Updated! Quiet Tropical Weekend? Surprises in Store Along SE Coast? BOC? Worries on the Eclipse & RAIN in NOLA...Charleston ... Narcissistic Tropical Wave... Tropics IFFY Today While Franklin Spins in Pacific As Jova.

Quick update Friday evening.

Again it's there way of saying "we see it"

There is still a floater up for the Florida Low.
But in the realm of "you can't make this up"
It is an "invest" without a number.
Just an "invest"
At least they didn't spell a number out again........
Maybe make it Invest $ for not really an Invest?
Hey you can Hashtag anything

We have a cold front that is moving across the country towards the Southeast. Currently, the models show it stalling out on Sunday and heavy rain could be a problem in many places across the South. Add into this rainy mix is the unnamed Invest along the Florida coastline. The No Name Invest is moving up towards the frontal boundary and this could...  I said could...create a flooding mess for places such as Charleston and New Orleans that has an ongoing problems as their pump system is not currently doing well. You can google it easy if you haven't heard, but just no words. 

See the weather forecast for this up coming week in both places.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/new-orleans-on-edge-as-city-scrambles-to-fix-pumping-system/2017/08/11/46cf379e-7e66-11e7-b2b1-aeba62854dfa_story.html?utm_term=.9ccc94952fd3

Not good for New Orleans.

They better get those pumps up and running.

The link for the 7 day forecast is below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Just seems someone is off... something is off...

As I have heard that the Low will get picked up by the front.

I don't see the front moving anywhere.

Let's worry on this tomorrow.

As for now it's an Unnamed Invest.

As for Invest 99L... 

It's out there doing it's thing 

If you have not already read my thoughts please keep reading.

Such a drama queen... energy vampire.

So many days of watching it ..

So what else can we talk about?

As we are within the 10 day range of the eclipse.

And the models do go out that far...

It's worth noting the GFS (of course) develops a wave.

Another Invest 99L sort of wave.

Now you see me, now you don't.

And it ends up on the day of the eclipse near Florida.

You can see the image below.

LONG RANGE MODEL...

IT WILL CHANGE...

But people keep asking me so I posted it.

More interesting the Euro doesn't see it  (big surprise)

But it does weakly develop 99L

More interesting a quick BOC system again.

See the image below. Loop the loop.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

So I wonder could Gert form really close in?

While everyone is watching Invest 99L again?

I'll discuss 99L and anything else Saturday Night...

For all of your tropical addiction go to Spaghetti Models..

http://spaghettimodels.com/

The images above are from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Remember a model shows a pattern. It shows an idea... Over time the idea gets more in focus. Often timing is off. A model today can say a system will be in the Bahamas on August 21st and tomorrow it can show it just off shore Hilton Head on the 21st and then tomorrow night it can show it going into the Islands. Long range modeling is not a science. And models change in real time as the Euro was all bullish on 99L and now it's like "okay something will develop, yeah that's it... maybe a tropical storm, time will tell" so for now it's like the song... Hang on 99L hang on... the forecasters are still in love with you...

;)

As the tropics turn... 

It's pretty clear out there all the way to Africa.

The Caribbean has convectional clutter but nothing more.

Looking closer in you can see off the SE coast an area of interest.

That is not to be confused with an Invest.

It's just interesting. 

Interesting enough to get a yellow X

10% forever and ever.

If they change that raise your eye brows...
It needs an Invest. It has a floater shown below.
It should have an Invest.
It's more important right now than 99L

It's literally, partially over the coast.

Playing at the beach.

Headed up the coast for more beaches.

Currently there is no yellow area in the GOM.

Just off the FL - SE Coast.

I know very Julia Returns like...

We can talk on the Orange later.. or not.

Looking at the loop of the Gulf of Mexico below:

You see the trof that's lingering over Florida?

Off the coast is the area of interest near St. Augustine, FL

Down between Tampa and the Florida Keys is another part of it.

It's one huge messy stalled out area...

..amid weak steering currents.

So watch it for any home grown problems.

You know what home grown means right?

Noisy neighbors who party often.

Stay tuned. Keep watching. It's interesting.

Part of it crossed South Florida.

Another part continued on towards the Carolinas.

Now comes to the double 9 invest area that I don't want to talk about.

Ever date some guy or girl who likes to talk and flirt endlessly.

Note the definiton above.

Okay let's put it this way. If this Invest was a person it could be accused of having a Narcissistic Personality Disorder. It has sucked up the energy and time of the forecasters at the NHC and the many meteorologists online. I mean it started posting selfies before it left Africa. It got a screen name that uses the word "the" before it's name as in "theInvest99" and that's always something to stop and think on. It hands out business cards to everyone it meets, including the tow truck driver, the uber driver and the girl who it has been flirting with online for the last ten years online. Every time you pull away and try not to watch it sucks you back in with some complicated, convoluted story that compels you to watch it again. You tell yourself you won't. You refuse to check the satellite imagery. Invest 90L came along and it was practically ignored because Invest 99L had so much drama going on... Invest 99L bought tons of roses and sent them out to forecasters in far away cities and went on Snapchat and Instagram and it actually for a while tried to get a billboard in Time Square with it's name on it but then decided perhaps not. 

The models invested so much time caught up with Invest 99L they didn't even see Franklin forming until it got it's own cone. And no matter how good Hurricane Franklin looked or how impressive it was Invest 99L out in the Atlatnic for what seems now like a month keeps throwing out little cookies and sending online kisses to impress the storm chasers. Now being a storm chaser you are really vulnerable to narcissistic waves that like to keep you on a chain so they can suck you back in the moment you watch another Invest. In fact, it sucked in a perfectly nice Upper Level Low and the ULL has not been able to stop playing with 99L yet. It's time to stop and breathe and stop obsessing on this self absorbed, attention seeking Invest and move on. Get a life. I'd say wait until it's invest goes red but hey it was red coming off of Africa. It sent public officials in the Cabo Verde Islands a box of chocolate covered cherries. Seriously I don't want to talk about this anymore until it gets a name. It's sucking moisture out of the Caribbean (which is usually dry and never interested) and reaching out now to the area off of South Florida that can't get an Invest number despite being ON THE COAST like Julia last year. Why? Because we can't let go... we want to know what happened to the Prom King from Cabo Verde that graduated from Africa what seems like weeks ago. Let it go...

Look at it out there taking up a good part of the Atlantic, doing nothing yet it still has a 50% chance of forming according to the NHC somewhere between where it is now and Maine and models say it's a Fish Storm but we are still watching it. Seriously it's time to stop watching 99L and (no I am not trying reverse psychology here) and get a life and if it shows up then deal with it after it has a real name and a cone. It's there, we know it's there it's got it's names up in lights and a line in Vegas. Why do we do this? Because everyone likes a bad boy with an edge or a girl who is hard and exotic like the Girl From Impanema. And you know why everyone watches the girl from Impanema? Because she moves so slow and sexy ... Do you have any idea how long it took that girl to put on that much make up, do her hair and find the perfect bathing suit to catch your attention? 

Why do people buy romance novels with perfectly sweet nice heroines who fall in love with a sexy, handsome man wearing a cape named "THE DUKE OF ORLEANS" who wants to to devour them while on their way to rob her uncle who supports her and well ... they are called Bodice Rippers for a reason. Luke loved Laura, Luke raped Laura and we kept falling in love with Luke and Laura despite the rape which had a really good sound track and a lot of rationalization that she really wanted it. I can't hear Herb Albert to this day without thinking of that dance scene. It was the 1980s... not much changes trust me. So seems 99L has it's own sound track and we are still trying to learn how to dance with it... which by the way the Upper Level Low learned how to do and now 99L has it's sites on the poor little area of interest off the coast of Florida. 

Nuff said.

As for Franklin he is gone.

Bound to be Jova in the Epac.

Sarcastically said.. he's going to Hawaii...

Maybe Guam. 

Perhaps he has his eye on Vietnam?

He's really a sure bet to get a name anywhere.

Yet he will never be Invest 99L...

NHC gives it 90% in the Epac.

I mean it crossed Mexico and barely missed a beat.

Impressive.

It's August 11th and we are more than two thirds done with summer and on the way to Fall. Fall means football and hurricanes and back to school. For some around the country the kids have already gone back to school as Labor Day no longer tends to be the last weekend of summer before school. But will Labor Day bring us hurricanes this year? Possibly. But for now the main point here is to get out and enjoy yourselves weather permitting. In the Southeast there may be some heavy rain and along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico you'll be lucky if you don't get any rain.

I went out last night for drinks on a rooftop bar in Raleigh and sat outside. The sunset actually cooperated. The temperatures are moderating. It was a sports bar, we watched football. Life is good. There is so much going on in the world today that you got to take a few minutes to enjoy what you got while you got it. In the tenuous crazy times we live in it's good to smell the roses in the neighbor's yard, go to the ocean or the mountains or your favorite restaurant and actually get a drink and watch a football game. Listen to the music, dance and be happy for what you got without thinking on what you thought you wanted when that wave rolled off of Africa. It's just the way we are... as storm chasers, trackers and forecasters we all want a really good Cabo Verde Wave that turns into a Hurricane and...

Go to the mall and get a good cup of Starbucks or Caribou or whatever rocks your boat.

I'll be back when there is something to update on and I am NOT updating on 99L if it gets a red circle with 70% chances of forming. Maybe if it's about to be upgraded to a named storm. I'll admit I wanted to go chase it somewhere in the Outer Banks or maybe Wrightsville or really Morehead City but it's not even late August there will be more where that one came from and hopefully one with less talk and more action.

Besos BobbiStorm.

Ps..if you liked my analogy check this video out...or others. I came across it a while back..while trying to figure out where my Great Great Grandfather came from which is hard to do as he came from Russia originally (though it may have be Poland, Romania or Lithuania now days) and he had a penchant for changing names which I suppose I may have gotten from him. So Woolfe or Wolf or Wolfe or Velvel or Zev and not sure he didn't use William Abrams is a slippery moving target on Ancestry. But he did live out his life in Tampa watching thunderstorms out over Tampa Bay after living in Key West for a long time in the 1880s where he was naturalized. I guess I got those weather watching genes from him. Maybe if he was alive today he'd be WolfCane online. Just a thought. This picture is in books about Key West history but it was in my grandma's picture album as well... as her father Wolf with her two brothers on the docks of Key West. Notice he's dressed a bit nicer than the people on the dock. A mystery and that is why mysteries consume us because there's nothing sexier than a little mystery.



She's good... very good.  She makes good, valid points!

Florida Trof.. Invest 99L & the ULL ... Caribbean Wave Flaring Up Near Where Franklin Began...Franklin Over Mexico Out of the Picture.

Today is a day to wait and watch.

A lot going on but much of it is subtle.

First off you can see Franklin exiting our world and moving rapidly towards the Eastern Pacific. The GOM is free of action today, although the Northern Gulf of Mexico coast shows continued convection creating localized flooding problems. To the immediate East of South Florida is a trough of low pressure that is moving NW along the coast of Florida and it needs to be watched for a few reasons. ESE of the Florida blob is the ongoing saga of Invest 99L and the ULL that is stuck like glue to it. And, lastly worth mentioning a wave that has moved into the Eastern Caribbean is flaring up and traveling the same back roads that 90L did before it became Franklin. Looking back at where Franklin began you can see why I watch any area that shows increased convection in that part of the Caribbean with the current set up. The recent past is often prologue to the near term future weather wise. Spoiler alert the yellow area became Franklin. The red area did not become Franklin.

Moving on to a color water vapor loop below that shows a different perspective.

