UPDATED 5 PM. Friday. MAJOR Hurricane Dorian CAT 3 - Watches In Bahamas & Will Go Up for Florida Soon. Questions Arise Now Officially Over Track & Timing. Ridge Weakness? Coastal Runner... GA SC NC VA up or GOM? Hurricane History Yellow Area Off Africa at 30% Yellow
Note how close the center of the cone is to the coast.
Will the next model run keep it there?
Or well what will they do?
Dorian is moving slowly.
Slowing down.
Trying to make the turn to the WNW.
That's forecast movement.
Again this is a 2 part game.
1... it makes the turn left. (W)
2.... it makes a sharp turn back right (N)
Note that's the NHC forecast.
I think the turns may be less sharp.
There is no wall anywhere.
And they have said the steering currents go weak.
I'm still concerned it crawls or stalls.
Going back you will remember I said that before.
Discussion from the NHC below.
It's not stellar but it explains their logic.
It's a Major Hurricane.
Possibly Cat 4 soon.
It's dangerous.
They put up warnings for Bahamas.
They waited for South Florida.
Probably because it's forecast to slow down.
He feels the ridge to the North is building.
I don't really agree.
It was but to my eye it seems weakening.
I could be wrong obviously.
We will see by tomorrow what's with the ridge.
HOWEVER... he says the steering currents will weaken.
I've said that for a while.
"given the collapse of the steering currents"
Dorian in theory moves slower...
IMPT Part below.
As models are indicating a turn.
I guess the models don't think the ridge is that strong..
NHC adjusted the Cone's center line a bit to the right.
Right as in East.
Right as in much closer to the coastline.
Note NORTH of Port St. Lucie now.
That's a change.
And look how close it now is to the coast.
11 AM had it near Orlando.
That's the shift he's talking about.
One could infer from this image.
If the trend continues it could stay offshore.
They are NOT ready to go there yet.
Especially with a tricky slow Cat 3.
Read the bottom of the blog on Hurricane David.
Such a turn could happen.
It is always bad having a Cat 3 or 4 near your door.
But there's a difference with it lurking vs knocking.
The 11 PM will be interesting.
Rain warnings show where they expect Dorian to go.
They expect it to make the turn.
But where and when?
Current Cone?
Time of arrival of winds.
Please go to NHC site and read their rules.
Note they have it up by me Tuesday evening.
Speaking of wind probabilities.
The top of the probabilities have moved up into NC.
Check it out....
Raleigh is in wind probs.
Low but imagine that will change.
Watches and warnings.
This is my logic.
I'm watching the water vapor loop.
Important note to regular readers.
And more so to new readers.
I'm offline from Friday at sundown to Saturday night around sundown as I keep the Jewish Sabbath that has those parameters. I usually leave a small TV on mute in the other room so I can check on the progress of the storm as I have most of my family in Miami and it allows me to breathe and relax more and I do much resting on my Sabbath. Tends to refresh me and Lord knows I'll need that rest this coming week as whether Dorian slams into Florida or cruises along the coast destroying beaches from WPB to Jax ...either way at some point it is forecast by long term models to go up the coast towards Georgia, Carolinas, VA impacting the MidAtlantic possibly, flirting with NJ/NY and threatening Long Island and possibly NE. We really can't say for sure as let's face the NHC still has low confidence beyond the third day.
While away please remember to follow my favorite forecasters online.
www.spaghettimodels.com and follow him on Facebook sight at 9:19 AM every day.
www.hurricanecity.com Jim Williams lives close to where Dorian could make landfall.
He is supposed to be live at some point and he did a great job chasing Michael last year.
www.crownweather.com he has a paid per view site but he also updates on Twitter. He is good. @crownweather
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp A fantastic App that is easy to use and has good info.
I'll be back on Saturday Night.
The NHC is the bottom line always.
After the Florida drama the drama moves up the coast. The NC forecasters on TV tonight are telling us when it may come to us and many point out it might miss making a landfall in Florida but only time will tell.
