Updated 95L Red now. 6 PM UPDATE.... 95L 9/11 and the Tropics. Home Grown Favored Currently. Down the Road Westbound Issues Into the Caribbean Islands

8 PM

Invest 95L got the red designation.

70% chance in 5 days for development.

40% in 2 days.

As I said at 6 PM I thought that should happen.

And it did.....

... I love that after dark when the sun goes down view.

Separates the intense weather...

..from the general clouds.

You can see more consolidation there tonight.

Can't wait to see what it looks like in the morning.

You want to know what I think?

My son asked me earlier.

He's in Miami...

Here were my thoughts.

Kind of voyeuristic to read but how I think.

BUT..........as it has looked better all day.

and NHC went with red tonight.

I think we can expect designation.

It's near a very populated area.

Everyone is suddenly hurricane shy...

..and even a Tropical Storm sounds scary now.

Not too scary.

But depending on where it forms...

South Florida could get swamped with rain.

It's a Full Moon so tides will be higher too.

At least a Potential Tropical Cyclone Cone.

Upgrade to Depression or TS.

The name Humberto is in play here.

Where it goes?

We need to see for sure where it forms.

Then the models get better.

It's close in and we will have plenty of time.

The water is very warm... in fact HOT.

So let's not... ignore it.

As for the Drama in the Tropics tonight.

It's like the Invest Olympics.

Yes that's what they said....

The huge orange pocket for the new wave.

Most likely Invest 96L over time.

Swallows up itsy bitsy little 94L

In fact the unnamed area has a 40% chance in 5 days.

Invest 94L has an official ZERO Percent chance.

Kind of it's Goodbye Song Tonight.

Well Gabrielle came back so why not 94L?

Shame 94L can't get the I name fast...

...the the new wave would be the J name.

Like Jonah... developing in the belly of the whale.

I'm tired, long day... being silly.

Odd graphic.

It's at the 50 Yard Line.

If it's gonna do something......

...now is the time.

So there they are...

..the 3 contestants for the name Humberto..

Will the new wave come on strong...

...swallow up 94L?

Could be.

Using this song here because....

... looks like that newer wave has teeth.

Jaws... 

Whatever it's name is.

True story.
Confession time.
Used to be friends with Steven's mother
Loved her, tho her husband was a doll.
She offered someone important to her...
..tickets for the premier of her son's new movie.
The person asked...
"why would I want to go see a movie about a fish"
...not to her but to friends.

A movie about a fish.
Jaws.

Yup. True story.
LA Days...
...only earthquakes to track.
Wondering if the full moon will...
...make the earth shake rattle and roll.
I keep thinking we will see a big one soon.

So check back tomorrow..........
Same blog, same tropics.
2019 Hurricane Season.

There are more coming after Dorian.
Give money now please to a good charity.
If you don't know one...
... you can always go with the www.redcross.org
Watch Invest 95L putting on a show below.



6PM

On the loop above you can see 95L

Looking more noticeable.

Also the new wave coming off Africa.

More on that tomorrow.

Just some thoughts on Invest 95L

It's beginning to look a bit better.

As it raised North a bit away from Cuba.

As it's been down near the coast of Cuba.

Convection has looked better and...

... has seemed to come together more.

Various views to show where consolidation is...

Water vapor image above.

Looks like it wants to go RED

Maybe at 8 PM NHC will up it to 70%

Time will tell...

Bright white shows where the strongest weather is..

Visible shows the it off nicely.

Becoming a bit more anchored...

in the environment.

Models from www.tropicaltidbits.com

I do expect this will get some sort of designation.

It's too close to heavily populated areas...

...and the set up calls for something to come together.

Stay tuned...

Tropics 9/11/2019

Will discuss 9/11 briefly below.

Don't like to remember it.

But never forget.

But as for the tropics today....

Remember this!!!

Our low chance yellow circle close in..

..is NOW orange at 60%

Officially Invest 95L

Atlantic waves down to Yellow.

95L moving up to red soon.

But a few days ago...

..within the 5 day window.

It had practically no chances to develop.

And all the attention was on the twin waves.

So remember please...things change.

And things change fast.

So giving you my thoughts.

But they can change in real time...

...if a center comes together.

And models change.

If you get some red here on the sat loop.

And it consistently is there.

Watch for formation.

For now....

...remember this is conjecture.

Based on consistent convection.

And some model support.

Starting with our Home Grown Issue...

These are models.

They change, they dance.

