changed.
Dorian is moving.
Dealing with dry air.
But Dorian has always been a fighter.
Always.
Kind of like Josh.
Don't bet against them.
More tomorrow.
I with but I can't say.......
... this is just a near Wilmington ...
Clips the Outer Banks.
I'd love to say that.
I just don't feel it yet in my bones.
But I feel due to approach and timing issues.
And it's current longitude so far West.
It's more a landfall than a miss.
And the CONE has it's bets covered well.
It's a good cone.
Beautiful form.
Still down by Melbourne FLORIDA
Neat pretty.
Top heavy with long band going through NC
And SC up above ahead of the storm.
I just think this is one that doesn't slip away.
Either way does it matter?
Except for wild video at the ocean.
NC and SC are about farm land.
About inland flooding.
It's all River Basins as I've shown before.
The rivers that feed the farms....
... can flood the farms in a hurricane.
And that's been happening since ...
..we started settling in this area.
This beautiful neck of the woods.
The eye of #Dorian has returned. The hurricane is quickly regaining organization tonight as it lifts northwestard away from the Bahamas. pic.twitter.com/jnzJ8Y14z7— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2019
Note for those worried (as I was)
Let's say concerned.
@icyclone is alive.
Horrific destruction.
He got out during the eye.
Because the eye was clear and wide...
...more time to get to stronger place.
Good to know.
As for Dorian... loop above shows the process.
Putting the music at the top.
Being different.
Mixing it up.
Dorian has a ticket to ride.........
and as it's moving now.
It's taking that ride.
But will it make stops along the way?
That is the question?
Offshore fast escape or landfall?
Either way we will never forget Dorian.
And we will never use that name again.
5 PM UPDATE...scroll down if u are just here for model discussion.
Please read previous blog with more update information.
This is models ... history.
And a look at if Dorian makes landfall.
Future systems such as TD8
And remember models are in intense agreement.
So prepare and follow your local authorities.
And NHC doing an incredible job with Dorian.
New Player on the block. TD8 East Atlantic.
Dorian moving NW at 6 MPH.
Looking to take that ticket to ride finally.
Cone very similar.
We are now getting down to ...
"this is happening"
Clustered coordinates along the coast.
Just off for now.
Will they adjust it at 11 PM ??
TIME OF ARRIVAL OF WINDS
Please use www.spaghettimodels.com
Mike has EVERY link you could possibly want.
Morning updates on Facebook Live 9:19 AM
Random evening updates so check Facebook.
MY PREVIOUS BLOG
IS UPDATED
AND HAS THOUGHTS FROM EARLIER
ALL STILL IN PLAY.
Music and discussion.
This is MODEL discussion.
Dorian
TD8
TS Fernand.
TD 8 Below.
Models below show the reasons why...
The wave behind it stays lower.
Not here yet...
Could get into the GOM.
East Coast Cruiser.
Islands in play.
Too many days away to go there.
But putting it in here.
Season not over with Dorian's departure.
Fernand.
Short lived storm.
Any storm there can cause flooding.
Problems.
Luckily not a big storm.
Could we avoid a landfall?
Maybe.
Helene is our friendly reminder.
But it did have huge impacts.
Look how similar that track was...
...to our close up of the cone below for Dorian.
Close up of SC/NC border.
Close up Wilmington to OBX
Outer Banks.
Models all in close agreement.
NC Governor...
Could be any Governor from GA to NC.
This blog is for this region.
PROBLEM IS..
IF THE CONE VERIFIES.
11 AM above.
I'll put 5 PM next to it later.
Dorian touches...almost 80W
When looking at Hurricanes that did...
many made landfall.
Analog ones are shown above and below.
Fran.
Floyd.
Matthew.
Hazel.
All hit 80 West.
From different directions.
Hugo hit 80 W
From a totally different angle.
But talking on landfalling hurricanes.
Big ones...that hit 80 W
Hurricanes that hit 80 West longitude.
Have a problem being misses.
They can... Helene did.
But most do not.
And Helene impacted NC strongly.
Even if it never entertained it's eye.
I like to put this out before the 5 PM.
So at 4 PM these are MY thought.
Mine alone.
Busy out there.
So many models to look at and many sites to use but I'm going to use an old school one that is easier I feel for many to use. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ You can use www.tropicaltidbits.com it is awesome and his work is awesome as he learns more and grows in his field of study. https://www.windy.com/ is at the bottom, a great visual way to look at models if the other way confuses you and it does confuse many.
Going to go through this carefully below.