Again before it makes that turn right it will turn sharper in theory to the left and scare many in South Florida and Central Florida. This is a dance as old as time when it comes to hurricanes coming up from the tropics towards the SE coast.
Stay tuned... keep watching. Keep reading if you didn't read the rest of the blog yet today.
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Stay calm, focused and safe! Do what you got to do and let me know how you managed and have to remind you we may do this again in a few weeks as two waves are leaving African and many models develop both of them. Sunday begins meteorological Fall and we move into Prime time in the Hurricane Season as we head towards the peak of the season.
Major Hurricane.
Cat 3
Leaving this info above until the 5 PM comes in.
I can't wait to read the NHC discussion.
What will they say? Admit?
Change? Or hold the line?
Watch the WV Loop below.
See the dark greens blowing up close to SE coast.
Maybe afternoon Tstorms ?
Note it is as if the ridge is going to break.
Not all at once. Not that dramatic.
But moisture from Dorian is helping fill it in.
As moisture gets flung out ahead of it.
The ridge is getting a squeeze play.
From the SE coastal convection.
From the approaching front.
Hmnn.
Another loop.
One more set of pics.
Before and after.
Also note Dorian's eye.
Very visible in the bottom image.
Category 3.
Beginning of the loop.
See the lilac pink.
Wide. Respectable ridge.
High pressure.
Below
Colors are fading...
...where did the strong ridge go?
I'm not saying there isn't a ridge.
I'm saying it's fading away.Water vapor shows you the story.
Mild high pressure pushing Dorian NW
(light blue behind him in Carib)
Thin but solid High Pressure Ridge to NW.
(dark blue)
I'll show you what I mean.
Note how it moves down.
It's becoming a bit weak around SC/NC line.
Top image is an older image.
The bottom image is newer.
The high pressure IS there.
But it was darker blue before.
Thinner but still strong.
Devil is in the details.
There's also very inviting moisture near Florida.
Green bubbles... convection.
A very healthy Dorian below.
I always knew it would be photogenic.
Good picture.
Cranky posted it.
He's got good solid commentary.
That is a Cat 3.
Solid round red core.
Little eye turning it's orientation a bit.
Moving slowly all in all.
NW at 10 MPH
970 MB.
Updated cone at 5 PM and the blog.
Waiting to see also is Miami Dade County.
There is a debate on issuing evacuations.
They're waiting on the NHC
That's a lot of pressure on them.
MIMIC Loop Image.
Link to loop below
Great predictive loop.
You see the dry air in blue over the Deep South.
The moist orange erodes the Eastern edge of the coast.
Below is a wave off of Africa.
Most likely our next Invest.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.
This blog is about the tropics.
It's topically tropical.
Remember how Dorian started small?
This wave starts big.
Below the NHC graphic from 2 PM.
Up to 30% on the 5 day.
We can talk on models later.
Models close it off.
Nuff said.
Note Dorian leans a bit more WNW above.
But it is currently going NW still.
NHC maintains the turn up the state.
Traces I95 more or less.
Subject to change at 5 PM...
Highlighting discussion below.
ULL moving down to Cuba.
As we talked about prevously.
Dorian can breathe better then.
Dorian should move WNW and then West.
Ridge, timing issues.
Dorian slows down.
Much uncertainty on 4th to 5th day.
Long duration wind event.
Long duration rain event.
Forecast to be 140 MPH.
Moving inland over Florida.
As always I remind you things change often.
Models adjust to changes in the environment.
The environment is fluid.
Dorian adjusts to the environment.
At 11 PM NHC position for Dorian Inland.
That will change a bit at 5 PM.
Port St. Lucie
Fort Pierce
Vero Beach
NHC makes a sharp right turn.
Up closer here.
Note cone bulges a bit NW as Panhandle could be in play.
Very close up and person for you.
That's a hard turn they are showing.
And from the NHC interactive site...
This is a close up map.
Great site but traffic was intense.
Hard to get it working right.