At some point them hone in on a target.

You need a center to get a good track.

Because until then you're guessing.

So let's take it apart and look at it.

There's nothing specifically in the tropics today.

There's discussion on a large area of moisture...

...without a real center SE of Florida.

Note two ULLs dancing down from the North.

Kind of looks like a chorus line of dancers.

They move down.... 

....into Invest 95L territory.

Nothing happening today.

In theory stealth like it oozes across FL.

Florida Straits...

Becomes a GOM problem.

More a rainmaker than windmaker.

Note the official weather graphics.

It comes together like loose jello.

Oozes across the N rim of the GOM

Moving West near New Orleans.

Tho know yesterday it hit Tally

Today's graphics.

Last night.

So what does www.windy.com show today?

2 models below for Sunday.

Both show convection.

EURO shows more of a center below.

But forming close in...

So what do you do?

You keep it in mind.

Check back tonight and tomorrow.

Take it one day at a time.

Until a center forms it's rain.. 

But any concerns on close in development...

heighten our concern.

So I began there.

But again currently nothing there.

Earthnull Wednesday Morning.

(ignore green circle it's where my pointer was..)

Clouds on satellite imagery.

Note high pressure to the North.

It's not going North.

Taking a Florida Keys vacation probably.

But as it's not formed yet.

Rain will be everywhere.

72 Hours out...

A low with a little trough ....

...moving through Florida Straits.

North Coast of Cuba.

Miami Naples to the North.

Going to be a rainy weekend...

that's no surprise most of the time in SFL.

If I was in Miami I'd go down with my brother...

...get some great pics of roll clouds or tall clouds.

Or rain moving in from the Bayside.

So what about that Low to the West of the Islands.

Well we have models for that too....

Starting with models from www.spaghettimodels.com

They are originally from www.tropicaltidbits.com

If the NHC was drawing a wide cone.

Would be everywhere.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Best loop above to watch formation begin.

When you see the orange kink up...

...begin to make a roll..

And roll along.

There's spin.

It's not really round.

It's not flat.

Looks like it's wearing a hat...

...with a feather in it.

Call it Humberto maybe.

Note tho the orange flow of moisture.

See how it's all linked together?

West of 95L N of PR... 

...DOWN to 94L

Behind 94L the mess of 96L?

All the energy linked together.

Orange is moisture.

Moisture is energy.

Blue is cold no go zone.

And you can see our shear producer there.

So rather than typing this out.

I talked out loud for you.

The Water Vapor Loop tells the story.

I can put up shear maps....

... go long on words.

Easier to talk here and show the loop.

Playing here. Thinking outloud pic.twitter.com/TsSLYw1Fy1

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 11, 2019

I'm not using heavy meteorological words.

I'm trying to explain and share with people.

Levi Cowan uses great meteorological lingo.

Jim Cantore does it like Shakespeare... 

I'm just BobbiStorm.

Being BobbiStorm.

So watch another view below.

In motion.

Check back often.

Things change fast.

But see how when that "cinnamon roll"...

... hard to see on this loop.

But easier to see on the Water Vapor.

Blows the new Wave apart.

It has to get further West.

West of 50 degree longitude.

Possible East Coast threat.

Or Carib and Cuba...

Or Florida

Or GOM

Too soon to tell.

Check back later.

Know we are knee deep in Hurricane Season.

As for 911...

Said this before but for newbies.

I was watching TWC talk on Erin...

...oddly up high in latitudes.

Talking to my best online friend.

And suddenly they disappeared.

Like poof.

That wasn't so unusual for them.

And in those days we talked all morning.

All morning... on and on talking tropics.

My daughter Dina who had just got back from Israel came running in the room and said 'put on CNN ..." and then I understood why my friend went quiet. It became very apparent. Her two brothers followed into the room and we all stared there in shock. One of her brothers said it must have been an accident. Dina had just gotten back from Israel where she missed being blown up by a bomb on a bus because she thankfully missed the bus during the Intifada where kids at pizza shops and on buses were blown up and she knew terrorism when she saw it. She explained they always do things like this in the morning early, then a little bit later they another bomb goes off to injure first respon............ the next plane flew into the other Tower. The debate on how it couldn't be terrorism but some commercial plane accident ended immediately (maybe the pilot had a heartache...  never mind we knew) as everything changed. The rest of the day was a haze of people staring up at the sky terrified another plane would come flying kamikaze style out of the sky into some big building, or a mall somewhere. At the library we took turns covering the reference desk and staring in shock at the TV in the Lunchroom and then even more in shock when a big, huge dark black cloud covered the scene and we realized or were rather told one of the towers exploded... imploded...came tumbling down in a cloud of debris and dust while people on the ground ran for their lives. People inside the tumbling building died trying to help save people but perished. Our naive sense of being safe far across the Atlantic from the rest of the world perished. The world got a whole lot smaller and our fears grew in magnitude. The Pentagon part of the story exploded as did the story of a missing plane that was in theory headed into the heart of Washington DC; as people took their lives and their deaths in their own hands trying to control the situation and deter that plan and though they did they died doing so. Heroic and hard to comprehend still years later.