The wonderful water vapor loop above takes us deeper into the structure of the moist atmosphere as well as showing the Upper Level Lows and the dry high regions. Note the wave in the Eastern Carib is followed by another wave from our 2017 Cabo Verde Wave Train. Going back to August 3rd when we were given a bright red area off the coast of Africa and yellow area appeared in the Caribbean as a possible area of formation.  You can also see the Upper Level Low really well in this loop. It twists, enhancing rainfall in 99L and then it chokes if off again. 

And surprises have been common this year and last year so I see no reason to ignore the possibility of more popping up close in creating home grown systems. Home grown from waves that traveled far but couldn't get it together until they got closer to land. That's problematic as the closer they get to land the harder it is for them to become fish storms. Yesterday the NHC posted a yellow circle off the coast of Florida in the Bahamas. Art imitates life as a weak area of vorticity spun up near the Bahamas and made a face at the forecasters in South Florida at the NHC. You can see below and judge for yourself. Is that a wink, a smile or is it gritting it's teeth there below?

For South Florida this enhances the rainfall totals and may cause some locally heavy flooding, but it's just another day in a tropical paradise where it rains often this time of year; especially this particular year. Despite a strong high Miami has been in the flow for monsoonal type of rainstorms way past the usual prime time for Miami Monsoons in May, June and early July. August begins normally to dry out but time will tell this year. 

The NWS last night in Miami talked on it with the sound of "yeah whatever, we are used to this" and that's probably true. This discussion is shown above, though this morning they did warn on rip tides and pop up strong storms. As this area it is moving WNW to NW it could cause problems up the way. And Chick Jacobs knows up the way as in Carolina weather as in specifically the Sandhills. Google it unless you play golf in which case I'm sure you know where it is... 

A good link to use for anything Florida is below. It has a great radar site and I suggest you hold onto that link as it's valuable during the Hurricane Season or any time of year if you live in Florida. And before it affects the Carolina's weather let's look at South Florida. Picture it sliding up the coast much like the system that Julia formed from last year.

Rain forecast for today in Florida.

Messy... very messy.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

Speaking of links and Tropical Storm Julia. In September of 2016 the NHC put up an Invest for an area just off the coast of South Florida and added a circle on their map highlighting concern. Then they pulled the Invest. Then they put it back up and eventually it evolved into Tropical Storm Julia. It had low odds and they pretty much kept saying "yeah we see it" and everyone was as always looking beyond out into the Atlantic at a westbound tropical wave. I was pretty sure something would form and decided to go down to Florida for my son's wedding at a time we could intercept it and see some tropical weather along the way. I wasn't disappointed. The drive through Georgia into Florida was intense and in Jacksonville tropical storm conditions definitely existed, the hotel we stayed in on Ormond Beach had some flooding in the oceanfront rooms. The little yellow circle off of Florida last year was ignored for waves that had better model support until Julia crawled onto the beaches of North Florida and the NHC called it a Tropical Storm over land. The end result might be different with this area, but the set up is similar. See below.

September 2016 below.

Old post concerning Florida rain and tropical waves.

Link below:

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/09/tropical-rains-florida-discussion.html

Fast forward to today.

Yellow X in the same spot as last year.

Low chances... a nod to it's presence.

Weak sign of vorticity.

Close up view of the area 

It does have a definitive twist on radar.

Below you can see the whole wide picture.

As the sunrises over the world

So let's go back to the beginning.

I said at the top today is a day to wait and watch.

But expect surprises as this has been the trend this year.

And to some degree last year.

Struggling waves, close in surprises.

99L is indeed dancing with the ULL.

The ULL won't let go.

If 99L can get away from the ULL.

The ULL will oddly help it breathe.

But until then they are entwined.

Again more worried on down the road than now.

At some point the road ends. 

Where an when?

Models below.

It is now where we thought it needed to be to do something.

Most believe now that this double entity known as 99L...

Will get caught up in the frontal boundary up the way.

Sort of a three some now and as usual the front wins out.

Time will tell.

Stay tuned.

Watch and wait.

If you are in the Carolinas enjoy the cool temps.

Mid 60s in Raleigh this morning.

Going up to mid 80s :)

Keep watching 99L and the ULL...

And don't ignore the area off of Florida.

As this year is the year of surprises close in..

..again.

AGAIN watch them dance in the loop below.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... I know you want to know what's over Africa. Kind of quiet. Will tropical weather affect watching the eclipse on the 21st of August? Stay tuned. And watch waves that flare up later rather than sooner.

UPDATED ... HURRICANE FRANKLIN 1st of 2017 ---New Yellow Circle Off of Florida...Invest 99L Hanging In Tough... Will It Become GERT?

Hurricane Franklin.
1st of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

5 PM makes it official!

You can see this happening without recon going in..

..tho recon will confirm it.

Notice the white spot in the center pop out.

Mexico will deal with heavy rain and hurricane force winds.

99L has 50/50 odds.

And what will they say at 8 PM re: Bahama Blob?

Hello Wednesday Surprise
I have said several times recently to worry on home grown.
This is a good example.
Nothing might really form...
...but it would aid in steering currents for 99L to it's ESE



Getting really crowded isn't it?




Notice the swirly area East of Florida?
The NHC just introduced a yellow circle there.
This an example of how modeling is not there yet.

I'm starting with this is it is close in.

First rule of journalism is small local is bigger...

...that big system far away.

Meanwhile we are still watching 99L.

I'll update with a new post after the 5 PM advisory.

Still waiting on Franklin to go Hurricane

Look at that swirling green....

Trying to close off an eye like area.

So far Franklin hasn't blinked.

Stay tuned.

So I went out this morning. I decided I needed a bit of a break from the computer and worrying on kids traveling (someone is always traveling in my family) and rest my eyes as I get summertime headaches. My back hurts if I sit way too long so I walked and talked and shopped. Teavana is having a really good sale. Blood Orange Sherbert something Iced Tea. Came home and news is breaking everywhere. I have tons of messages online and I missed seeing the yellow circle pop up out of nowhere. I'm not a big Drudge fan, though I love looking at his site for the pictures, but that's seriously BIG BLACK LETTERS... but you know me I'm going to go loop and loop and look at the models. I'll update later today around dinner time. Waiting to see if we get a hurricane out of Franklin. Wouldn't it be funny if the name Gert gets used for something other than 99L? Will Franklin live up to his expectations? Will 99L disappoint and will a tropical system form off shore Miami in the Bahamas before 99L even gets there.

I' 

Close to Hurricane Strength ...

..forecast to become Hurricane Franklin

Franklin cradled in the Bay of Campeche  aka BOC

Spinning over very warn water...

...with some light shear to the North.

I used this image so you can see the whole picture.

The trof that is creating flooding problems.

Now look at the Water Vapor Loop

Note the extreme heavy moisture in that Southern band that has been lashing some of the coastal cities in Mexico far ahead of the arrival of the eye making landfall. This set up increases the flooding threat in those coastal towns. A map of that area being affected by Franklin is shown below.

Forecast Discussion is written well at 5 AM.

They have forecast it to be a 80 MPH Hurricane.

So it's pretty much a done deal.

 

So here are the players above. 

Franklin in BOC

99L in the Atlantic. 

Note explanation for upping winds to 70 MPH.

Setting the table for upgrade to Hurricane later today.

Good discussion.

Below discussion on types of intensification.

The door is left open in case it gets stronger .

Also the size has expanded.

Franklin has bulked up.

So watches and warnings are expended.

Sort of in tandem as size does matter.

One last look at Franklin.

Really most photogenic storm of the year.

It's still early but it's impressive.

Stay tuned for later in August, September.

Maybe Labor Day...

Nice neat, tight center shown below:

Moving on let's take a look at Invest 99L

99L is an example of the many things.

Being focused .. mind, body and soul.

You can click on the link below and watch the slow progression of 99L over the last five days. Picture a peddler of some sort making his way across a trade route, day by day to his destination. Those early spice traders perhaps that traveled East to find pepper and spices to bring back to Europe. You couldn't just order it on Amazon and have them deliver it for you in less than an hour. Waves like 99L are slow travelers that sometimes have an end game and the plan is to get where it is going and avoid getting killed off along the way. Remember... maybe of those spice traders never made it to India..