Speaking of traffic...
If you are evacuating.
Know everyone North and West of you may be doing so.
Take extra food, water and hope you have extra gas.
Because it's going to be a mess.
I have to tell you that.
But everyone has to make that call for themselves.
Miami is to the South of this track.
That could change.
FLL more impacted.
WPB and BOCA strong impacts.
Unless over the next 2 days ...
...things change.
We can only hope and pray that happens.
I'll update around 5 PM.
Keep reading... lots of information.
Read slow and take it in.
Listen to the music.
Music relaxes us and that's good.
Wide view below.
Cone below that.
Spinning.
Showing you where it wants to go.
Cone shows you below.
Similar Cone.
Note at the last day it feels the ridge.....
Pulls North after landfall.
Could it feel the ridge sooner?
Yes.
Will it?
Time will tell.
Follow the NHC advice.
Do what you got to do.
Wind probabilities have been kept the same.
They seem very sure.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/
MIATCDAT5+shtml/300854.shtml?
Grid from www.spaghettimodels.com
I don't want to show the timing graphic.
You can go to NHC and look at it.
The timing is in question.
And it's not the best advice.
When the NHC hoists watches and warnings.
Follow them it's that simple.
What point I want to make here is I have been saying for days that it was very possible the area just North of West Palm Beach could be the most logical place where Dorian would make landfall if the track and forecast maintained the same and no wrenches in the forecast showed up. I was and am wondering if it could track over or near part of the Lake. I've always had the feel it would scare all of South Florida but if Dorian finds any weakness in the ridge it would make a run for that weakness and try to pull more to the North and the Coastal Cruiser would become a real concern down the road as I have mentioned before and illustrate below talking on Hurricane Donna that I have mentioned numerous times in this blog of late.
After doing a long study of Central Florida and nearby hurricanes it became even more clear that the stronger a hurricane is it tends to go further South as Jeanne and Frances did or it turns much like David did or slides North along the coast. Exceptions to rules always happen and Dorian could be that storm. Never say never as an old friend used to tell me all the time.
AFTER FLORIDA..... it will most likely impact Georgia and the Carolinas and you wonder if it could get into the Gulf of Mexico and I can't rule that out. It's forecast to slow down and the steering currents are forecast to break down so the one thing I can tell you is that Dorian is a bit of a Drama Queen. People are going to hype this storm and say crazy things online and in your Whatsapp group... do not fall for it. Shake it off if you get scared and stick with the tried and true of who you trust and the NHC. Not Aunt Martha and not your neighbors who are telling you this story or that but those who have never let you down whether that's Mike or Jim from www.hurricanecity.com or Jim Cantore on TWC or Rob from www.crownweather.com or me and most of all..........the NHC!
Shake it off.
Do not panic!
Things can and will change.
Fantastic NRL map below.
The outer red circle is Tropical Storm Force Wind.
The inner circle Hurricane Force Wind.
As of 5 AM WPB could get Hurricane Force Winds.
Miami Tropical Storm Force Winds.
FLL a blend of both as it sits in between.
I really think Martin County is most likely to see Dorian.
Would it be crazy if Dorian did Martin County.
After hitting St. Martin in the Virgin Islands.
That just hit me and it could happen.
Something to think on while preparing.
A bit of Miami humor from Instagram.
The real issue so far with Dorian is this.
It doesn't really look like a Cat 2.
But recon says it is......
It looks good but not really great.
See the moisture to it's West.
Showing this numerous times.
It's the pieces of the puzzle.
Earthnull shows it well.
Looks very good on the main page.
Go down into the atmosphere ...
...you see the Upper Mid Level Low above.
That has been stuck like glue to Dorian.
Trying to move away.
NHC mentioned it in Discussion today.
Discussion highlights.
Now the NHC mentions what I have mentioned before.
And we just have to watch and wait.
Just ONE point here again.
Briefly Dorian could a bit South of West.
It would most likely be short term movement.
Depending on it's forward speed.
