A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Updated 95L Red now. 6 PM UPDATE.... 95L 9/11 and the Tropics. Home Grown Favored Currently. Down the Road Westbound Issues Into the Caribbean Islands
8 PM
Invest 95L got the red designation.
70% chance in 5 days for development.
40% in 2 days.
As I said at 6 PM I thought that should happen.
And it did.....
... I love that after dark when the sun goes down view.
Separates the intense weather...
..from the general clouds.
You can see more consolidation there tonight.
Can't wait to see what it looks like in the morning.
You want to know what I think?
My son asked me earlier.
He's in Miami...
Here were my thoughts.
Kind of voyeuristic to read but how I think.
BUT..........as it has looked better all day.
and NHC went with red tonight.
I think we can expect designation.
It's near a very populated area.
Everyone is suddenly hurricane shy...
..and even a Tropical Storm sounds scary now.
Not too scary.
But depending on where it forms...
South Florida could get swamped with rain.
It's a Full Moon so tides will be higher too.
At least a Potential Tropical Cyclone Cone.
Upgrade to Depression or TS.
The name Humberto is in play here.
Where it goes?
We need to see for sure where it forms.
Then the models get better.
It's close in and we will have plenty of time.
The water is very warm... in fact HOT.
So let's not... ignore it.
As for the Drama in the Tropics tonight.
It's like the Invest Olympics.
Yes that's what they said....
The huge orange pocket for the new wave.
Most likely Invest 96L over time.
Swallows up itsy bitsy little 94L
In fact the unnamed area has a 40% chance in 5 days.
Invest 94L has an official ZERO Percent chance.
Kind of it's Goodbye Song Tonight.
Well Gabrielle came back so why not 94L?
Shame 94L can't get the I name fast...
...the the new wave would be the J name.
Like Jonah... developing in the belly of the whale.
I'm tired, long day... being silly.
Odd graphic.
It's at the 50 Yard Line.
If it's gonna do something......
...now is the time.
So there they are...
..the 3 contestants for the name Humberto..
Will the new wave come on strong...
...swallow up 94L?
Could be.
Using this song here because....
... looks like that newer wave has teeth.
Jaws...
Whatever it's name is.
True story.
Confession time.
Used to be friends with Steven's mother
Loved her, tho her husband was a doll.
She offered someone important to her...
..tickets for the premier of her son's new movie.
The person asked...
"why would I want to go see a movie about a fish"
...not to her but to friends.
A movie about a fish.
Jaws.
Yup. True story.
LA Days...
...only earthquakes to track.
Wondering if the full moon will...
...make the earth shake rattle and roll.
I keep thinking we will see a big one soon.
So check back tomorrow..........
Same blog, same tropics.
2019 Hurricane Season.
There are more coming after Dorian.
Give money now please to a good charity.
If you don't know one...
... you can always go with the www.redcross.org
Watch Invest 95L putting on a show below.
6PM
On the loop above you can see 95L
Looking more noticeable.
Also the new wave coming off Africa.
More on that tomorrow.
Just some thoughts on Invest 95L
It's beginning to look a bit better.
As it raised North a bit away from Cuba.
As it's been down near the coast of Cuba.
Convection has looked better and...
... has seemed to come together more.
Various views to show where consolidation is...
Water vapor image above.
Looks like it wants to go RED
Maybe at 8 PM NHC will up it to 70%
Time will tell...
Bright white shows where the strongest weather is..
My daughter Dina who had just got back from Israel came running in the room and said 'put on CNN ..." and then I understood why my friend went quiet. It became very apparent. Her two brothers followed into the room and we all stared there in shock. One of her brothers said it must have been an accident. Dina had just gotten back from Israel where she missed being blown up by a bomb on a bus because she thankfully missed the bus during the Intifada where kids at pizza shops and on buses were blown up and she knew terrorism when she saw it. She explained they always do things like this in the morning early, then a little bit later they another bomb goes off to injure first respon............ the next plane flew into the other Tower. The debate on how it couldn't be terrorism but some commercial plane accident ended immediately (maybe the pilot had a heartache... never mind we knew) as everything changed. The rest of the day was a haze of people staring up at the sky terrified another plane would come flying kamikaze style out of the sky into some big building, or a mall somewhere. At the library we took turns covering the reference desk and staring in shock at the TV in the Lunchroom and then even more in shock when a big, huge dark black cloud covered the scene and we realized or were rather told one of the towers exploded... imploded...came tumbling down in a cloud of debris and dust while people on the ground ran for their lives. People inside the tumbling building died trying to help save people but perished. Our naive sense of being safe far across the Atlantic from the rest of the world perished. The world got a whole lot smaller and our fears grew in magnitude. The Pentagon part of the story exploded as did the story of a missing plane that was in theory headed into the heart of Washington DC; as people took their lives and their deaths in their own hands trying to control the situation and deter that plan and though they did they died doing so. Heroic and hard to comprehend still years later.