No doubt on what was happening then.

Dina was correct.

Sadly.

Not sure why I remember this scene...

...more than the one up above.

It was surreal.

I came in the room and asked "what's happening"

No one knew.

Then we knew.

And things changed forever.

But even so at times we forget.

Because we don't want to remember.

It's painful, scary and sad.

Good article.

We forget we were tracking hurricanes that day.

Worried on NY and NE for other reasons.

Hurricane Erin.

No one remembers it.

Eclipsed by 911.

Images on the satellite of the smoke..

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/september-11-hurricane-erin-missed-east-coast

So yes...today is 911.

If you have a chance go the museum.

Remember.

Live your life ....

...enjoy each day.

Over time I've met people who were there.

Who escaped the tower.

Who lost family in 911.

Who still suffer from health issues.

Harder to forget if it took your family member.

So on 911 in 2019...

There are no hurricanes today.

Perhaps today is a time to remember.

And to also remember...

... more hurricanes will form.

And to give www.redcross.org

A good day to give charity...

..to those who help survivors move on.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Updating on Twitter in real time.

And I'll update this blog late today sometime.

Dorian NW 6 MPH - TS Fernand Develops.. TD 8 Develops. Landfall or Eye Stays Off the Coast? Either Way Impacts Happen

Savannah to OBX 

BUT... from St. Marys Georgit to Savannah...

There will be strong impacts.

High water, flooding.

Time will tell.

But from especially Myrtle Beach to OBX.

South Carolina/North Carolina.

Ocean Isle Beach... 

Really under the gun for a possible landfall.

Models show it.

History shows it.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_

at5+shtml/152656.shtml?gm_track#contents

Interactive product takes you down to street level.

At 11 PM we review a new cone.

Until then we prepare for a possible landfall.

Or... dangerous impacts from Dorian just offshore.

NHC is doing a fantastic job.

Models in agreement.

That blog explains why.......

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/09/

dorian-models-tropics-models-coming.html

Earlier today I wrote this blog:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/09/

dorian-models-tropics-models-coming.html

I would like to please read it.

Scroll through it.

It explains why models converging on landfall.

Or just offshore.

Again this can and often changes.

Dorian King of the Hurricanes.

NHC Cone keeps it just barely offshore.

What do I think?

I think anyone in that cone...

...needs to prepare as if they expect landfall.

So far it avoided Florida landfall but...

... you can't take that to the bank.

In a stand alone separate blog I talked models.

NHC cone has it at 80 W.

Almost all large landfalling Hurricanes in Carolinas

Hit 80West.

Helene did NOT hit 80 West and was a miss.

I say this because IF NHC moves track East of 80 West.

Down the line.....

...would give us some breathing room.

BUT...we would still need to prepare.

I did yesterday so I could write today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene_(1958)

Gee that doesn't make me feel better.

Meaning Invest 91L is TD 8

Predicted to be a FISH STORM.

One behind it shouldn't be ...

It's covered in my stand alone blog. 

Cranky wrote an awesome blog.

Responding to the question...

... could Dorian miss landfall.

He doesn't say it will or won't.

He shows what to look for that...

...could happen.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

More later.

Track a bit closer to Tex Mex Coast now.

but expected to make landfall in Mexico.

Note the one they didn't name is shown below.

Invest 91L

I get it Fernand making Landfall soon.

Small chance of RI and it gets tronger.

91L out there lumbering along waiting.

An example of why SAL doesn't always matter.

And why SAL just keeps storms forming closer in.

Closer in = Landfall and Land impact.

Got it?

Once they get past 50 West... 

Silent runners start screaming Twist and Shout.. 

Below is an image from Hollywood Beach.

Note where water is... is the beach.