If it does dip it should pull North eventually.
And make landfall.
I95 Storm?
Turns and goes up the coast?
Or it keeps going West ....
....til a real weakness opens up
The NHC Cone is Sound
But options are on the table.
Watch that ULL and see if it pulls away.
Dorian could follow it ...
...or then finally breathe.
Become a Cat 3
And do it's own thing.
Some storms to keep in mind regarding Hurricane History. Dorian is not exactly any one of those storms but blend parts of them together and you get a picture on what Dorian is up to...
1. Donna. I have said numerous times in this blog for months that the pattern this year begs for a storm to follow previous tracks but being stronger and getting closer to Florida and then riding the coast much like Donna. While Dorian in late August going into September (Donna time) is threatening Florida with the landfall of a Major Hurricane out of the East there is the chance that the slow movement of Dorian down the road will allow the timing on the ridge's movement and the next front and that will allow Dorian to find a weakness in the ridge somewhere and more so move towards that feature that today on satellite imagery is way bigger than Dorian.
This tweet from earlier.
You see Dorian top right.
An upper/mid level low (small red) on it's right side.
Ridge top left grid.
BIG BLOB top right moving SW towards Dorian.
More on how the ULL stuck like glue to Dorian.
Attached like a barnacle refusing to leave.
1 image above shows it all.
Florida is in between the two.
Ridge to the North.
How fast does Dorian move?
Timing is everything.
After Florida the East Coast is in play.
Like Donna, different but similar.
Another D name bites the dust.
While watching the GOM.....
.... I was reminding you about Donna.
And the pattern setting up for later this season.
Now we have Dorian.
More hurricanes will form....
...so this could seriously continue.
Read previous blog on historic patterns.
Jeanne made landfall 3 weeks after Frances.
The landfalls were only 2 miles apart.
I don't mean to scare you.
I mean to educate you and advise you.
We are not even into September.
More Atlantic cruisers will come.
Caribbean cruisers will come as well later.
This graphic above showed the 2019 pattern.
Not much changed.
Except stronger hurricane.
Closer in track.
In April I brought up Donna. It was apparent we were going to have strong waves that swim far and develop close in and I've been concerned on this coastal runner scenario.
Again track of Hurricane Donna.
2. David. Hurricane David has a very similar track and again a D storm like Dorian. D storms to Florida are like F storms are to North Carolina. Let's begin with the track below for David and remember I have used it numerous times as an analog for Dorian.
Note even Hispaniola didn't break it's stride.
Again I was in California that year.
My brothers were called me...
... giving me play by play on the drama.
Daddy on a ladder.
My mother telling him to get off the ladder.
Packing up and evacuating from Miami Beach.
So using my brother Jay's own words here.
He's a good writer and no one says it better.
Woke up to messages on Facebook.
He's in Greece hours ahead of me.
Miami kids root for hurricanes.
Well it happens.
Then we grow up and worry on them.
His book is shown below.
Yes, writing runs in the family.
Creativity and Arts of all kinds.
Could Dorian scare us all and then slide away?
I sure hope so.
But note David did real damage up the coast.
Miami was spared.
It all depends on the forward speed and timing.
Models offer many solutions.
History offers many solutions.
Now it's up to Dorian.
And if Dorian does a Donna....
WHERE and WHEN does Donna turn North?
Current cone.
3. Betsy. Back in 2012 I put this link up in my blog regarding a study that was done of Betsy and it's many stages. Betsy ran in tandem with a similar sort of pesky low and when that changed, Betsy intensified and never looked back. But Betsy changed directions often on it's way to South Florida. Betsy went NW, moved back SW then turned W before finally feeling the weakness and heading towards Louisiana and on inland. Different set up, different storm but often hurricanes run in tandem with a feature that seems to stalk it while sometimes helping guide it, intensifying it and hindering it's intensification.
