Updated MIdnight. CAT 5 185 MPH W at 5 MPH ...Still Moving West. Dorian Does the Bahamas.....Invest 91L By Africa.. Still Playing Chicken with Florida.
Putting a video in here.
He's good.
No one is perfect.
He explains a lot.
I want it to reference.
Dorian moving West: southeast landfall likely, especially NC coast https://t.co/ZtUNVCFtBG— Bernie Rayno (@AccuRayno) September 2, 2019
Cone at 11 PM.
Basically the same.
NHC is sure........
Moved watches and warnings up the coast of FL.
Let's hope it makes that turn and verifies.
Totally eclipsing Bahamas on sat imagery.
@Sandman7591 #Dorian up close personal loop in #Bahamas pic.twitter.com/rp15SwkHn6— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 2, 2019
Been 185 MPH since 2 PM.
More than 9 hours actually.
Going to go to bed soon......
........and start over again in the morning!
9PM
26.6N 77.6 W
Is it stalling?
Slowing?
You be the judge.
Dorian Does the Bahamas.......
Listening to Mike live now
Look how many people.
Everyone watching up and down the whole coast
Close to 44,000 people.
Everyone watching Dorian.
NHC keeps center of 5 day cone off shore.
But cone over land.
Close up of the South side of the Cone.
I'm very concerned on Boca and Coral Springs.
(Lots of friends there... )
NHC trying to hold this line.
Based on model guidance.
Way too close for comfort.
Winds should be picking up fast.
And it's not that I don't trust the NHC
But it's your house, your kids, your pet.. YOU.
So follow them but know they can move track...
... inside that cone closer to the coast.
If that is what happens.
If Dorian doesn't STOP or start gaining latitude.
There is a mistake in the models.
I say it all the time.
When you get timing off... the package is off.
Timing on rapid intensification.
Timing on the turn.
Timing on speed.
The list goes on and on.
Amazing imagery.
Please read.
That's it.
Unless we wake up tomorrow and it stalled.
Or pulled right a bit.
My logic is below.
Good luck.
Bottom line for Miami.
Watch it like a hawk.
Way too close for comfort.
Even at 5 MPH x 12 = 60 miles.
You move the cone 60 miles West.
Those red outer circles go over Miami.
Understand how this map above works?
Way too close for me to write off landfall.
Or a mistake the models are making.
But trust me I am rooting for those models ...
..and for Dorian to be kind.
And totally miss Florida.
But with every hour it gets harder to believe.
READ INFO BELOW PLEASE.
With prayers for everyone's safety...
...and those in the Bahamas now.
BobbiStorm .. updating live later.
Ps..oh Invest 91L formed in the CV Islands.
Humberto most likely.
High storm... track should be high.
Wave behind it will be lower and more of a problem probably.
4 PM thoughts.
DORIAN’S DEVASTATION: This is what the Cat 5 storm did today in the #Bahamas.— News4JAX (@wjxt4) September 1, 2019
Updates on storm:https://t.co/C9dQXrom4l pic.twitter.com/8MzTrtpC6e
Putting some thoughts out here before the 5 PM new cone. Dorian has not significantly slowed down much, NHC dropped it down to 7 MPH and it has not gained any significant latitude while crossing the 77W goal mark that I mentioned previously. This is not good. More so the doorway has opened up for Dorian to feel the weakness in the ridge seen on water vapor loop and yet Dorian doesn't seem to be looking. And as the day has progressed all 3 of the systems in a neat row have begun to spin. The Yucatan Yellow is spinning on MIMIC loop and the one behind Dorian has a spin. Oh and African Wave looks like it's ready for a name let along an Invest tag.
Dorian now has a high aloft because it is a Cat 5.
One of the strongest hurricanes we have ever seen.
It is pushing West... pushing into Florida's space.
Below you see all 3 lined up ...
..like planes coming into MIA for Labor Day Weekend.
Same latitude... westbound for now.
Though future tracks different according to NHC
Yucatan one looks like a dolphin leaping.
To the North of Dorian is a weakness in the ridge.
But Dorian may be following the Yucatan system...
...the way it was tugged along by the ULL earlier.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl×pan=24hrs&anim=html5
Note it is all moving WEST...
NOTE THE SPIN seen on this loop.
Yucatan Dorian, New Yellow, Circle.
If you loop that you see what I mean.
So how could the models be wrong?
Perhaps they are not wrong.
Perhaps it will turn.
I have a saying I use often on this blog that I've been doing for ages... Life is logical and if something happens that doesn't make sense logically it is because there is something you don't know yet ... some part of the equation that is missing.