Where people sunbathe... 

kids play volleyball while flirting :)

Old people sit and in chairs looking OUT at the water.

People eat in restaurants on the boardwalk...

...watching out at the water...

That's not some storm surge with waves.

Crazy really.

TIDE COMING IN...

across a wide beach.

Up to buildings.

Not from storm surge.

As for Dorian and the Carolinas.
Watches and warnings up INLAND.
Not a good sign.
1... flooding inland happens.
If Dorian doesn't grab the ticket out to sea.
Dorian slams into SC/NC border
As it's a large size system now...
..moisture and winds go far inland.

IF steering currents get weak.
And it gets lifted...
...pulls North past Florida.
And misses it's fast train out of town.
It could stall, loop off the coast.
Sometimes hurricanes do that.
No models that I know of are showing it.
If any models show that... I'd worry on it.
Just my thoughts for now.

Oh and putting together a new blog.

Models on future systems.

And possible problems in Dorian's future track.

With regard to Carolinas.... 

That's a long way out.

Remember I said to worry on the wave behind 91L

That's why. And not calling 91L a fish yet.

Good sign. 

Dorian seems to be really moving.

5 MPH NW now.

Keep watching.

Radar shows a weaker storm also.

Why you ask?

Where are the orange and reds?

Nice defined eye on radar.

It's become elongated towards North...

vs moving fast.

Give it time...

Note it's a bit top heavy now...

Feeling the tug to go North.

God Bless Chick really.

He is a true treasure.

Especially a Carolina treasure.

I meant to put up the watches and warnings.

Posted the blog and checked his thoughts out.

Oh watches and warnings... that's right.

Here's the watches and warnings below.

Are we busy yet?

A close up of the NHC cone shows watches and warnings.

Up to NC/VA border for now.

See the water vapor image below...

Yellow/Orange here is high pressure.

The gray is opening.. moisture.

To NW...then North.

You see the track and cone.

Even that Invest to the Right is saying.

Come on Dorian you can do this..

Dorian currently has winds of 110 MPH.

Cat 2.

As I said earlier today Dorian was not going to be Cat 3.

That means the last forecast package was seriously off.

Now a Cat 2.

Why?

Dry air intrusion as evidenced below in this image.

Yellow air creeping into the heart of Dorian.

From the South...up around the top.

Attacking it's core.

Dorian is STILL attacking Grand Bahamas.

NHC pointed out they are still getting..

storm surge, high winds, storms.

See how close the center still is ...

...it's barely moving.

Beginning to but... barely.

NW at 2 mph.

I can walk faster than that in heels

It bugs me when people say Dorian moves erratically.

When did it ever move erratically? 

The forecast sometimes is wrong.

The models FLIP FLOP often.

But Dorian has moved slowly and steady.

First 12 to 15 MPH

Slowed slowly.

Then stalled.

Now crawling.

Main basic track the whole time.

Adjusting for being further North now.

Where hurricanes interact with fronts.

And feel the pull to go North towards the Poles.

That is not an erratic track.

This is the problem when you track models.

You want to see erratic?

Below is the Queen of erratic.

Hurricane Betsy.

What next? 

We wait and watch.

There's a tug from the upper air feature that wants to grab it.

If you remember it sent it a ticket before.

A ticket to ride (see previous blog)

But Dorian never wants to say goodbye to Bahamas.

It will...trust me.

But that Cone is precariously close to the coast.

Also Dorian's signature the whole time.

So at some point can it make landfall? Yes..

Will it? We don't know for now.

Follow the cone. 

NHC changes it every 6 hours.

So it lands in the Cone ... 

They forecast a Tropical Storm at landfall.

A year of landfalling storms so far......

... more to come.

I don't want to scare you.

I just don't want you to eat your hurricane food...

As for PTC 7 it is no2 TD 7

Changes in that forecast also.

It is now predicted to become a TS.

Next name is Fernand.

Tho it's a busy time so stay tuned.

Invest by Africa could steal the name.

But NHC probably will go for continuity.

ERIN and DORIAN messy if u remember.

Happens sometimes.

Details... more storms forming soon.

I will discuss models later today.

I also want to watch WV Loop on Dorian

And how it interacts with it's ticket to ride.

I will give you my thoughts then.

These things are organic and develop over time.

A light doesn't go off and say DORIAN WILL STALL.

I said that last Thursday. 

Because I knew it would based on set up and history.

I didn't think it would stall as a 185 MPH Cane.

