A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
91L 92L 93L All Revving Their Engines For a Race .. Westbound... But All Taking Different Roads
In the 2 Day we are at level Yellow.
The X marks the spot here shows where our waves are..
Notice the lead wave is getting closer to the Islands.
The 3rd wave has just moved off of Africa.
The new wave rolling off of Africa is lower than the rest.
In the 5 day we go orange.
Chances are across the board 40% down the road.
Which one of the develops?
All of them can....
...sort of a race drama to see which develops first.
But which one goes the distance?
A good look below of the individual waves.
It's an older shot but a really good one.
Note they all have a similar shape and form.
Definitely from the same family.
That low band like arm feature reaching out...
..wanting to touch you... to move W or WNW..'
Close up image of the lead two waves.
You can see how neatly spaced apart they are for now.
And a slow steady progress towards circulation is ongoing.
91L looks better below circulation wise..
..92L has more convection.
93L is a big wave... very big.
And it gains from the moisture trail 91L and 92L left.
So where are they going?
They are cruising under the High Pressure.
The models are up on www.spaghettimodels.com
www.tropicaltidbits.com
A short post here as I want to see how things play throughout the day. And in truth the models are pretty set here on what the pattern will be regarding the lead two waves. 91L goes into the Caribbean and then we watch to see what happens with it. 92L makes a run at Florida but in order to do so it needs to get through the shear zone and we've seen this plot line a few times this year already. It looks good now, but can 92L maintain that once it lifts more to the WNW into the shear zone? Probably not. Can it come back close to the coast of Florida as some models have implied? They also keep it a very weak system but let's see what happens in real time not model fantasy time. A definite maybe. Then we have 93L the Big Momma Wave ... it's possible but not set in stone it pulls ore to the NW at some point as a stronger system and shoots for the weakness and becomes a Fish Storm but a really beautiful one. I'm not ready to call this a Fish Storm as it's just too soon. Too many intangibles and it's barely off the coast of Africa to write it's whole life story based on models that have done a less than stellar job this year of forecasting development as well as crapping out on intensity as well. It's just...well......... way too soon. Many models imply it becomes another Gert but a stronger Gert. Too soon to tell.. keep watching.
Rather than play with the models as if they are some sort of interactive video game... I suggest you spend some time today online watching the waves, the frontal boundaries, the highs, the lows and the Upper Level Lows that may be forming on the Water Vapor Loop. It's really the best crystal ball when it comes to watching the evolution of Upper Level Lows and in general they often are the key to showing whether a system will develop or will be sheared apart.
I'll be back later with specific model discussion and updates on our three waves set to race across the Atlantic. Where they start out is where the NHC put the X on the map this morning. Where they end up is yet to be determined.
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Follow me...for faster updates in real time as I don't go anywhere without checking my Twitter feed .. embarrassing but true....
Ps... There's more waves behind this trio ...obviously ...so get a plan if you live in Hurricane Country. As they are all moving westbound to our side of the world.
UPDATED! Invest 92L Introduced by NHC. 3 Waves... 2 Orange! Wave Train Active.. Discussion on 91L and what Will be 92L and 93L Eventually... Wave Train... African Wave Train. Get a Plan For Hurricane Season Now. Hurricane Gert Going Out to Sea... One or More of These Waves May NOT Go Out To Sea and May Impact the USA..
Invest 92L
That's the 2nd wave if you are keeping track.
Middle wave...
You know that famous scene in Twister where they look up at the threatening sky and say "Going green!!" and get all excited? Well... we be going orange here today. NHC ups the odds of Wave #2 know known as Invest 92L developing. It has a floater (for close in viewing up) and a place on the board at the NRL. No voting rights, but it is allowed in on meetings and discussion ;)
The GFS takes the first wave all the way into the Caribbean (91L) and possibly into the Pacific again seeing the EPAC with potential storms. 92L it takes North of the Islands where it seems to die out. 93L becomes a Fish storm for the time being following a path like Gert. That's early, it's the GFS and it's one run.
Creating strong rip currents on the East Coast beaches.
Looking good but not threatening land.
Now you can compare and contrast today at 2 PM
with this morning from the NHC at 8 AM
If you have not already read my blog today.
Keep reading the thoughts are still valid.
Thanks ... BobbiStorm
Yesterday I began to talk on the possibility of 3 waves in the Eastern Atlantic and multiple invests being tracked down the line. And here we are today with 3 areas of interest in the distant Atlantic. A bouquet of yellow and orange tulips laying on their side pointing towards our part of the world.
The image I put up yesterday to foreshadow this is below:
Note the mudslide in Seirra Leone was due to the last of the waves. The second wave made the ground soft, but the third wave, the larger complex over Africa seen above in this older picture had torrential amounts of rain and the whole hillside just gave way. This is how the waves work sometimes as one sets up a situation for the one behind it. In this case, that second wave is soaking the atmosphere ahead of the 3rd wave to be ripe for development of a real Cabo Verde Hurricane. A real CV Season for many with El Nino gone, the MJO onboard and even the Kelvin Wave playing it's part. A trio of conditions, a trio of waves for now (there will be more) and lot's in store for the next few months to worry on from a tropical standpoint.
Gert can be seen below easily.
As for Gert.... It's important to say the models, generally, did not do well with this wave. They over forecast its development, then they dropped it, then they went all over the place on Intensity forecasting from weak nothing to Major Hurricane. Luckily it's been a fish storm not threatening any city that needs to get proper watches and warnings. But as a test of the models... it doesn't say much for the models. Their forecast has been off on everything, except for the track, and especially with regard to forward speed and ability to wrap. It's a Hurricane and it's still having problems wrapping. But a decent hurricane.
A reminder for newbies... a hurricane does not have to have an eye to be a hurricane. It has to have the speed. Of late it seems the question has been does it have an eye. Eyes usually pop out at around 80 or 85 mph, however they can show up early on. But the criteria for a hurricane is wind speed not the shape of the eye. It's not a swim suit competition for the title. Remember that. Gert is going out to sea. But what lingers in my mind is the steering currents were not as strong as they expected so it's slowly going out to sea, but it is forecast to go out to sea.
Now moving on to the 3 areas of interest.
Note only 1 currently is an Invest.
That will change.
Invest 91L
Invest 91L can seen below.
Beginning to possibly consolidate.
The 1st of the waves (91L) is forecast to go West.
After several wild model runs they have settled down some.
www.spaghettimodels.com has them up as always.
As always it can pull WNW at some point.
With some exceptions.
Most models take 91L into the Caribbean.
I don't want to speculate beyond that.
If it stays low it goes into Central America..
...or the Yucatan...
If it stays high we wonder on the Gulf of Mexico.
Note I said "wonder" not "worry"
It's a long ways out still.
Note in that top screen you see a line out in the ocean? That should be Invest 92L but it's up to the NHC. Early discussion based on models shows this to be Florida Bahamas concern. Understand when you have multiple waves you have multiple scenarios and multiple intangibles and models do not work well with regard to so many intangibles without a closed center in any of these areas that are just waves so they need to be watched but not taken as a path set in stone. That said if you live in the Florida area it would be time well spent to go over your hurricane plans and have a plan for a Tropical Storm vs a plan for a Hurricane. As Bryan Norcross says an "executable plan" and start stocking up when you can at Publix or your local Dollar Store. The 2nd wave could be a Florida concern down the road, down the distant road.
Now we come to the last of this morning's 3 waves.
This is the wave that is a concern for me to be a big player.
But that's a stab in the dark still as it's far out.
The fact that there is already a box on it shows you that.
The only thing I can say with certain is this..
The area below WILL see development.
Why you ask is this so difficult for forecasters?
Did you really ask that?
Let's put it this way. Let's take the 2nd wave for this explanation. The forecast for this wave relies on Invest 91L doing certain things in both track, intensity and forward speed. It also takes into account that Wave #3 does NOT overtake wave number 2 and move faster than previously forecast. It's just way too many intangibles to take any model run seriously at this point. As time goes by.. one or two of them develop, they have a real center to base future runs off of and then we get better models but if those models don't verify then the other models don't really verify as we no longer have a tree falling in a forest anymore we have a traffic jam on the Tropical Highway known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. They are all converging at once and there are so many variables it's like trying to be certain five days out who is on first.
Nuff said.
So cut the gang at the NHC some slack over the next few days.
Don't fall a victim to hype.
Knowledge is power.
I'll be back later today to update my thoughts.
Any important information will be updated at the top.
Anything big gets its own new post.
Look how far away these 3 waves are...
... also we have fronts on the map as well.
My bottom line below on the tropics today.
Gert is moving on...and so am I.
Lead wave Invest 91L is moving west and slowly coming together. IF it comes together faster it could pull more to the North, but if it continues pulling together slowly it will most likely move West into the Caribbean. From there again it depends on strength. If it stays weak it continues west and if it gets stronger it could try to shoot the Yucatan area around Cuba and be a concern up the road for areas in the GOM. Again it can do that and curve up into a frontal boundary and make landfall on the West coast of Florida near Tampa just as easily as be shoved west by a strong high towards Texas. It's way too soon to tell. All options are on the road down the road but in the short term...its moving West
2nd Wave... Middle Child... The middle wave wants to break from the pack and pull more to the North possibly avoiding the Islands or not... and for now seems to be a Florida Bahamas concern. Past that obviously we can talk about later today and tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.
3rd Wave ... Big Concern on this one. Any wave that has "tasted blood" and has aided in a situation that led to tragedy early on as it's departing Africa bears watching until it dies out and the NHC stops writing advisories. As much as I'm concerned about MYami (as we call it) and the 2nd wave I'm more concerned overall on this wave as it has the potential for potential to be realized. Then there's the wave over Africa with wings... and looks determined to make a big splash at the coming out party at Dakar. Stay tuned.
Models come and models go.
But good waves are not so easy to find.
We have some strong ones there and no El Nino.
Check out that link for Publix.
Shop accordingly.
Don't panic.
Prepare.
Again.........there are more waves behind these three so let's stay focused on what we see not what we will see. But, I'm telling you there is a huge, big wave over Africa that will be late to this tropical party and we need to remember that.
No I'm not going all black and white like Drudge. In Drudge's world everything is black and white always, there are no shades of gray with him but this is the tropics and we do things colorfully in the tropics and with lost of musics. The palm fronds rustle and sometimes they are riffled by a strong breeze and they do more than rustle. And sometimes the whole palm tree sways and the palm fronds look like willows all bent over and then the storm passes and you pick up the pieces and rebuild. Sometimes the "pieces" are palm fronds scattered about and other times it's roof tiles or even the roof. But you can prepare and knowledge is power and you can't ignore the weather always. During those slow El Nino years people should have been stocking up on what they can on items on clearance and sale after the quiet hurricane season that had past. Home Depot always has stuff on sale... and as I said yesterday Dollar Stores sell most of everything you need on the lower end of the scale. No they don't sell scales or generators but they have things you can toss in a closet rather than panic and run to Publix and pray they have not been sold out. In which case you end up at lot's of Publix looking for your favorite brands of whatever that were already bought by the early paranoid, panic buyers when they first saw a red circle in the Atlantic about to get a name.
Nuff said...
I've been saying this for weeks... oh no really for months. Get a plan, prepare for hurricane season and be as they say at the NHC #HurricaneStrong.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... we will check back on the 3 waves later today. For now ... make a plan, make a back up plan and hope and pray you won't have to use them. I will update with the newest model runs later today and go more into specifics. But worry on the wave that believes it can fly...
UPDATED! HURRICANE Gert. 91L Making Many Nervous Even Tho It's So Far Away... Gert is Dancing With the Fish and Harvey is on the Horizon...As Well As Irma... Hmnnn Do You Have a Plan? Supplies? Y Not? And Fix Those Pumps in Nola and Miami
Hurricane Gert.
Done Deal.
99L AKA TD8 Makes the Grade Finally.
2nd Hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season!
The Hurricane That Never Saw Recon...
..moving on.
Cone the same.
I'll update in the AM.
You can see what they are discussing regarding the eye.
It's there but it's not still got some issues.
Model forecasts tonight show it getting stronger.
Much stronger.
And they are being conservative.
Some models show higher.
But conservative can be good.
Stay tuned..
There are 3 waves off of Africa.
The one that is rolling off now concerns me.
Besos BobbiStorm
1 - 2 - 3
Will be discussing them tomorrow.
***
Previous posts show how this progressed into Hurricane.
And why I am worried on the newest wave.
5 PM.
Compare and contrast with the 11 AM.
Intensity 70 MPH.
That's the story for Gert.
Other than some models show it going Cat 2.
For now I'd like to see the NHC bump it up to Cat 1.
Hurricane Gert... go figure.
As for figures, there is a new girl on the block.
Well it's a girl IF 91L is Harvey.
Either way a new yellow circle is on the map.
A wave that is just leaving Africa.
What worries me on this wave is...
...it's already caused problems over Sierra Leone.
Hard to keep all the waves apart as they merge together.
But this new wave came off after dumping torrential rains.
For the Miami people this is the day Andrew left Africa.
We are getting knee deep into the heart of the hurricane season..
With this sort of wave train.
It only takes one or two to make landfall...
... so prepare now while you can.
If you don't use the hurricane supplies..
Donate them to a food bank.
And give thanks you didn't need them.
If you need them you will be thankful you have them.
Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Very very busy times in the Atlantic.
Here's a song a busy song...
Note the eye forming.
Needs to be upgraded....
Dvorak Image below shows this intensification.
Brightest whites in the center.
Could an eye form in Gert?
Loop below shows how Gert tightened up.
Pulled together.
Also shows Invest 91L and the wave behind it.
Waiting on the 2 PM update from NHC on 91L
8AM shown below.
Gert off the SE Coast.
91L with 60% chances of development in the 5 day.
NHC Discussion below:
And the Models.
Everyone wants to see the models.
So straight from Spaghetti Models...
...here's the pasta.
You can see Gert spinning off the SE coast.
You can also see some SAL and our waves.
Moving West in tandem as always.
Better now than before.
Wave train juicing up the atmosphere.
Upping the odds the new waves survive!
There are three things to know this morning.
1. Gert is forecast to stay out at sea.
2. Gert is forecast to be a hurricane.
3. Harvey could form from Invest 91L in several days.
This could change later today.
Everything is always subject to change.
Weather is fluid.
Gert forecast above to be a Hurricane.
Probably...
Those are the basics.
There is some good discussion online that is based on models and climo and not meant to scare people as much as to give information. Some people believe knowledge is power and it empowers them to feel less nervous about possible tropical trouble. Here's a few voices I listen to and find worth following.
Could Irma be waiting in the wings after Harvey forms?
Again I remind you there are multiple waves as shown below.
DaBuh shows this below with the models on Twitter.
And to show you how fast models change.
This is a great view of what the models showed last night.
So if you live anywhere from Houston to Tampa...
..and you hear about the Euro today...
Remember early models dance around a lot.
Gert who is a dancing with the fish...
..was forecast to hit Miami and Boston early on.
Last night's models are shown below.
So using last night's model runs above...
I want to show you how fast things can change.
I do this often ...show the compare and contrast.
Where did it go below? GFS....
After being very bullish with 91L the new improved (?) GFS loses it before the Islands with no real sense of what happened to it. Perhaps it was not vertically aligned and some shear appeared out of nowhere and the GFS sniffed it out and 91L unravels fast. Perhaps next model run looks like the run above that shows it back up in the Bahamas. It's hard to think it forms and falls apart but maybe the GFS had a good tip on an Upper Level Low forming there and ripping it to shreds?
The Euro is a bit unbelievable yet no one in this field wants to discount the Euro. Previously the Euro wasn't impressed, this morning it takes it really far West into the Islands staying together across Hispaniola, Cuba and then moving up into the GOM looking like a wanna be major hurricane that's going to threaten some city in it's path. People in New Orleans should take that model run with some Absinthe and not check that model again for a day or two. And the city of Nola better get it's act together regarding the pumps as it's going to be a long season and this is just the beginning. There are more where this one came from out there across Africa. Fix the pumps, get it done! No excuses.....
Here is 91L aka Harvey maybe...
Coming off of Hispaniola over Cuba.
(It seems to like hitting land)
Then moving up into the GOM
Note the EURO also develops the wave behind it.
Takes on Hispaniola ...
Lunges West towards Cuba...
Note new storm behind it..
Continues across Cuba... Georges like...
(Georges liked hitting land too..)
Big storm behind it now.
Then BAMN scaring everyone along the GOM...
Other storm becomes a fish storm ?
Note heavy blue where SAL used to be.
I'm not saying this is impossible.
But it is implausible.
Land interaction does inhibit intensification usually.
Watch it as a possible pattern vs a finished product.
Euro is a work in progress but it's on to something.
Reminds me of a forecast made by Jim Williams.
For possible storm tracks this year.
Note his stays more to South side of Cuba.
Euro takes it over backbone of Cuba.
Speaking of SAL.
Using this image to show you the waves not SAL.
This satellite image is like using Xray vision.
It shows both waves well.
There are two areas of vorticity out there.
Sort of as the EURO implies.
Or is the EURO sniffing the bigger wave over Africa.
Hard to be 100% sure what the models are showing.
Spoiler Alert:
Models are like Millenials doing Snap.
Oh snap...they can type onto the image.
Models just spit out images.
They keep their thoughts to themselves.
We try to interpret them into a cohesive forecast.
Let's look close up at 91L
Are we 100% sure which wave is The Big One?
I don't think so.
Not yet.
Soon.
Back to Gert.
Ain't she sweet.
Finally looking good.
She can't get NHC to give it more than 45 MPH winds?
In motion.
I'd give it at least 50 MPH.
It's trying.
Wider view showing us the whole basin.
Gert... 91L and possibly 92L.
What will the NHC do?
Using Xray vision ;)
You can see this below.
Much to discuss this morning and it's not much to do about nothing. It's definitely something, but in it's vagueness there are all these intangibles and the intangibles keep rearranging. Long range models keep spitting out various long term solutions for waves off the African coast and people far away in the USA go crazy imaging their worst case scenario. In New Orleans they see Katrina coming, in Miami they see Andrew coming and in Cuba they are praying Hispaniola knocks it down before it lands on their doorstep. Everyone has a nightmare and just one run of a long term model on a strong set of tropical waves will bring out the worst fears of many who have been through a hurricane before and lived to remember it too well. For those who are new to Miami or Houston or Tampa they are trying to buy school supplies, get tickets to their favorite sporting event and going to the movies as if nothing was out there by Africa. Isn't innocence bliss ... or not.
This is the way of the world in the tropics. Once you have been burned you remember, you wonder, you worry and you prepare. It only takes one land falling strong hurricane that knocked your power out for ten days to have the hurricane season calendar engraved into your mind. Many pack up and leave town for places where cyclones from the West Indies don't threaten the stability of their lives. In 1926 the city of Miami was barely three decades old and what was previously a small rock ridge at the edge of the Everglades was populated by mostly new comers seeking their fortune and their place in the sun. After the 1926 Hurricane turned their dreams to nightmares people had two choices. Pick up the pieces, rebuild and start over or move on and get the hell out of Dade County and many did. The trains that brought in the coffins for the dead, gave free rides out of town to people who wished to head back up north fast. FPL offered jobs to anyone who needed by telling people they could hop on the trucks and get a job rebuilding the electric grid that obviously went down as the hurricane moved across the Magic City.
What would you do?
Just remember that hurricanes are one of the only "natural disasters" you can prepare for and you can be warned are coming with an extreme degree of accuracy. In LA they can tell you an earthquake is imminent.... meaning anytime over the next few years or so. In Oklahoma you can be warned that storm chasers are in town and there's a high chance of tornado activity yet even the chasers aren't sure where they will spin up other than a wide grid on a map sometimes across two or three states. Trust me as they go Hurricanes can be prepared for and if you have the money you can even leave town after having your hurricane shutters put up and saying a few prayers you have something to come home to.... If you are low on money did you know other than shutters and wood you can get almost everything you need at your local Dollar Store? Rich or poor you can prepare.
So... as annoying as they can be sometimes the people at the NHC do an incredible job giving us the best possible forecast package they can put out. Again it's a forecast not a summary of what happened looking back in time; they are trying to predict what will happen. And again, weather is fluid and things change which is why models change so often and sometimes the storms do not follow the models and then the models put that data in to the next model run and it goes on and on ....
So with regard to Invest 91L just keep watching it and consider each model run "interesting" and for "entertainment purposes only" however as they firm up and your area is under the gun order on Amazon Prime or go to the local Dollar Store and stock up on Hurricane Supplies cause 2017 is a busy season and the Cabo Verde Waves are rocking it this year. And they all seem to want to go west.... Make an executable plan and do it now. And as for Nola and Miami...get those pumps fixed please.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps... I will update throughout the day as things change noticeably.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
