Miami Wins & Puts on Fantastic Super Bowl. Iowa Loses... Bets It on an App That Was Broken. Don't Need a Groundhog to Know it's Spring in the South.

What's that song?

There's got to be a morning after?

Oh Snap... it was a Disaster movie :(

Seriously they knew the App had a problem.

Iowa now has a problem.

Let's never use an App to vote okay??

Ironically everyone claimed victory last night.

The weather wasn't a problem.

Technology was a problem.

This is why I don't want to vote on my phone.

I've heard people say "we could vote by App"

Yeah right...no I don't think so.

As a weather person I get it when models mess up.

Or an App promises snow then ..no snow.

Life goes on...

Winter is in the West....

Spring is in the South.

Much rain is on the way in the SE.

And in the NE the candidates have arrived.

#electronics can be frustrating #IowaCaucuses #apps #weather #sats #sigh. We thought we had problems with badly performing weather models https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS writing ⁦@Shakira⁩ was perfection tho. Great #superbowl pic.twitter.com/YwCW36lVqa

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) February 4, 2020

Don't you just hate when that happens?

You go to your favorite satellite and it's broken.

Or you wait for the results from Iowa and ... broken.

Well at least for us we change satellites.

For candidates they change states.

#TuesdayThoughts on #IowaCaucuses #SuperBowl2020 #weather #severeweather #spring can #summer & #hurricane #season be far behind? https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/TSGl3yjj2i

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) February 4, 2020

Jim Williams always said I should do videos.

Or maybe he said "talk"

He knows how I talk so ...

...okay he's right it's easier.

Once I got past my fear or talking...

... but basically I prefer writing.

And I love satellite imagery.

Look at that image.... that area in the Southeast is RED HOT and filled with severe weather potential and no one really needs a Groundhog to know which way the temperatures are going right now or if Spring is on the way; actually it's Spring in the South currently as flowers are in bloom. Maybe this is a February Thaw? But unless you are out in the Far West.... the winter that never really showed up is about as far away as the real facts of what happened last night in Iowa.

Again let me say I am an Independent. Yes I was raised a Democrat that has often voted Republican or Democratic depending on the election and the candidates ...though I like to party I'm not a party girl anymore. I wait and see how the election evolves and which candidates are left standing and which candidate I believe has the best chance to lead this country as November nears and Hurricane Season slows down. Yes, between now and the next Presidential Election is the 2020 Hurricane Season but for now ...in the slow season.... I go back to one of my first loves and that is politics. So I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the beginning of the real primary season and Oh My Goodness. I've never seen so many professionals paid to speak on air be totally speechless. I sat there last night going back and forth between CNN and MSNBC and oh my goodness. I don't really want to curse on my blog but yeah ...that happened ...

I kept saying during the whole Impeachment Trials "can't we just have an election??" and now I'm thinking ... maybe not. No seriously, as "Mayor Pete" said you could see for yourself what was going on at the Caucus and in my words who was hot and who was not. You could see those enthused about Warren or Amy and the Bernie people were on the floor and Yang Gang insisting they weren't going to vote for anyone but Yang (many then drifted away) and the Biden crowd was extremely thin at some of the venues yet always cheerful people would come around on the next count or the next... No, I don't think that happened. But maybe we will never know for sure and that's sad for the Democratic Party coming off of a horrendous 2016 where it was obvious they tried to skew the election towards their favorite candidate and many Bernie people felt it was stolen from him .... but we may never know for sure. But you could learn a lot from watching the various people who showed up to caucus for their favorite candidates and often hear who their 2nd favorite candidates were if they did not get enough to be viable.

Amazingly as we approached the Super Bowl on Sunday there was much talk about how the whole show would go seeing as it was held in Miami and you know all those "Because Miami" news stories on Twitter. People worried on terrorism or Coronavirus or some technological glitch happening. Would the actual game live up to it's expectations? (Yes it did!) and would the Half Time be a huge flop or would they pull it off? Yes, they did.. the two Latin Divas Nailed it swaying their hips, filled with emotion and passion holding most people mesmerized putting on one of the best Super Bowl Halftime Shows of all time. Okay, I'm from Miami and maybe I'm prejudice but I've loved Shakira since she first hit the scene. I studied dance and that includes Bollywood and Belly Dance and she is soo good as a performer. JLO is JLO an Icon who seems to transcend age being 50 years old holding her own up against a 43 year old Shakira celebrating her birthday in front of the world. Come on that's drama. And the game with the QB from Tyler Texas..... showing passion and leading his team from behind to victory!