Invest http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/satellite/goeseast-wv.php

You can actually go back a week or so in time and watch as 99L left Africa amidst a great deal of hype and model support. 

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2017/08/euro-wakes-up-and-blesses-new-african.html

And it began it's slow journey. Part of the problem early on was that it was a huge wave and there were multiple centers across a wide area. One great wave suddenly became an odd mess that stayed together yet didn't accomplish much. Ever know someone when they were young and they had this awesome brain, high IQ off the chart and a GPA way above 4.0 (yeah that was possible in my world) and you figure they will go out into the world and do great things. Sometimes they are interested in different things, they are left brain and right brain all in one and they blow you away. Maybe they will create some life saving new drug or make a fortune or run for office and save the State of Florida or even the whole USA. And, yet over time nothing much really happened. They went to college, they partied, they belonged to clubs and they got lost somewhere along the way. Now ...sometimes you never hear from them again unless you go looking on Classmates and are surprised they are living a quiet life somewhere with a nice enough looking wife, two children and a cat and a dog. Other times they fall off the grid almost completely except for a rare sighting at a public event somewhere and then they show up again late in life. They become what is known as a "late bloomer" and you can see the potential realized that you saw when they were young. Not everyone develops the same way and life can be cruel sometimes, but sometimes potential is realized late. Gert may be that sort of girl. So keep watching Invest 99L that is wearing orange this morning at the NHC and has a 40% chance of developing in five days. I spelled out five just for the NHC as they are into that these days. Okay that was low, but eventually I'll give my thoughts on PTC Seven but now is not that day.

Models show 99L moving WNW into our part of the world and ending up near the Bahamas somewhere East of Florida. We are hoping a cold front moves towards the South and eventually picks up 99L (Gert?) and scoops it up and out to sea. Again it is August and that's hoping for a lot. Then again it's August 2017 and we have had a few fronts. Then again the last front moved down, cleared Carolina and then went flat and backed up a bit again. So hoping for a cold front in August is something I do, however I wouldn't say where or when 99L will meet the cold front just yet. So stay tubed. Models shown below are by Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits and posted by Mike on Spaghetti Models. And as always the caveat is that without a closed center and information from recon models are often messy from run to run and have what is called junk runs even. You remember that saying "don't fire until you see the white of their eyes" ?? It's kind of like that with models, only rely on them when you can see a real center and even better an eye in a hurricane. And, even then they fall short sometimes and off the pedestal we put them on in search of perfection in tropical forecasting.

Sounds confusing isn't it? Not really, it's very simplistic actually. There are a few possibilities every time a wave rolls off of Africa.

a) It forms fast and gets a name and a cone and often goes out to sea as a fish storm.

b) It struggles along and after falling apart fast it bounces back and gets a name. WNW to....

c) It starts to form then falls apart, fights SAL, barely is there and then bounces back aka Andrew.

d) Despite all the hype and pretty selfies shown online it slowly fades away.

It's that simple and no I am not saying this could be Andrew, I'm pointing out Andrew formed late as did Camille that didn't form until it got to near where Invest 90L formed and Katrina formed off the Florida coast. Some very famous hurricanes have been late bloomers. Oh add in the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane.

You can see the curl forming by 99L

Look at the deep tropical moisture Franklin has available. 

Will Invest 99L become Gert? Or will 99L just simply fade and drift away? 

Stay tuned. Later I will talk on updated models. The GFS and the EURO have been sent to a counselor to see if they can work out their many differences. Will they come together and produce a reliable forecast for the forecasters who would like more consistency? Only time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Follow me on Twitter @bobbistorm for faster updates and interactive discussion.

Ps 2 thoughts. 

Last year's memorable, long tracking couldn't get it together Invest 99L became Hermine.

And if you get too much pepper near you ... you sneeze, yet people still love it!

Hermine link from last year for those of you still here...

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2016/08/invest-99l-looking-stronger-more.html