A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, March 01, 2020
Meteorological Spring. Hurricane Season 3 Months Away. Super Tuesday. Maps Music and the Coronavirus
That's a lot of states and mostly in the South though the most delegates come from California so keep that in mind. Last night Biden won the South Carolina Primary and although he won, he is said to have the smallest amount of money currently, but does money matter when you are coming off a big win in the first state that is truly representative of a good part of the country and you were the Vice President? I know, long run on sentence but with everything going on the world .... frankly I don't care.
So it's the once thought to be weak Vice President against the rich guy who has commercials running nonstop before every show in those states above (North Carolina included) vs Bernie who has excited minions going to rallies across the country. Oh and don't forget Pete, Amy and Warren (why does no one call her Elizabeth?) who are also running so let's just see where this goes and where we stand Wednesday Morning. Could weather be a factor? In some places it may. It especially could be a problem in Texas and some other places. How much people love a candidate or dislike another may make a difference in turn out. I grew up in politics, my degree in International Relations was a migration from Political Science to the INR degree so now you know the rest of the story. Yes, I do love maps.
As I have an ear worm stuck in my head and I'm trying to dislodge it... here's a song. Wouldn't it be nice if Superman could just come and save the day?
Speaking of old white men.....
Sorry but ya know....
...who you be voting for on Super Tuesday?
Will we find out if money can or can't buy Mike love?
Look at that image.... that area in the Southeast is RED HOT and filled with severe weather potential and no one really needs a Groundhog to know which way the temperatures are going right now or if Spring is on the way; actually it's Spring in the South currently as flowers are in bloom. Maybe this is a February Thaw? But unless you are out in the Far West.... the winter that never really showed up is about as far away as the real facts of what happened last night in Iowa.
Again let me say I am an Independent. Yes I was raised a Democrat that has often voted Republican or Democratic depending on the election and the candidates ...though I like to party I'm not a party girl anymore. I wait and see how the election evolves and which candidates are left standing and which candidate I believe has the best chance to lead this country as November nears and Hurricane Season slows down. Yes, between now and the next Presidential Election is the 2020 Hurricane Season but for now ...in the slow season.... I go back to one of my first loves and that is politics. So I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the beginning of the real primary season and Oh My Goodness. I've never seen so many professionals paid to speak on air be totally speechless. I sat there last night going back and forth between CNN and MSNBC and oh my goodness. I don't really want to curse on my blog but yeah ...that happened ...
I kept saying during the whole Impeachment Trials "can't we just have an election??" and now I'm thinking ... maybe not. No seriously, as "Mayor Pete" said you could see for yourself what was going on at the Caucus and in my words who was hot and who was not. You could see those enthused about Warren or Amy and the Bernie people were on the floor and Yang Gang insisting they weren't going to vote for anyone but Yang (many then drifted away) and the Biden crowd was extremely thin at some of the venues yet always cheerful people would come around on the next count or the next... No, I don't think that happened. But maybe we will never know for sure and that's sad for the Democratic Party coming off of a horrendous 2016 where it was obvious they tried to skew the election towards their favorite candidate and many Bernie people felt it was stolen from him .... but we may never know for sure. But you could learn a lot from watching the various people who showed up to caucus for their favorite candidates and often hear who their 2nd favorite candidates were if they did not get enough to be viable.
Amazingly as we approached the Super Bowl on Sunday there was much talk about how the whole show would go seeing as it was held in Miami and you know all those "Because Miami" news stories on Twitter. People worried on terrorism or Coronavirus or some technological glitch happening. Would the actual game live up to it's expectations? (Yes it did!) and would the Half Time be a huge flop or would they pull it off? Yes, they did.. the two Latin Divas Nailed it swaying their hips, filled with emotion and passion holding most people mesmerized putting on one of the best Super Bowl Halftime Shows of all time. Okay, I'm from Miami and maybe I'm prejudice but I've loved Shakira since she first hit the scene. I studied dance and that includes Bollywood and Belly Dance and she is soo good as a performer. JLO is JLO an Icon who seems to transcend age being 50 years old holding her own up against a 43 year old Shakira celebrating her birthday in front of the world. Come on that's drama. And the game with the QB from Tyler Texas..... showing passion and leading his team from behind to victory!