So I never got around to blogging about the incredible football game Sunday as Monday was a blur for me as I tried to get the song out of my head and then finally gave up. I looked forward to the Iowa Caucus and the official start of the 2020 Presidential Election and.... well the new fancy App that they many were worried on worked about as badly as the GFS when it shows a major Cat 6 Landfall of a hurricane in Miami for a weak tropical wave rolling off of Africa in July. All of us in the weather world know how models can mess up and how really bad weather apps can be so are we really surprised? Okay, yeah I'm a bit surprised but Iowa has a history of problems. Santorum who actually once won the Iowa caucus despite the fact that they said Romney did and unable to gain any traction on that win ... we didn't find out who won until I believe the South Carolina Caucus and by that time anyone who knows anything about how hurricanes spin knows momentum is important.

It's not the first time Iowa messed up.

Both headlines above were right...

...but on different days.

Remember when.....

Trust me momentum is huge.

Whoever won or did well last night.

Would like that momentum going into NH.

So this seems to be a developing story.

I'm watching TV in the background.

Yes I watch the TV.

While watching the Twitter Feed....

....Twitter of course says "conspiracy" 

And there's great GIFS going around.

Life goes on...

CNN broke away to the Coronavirus just now.

MSNBC talking on "the process"

FOX the end of the "impeachment process"

So what can I say that I haven't said? Shakira rocks and perhaps the crew that gave you the Super Bowl without any major problems should have been in charge of the show in Iowa?

As for me I'm going to move on with my day. It's forecast to be 70 degrees in Raleigh and yes I have my sandals ready to use today and the hope for snow in Raleigh is fading into the background as I watch the never ending flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Deep South as snow edges it's way towards Oklahoma after pounding the West that has been pounded all Winter as people in the East insist Winter didn't show up. 

As for New Hampshire .... the candidates are showing up there and the show will go on.

Stay safe... wash your hands ;) Always be prepared for severe weather.... Take it one day at a time and know that before this is over I'm sure there will be about odd story that crops up during this interesting Primary Season that collides with Spring Training and moves us day by day closer to predictions on the 2020 Hurricane Season. Seeing as the predictions for this Winter were horrible I'm not rushing to make any predictions but one thing I will remind you is that flow continues and the pattern of systems off the SE Coast continues the way it did during the Hurricane Season of 2019 except it's been winter like storms enhanced with the flow from the Gulf of Mexico. 

And the beat goes on..... 

Stay tuned.

This is all a developing story in Iowa.

Weather wise... I'm going to enjoy the warm weather.

Going to Seattle later this month....

...where Winter is still holding on strong.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... my real favorite Shakira song ;)

UPDATED! Alvin Strengthens in the Pacific to HURRICANE ALVIN.. Where's Barry in the Atlantic? June Not Too Soon For Debates and Candidates Surfing For Attention.

As I mentioned earlier today Alvin has strengthening........
...strengthening faster than NHC expected.

Alvin has been upgraded tonight to Hurricane status.

Compare and contrast with earlier today.

The earlier discussion is shown below.

Note it is said it's hard for models to handle small systems.

Alvin isn't that small... 

I know it's the HWRF ....

We have become so weighted to the EURO.. 

and the upgraded GFS (of course... sarcastically said)

But models did show this intensification was possible.

It was obvious this morning this could happen.

But the NHC drew the line at ain't gonna happen.

We know so much on track forecasting today.

But we still lag behind on intensity forecasting.

Something to remember as we move on in the season.

Use the models but adjust in real time ...

...to what is actually happening in real time.

Hope y'all enjoyed the 2nd Debate.

As for African waves....

These waves are getting higher and higher.

They also aren't fizzling when they hit the water.

What happens when the shear slows down as it's forecast to do?

It's a process.... 

Shear weakens.

Water warms up.

Something to take seriously.

2019 Hurricane Season.

Note.... Alvin wasn't taken so seriously.

Alvin exceeded it's early expectations.

The waves leaving Africa are also exceeding expectations.

