Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

UPDATED! Invest 92L Introduced by NHC. 3 Waves... 2 Orange! Wave Train Active.. Discussion on 91L and what Will be 92L and 93L Eventually... Wave Train... African Wave Train. Get a Plan For Hurricane Season Now. Hurricane Gert Going Out to Sea... One or More of These Waves May NOT Go Out To Sea and May Impact the USA..

Invest 92L 

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That's the 2nd wave if you are keeping track.
Middle wave...

You know that famous scene in Twister where they look up at the threatening sky and say "Going green!!" and get all excited? Well... we be going orange here today. NHC ups the odds of Wave #2 know known as Invest 92L developing. It has a floater (for close in viewing up) and a place on the board at the NRL. No voting rights, but it is allowed in on meetings and discussion ;)

As for the models.

The GFS takes the first wave all the way into the Caribbean (91L) and possibly into the Pacific again seeing the EPAC with potential storms. 92L it takes North of the Islands where it seems to die out. 93L becomes a Fish storm for the time being following a path like Gert. That's early, it's the GFS and it's one run.

The Euro above shifts around a lot.
Sort of like it's doing a polka.
Develops one.. disappears, reappears... 
Has the feeling of garbage in ...garbage out.
It does take 91L into the Caribbean.
Forms 92L ... loses 92L.
Time will tell.

I'm not much into the models right now.
I'm more into watching the pattern.
Watching the waves.

Data not totally in now.
More models will be run later today.

It needs to be watched.
Even if it falls apart and regenerates closer in.

Anyone who tells you they know where it's going.. looking for attention and wishcasting.
It is way too soon to tell.

Let's look at the from far away.
I'll be back later today or rather tonight.
I wanted to update for the introduction of 92L

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You can see the whole wave train chugging along.
When you see a concentration of color...
..or a wave, curl forming (tight curl)
Then there's something to talk about.

Both 91L and 92L are closing off as seen below.

The links for these two above are up on Mike's site.

Gert we are ignoring is looking good.
Creating strong rip currents on the East Coast beaches.

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Looking good but not threatening land.

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Now you can compare and contrast today at 2 PM 
with this morning from the NHC at 8 AM
If you have not already read my blog today.
Keep reading the thoughts are still valid.
Thanks ... BobbiStorm

Yesterday I began to talk on the possibility of 3 waves in the Eastern Atlantic and multiple invests being tracked down the line. And here we are today with 3 areas of interest in the distant Atlantic. A bouquet of yellow and orange tulips laying on their side pointing towards our part of the world.

The image I put up yesterday to foreshadow this is below:

1 .... 2............3

Note the mudslide in Seirra Leone was due to the last of the waves. The second wave made the ground soft, but the third wave, the larger complex over Africa seen above in this older picture had torrential amounts of rain and the whole hillside just gave way. This is how the waves work sometimes as one sets up a situation for the one behind it. In this case, that second wave is soaking the atmosphere ahead of the 3rd wave to be ripe for development of a real Cabo Verde Hurricane. A real CV Season for many with El Nino gone, the MJO onboard and even the Kelvin Wave playing it's part. A trio of conditions, a trio of waves for now (there will be more) and lot's in store for the next few months to worry on from a tropical standpoint. 

Gert can be seen below easily.

As for Gert.... It's important to say the models, generally, did not do well with this wave. They over forecast its development, then they dropped it, then they went all over the place on Intensity forecasting from weak nothing to Major Hurricane. Luckily it's been a fish storm not threatening any city that needs to get proper watches and warnings. But as a test of the models... it doesn't say much for the models. Their forecast has been off on everything, except for the track, and especially with regard to forward speed and ability to wrap. It's a Hurricane and it's still having problems wrapping. But a decent hurricane.

A reminder for newbies... a hurricane does not have to have an eye to be a hurricane. It has to have the speed. Of late it seems the question has been does it have an eye. Eyes usually pop out at around 80 or 85 mph, however they can show up early on. But the criteria for a hurricane is wind speed not the shape of the eye. It's not a swim suit competition for the title. Remember that. Gert is going out to sea. But what lingers in my mind is the steering currents were not as strong as they expected so it's slowly going out to sea, but it is forecast to go out to sea.