6 PM UPDATE. New Wave By Africa Officially a Yellow Circle on NHC Map. Tropics Monday... Models for 94L & Wave Coming Off Africa.. Clean UP After Dorian HUGE. BEGGING YOU TO HELP THE BAHAMAS. Why I'm Begging? Read the Whole Blog. Where's WE ARE THE WORLD When WE NEED THEM??
Two big Upper Level Lows.
Almost working in tandem.
Moving South....
...pushing down into the Tropics.
Post Dorian and Gabrielle departure..
That wake I talked on below in the morning blog.
Models......
Note the wide variance in solutions.
Wider than that NHC Cone that covered Florida.
I will tell you models paint bad scenarios.
But it's early and they are long range models.
And they flip around a bit from run to run.
I'm not going to show them
Basically one model moves it slower, one moves it faster. We are still not 100% which system the models are developing so talk on too many waves in the basin let's wait til we get a better feel for the new wave, see what the old wave can do and wait to see the next few model runs. The general tendency in the tropics is for a wave to develop near 50 to 60 West, that's been the Go Zone all Season and on approach to the Islands we either have a real named storm or one forming. The storm goes through the Islands or clips the top of them much as Dorian did the Virgin Islands but there's lot of wiggle room to either try and thread that Mona Passage Mother Nature is obsessed with or lift through the PR/VI area once again. I know I don't want to believe it either but patterns persist. The difference is the recent passage of a historic hurricane and while the ocean is receptive again the system has to get past the areas you can see on the loop way below. Choppy waters as the wave behind Dorian and Gabrielle leave the Atlantic in a state of flux until it resets to a clean black board.
Just to the North of the Greater Antilles and PR/VI there is an area where the storm could deepen and approach the Bahamas though in this case it could head more towards the Turks but there is no way of knowing for sure because it's too soon. In general one very bad scenario takes aim at Florida and then pulls North doing that I95 Crawl that Dorian didn't so while another model keeps it off the coast as an Intense storm coming precariously close to the East Coast and New England.
Again models come and go and change in real time as things actually develop. Shear can be somewhere today and gone in a few days. Dorian went from a single thunderstorm in a nice pocket to a developed Tropical Storm, Hurricane and then a small hurricane and just before Grand Bahama it turned intense fast as small hurricanes are prone to do and the NHC really missed the extend of RI that went on; in their defense who could at this time in history really predict that perfectly?
Red NO.
Green GO.
If a Hurricane gets N of PR...
... it's where Dorian came together.
Shear tendencies flow often.
So that can change.
Could history repeat?
So let's let the new wave ride a bit and settle into the water. Let's see what Invest 94L has got and if it gets far enough West to develop a bit. And we can worry tomorrow and the day after tomorrow on what the models say.... Just keep those hurricane supplies on hand, follow the NHC and your local NWS and rely on your favorite weather people who have given you the best advice in the past. We are at the Peak of the Season, Prime Time Hurricane Season and if it's gonna happen by Africa now is the time for it to happen. In general we worry more this year closer in for more rapid development, sad but true. Please give to Bahamas Rescue relief and do what you can please, they need it and they need it yesterday. Watch carefully the video at the very bottom of today's blog as she tells it better than any of us can ever. www.redcross.com and if you ever went on even one Bahama cruise know those really wonderful people who worked in the markets, the stores, the hotels, restaurants are the ones who died, lost loved ones even if they survived and they need you now.
You can see Gabrielle top right leaving.
Everything follows getting pulled into the wake.
The Atlantic needs to calm down a bit.
And by the time the new wave gets to the Islands.
The environment should be more welcoming.
Sad but true.
Do what you can now...