PS..... Barbara seems to be forming behind Hurricane Alvin.

* * *

There's Alvin a 60 MPH Storm currently.

That's hours ahead of forecast by the way.

Small but mighty.

Living out his moment in the Pacific sun.

Look at that Pacific ITCZ coming alive.

Earthnull shows us Alvin clearly

That intense little circle off of Mexico.

Up close you can see Alvin tightly wound up.

NHC describes him below as TINY

Someone at the NHC is getting way too political there.

They sound today like Trump at that debate.

Marco Rubio has TINY HANDS.

Pretty sure they aren't happy.

But in the end Alvin bites the dust.

Or more so drowns in the cold, windy Pacific.

Barbara is the next name up.

Maybe Barbara is like Tulsi and she surfs?

Of course her name would probably be Barbi if so.

Okay I Googled her.

How could I not?

There's no hurricane in the Atlantic.

And not much new I learned otherwise at the debate.

What amazes me here is this...

She could have been a Victoria's Secret model.

And she went into politics.

That's kind of a win for women.

This is NOT a political endorsement.

It's more a confession.

I Googled her.

Hey I've heard Booker and De Blasio bicker before.

Nothing new there.

I said last night I was watching the debate the way you'd watch interesting waves work their way across the Atlantic. You don't expect them to do much in late June and you don't expect people in debates over a year before the election to really shine out bright enough to remember next June but Tulsi definitely made an impression. Note the fact that there are waves fighting their way West without shriveling up the moment they hit the Atlantic Ocean IS interesting and makes me wonder which one of them will try and be a Dark Horse Wave and develop close in as we move deep into July. 

I also watch Alvin because I'm curious to see how the NHC has handled him other than being nasty and making fun or his small size. Note Alvin is noticeable from outer space so maybe his stronger than expected intensity matters. It matters in that they dismissed models that called for quick intensifying and went with the usual candidates for tropical gold and came up playing with gold dust. 

This morning's discussion forecast points above.

Yesterday's forecast points.

Intensity if usually harder to forecast than position.

Let's move on to Barbara.

See my point here?

It's time women know they can be beautiful and......

........go into science or politics.

Note we have never had a woman director at the NHC.

Oh but one did run one of their libraries.

I'm not much a Women's Lib person.

I'm a who is the best candidate person.

I'm a person who looks at everyone.

Everyone has a story.

Every wave leaving Africa has a story.

Only some make it to a named storm.

Catching the NHC attention is not easy.

Top heavy works better than bottom heavy.

Waves that work out and develop good structure..

...vs those that look great on the bottom.

But don't exist on the top are goners.

Good structure.

Good bones.

Even small good bones get a name.

Like Alvin or the much maligned Beryl.

Remember Beryl?

Small hands Beryl?

Okay being silly today.

But why not?

It's hot.

It's getting hotter.

I'm debating July 4th plans.

Let's have some fun because we can.

Nothing big out there.

That brings us back to Beryl.

I believe Cranky called Beryl a Thunderstorm last year.

Beryl was a July 4th kind of storm.

Written off as too small.

Barely there Beryl.

"Not a sign of a busy season" (oops wrong)

https://time.com/5331664/hurricane-beryl-path-track/

Florence was originally written off as a Fish Storm.

Wrong.

Well no not wrong in that Florence swam and swam.

Florence swam all the way to the Carolinas.

Never count out early strong waves.

Never count out early strong candidates.

Never count out a smart beautiful woman!

I believe a woman can be smart, sexy, beautiful and fun.

But SMART is smart.

Just an observation.

Not a political endorsement.

And not saying Barbara will be bigger than Alvin.

But could happen.

As for the Atlantic we are on the B name.

Where's Barry?

If history repeats it's a weak early storm.

And the name lives for another season.

Maybe.

Let's look back at 2007.

Tropical Storm Barry.

In 2013 Barry was an early BOC system.

Tropics today........

The water is warm near the Yucatan.

It's very warm near the Florida Keys.

High pressure to the North......

...often opens a door to low pressure to the South of the High.

Keep watching as we move into July.

As for me going to be listening to Senorita today.

Over and over because I like it.

And Camilla is a smart, talented, beautiful woman.

Those things can go together.

Time for a smart, beautiful woman to believe....