One of the best studies ever of a hurricane done by a master researcher. Oh snap it's out of print. Might be available somewhere. The Head Librarian at the NHC (who was really sweet) climbed up onto a high ladder and looking for that paper and made copies and bound it for me in a green binder so I could take it home. I've been very blessed by help over the years researching and collaborating on historical research by good friends at the NHC.
Track for Betsy.
Betsy stalled and turned often.
Oddly take out the changes in direction.
It went to where it began going.
Weak steering currents become forecaster's problems.
4. Jeanne was a similar track to Betsy's track except that Jeanne much like David slammed into Hispaniola and though it broke it's stride it stalled and looped and came back stronger, turned West under a ridge and slammed into Florida three weeks after Frances hitting the same beach about 2 miles away from the previous landfall. I used Jeanne in my previous discussion on hurricanes that made landfall North of Miami and closer to the Central Florida Coast. Hutchinson Island to be exact and Dorian may come close to there as well.
Jeanne was the cat that came back........
...then crawled up the Appalachian Trail.
Current Track for Dorian.
Map of where Jeanne made landfall.
Does Dorian go onto land and then turn up I95?
Or does it turn just offshore?
Timing is everything.
6. 1928 Hurricane that I mentioned yesterday and that's the last one I'll mention here today. It's relevant and it did make landfall very close to where Dorian could make landfall and it kept going vs sliding up the coast. Very similar track, similar time of year though later (I've said before this year is running about 3 weeks ahead of schedule to my eye) and here we are with the threat of a serious, Major Hurricane doing a very similar track if it doesn't snap back more the way David did as mentioned earlier. It's all about the timing. An incredible book to read it IS available on Amazon or any online bookstore. Tragic storm and a very rare hit that far North going over the Lake.
So where does that leave us now?
The cone will change that I can promise you, but not in a big way as the NHC adjusts cautiously and carefully. The trend is everything. Do not get lost in models that flip back and forth though as they trend one way more than another that is your guide but the NHC is your bottom line for actual info regarding the hurricane and they best know how to utilize the models knowing which runs to discount and which runs to weigh more heavily on while putting out their product. As the Virgin Islands know they are not perfect, but they come close in the end. Stick with them.
That said it's good to follow people online who have never steered you wrong nor given bad advice. As Mike says on Facebook Live and on www.spaghettimodels.com follow the NHC and listen to what they say even though we like to shoot the tropical breeze on Twitter and talk online at the end of the day the NHC is the official bottom line.
Let's review their most recent update at eight and yes that rhymes. NRL cone below. Why is the TWC in Vero Beach? First of all they are setting up there and from there they will move North or South up and down the coast adjusting to where Dorian ends up going. I was at Haulover chasing with a friend and the TWC left to go to Naples as it was crossing the state; a weak storm but one on the move and when it moves TWC moves with it and if Vero Beach is North (currently) of landfall it gets the storm surge and the strongest winds aside from the eye and it could get the eye. A lot of places could be possible landfalls as it's forecast to move slowly and feel a weakness in the ridge as I've said for a while now. Review last night's 11 PM update and scroll down to what I said earlier in the day.
I'll update later today at the top.
Or I'll make a stand alone blog.
Do what you got to do.
Should you evacuate?
Should you stay or should you go?
If you got the money honey....
....if you own a private plane?
My brother Jay sent me this song also.
I'll be here blogging.
In truth it's better to find safety inland...
...in a well built structure with shutters.
And hunker down.
And hopefully ...
....you will wake up and there will blue skies.
And you will find out Dorian turned ..
But prepare for the worst...
...hope for the best.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time updates.
And as always....
Let this be your mantra.
You need to calm down....
By the way if you drink ...
... that's not a bad drink for a hurricane.
Check out the models.
You may need a drink.
Or chocolate.
Whatever works for you.
Go to ABC Liquor Stores.
Mike's supporter and tell them..
Thanks and that Mike...
Drunk Donkey sent you ;)
Labels: Bobbistorm., cone, dorian, forecast, History, hurricane, hurricanedorian, maps, NHC, spaghettimodels, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:01 AM
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