But I could see the stall coming.

Same way I saw it lifting over PR VI.

Not based on ever changing models.

Based on knowledge of water vapor loop.

Knowledge of history.

Understanding the upper air triggers.

I went out on a limb with Dorian.

I said it would survive beyond TD and TS.

It was extremely well organized.

It's big thunderstorm complex was always dead center.

Nice pocket waiting to fill up.

Some things you just know.

Like what a Cat 2 looks like on sat imagery.

And what will not maintain a Cat 3.

I've said before and this is my bottom line NOW.

It's a math problem.

Land interaction along Florida a minus for strength.

HOT WATER over Gulfstream a plus for strength.

Shear form approaching system a minus.

If it's core stays strong that's a plus ...

Dry Air Instrustion a minus.

It's all about math.

I'll be updating all day.

As for this 90% red.

Come on NHC you can handle 3 systems.

I know it's very far away...prob fish storm.

But still looking good.

Earthnull.

Note models show the next system.

Staying low...headed to the Islands.

Caribbean? East Coast? GOM?

Stay tuned.

I'll update tonight on models ...

Look at the arrows off the chart on the bottom.

Wow you should see the models...

www.spaghettimodels.com

Top left there's a link for models.

GFS EURO.. etc.

As for the system off Africa... 

Closed enough I'd think to be a TD.

Below our two named systems.

Image from earlier below.

Still so close.

Oh Lord Dorian ... cut the cord.

And just let go...

Pretty shot from a little while ago.
Still beautiful on Water Vapor.

The 5 day is above.

Note they have Dorian as a MAJOR hurricane...

Through Thursday at 2 AM.

From their 5 AM discussion.

"system is likely to remain a major hurricane...

...for the next few days"

Though "likely" is not a firm word...

...shows some hedging.

See the graphics below.

As things stand now this is NOT going to verify.

Caveat here in that it can intensify over Gulfstream.

BUT they also talked long on shear there.

So you can't have it both ways.

So let us look at Dorian together.

Currently it's still there...

...still crazy spinning nearby.

Moving at "1 mph" (yeah right)

Signature is that of a Cat 2 Hurricane currently.

Photographic.

Cat 3 Canes have that hedgehog look.

Cat 4/5 buzz saw

You see each category has a signature.

Cat 2 Canes are large, sprawling and beautiful.

Big arms

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

There is a degradation of the eye going on.

Could be very temporary.

Still intense energy but not as strong.

Moving soon.

Moving eventually.

It's basically a top spinning.

At some point it stops.

That made me wonder?

How long can a top spin?

It seems to have beaten that record.

Guinness world record is 27 hours ... 

Looking at the WV it's obvious

Dorian could take her ticket to ride..

...and start gliding.

vs crawling at 1 MPH NW.

But poor thing is probably plumb exhausted.

As the sun comes up....

Dorian is still there.

But losing it's eye.

Remember that.

It's as if it's tied there.

To the spot.

I'll give you my bottom line currently.

1. If the intensity forecast for Dorian is so busted.

(what else is new)

It could change everything in small ways.

Every small change extrapolated over time.

Becomes a big change.

Out to sea.

Landfall somewhere.

Want you to remember a Hurricane is more than the eye.

Impacts of all kind may slide up the whole coast.

I'm waiting.

Great song below.

My baby brother loved this as a baby ;)

Takes a bit to get to the song.

But hey you been watching Dorian for days.

Things change slowly...

...but change grows over time.

Inch by inch...

Dorian has company in PTC7 in GOM.

Not currently forecast to get a name.

It's close to land.

Next up should be the one by Africa.

Much going on...

Watch the one behind coming off Africa now... 

Orange.....

Check out the great loop below.

I'll update in a bit.

Not much has changed.

Our 15km MPAS is now updating for the 6z cycle. Here's a look at the model's forecast for Major Hurricane #Dorian. Note the large eye of the hurricane remains offshore. Rain bands are still predicted to impact coastal Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina over the next 2 days. pic.twitter.com/xVX1S6oK9y

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) September 3, 2019

Before going into facts.
Think on this...
...what is in a name?

Okay Dorian Gray didn't age.....

...and Dorian 2019 doesn't move.

Again update after the 11 Package .. I want to eat breakfast, watch Mike on Facebook Live.
Stare at some loops and talk some more. The 5 AM is not going to verify, if Major intensity isn't what else won't intensify? Track or Timing? Stay tuned. More Dorian Drama.