..she can be the Director of the NHC.

Something to think on...

He landed in Miami......

The air was hot from summer rain.

Truth in those lyrics.

Close in development could happen early.

And waves could develop early.

But it depends on so many variables.

Only big question now is?

What happens next?

Besos BobbiStorm @bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram...follow me there for real time updates.

Ps.......  

Winter is BACK.... And Mean and Cold and Cat 5 Wind Chills. Some thoughts on Weather and General Hospital & Social Media

I'm back from my trip to New York. Someone in the family had surgery and they are doing well and I went in to be there for moral support and to show my love. While there I saw a few family members and did some ice cold sightseeing in the Pomona Height's area. This picture is an icy waterfall as snow up on the ledge was melting, falling into the cracks, freezing, melting, freezing and covering the plants in small icicles. It was beautiful, it was freezing cold. We drove by and I saw out of the corner of my eye what looked like a crystal plant and then realized it was covered in ice (Miami girl here...) so we drove back and the daughter that liked to chase storms with me was chasing winter views and pictures. No we didn't get out and examine it, it was freezing.

The things you see that you don't expect to see.

In the sunlight it was crystal bright.

Tonight winter is back and in charge again.

In Minnesota to Ohio it's frigid.

This dives down to the South.

It's 61 degrees in Hollywood Florida...

...going down to 49 degrees.

Okay it's warmer than Detroit!

And we aren't even talking on the wind chills.

Here's the link to use tonight and tomorrow.

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

If you live "up there" beware it's dangerously cold.

I know there has been a lot of hype......

To be honest people need advice not hype.

Please read it explains "wind chills"

https://www.weather.gov/bou/windchill

Detroit is NOT St. Paul Minnesota!

That's -20 degrees.

Wind Chill -47 degrees.

I cannot even wrap my head around it.

It gets below 47 degrees and I get cold.

The truth is winter comes and goes and this is normal. It gets cold early, it warms up and then winter comes back like that friend you didn't expect to show back up on your doorstep or bad sushi salad! It comes back. And often when it's been unusually warm it SNAPS BACK big time. In this case it is due to warm up in many places in a few days so that's good news. People outside not dressed properly could easily die when it's this cold. That includes animals and all living things. This is one of those times when the hype is for real, but it's really for those places where the wind chills are near zero or below. Yet I know people in West Palm Beach terrified of this winter's sudden Arctic Dive who are panicking. We are the world, social media makes us all feel closer and it's not gonna be 20 degrees or feel like it in Miami but it still will feel colder than you are used to so .... so proceed accordingly. 

Note how far the freeze line goes.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Lot's of sites up there on that site above.

Most of the USA is below the freeze line.

Will see tomorrow how we survive this winter weather.

And I hope and pray people do take it seriously.

And then what?

Is this the start of something big?

A new pattern?

Or an anomaly and it warms up.

In the Carolinas snow is often promised...

...but you can rely that the rains will come.

South Florida has had a rainy, wet winter.

New York City people feel snowless..

...though they have been dusted with snow.

In the midwest they can't get rid of it.

Europe was buried under it.

And in a month or so the tulips will push up...

Spring will be upon us.

A lady in the market today said "I"m waiting for Spring"

Aren't we all?

That's the nature of the seasons....

We want them to come faster and then......

....we start praying on the next season to come fast.

Life goes on.

As for me I have been in a sort of news, weather and sports black out as where I was staying the wifi was a weak signal, my phone service went from full service to no service for no apparent reason and I was on the move often. I watched the last winter storm come rolling through into Brooklyn from the Verrazano Bridge that swayed a bit in the wind while tropical like rain came at us sidewards. Then from a tall building in Brooklyn I saw the sun come out and light up the New York City skyline. Far off on the horizon the city shone under a silver sky, through the raindrops and next to a beautiful rainbow. 

On Friday we went shopping and I caught this picture.

Winter cold and mountains in the distance.

And tonight they are blanketed in snow.

Stay warm under your blankets.

I have a special satin blanket that's warm.

Well it keeps me warm I leave it on top of the covers.

What do you do to stay warm?

Drink soup?

Sip tea?

Warning

Non - Weather related rant

Social Media

General Hospital

GFS vs EURO

Oh Lord.... stop fighting!

Now I'm back home, under the covers watching a show on my TV on my cable that my young Millenials don't use as they do HULU and NetFlix and YouTube usually. While away I follow what happens in the world on Twitter. I also missed General Hospital  which is fun to watch and have on while putting together dinner. So while away I follow what's going on in Twitter, just easier to retrieve news and follow. Got to tell you if you think Weather Twitter is bad, oh my gosh you haven't seen anything. So many haters... People holding on to obsessions on characters no longer on the show who they want them to bring back and I mean "NOW!!" showing old clips of their favorite scenes. They love Franco or hate Franco (I like him and yes I followed the actor on One Life to Live) and I don't mean just hate I mean long, long diatribes worse than arguing about Trump and Pelosi and Hilary. There is more of a Soap Opera on General Hospital Twitter than on the show and they have strong feelings about the writers who they all seem to know by name, some guy name Frank and they seem to feel someone is trying to destroy the show (oh no) and oh gosh worse than arguing over the EURO and the GFS model. I missed the big Jasam reunion which doesn't upset me much as I preferred Drew and Sam to Jason and Sam. Let's get real Sam could never totally commit to Jason and Jason always ran off to save Carly and Sonny. Drew loved Sam, brought out something soft and beautiful in her while she remained tough. This is what I don't understand about GH...they spent years building up Drew and Sam into this beautiful couple who loved each other greatly and then they ripped it away bringing back stone cold Jason and I don't get it. I watch.... I watch when I can but I don't understand. I like the Peter guy (maybe it's the name) and I don't get so emotionally involved. I don't say hateful things and attack the writers, producers and actors personally.  

And the reason I bring this up is it makes me wonder what goes on in this world? Every person who has a Weather App or can watch a satellite loop thinks they are an expert meteorologist and student mets think they are all the next Jim Cantore and everyone thinks they know what will happen next and if it will snow in Cincinnati and they argue when someone (a well known reliable meteorologist) says something they don't like on Twitter such as "it probably won't snow" which basically is "OH NO!!!" an insult that in the old days someone would result in a duel at sunset by the cold river. 

Social media is wonderful and fun and I've been around since the early days of AOL and the Weather Message Boards but come on people get a grip! It's not the total end of the world and the guy who plays Franco is a great actor, focus on some other character and stop begging for Anna and Duke to get back together (he was never worthy of her anyway) and stop making Laura into the next matronly Monica who can be grandmother and matriarch of the family, she may be mayor but she's a bit boring like this... give her something fun to do. Stop threatening mets who take away your snow and by the way Mother Nature is the problem not some met who reads the models correctly and won't promise you it's gonna snow just to get likes on Twitter (rolling eyes) and if you got a problem with the Government Shut Down or Truce... force the congress people to show up in DC because the place looked like a Ghost Town on Monday when we sailed through as if the city was closed; I checked Twitter to make sure there wasn't an alien invasion somewhere or a terror attack. Obviously no one is really working in DC just yet, waiting for the Super Bowl to be over and go back to digging into their boots and saying "NO!!" the way my grandson does when you offer him chicken!

Social media can be the best thing that ever happen or the worst. Be part of the solution not the problem. 

Stay warm, before you know it I'll be posting on the tropics and Spring will have burst through everywhere in the Northern hemisphere and life goes on as my friend is prone to saying (yeah I know you say that) and enjoy the music.

In a world before HULU and NetFlix and YouTube and the EURO model and the GFS model and in a world where only friends argued if Luke and Laura should be a Super Couple because well he raped her before they became lovers and Franco had a brain tumor removed and he's not the character he played on One Life to Live anymore.... 

Good to be home, at least for this week anyway.

Besos BobbiStorm

Dreaming of Tropical Dreams on a cold night in the Carolinas

Ps Life does go on after our first loves (tho Laura was married to Scotty before Luke so maybe Luke was her second love but I digress) and whether Anna is with Robert or Duke (he died, really) or her new love who she is cute with .. life goes on. She was really young back then.... so let's look back on Laura and Luke way before we had great weather models we could argue about.

And when it comes to Anna... that actress can dance.

See she can dance with anyone....

But......before life at General Hospital she was in one of the most iconic movies ever

Keep on dancing.........   but leave that Frank guy alone on General Hospital and stop fighting!

:)