And closer in to Florida.
Keep watching that area off the coast.
Moving closer.
But helping make sense of it all is not always easy.
So as Alanis sings isn't it ironic..... the models tried hard to latch onto the next monster storm to move towards our world and threaten the Islands, Bahamas and possibly the whole East Coast again and they couldn't get it right. Well unless 94L pops up fast into more than what it is and blows up in our face the way Dorian did and makes a run at the East Coast. Well or slip slides into the Caribbean and aims at the Gulf of Mexico but it's more logical it was a dud run of the models that had the NHC introduce 94L with 70% red chances and then it turns out it was nothing more than a red herring for the real wave behind it that is forecast to do bad things to places we don't want to have even one drop of rain for a little while as they are not even near trying to clean up yet.. We can't even get a real death toll and may never get a finite number on the people who died as storm surge washed over a small island at sea level where many wonderful people lived in small poorly built homes that got washed away out to sea... only their cars floating back to the ground after the storm surge moved on... slowly.
I'm serious. Sucks for the Bahamas, no other way to say it and having grown up in South Florida many of my friends came from the Bahamas and they are some of the nicest, kindest people you will ever meet. But not much of a government and no one seems in charge of this massive recovery process and I mean recovering bodies, finding food, helping them out ...
I won't kid you this is a mean hurricane season and it's not going to get any easier as it is what is called a backloaded hurricane season ... one forecast to go long and deep into October or even November. So the thought that any tropical storm let along a hurricane could trace over the places slammed by Dorian before we even can get aid in there or help the survivors or bury the dead is horrific and boggles the mind. But it happens. And anything you can do to help people there is huge.
Bottom like here is this... we aren't sure really. Many believe 94L tries to form and it is possible as it does have some spin, some sense of rotation and it's been persistent yet it becomes overwhelmed with the larger, stronger wave behind and gets taken over, eaten, gobbled up and the big wave behind only gets stronger.
Trying to use humor here...
...to defuse panic.
There was a lot of panic the other day.
Models showed a hurricane...
moving up I95..
Wiping out the East Coast.
Thankfully we moved back from that ledge.
And again ...again.... we come back to here.
Maybe.
Models change often.
And have problems with multiple systems.
NHC said 70% on 94L
Now they are walking it back 10% at a time.
Waiting on a new circle by Africa soon.
That's one to watch.
But never count out close in development.
Homegrown somewhere.
There is ONE BOTTOM LINE TODAY.
Track of the year...
Classic Hurricane Season.
Dangerous.
And NC is rebuilding.
They really need help.
REDCROSS helping...
Bahamas....... no words.
Areas totally gone.
Only the slabs remain from where homes were...
And more than 43 people dead.
Trust me on that.
Bahamas can't even get a death toll.
Not cleaning up bodies.
Watched one refugee after another being interviewed in FLL, RDU, JFK all being brought over by relatives in the USA and they say the same thing... over and over... dead bodies everywhere, rotting in the sun... one lady said she tried to cover them but there isn't much cloth around to cover them with as everything is wiped away. All lost family members or best friends or co workers or neighbors... miraculously during the long eye got to a few of the strong government buildings, huddled together with one bathroom and no food and then the storm left and they saw the aftermath... horrific. And there is no concert or big celebrity so far that has come forward to make some big relief effort; not yet anyway just Churches and Chabad and Red Cross... and Salvation Army (God Bless them all) and they need your help. Nice to say you are going to send them old clothes but there is nowhere to store them to be honest, they need money honey. They need money. They need to get the injured and survivors out of the Bahamas now. Or set up food and clothing and help in the few huge buildings built to survive a Cat 5 and the good news is those places did survive. @icyclone got to one of those buildings during the eye and that's how he survived. That's how others did who lived near by but the people too far away got swept away out to sea. They need water even though they are surrounded by the ocean...they need water and food. Send money to large charities that can do this even in their sleep and know what they need most and have ways to get it to them. They need water, food and medical supplies, shelters... they need money honey.
Chiante Russell and her family were on the Great Abaco Island in The Bahamas in their home and a shelter when Hurricane Dorian decimated the Abaco Islands as a Category 5 Hurricane. Her family survived. Hear her harrowing story. #HurricaneDorian#Dorian@BN9pic.twitter.com/Zj0vFtvoyL
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm