Updated!! Tropics on Friday Going into A Summer Weekend. 96L Chances Being Lowered Day By Day. Some Models Tho Won't Let Go... X95L Flaring up as it Merges with the Front. Pets and Hurricanes. Bobbi Bought a Beta .... Pray for It!

8 PM Update.
Rain with thunder in Raleigh.
Seriously I know you want to know about 96L
Still there.

In the 2 day low expectations.
In the 5 day still expecting it could develop.



Note the moisture feed from X95L is amping up the SE rain.



So the rain in Raleigh was tropically topical.
And wow convection by PR but not 96L...
96L has developed two small orange eyes.

It's something........

I'll update Saturday evening.


As of earlier today
If you didn't read please keep reading...

96L is still there.
But not expected to be a hurricane down the road.
Things can change.
But today it's trying to hang onto Invest status.
Friday Afternoon it had 40% chances ...

Before going forward I want to backtrack a bit to yesterday when I wrote about the trouble with long term models regarding tropical waves that haven't developed, yet models develop them pushing the buttons for more careful surveillance. I pointed out that despite it looking like a healthy wave it was moving into an area where shear seemed strong and it seemed a disconnect with the models that were Gung Ho and possibly is why the EURO was slow to go on board the 96L Express.  You can go back to yesterday's blog and scroll way down but I made a screenshot for you to make it easier.  Note there's a red river of shear there that 96L would have to transverse to get to where it was supposed to blow up into a hurricane.

Bottom image shows gold and orange.

Shear there.

And the High being very strong as shown below...

...in Cranky's excellent illustration.

Made me wonder on the problem.

Sometimes in the right spot....

A wave can become ventilated and intensify.

But how it does so with that sort of pressure...

high pressure riding it the whole way.

Then it has to cross shear?

To be fair it wasn't just the GFS.

Other models intensified it.

To add to this quandary ...

Normally models begin to lose a wave ...

...if conditions are poor and it's bound to unravel.

Yet even today some models take it to TS status.

While none are screaming hurricane.

They are still suggesting Tropical Storm.

That could change later today.

Models change in real time...

Models are not crystal balls.

They are not psychics.

They take data (that changes in real time)

And they offer solutions.

So where are we currently?

Friday Afternoon.

NHC sticks with 40% in 5 days for 96L

And when they say the next 5 days.

I believe they mean on day 4 going into 5.

Conditions currently hostile.

Shear is there as explained below.

A huge high pressing down on it... 

...giving it little breathing room.

Not looking good.

By the way 95L was written off the soap opera.

It's still kicking up more actual weather than 96L.

But it's future chance of winning an Emmy are gone.

Go figure it has all the convection 96L is lacking.

But the models hate it.

The front ate it.

Fronts in August.

Hmnnn......

Note 96L was briefly on a leash to the area to it's NW

Sometimes this gets interesting.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+

shtml/021058_MIATWDAT.shtml?

The link above is to Tropical Atlantic Discussion put out by the NHC. If you ever wonder what those odd areas are that no one is talking about you use this link and it familiarizes you with the coming and going of different characters on our tropical soap opera. Seriously this time of year it feels like a fledgling soap trying to gain an audience, but by the end of August it ramps up to Sweeps Week and if you ever watched General Hospital or One Life to Live (may it rest in peace if no one can bring it back...) you totally understand this example. 

Our usual characters are shown below.

More will be introduced soon off of Africa.

And possibly closer in .....

...because things to pop up often known as home grown.

Center stage the white blue bits of clouds is 96L

So the question is when it gets to near the islands.

Where that ball of convection is...

Will it come to life as some models suggest?

That's the question on the table today.

Meanwhile note the convection over Florida is firing up.

And it's merging with a frontal trough of sorts.

That's been the pattern this season.

It's just rain today.

Down the road it could be a hurricane.

Picture some hurricane down in the Caribbean.

Down near Cuba or the Yucatan.

Being pulled North by an approaching front.

A cross between Wilma and Sandy.

Could happen.

So don't write off this season because it's quiet.

It's usually quiet until around August 12th...

Mid August things look better.

August 24th through the 26th usually it comes alive.

Every year is different depending on the set up.

Meanwhile the NHC will follow the models.

They will introduce Invests.

When there is an Invest I'll cover it more.

I'm known as "not a model hugger"

I like them.... I just wouldn't marry them yet.

They are exciting and stimulating.

Kind of like a hyper, cute terrier or poodle.

My mother had a poodle once.

My boyfriend' hated it.

My friends thought it was eccentric.

My friends were right.

My mother was proud it had a pedigree...

Some of these waves roll off Africa with a pedigree.

Good looks, convection, nice bones.

And then they meet the huge High.

SAL.

We will talk about King Tutt on Sunday...

And a cute mutt often steals the show close in.

You know like that pooch you found on a cold night.

Lost by the railroad tracks near the house.

That mutt becomes your best friend.

So much for a pedigree.

So much for models.

If you have a pet.

You need to figure it into your hurricane plans.

Pet Supermarket has a good guide.

 https://www.wjhg.com/video?vid=513432832

I'll be back on Sunday.

Nothing is expected to develop before then.

Watch your local weather.

Summer storms pop up fast.

Flash flooding happens.

Stay tuned.

Have a great weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... I bought a Beta... pray for it.

Yes... Bobbi bought a beta...  been a while.

I'm not great with them and haven't had one in a while.

It's reddish. just pray...

Winter is BACK.... And Mean and Cold and Cat 5 Wind Chills. Some thoughts on Weather and General Hospital & Social Media

I'm back from my trip to New York. Someone in the family had surgery and they are doing well and I went in to be there for moral support and to show my love. While there I saw a few family members and did some ice cold sightseeing in the Pomona Height's area. This picture is an icy waterfall as snow up on the ledge was melting, falling into the cracks, freezing, melting, freezing and covering the plants in small icicles. It was beautiful, it was freezing cold. We drove by and I saw out of the corner of my eye what looked like a crystal plant and then realized it was covered in ice (Miami girl here...) so we drove back and the daughter that liked to chase storms with me was chasing winter views and pictures. No we didn't get out and examine it, it was freezing.

The things you see that you don't expect to see.

In the sunlight it was crystal bright.

Tonight winter is back and in charge again.

In Minnesota to Ohio it's frigid.

This dives down to the South.

It's 61 degrees in Hollywood Florida...

...going down to 49 degrees.

Okay it's warmer than Detroit!

And we aren't even talking on the wind chills.

Here's the link to use tonight and tomorrow.

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

If you live "up there" beware it's dangerously cold.

I know there has been a lot of hype......

To be honest people need advice not hype.

Please read it explains "wind chills"

https://www.weather.gov/bou/windchill

Detroit is NOT St. Paul Minnesota!

That's -20 degrees.

Wind Chill -47 degrees.

I cannot even wrap my head around it.

It gets below 47 degrees and I get cold.

The truth is winter comes and goes and this is normal. It gets cold early, it warms up and then winter comes back like that friend you didn't expect to show back up on your doorstep or bad sushi salad! It comes back. And often when it's been unusually warm it SNAPS BACK big time. In this case it is due to warm up in many places in a few days so that's good news. People outside not dressed properly could easily die when it's this cold. That includes animals and all living things. This is one of those times when the hype is for real, but it's really for those places where the wind chills are near zero or below. Yet I know people in West Palm Beach terrified of this winter's sudden Arctic Dive who are panicking. We are the world, social media makes us all feel closer and it's not gonna be 20 degrees or feel like it in Miami but it still will feel colder than you are used to so .... so proceed accordingly. 

Note how far the freeze line goes.

www.spaghettimodels.com

Lot's of sites up there on that site above.

Most of the USA is below the freeze line.

Will see tomorrow how we survive this winter weather.

And I hope and pray people do take it seriously.

And then what?

Is this the start of something big?

A new pattern?

Or an anomaly and it warms up.

In the Carolinas snow is often promised...

...but you can rely that the rains will come.

South Florida has had a rainy, wet winter.

New York City people feel snowless..

...though they have been dusted with snow.

In the midwest they can't get rid of it.

Europe was buried under it.

And in a month or so the tulips will push up...

Spring will be upon us.

A lady in the market today said "I"m waiting for Spring"

Aren't we all?

That's the nature of the seasons....

We want them to come faster and then......

....we start praying on the next season to come fast.

Life goes on.

As for me I have been in a sort of news, weather and sports black out as where I was staying the wifi was a weak signal, my phone service went from full service to no service for no apparent reason and I was on the move often. I watched the last winter storm come rolling through into Brooklyn from the Verrazano Bridge that swayed a bit in the wind while tropical like rain came at us sidewards. Then from a tall building in Brooklyn I saw the sun come out and light up the New York City skyline. Far off on the horizon the city shone under a silver sky, through the raindrops and next to a beautiful rainbow. 

On Friday we went shopping and I caught this picture.

Winter cold and mountains in the distance.

And tonight they are blanketed in snow.

Stay warm under your blankets.

I have a special satin blanket that's warm.

Well it keeps me warm I leave it on top of the covers.

What do you do to stay warm?

Drink soup?

Sip tea?

Warning

Non - Weather related rant

Social Media

General Hospital

GFS vs EURO

Oh Lord.... stop fighting!

Now I'm back home, under the covers watching a show on my TV on my cable that my young Millenials don't use as they do HULU and NetFlix and YouTube usually. While away I follow what happens in the world on Twitter. I also missed General Hospital  which is fun to watch and have on while putting together dinner. So while away I follow what's going on in Twitter, just easier to retrieve news and follow. Got to tell you if you think Weather Twitter is bad, oh my gosh you haven't seen anything. So many haters... People holding on to obsessions on characters no longer on the show who they want them to bring back and I mean "NOW!!" showing old clips of their favorite scenes. They love Franco or hate Franco (I like him and yes I followed the actor on One Life to Live) and I don't mean just hate I mean long, long diatribes worse than arguing about Trump and Pelosi and Hilary. There is more of a Soap Opera on General Hospital Twitter than on the show and they have strong feelings about the writers who they all seem to know by name, some guy name Frank and they seem to feel someone is trying to destroy the show (oh no) and oh gosh worse than arguing over the EURO and the GFS model. I missed the big Jasam reunion which doesn't upset me much as I preferred Drew and Sam to Jason and Sam. Let's get real Sam could never totally commit to Jason and Jason always ran off to save Carly and Sonny. Drew loved Sam, brought out something soft and beautiful in her while she remained tough. This is what I don't understand about GH...they spent years building up Drew and Sam into this beautiful couple who loved each other greatly and then they ripped it away bringing back stone cold Jason and I don't get it. I watch.... I watch when I can but I don't understand. I like the Peter guy (maybe it's the name) and I don't get so emotionally involved. I don't say hateful things and attack the writers, producers and actors personally.  

And the reason I bring this up is it makes me wonder what goes on in this world? Every person who has a Weather App or can watch a satellite loop thinks they are an expert meteorologist and student mets think they are all the next Jim Cantore and everyone thinks they know what will happen next and if it will snow in Cincinnati and they argue when someone (a well known reliable meteorologist) says something they don't like on Twitter such as "it probably won't snow" which basically is "OH NO!!!" an insult that in the old days someone would result in a duel at sunset by the cold river. 

Social media is wonderful and fun and I've been around since the early days of AOL and the Weather Message Boards but come on people get a grip! It's not the total end of the world and the guy who plays Franco is a great actor, focus on some other character and stop begging for Anna and Duke to get back together (he was never worthy of her anyway) and stop making Laura into the next matronly Monica who can be grandmother and matriarch of the family, she may be mayor but she's a bit boring like this... give her something fun to do. Stop threatening mets who take away your snow and by the way Mother Nature is the problem not some met who reads the models correctly and won't promise you it's gonna snow just to get likes on Twitter (rolling eyes) and if you got a problem with the Government Shut Down or Truce... force the congress people to show up in DC because the place looked like a Ghost Town on Monday when we sailed through as if the city was closed; I checked Twitter to make sure there wasn't an alien invasion somewhere or a terror attack. Obviously no one is really working in DC just yet, waiting for the Super Bowl to be over and go back to digging into their boots and saying "NO!!" the way my grandson does when you offer him chicken!

Social media can be the best thing that ever happen or the worst. Be part of the solution not the problem. 

Stay warm, before you know it I'll be posting on the tropics and Spring will have burst through everywhere in the Northern hemisphere and life goes on as my friend is prone to saying (yeah I know you say that) and enjoy the music.

In a world before HULU and NetFlix and YouTube and the EURO model and the GFS model and in a world where only friends argued if Luke and Laura should be a Super Couple because well he raped her before they became lovers and Franco had a brain tumor removed and he's not the character he played on One Life to Live anymore.... 

Good to be home, at least for this week anyway.

Besos BobbiStorm

Dreaming of Tropical Dreams on a cold night in the Carolinas

Ps Life does go on after our first loves (tho Laura was married to Scotty before Luke so maybe Luke was her second love but I digress) and whether Anna is with Robert or Duke (he died, really) or her new love who she is cute with .. life goes on. She was really young back then.... so let's look back on Laura and Luke way before we had great weather models we could argue about.

And when it comes to Anna... that actress can dance.

See she can dance with anyone....

But......before life at General Hospital she was in one of the most iconic movies ever

Keep on dancing.........   but leave that Frank guy alone on General Hospital and stop fighting!

:)

Updated! Quiet Tropical Weekend? Surprises in Store Along SE Coast? BOC? Worries on the Eclipse & RAIN in NOLA...Charleston ... Narcissistic Tropical Wave... Tropics IFFY Today While Franklin Spins in Pacific As Jova.

Quick update Friday evening.

Again it's there way of saying "we see it"

There is still a floater up for the Florida Low.
But in the realm of "you can't make this up"
It is an "invest" without a number.
Just an "invest"
At least they didn't spell a number out again........
Maybe make it Invest $ for not really an Invest?
Hey you can Hashtag anything

We have a cold front that is moving across the country towards the Southeast. Currently, the models show it stalling out on Sunday and heavy rain could be a problem in many places across the South. Add into this rainy mix is the unnamed Invest along the Florida coastline. The No Name Invest is moving up towards the frontal boundary and this could...  I said could...create a flooding mess for places such as Charleston and New Orleans that has an ongoing problems as their pump system is not currently doing well. You can google it easy if you haven't heard, but just no words. 

See the weather forecast for this up coming week in both places.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-orleans-on-edge-as-city-scrambles-to-fix-pumping-system/2017/08/11/46cf379e-7e66-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_story.html?utm_term=.9ccc94952fd3

Not good for New Orleans.

They better get those pumps up and running.

The link for the 7 day forecast is below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Just seems someone is off... something is off...

As I have heard that the Low will get picked up by the front.

I don't see the front moving anywhere.

Let's worry on this tomorrow.

As for now it's an Unnamed Invest.

As for Invest 99L... 

It's out there doing it's thing 

If you have not already read my thoughts please keep reading.

Such a drama queen... energy vampire.

So many days of watching it ..

So what else can we talk about?

As we are within the 10 day range of the eclipse.

And the models do go out that far...

It's worth noting the GFS (of course) develops a wave.

Another Invest 99L sort of wave.

Now you see me, now you don't.

And it ends up on the day of the eclipse near Florida.

You can see the image below.

LONG RANGE MODEL...

IT WILL CHANGE...

But people keep asking me so I posted it.

More interesting the Euro doesn't see it  (big surprise)

But it does weakly develop 99L

More interesting a quick BOC system again.

See the image below. Loop the loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

So I wonder could Gert form really close in?

While everyone is watching Invest 99L again?

I'll discuss 99L and anything else Saturday Night...

For all of your tropical addiction go to Spaghetti Models..

http://spaghettimodels.com/

The images above are from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Remember a model shows a pattern. It shows an idea... Over time the idea gets more in focus. Often timing is off. A model today can say a system will be in the Bahamas on August 21st and tomorrow it can show it just off shore Hilton Head on the 21st and then tomorrow night it can show it going into the Islands. Long range modeling is not a science. And models change in real time as the Euro was all bullish on 99L and now it's like "okay something will develop, yeah that's it... maybe a tropical storm, time will tell" so for now it's like the song... Hang on 99L hang on... the forecasters are still in love with you...

;)

As the tropics turn... 

It's pretty clear out there all the way to Africa.

The Caribbean has convectional clutter but nothing more.

Looking closer in you can see off the SE coast an area of interest.

That is not to be confused with an Invest.

It's just interesting. 

Interesting enough to get a yellow X

10% forever and ever.

If they change that raise your eye brows...
It needs an Invest. It has a floater shown below.
It should have an Invest.
It's more important right now than 99L

It's literally, partially over the coast.

Playing at the beach.

Headed up the coast for more beaches.

Currently there is no yellow area in the GOM.

Just off the FL - SE Coast.

I know very Julia Returns like...

We can talk on the Orange later.. or not.

Looking at the loop of the Gulf of Mexico below:

You see the trof that's lingering over Florida?

Off the coast is the area of interest near St. Augustine, FL

Down between Tampa and the Florida Keys is another part of it.

It's one huge messy stalled out area...

..amid weak steering currents.

So watch it for any home grown problems.

You know what home grown means right?

Noisy neighbors who party often.

Stay tuned. Keep watching. It's interesting.

Part of it crossed South Florida.

Another part continued on towards the Carolinas.

Now comes to the double 9 invest area that I don't want to talk about.

Ever date some guy or girl who likes to talk and flirt endlessly.

Note the definiton above.

Okay let's put it this way. If this Invest was a person it could be accused of having a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It has sucked up the energy and time of the forecasters at the NHC and the many meteorologists online. I mean it started posting selfies before it left Africa. It got a screen name that uses the word "the" before it's name as in "theInvest99" and that's always something to stop and think on. It hands out business cards to everyone it meets, including the tow truck driver, the uber driver and the girl who it has been flirting with online for the last ten years online. Every time you pull away and try not to watch it sucks you back in with some complicated, convoluted story that compels you to watch it again. You tell yourself you won't. You refuse to check the satellite imagery. Invest 90L came along and it was practically ignored because Invest 99L had so much drama going on... Invest 99L bought tons of roses and sent them out to forecasters in far away cities and went on Snapchat and Instagram and it actually for a while tried to get a billboard in Time Square with it's name on it but then decided perhaps not. 

The models invested so much time caught up with Invest 99L they didn't even see Franklin forming until it got it's own cone. And no matter how good Hurricane Franklin looked or how impressive it was Invest 99L out in the Atlatnic for what seems now like a month keeps throwing out little cookies and sending online kisses to impress the storm chasers. Now being a storm chaser you are really vulnerable to narcissistic waves that like to keep you on a chain so they can suck you back in the moment you watch another Invest. In fact, it sucked in a perfectly nice Upper Level Low and the ULL has not been able to stop playing with 99L yet. It's time to stop and breathe and stop obsessing on this self absorbed, attention seeking Invest and move on. Get a life. I'd say wait until it's invest goes red but hey it was red coming off of Africa. It sent public officials in the Cabo Verde Islands a box of chocolate covered cherries. Seriously I don't want to talk about this anymore until it gets a name. It's sucking moisture out of the Caribbean (which is usually dry and never interested) and reaching out now to the area off of South Florida that can't get an Invest number despite being ON THE COAST like Julia last year. Why? Because we can't let go... we want to know what happened to the Prom King from Cabo Verde that graduated from Africa what seems like weeks ago. Let it go...