So I never got around to blogging about the incredible football game Sunday as Monday was a blur for me as I tried to get the song out of my head and then finally gave up. I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the official start of the 2020 Presidential Election and.... well the new fancy App that they many were worried on worked about as badly as the GFS when it shows a major Cat 6 Landfall of a hurricane in Miami for a weak tropical wave rolling off of Africa in July. All of us in the weather world know how models can mess up and how really bad weather apps can be so are we really surprised? Okay, yeah I'm a bit surprised but Iowa has a history of problems. Santorum who actually once won the Iowa caucus despite the fact that they said Romney did and unable to gain any traction on that win ... we didn't find out who won until I believe the South Carolina Caucus and by that time anyone who knows anything about how hurricanes spin knows momentum is important.
It's not the first time Iowa messed up.
Both headlines above were right...
...but on different days.
Remember when.....
Trust me momentum is huge.
Whoever won or did well last night.
Would like that momentum going into NH.
So this seems to be a developing story.
I'm watching TV in the background.
Yes I watch the TV.
While watching the Twitter Feed....
....Twitter of course says "conspiracy"
And there's great GIFS going around.
Life goes on...
CNN broke away to the Coronavirus just now.
MSNBC talking on "the process"
FOX the end of the "impeachment process"
So what can I say that I haven't said? Shakira rocks and perhaps the crew that gave you the Super Bowl without any major problems should have been in charge of the show in Iowa?
As for me I'm going to move on with my day. It's forecast to be 70 degrees in Raleigh and yes I have my sandals ready to use today and the hope for snow in Raleigh is fading into the background as I watch the never ending flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South as snow edges it's way towards Oklahoma after pounding the West that has been pounded all Winter as people in the East insist Winter didn't show up.
As for New Hampshire .... the candidates are showing up there and the show will go on.
Stay safe... wash your hands ;) Always be prepared for severe weather.... Take it one day at a time and know that before this is over I'm sure there will be about odd story that crops up during this interesting Primary Season that collides with Spring Training and moves us day by day closer to predictions on the 2020 Hurricane Season. Seeing as the predictions for this Winter were horrible I'm not rushing to make any predictions but one thing I will remind you is that flow continues and the pattern of systems off the SE Coast continues the way it did during the Hurricane Season of 2019 except it's been winter like storms enhanced with the flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
And the beat goes on.....
Stay tuned.
This is all a developing story in Iowa.
Weather wise... I'm going to enjoy the warm weather.
I've been back in Raleigh getting back into a routine, unpacking, cleaning up, doing laundry and trying to remember where I was before I left. For all the journals I keep I really should have one that says "After Traveling ... Get Back on Track Fast" as every wonderful trip means coming back to the every day routine and research I work on as well as every day routines. I have a trip to Seattle coming up but the date is not set just yet. Miami, Monsey ... am I really back in Raleigh? Yes, and to be honest I like being home in Raleigh these days. The air is cooler and it's easier to breathe yet today we are hovering between "nice ... feels cold" and "why does it feel so raw today?" and I know why it's because rain is moving in and the skies are gray and it's a North Carolina Winter Day when you feel if it's this cold it should snow but the cold front is dry this time so all you get is cold, winter rain.
It's been an odd and interesting winter but so far snow has had a problem finding it's way to the Mid Atlantic or the South while sliding along just North of NYC and attacking New England as to be honest Winter is supposed to do because that way we have small towns covered in snow that look like a Greeting Card promising a Winter Wonderland. When you live South of the Mason Dixie Line you got to be realistic about how much snow you are going to get in any given Winter but still it is NORTH Carolina so the chances are there ... somewhere... sometime...distantly down the road. I have a friend in North Dakota, I miss that friend... should I go visit her? With every week that passes things change subtly and supposedly change is in the air...
To be honest.... the mountains get some snow.
But everyone else got rain.
Speaking of rain in the South.
The set up for the next cold front....
...and abundant tropical moisture.
Is creating a Spring Like Set up...
No it's not Spring...
We haven't had winter yet.
But it's that sort of set up.
Progression of fronts....
...and a flow from the Gulf of Mexico.
Watch the next one down the road..
Being honest I am not 24/7 watching loops.
I watch... I do a model or a two.
I read a bit from people I respect.
Then I try not to obsess.
Not my neck of the woods... I don't care.
Being honest.. weather is locational.
Watching other people get snow is not fun.
Would @icyclone chase a thunderstorm?
Because he's bored and there's no Hurricanes to chase?
Nah... neither would I.
I love it all ...don't get me wrong.
But I want the weather ... I want snow.
I'm less a dreamer or watcher as much as doer.
And if I can't "do" weather today the way I want.
I'm probably doing something else.
I do have hobbies ya know...
As is the earthquake as it's in our Tropical World.
Wrong Earth Science but Mother Nature does her thing.
Luckily we don't have the fires they do in Australia.
Updated 11 PM Tropical Storm & Jerry Still a Tropical storm. Lorenzo Forecast to be a Hurricane Wednesday
11 PM.
Not feeling well...
..can't believe I stayed up for 11 PM.
First off all Jerry still is a Tropical Storm.
Not doing well but talking on Karen tonight.
So that just happened.
NHC Discussion at 11 PM.
Explains odd movement of Karen today.
Video below shows a westward movement ...
...of storms.
There are swirls and centers.
Many said this all afternoon.
Now perhaps they will relocate the center.
Who knows what 5 AM will say.
Going to sleep.
The bottom line is the cone is the same.
Give or take, more or less.
Steering currents collapse at some point.
It's not a well stacked system.
Shear has been a problem.
It moved across PR.
Let's see what it does tomorrow.
Tropical Storms can be more complicated at times to understand than hurricanes. Easy to follow a well developed eye. #Karen & #PuertoRico She lifts North but her associated weather goes in multiple directions. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa has impacted land more often than not. pic.twitter.com/sfVLpqh7dn
There's much talk about what could be.
Interaction between Karen and Jerry.
In truth anything could happen.
But what will is hard to forecast.
Too many intangibles.
But when you hear people talking about Fujiwhara
2 storms circling each other...
....usually the stronger one wins.
That's a huge asterisk on the 5 PM Cone for Jerry.
Lorenzo far away currently..
..so going to talk on Karen.
Here we are currently.
Karen punching up over PR.
They are dealing with life threatening flood risks.
It's not Maria but even Karen can be problematic.
We see in this image below.
Karen is pulling it together.
It's getting more the look of a TS
Than a large messy rain shower.
It's possible a good part of it could...
...slip West of PR
If so that would be a real win for PR.
Similar to Dorian.
But they are getting heavy weather NOW.
The Cone....
Breaking this up into 2 parts.
Looks very clear cut and high confidence.
Sometimes you need to ignore the 5 day part.
But see that shaded area is the 5th day Cone.
People in Miami only see the blue x part.
"oh my God it's headed to Miami..."
In Carolinas they see the Green part.
"Could this bust the ridge and ...."
Let's not forget Bermuda.
And note the yellow X..
Maybe the ridge is strong.
And it slides South slowly.
There are purple question marks ..
...because we aren't sure.
Check out how together those models are
36 hours out...good agreement.
And then the trouble begins.
Looks like a sideways Heart.
It loops.
It stalls.
It slides every which way .....
And I want you to understand this is days from now.
Even the current 5 day forecast is far away.
Saturday evening i'ts not that close to Florida
And it could get there Saturday Night...
..and suddenly change directions.
Or keep going.
I think we should deal with the now.
You know it's there.
Should it intensify and be on the W side.
Prepare accordingly.
This is not Dorian.
Though it's a similar track.
That cannot be ignored.
So I'm more concerned on strength...
...then exact location 7 days out.
A tropical depression hitting SFL meh.. eh...
A Hurricane headed towards Bimini and FLL
That would be worrisome.
There's time to worry on that.......
.....if it's a Hurricane Headed West at 78 West.
Back to the NHC
Discussion is good and honest.
It deals with the now above.
It deals with the 4 to 5 day below
"uncertainty about when and how fast"
Regarding the ridge...
..regarding how Karen responds to the ridge.
the turn to the West...
the 120 Hr position is
a bit further South on this cone.
Being honest there are a lot of young mets and some older ones that love to scream "Landfall" online and spend hours showing you what each model will do and making a good case worthy of a court case for why the Euro is better than the GFS or why the ICON needs to be examined. It's interesting and yeah I enjoy thinking on the possibilities but then in 12 hours they make a new video or a new graphic and often there's a clickbait story telling you that the EAST COAST IS THREATENED BY KAREN ...or JERRY or Humberto or.... well you get the idea.