But first I have to tell you it's hard to find a model.
That doesn't pull East enough to bother/hit/hurt SC/NC
And as for Georgia.. home of St. Marys and Savannah...
Doesn't look great for them either.
And when I say SC/NC I mean INLAND impacts are possible.
I have to tell you these are my cities.
My places I go to be at peace with the world.
I love Low Country. Marsh land we call it in GA.
Love it. I went to St. Marys a month ago ...
...to see how the rebuilding of the dock was going along.
SLOWLY is the answer.
Crazy storm surge from IRMA smashed
their dock to Cumberland Island.
Boats landed up in the park and on the street.
Beaumont SC is one of my favorite little towns.
I was there recently I blogged... I tweeted.
I looked out over the marsh, water and...
I saw a hurricane, storm surge...
I tried to tell myself it was my imagination.
But I've said for months I'm worried on a coastal storm.
Went to Beaufort recently.
Stopped at a Cafe for coffee.
Stared out at the water across the street.
Though good coffee .. Cantore would love it.
Think I teased him sent a tweet if he has to go there..
Great coffee and great view.
Now I am hoping he doesn't have to.
So this is not ALL about OBX.
It wasn't all about Florida.
It was horribly about the Bahamas.
Now what?
Will update at bottom next model runs.
Let's start with the much maligned Canadian.
Remember the storm track might be off...
...but all offer valuable info on the High and Fronts.
Canadian scrapes the coast near Savannah...
2 systems off of Africa.
Lead high latitude wave (long deep tail S)
And newer wave everyone is watching.
New wave forecast to stay further South.
Dorian heading North along the coast.
Teasing Cape Cod.
Invest 91L pulls North.
Leaves wave behind further South.
After dealing with the Canadian Maritimes.
91L heads Eastish.
Sort of locked in there a bit.
Next system could pull N following it.
One of the man Euro models.
Again look at the highs and lows.
Not just the center of the storm.
Models change often within those parameters.
Also siting there in the curve.
Around Savannah GA and Beaufort SC
Slides up the NC coast.
Talking about the center.
Not heavy rain and flooding.
Does not develop the wave in any big way.
Below once Dorian gone EURO shows quiet.
Strong high.
Maybe that wave becomes a "Silent Runner"
Meaning shows up later for trouble.
Back to the GFS always misunderstood...
Remember GFS did see Dorian.
When Euro did not see Dorian.
Really not looking good for GA/SC/NC
Wave develops and closes off.
Fernand landfall Mexico.
Note it's a big huge high.
Storm stays South of the High.
Next wave much lower.
Dorian feasting on E Carolina BBQ...
Dorian rides the coast terrorizing VA and Mid Atlantic.
Wave drama in East Atlantic.
Below we see future.
Dorian gone.............
1 possible hurricane cruising West...
Towards Islands.
PR VI
Song would be "let's do it again"
I try to stay detached with very long term models.
Even short term models I take with some salt.
Amazingly the old GFS looks similar.
What's in a name?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/oldgfstc2.cgi?time=2019090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
HMON
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/oldgfstc2.cgi?time=2019090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Hmon likes E Carolina too.
Loses 91L down the road.
Good news is........
... it take Dorian far from NJ NY and BOS
On it's way to the Canadian Maritimes.
Dorian is trouble always.
Steady tracker.
Models jiggle it a bit back and forth.
We don't really want to talk about the HWRF
Note you can go frame by frame and see for yourself.
Specifically 91L
Doesn't develop it much.
Again we were watching the next wave more seriously.
But with so many characters on the map.
Models have problems sometimes.
Dorian King of the Pack right now.
NAVGEM
You know when they say models eventually come together?
It's not looking good for the beautiful SC NC coastline.
Georgia's beautiful low country.
St Marys is going to have huge impacts from Dorian.
A wave develops.
Storm forms.
But it races off after the King of Canes.
BOTTOM LINE
It's extremely plausible...
..to expect a LANDFALL from Dorian.
Inland impacts.
Flooding.
Winds. Surf. Storms.
Tornadoes.
All towns along the way but..
Somewhere from St. Marys GA to OBX NC.
Should Prepare to deal with Hurricane Dorian.
I'll update IF anything changes.
Late tonight of tomorrow morning I'll narrow it down.
Besos Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Again St. Marys is still cleaning up from IRMA.
Beautiful place.
Labels: cone, discussion, dorian, FL, GA, History, hurricane, landfall, maps, models, NC, NHC, SC
posted by BobbiStorm @ 1:31 PM
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