One historical analog more. Hurricane Georges that I have mentioned already. Every model, every forecaster explained with great detail why Georges would move more NW starting around the Virgin Islands, then PR, then Hispaniola then Cuba.... for no logical reason it just kept going and maintained strength considering it spent more time over land with mountains than water. Bryan Norcoss just stood with his hand on his hip shaking his head almost at a loss for words.
From my blog below.
Sometimes Hurricanes do counter intuitive things...
...that make sense in retrospect.
Let's hope Dorian is about to make that turn.
If not there is a reason why.
It will become apparent.
But it may be too late not to impact Florida.
Landfall near the coast somewhere...
And South Carolina and North Carolina...
...have declared a State of Emergency.
If I was the NHC... I'd tear my hair out.
Honestly it's prudent to put up watches further South.
But it's a big decision for a multitude of reasons.
And almost all model support says....
Dorian will turn.
But when?
But where?
Waiting on the 5 PM
Sure hope this happens.
And we wake up tomorrow and...
Dorian is pulling more to the right.
#Dorian now has wind gusts over 220 mph! This slow moving storm is still expected to make a northward turn by Tuesday morning. pic.twitter.com/7kqzgZm24j— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) September 1, 2019
Strengthening over the Bahamas.
Again there are no mountains.
There is barely much land.
My gosh can this get much worse?
Seriously.
Upset me when the NHC said.....
...some interaction with land.
That is not really "land"
It's an illusion.
Beautiful illusion.
So you are seeing all the images from the Bahamas.
I wanted to show you what Marsh Harbor looks like...
...on a good day.
Like some small Key in the Florida Keys.
Flat... low lying...
A spit of land with pretty colored buildings.
Warm friendly people.
Looks like a my neighborhood in Miami...
...when I was a little girl.
Now this is what it looks like today
Wind Probabilities.
Note how close Miami and FLL are...
...to hurricane forecast winds.
Yet the NHC trying to hold the line..
...on their ongoing forecast track.
Doesn't dip it down that low.
Listen they like continuity.
Continuity is good.
Reasonable.
They have had ZERO experience....
.forecasting a 180 MPH hurricane.
That eludes their ability to nail intensify forecast.
Timing...well they say 7 MPH now not 8 MPH
I thought Dorian would stall back days ago.
I mentioned in my long detailed blogs.
I tweeted it often.
But now I'm a bit skeptical of a stall.
Because 180 MPH was never on the table.
My thoughts below remain the same.
I also told Jim Williams last week.
When he pushed me nonstop.
I thought it could make landfall N of WPB
And maybe even the Lake gets part of it.
I thought to myself "really??"
One of 3 tracks in my head.
So I went with it.
Note the wording above from NHC today.
A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Lake.
When I said "go over the Lake" I didn't mean just eye..
.. part of the hurricane.
That could still happen.
I also talked on the ridge weakening.
When models didn't show it.
But I'm beginning to lose faith in that.
The ridge will weaken....
....but when and where will Dorian be?
So I can't take landfall off the table.
Perhaps the EYE stays off shore...
But part of the hurricane can be over the FL coast.
And I read the discussion but...
Bahamas doesn't really have mountains.
They are FLAT like the FLORIDA KEYS
So don't think Bahamas will weaken ....
.....it unless is stalls over them.
I know putting up watches means various things...
...need to start to be put into work.
Shelters, school schedules.
ETC... I don't care.
I think NHC should move the watch..
...down the coast.
Rules are good but rules are often broken..
...especially by Mother Nature.
Be back in a bit.
Continue reading nothing really changed.
Except in intensity but that does change everything.
But NHC holding with the big turn.
And Larry Cosgrove who I admire immensely...
..said it would turn just offshore.
Let's pray it does.
Strongest hurricane ever in Bahamas.
That we have record of since keeping records.
NHC goes PINK for the update.
175 strengthening Cat 5 Hurricane.
Headed WEST 8 MPH.
Towards Florida.
What will NHC say at 11 AM.
EVERYONE asking WHY No Watches or Warnings
For areas further South
Miami FLL WPB etc...
NHC has to make that call.
If you are in South Florida
(Miami... Keys... FLL)
Do NOT eat your hurricane supplies.
Keep your shutters up if you put them up.
Do not waste gas or cash.
Hope the turn happens fast.
Last advisory was off by 20 MPH.
NHC forecast it to be 155 in 12 hours.
They missed their forecast point Intensity wise.
If you miss the intensity you throw the forecast off
My daughter Rivky, my Hurricane Andrew 7 month old baby I talk on, said I need to sum things up faster and her boyfriend wants to know what I think so this one is for you Rivky and Joel.
My top bottom line is we have to seriously watch Dorian carefully. I know how and why and where Dorian could turn and slow but so far it has not done so. Why? Well for one the old models that just ran had bad old info in them. You have to understand models are giving a starting point and run from there. That is why when we get better data from dropsonde and recon the next model runs are expected to be better. Garbage in and you get garbage out. It's currently moving and to be honest it intensified while moving. Often hurricanes slow down and intensify and or they begin a turn, until it does that is only a forecast and a forecast is a prediction based on scientific information that could be contaminated by bad data. And, honestly I say this all the time the atmosphere is FLUID always changing, rearranging and every change in the atmosphere impacts the next move Dorian makes. Note the convection by the Yucatan, the convection behind Dorian. Some models called for the High to build in a bit over the next few days behind it and others called for steering to collapse. So now let's just drop the models briefly and deal with what is..
The NHC should post watches up for more parts of the Florida coast and most likely they will attribute that to a much wider wind field as Dorian is now 175 MPH and the pressure is still dropping even though it is at historic levels. 922 MB and dropping... recon finding strong long gusts closer to 200 MPH. Wind speed has to be maintained, but a gust can do massive damage. In Andrew a strong gust on Miami Beach blew the roof off a house near Pine Tree Drive into their neighbors pool. You didn't see that on the news. A 160 MPH gust of wind in Andrew blew the radar and satellite off the roof of the NHC building FAR FROM THE EYE. It just gets wider as winds intensify and the models are close enough to the coast that any change in models based on current intensity could and I said COULD bring the center of Dorian over land. Miami and Ft. Lauderdale would currently be on the SW side and that usually is weaker.
Until Dorian slows and follows the forecast all bets are off. I'll update AFTER 11 AM.
8 MPH x 24 = 192 Miles.
It's just math....
each miles west forces a sharper turn..
If and when...
Just don't blink.
Listen to the old timers.
One day we had nothing.
Now we have 4 systems we be watching.
Tracking a 175 MPH Cat 5.
Waiting for it to turn or stall or do something....
Keep reading.
Only thing that changed is.....
NHC not properly handling Rapid Intensification.
No real model did... so sok.
Well not really okay but.
It is what it is.
And now you know why I HATE that saying.
As the sun rises over Cat 5 Dorian.
Perfection... what a machine.
Cranking.
160 MPH.
Cat 5.
Official.
Models.
up on www.spaghettimodels.com
Cone below.
Same cone pretty much....
We knew it was going to be upgraded.
Everyone's been waiting and watching.
Recon reports come in ... in real time.
What a world we live in...
Still playing chicken with Florida.
About to assault the Bahamas.
Another view.
Look at that eye.
Crazy.
And most all the models wrote this off early on.
And most all the models wrote this off early on.
Lost it somewhere in the Atlantic.
Tenacious beyond words.
Crazy.
What's more crazy?
We have 4 systems being tracked.
I know you are only hearing about Dorian.
I know you are only hearing about Dorian.
The rest don't have names.
African wave should get one soon.
70% Humberto.....
Yucatan Yellow. 30%
Look who joined the party.
Been wondering when they were going to say something.
Why?
Go wide..........
Consistent convection for days.
Getting darker, brighter, more red.
Logic all the same currently.
Weakness in the ridge coming, coming...
Dorian moving slow forecast to stall.
Waiting, waiting, waiting for Dorian to stall.
Heck I'm waiting for Dorian to slow down.
Still moving 8 MPH West.
Note what I said below how ...
...consistent it's movement has always been.
With every degree West....
...Dorian has to make a sharper turn to avoid landfall.
What if it stalls slower, gets further West.
Before turning more to the right?
Great graphic from Dabuh.
Slept late because fell asleep late.
Think maybe 4 hours sleep?
My son sent it to me.
Love it.
Yeah it's something to remember.
Read on NHC how the cone works.
NRL cone.
IF YOU ARE IN THE SHADED AREA.
Watch Dorian VERY carefully.
You have a chance of wind probabilities...
So waiting on the 11 PM
It's a huge advisory package.
Most models including HWRF show it offshore.
But many still West of where they were before a bit.
Going to take a shower.
Going to have some coffee.
Going to watch Mike at 9:19 AM.
Going to update the blog at after the 11 AM.
PLEASE read the previous blog.
I stopped writing around Midnight so it's still relevant.
Nothing really changed in logic.
Except we are still waiting for Dorian...
...to move slower than 8 MPH.
I suggest you watch Mike.
Live or after if you are busy.
A reminder why.......
....while we watch Dorian.
Humberto may be forming.
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/cat-4-dorian-playing-chicken-with.html
Be back in a bit,
Bobbistorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Edge of the EYE of a Cat 5
Jim Edds is an old friend.
Great guy, awesome chaser.
Labels: cat5, dorian, History, Humberto, hurricane, invest 91L, stormchasers, waiting, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:53 AM
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