We need to always be vigilant... always stay on top of fast changes in the tropics and pay attention to trends in models but we need to stay in touch with reality and not start planning what to do because a possible Tropical Storm may threaten your home a week from now. BUT... you GOTTA have a plan always during hurricane season. Always pay attention, be ready to move into action especially as Homegrown Storms pop up often.
But before we are sure what Karen will do it's important to see if Jerry is still there and if so how strong is Jerry, because if old models were fed data that was wrong on Jerry's location and intensity it matters in how the models portray the future.
So let's pray for Puerto Rico not to take such a bad hit and hope Virgin Islands don't get more than they expect the way they did Dorian and let's hope once Karen is up in those warm waters North of PR moving slowly as the ridge puts pressure on it's forward movement that Karen doesn't become more than we bargained for because Karen always seems to surprise us at the wrong moment; Trinidad is an example and PR is getting a stronger storm than it looked like it would get last night.
Check out the NHC at 11 PM and stay tuned...
Taking a break here as I've been under the weather and tired of looping and need some rest. Things change fast in the tropics especially when there are 3 systems relatively close together.
That naked swirl North of Karen is Jerry.
Last night it was battling shear.
Now it's battling to stay alive.
Where would Karen go ...
...if Jerry wasn't an entity?
Maybe same way...
... maybe not.
Stay tuned.
And follow the NHC...
...they are trying hard to get it right.
For all of us.
* * *
From 9 AM...
keep reading if you did not do so.
Thanks
Putting a video here below
..and another at the bottom.
Keep them in mind while reading discussion below.
And keep in mind new models.
Again models are always running.
Always changing.
Never trust one model run....
...unless it's 48 hours out.
Karen...
.... wait this out til it's N of PR.
Take them with lots of salt.
They are pasta....
...you can't eat pasta without sauce.
Or butter or olive oil or salt.
Jerry smashed but not giving up.
Jerry really doesn't want to go out to sea.
But eventually... it should.
That's where Lorenzo come in.
Days from now.
New models above compare with below.
But know... they too will change.
Water vapor really shows the future well. Water vapor loop. Turn sound up Note I said remnants. It’s remnant moisture blown off of Jerry being sheared forcing Jerry to stop. Then he’s trapped. Tropical Drama. Ridge protecting East Coast. Then #Karen hits the ridge. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxapic.twitter.com/RxG9gwkyog
Mimic loop. Turn sound up. It’s not just a pretty lava lamp... #Jerry being stopped in his tracks by dry air (blues, purples) Karen moving N also gets trapped. See the flow West underneath the Dry High? That’s what Models are showing flor Karen https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS Lorenzo... pic.twitter.com/oOnAL1u1uJ
The issue is here that for now the high pressure being constantly reinforced from the North holding the Southeast hostage with summer like weather is trapping anything tropical from moving towards a date with the East Coast. Hopefully that holds in place and if so we lose any chance of landfall, if things change watch out. And that set up doesn't help if anything forms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico and makes a lunge North from a different location. Time will tell as currently nothing has formed there but this time of year it's where we watch for trouble as we move towards October. And, the storms approaching the East Coast begin to get scooped up by cold fronts moving down once the huge, high pressure ridge goes away. That does happen eventually so it's just a matter of days. Lorenzo may help flip that switch and then fronts may begin to sweep down with cooler air again.
It's a dance we do every fall along with buying Pumpkin Spice Lattes and eating Pumpkin Cream Sandwich cookies from Trader Joe's ya know...
I'll update this afternoon. The planes are flying through Karen trying to make sense of her center and associated convection that's moving as one towards Puerto Rico. Maybe they will relocate her or maybe not. Karen is a mystery to all of us. Jerry is trying to regroup, there's parts of Jerry everywhere as Jerry was hit with shear like you can't imagine but loops from last night tell that story. As always Lows go towards Lows and High Pressure blocks Lows that usually turn away but stubborn Jerry stood his ground for hours last night, while Karen got her groove back in the Caribbean. And what does Lorenzo do? Check back later this afternoon!
Oh and oddly PR had a strong earthquake just to the North of it offshore, directly IN the track for Karen so what's up with that? When it rains it pours and the ground quakes? Not normal but happened so mentioning it.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... not saying not to watch them or forget they are there, never ever forget a cyclone is out there as things are fluid in the atmosphere and sometimes shear forecasts do flip flops so watch but don't worry but don't eat all your hurricane supplies just yet... hurricane season isn't over until the end of November.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