Look at it out there taking up a good part of the Atlantic, doing nothing yet it still has a 50% chance of forming according to the NHC somewhere between where it is now and Maine and models say it's a Fish Storm but we are still watching it. Seriously it's time to stop watching 99L and (no I am not trying reverse psychology here) and get a life and if it shows up then deal with it after it has a real name and a cone. It's there, we know it's there it's got it's names up in lights and a line in Vegas. Why do we do this? Because everyone likes a bad boy with an edge or a girl who is hard and exotic like the Girl From Impanema. And you know why everyone watches the girl from Impanema? Because she moves so slow and sexy ... Do you have any idea how long it took that girl to put on that much make up, do her hair and find the perfect bathing suit to catch your attention? 

Why do people buy romance novels with perfectly sweet nice heroines who fall in love with a sexy, handsome man wearing a cape named "THE DUKE OF ORLEANS" who wants to to devour them while on their way to rob her uncle who supports her and well ... they are called Bodice Rippers for a reason. Luke loved Laura, Luke raped Laura and we kept falling in love with Luke and Laura despite the rape which had a really good sound track and a lot of rationalization that she really wanted it. I can't hear Herb Albert to this day without thinking of that dance scene. It was the 1980s... not much changes trust me. So seems 99L has it's own sound track and we are still trying to learn how to dance with it... which by the way the Upper Level Low learned how to do and now 99L has it's sites on the poor little area of interest off the coast of Florida. 

Nuff said.

As for Franklin he is gone.

Bound to be Jova in the Epac.

Sarcastically said.. he's going to Hawaii...

Maybe Guam. 

Perhaps he has his eye on Vietnam?

He's really a sure bet to get a name anywhere.

Yet he will never be Invest 99L...

NHC gives it 90% in the Epac.

I mean it crossed Mexico and barely missed a beat.

Impressive.

It's August 11th and we are more than two thirds done with summer and on the way to Fall. Fall means football and hurricanes and back to school. For some around the country the kids have already gone back to school as Labor Day no longer tends to be the last weekend of summer before school. But will Labor Day bring us hurricanes this year? Possibly. But for now the main point here is to get out and enjoy yourselves weather permitting. In the Southeast there may be some heavy rain and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico you'll be lucky if you don't get any rain.

I went out last night for drinks on a rooftop bar in Raleigh and sat outside. The sunset actually cooperated. The temperatures are moderating. It was a sports bar, we watched football. Life is good. There is so much going on in the world today that you got to take a few minutes to enjoy what you got while you got it. In the tenuous crazy times we live in it's good to smell the roses in the neighbor's yard, go to the ocean or the mountains or your favorite restaurant and actually get a drink and watch a football game. Listen to the music, dance and be happy for what you got without thinking on what you thought you wanted when that wave rolled off of Africa. It's just the way we are... as storm chasers, trackers and forecasters we all want a really good Cabo Verde Wave that turns into a Hurricane and...

Go to the mall and get a good cup of Starbucks or Caribou or whatever rocks your boat.

I'll be back when there is something to update on and I am NOT updating on 99L if it gets a red circle with 70% chances of forming. Maybe if it's about to be upgraded to a named storm. I'll admit I wanted to go chase it somewhere in the Outer Banks or maybe Wrightsville or really Morehead City but it's not even late August there will be more where that one came from and hopefully one with less talk and more action.

Besos BobbiStorm.

Ps..if you liked my analogy check this video out...or others. I came across it a while back..while trying to figure out where my Great Great Grandfather came from which is hard to do as he came from Russia originally (though it may have be Poland, Romania or Lithuania now days) and he had a penchant for changing names which I suppose I may have gotten from him. So Woolfe or Wolf or Wolfe or Velvel or Zev and not sure he didn't use William Abrams is a slippery moving target on Ancestry. But he did live out his life in Tampa watching thunderstorms out over Tampa Bay after living in Key West for a long time in the 1880s where he was naturalized. I guess I got those weather watching genes from him. Maybe if he was alive today he'd be WolfCane online. Just a thought. This picture is in books about Key West history but it was in my grandma's picture album as well... as her father Wolf with her two brothers on the docks of Key West. Notice he's dressed a bit nicer than the people on the dock. A mystery and that is why mysteries consume us because there's nothing sexier than a little mystery.



She's good... very good.  She makes good, valid points!