Now moving on to the 3 areas of interest.
Note only 1 currently is an Invest.
That will change.

Invest 91L

Invest 91L can seen below.
Beginning to possibly consolidate.

The 1st of the waves (91L) is forecast to go West.
After several wild model runs they have settled down some. has them up as always.
As always it can pull WNW at some point.

With some exceptions.
Most models take 91L into the Caribbean.
I don't want to speculate beyond that.
If it stays low it goes into Central America..
...or the Yucatan... 
If it stays high we wonder on the Gulf of Mexico.
Note I said "wonder" not "worry"
It's a long ways out still.

Note in that top screen you see a line out in the ocean? That should be Invest 92L but it's up to the NHC. Early discussion based on models shows this to be Florida Bahamas concern. Understand when you have multiple waves you have multiple scenarios and multiple intangibles and models do not work well with regard to so many intangibles without a closed center in any of these areas that are just waves so they need to be watched but not taken as a path set in stone. That said if you live in the Florida area it would be time well spent to go over your hurricane plans and have a plan for a Tropical Storm vs a plan for a Hurricane. As Bryan Norcross says an "executable plan" and start stocking up when you can at Publix or your local Dollar Store. The 2nd wave could be a Florida concern down the road, down the distant road.

Now we come to the last of this morning's 3 waves.

This is the wave that is a concern for me to be a big player.
But that's a stab in the dark still as it's far out.
The fact that there is already a box on it shows you that.

The only thing I can say with certain is this..
The area below WILL see development.

Why you ask is this so difficult for forecasters?
Did you really ask that?

Let's put it this way. Let's take the 2nd wave for this explanation. The forecast for this wave relies on Invest 91L doing certain things in both track, intensity and forward speed. It also takes into account that Wave #3 does NOT overtake wave number 2 and move faster than previously forecast. It's just way too many intangibles to take any model run seriously at this point. As time goes by.. one or two of them develop, they have a real center to base future runs off of and then we get better models but if those models don't verify then the other models don't really verify as we no longer have a tree falling in a forest anymore we have a traffic jam on the Tropical Highway known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. They are all converging at once and there are so many variables it's like trying to be certain five days out who is on first.

Nuff said.

So cut the gang at the NHC some slack over the next few days.
Don't fall a victim to hype.
Knowledge is power.

I'll be back later today to update my thoughts.
Any important information will be updated at the top.
Anything big gets its own new post.

Look how far away these 3 waves are...
... also we have fronts on the map as well.

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My bottom line below on the tropics today.

Gert is moving on...and so am I.

Lead wave Invest 91L is moving west and slowly coming together. IF it comes together faster it could pull more to the North, but if it continues pulling together slowly it will most likely move West into the Caribbean. From there again it depends on strength. If it stays weak it continues west and if it gets stronger it could try to shoot the Yucatan area around Cuba and be a concern up the road for areas in the GOM. Again it can do that and curve up into a frontal boundary and make landfall on the West coast of Florida near Tampa just as easily as be shoved west by a strong high towards Texas. It's way too soon to tell. All options are on the road down the road but in the short term...its moving West

2nd Wave... Middle Child... The middle wave wants to break from the pack and pull more to the North possibly avoiding the Islands or not... and for now seems to be a Florida Bahamas concern. Past that obviously we can talk about later today and tomorrow and the day after tomorrow.

3rd Wave ... Big Concern on this one. Any wave that has "tasted blood" and has aided in a situation that led to tragedy early on as it's departing Africa bears watching until it dies out and the NHC stops writing advisories. As much as I'm concerned about MYami (as we call it) and the 2nd wave I'm more concerned overall on this wave as it has the potential for potential to be realized. Then there's the wave over Africa with wings... and looks determined to make a big splash at the coming out party at Dakar. Stay tuned.

Models come and models go.
But good waves are not so easy to find.
We have some strong ones there and no El Nino.
Check out that link for Publix.
Shop accordingly. 
Don't panic.

Again.........there are more waves behind these three so let's stay focused on what we see not what we will see. But, I'm telling you there is a huge, big wave over Africa that will be late to this tropical party and we need to remember that.

No I'm not going all black and white like Drudge. In Drudge's world everything is black and white always, there are no shades of gray with him but this is the tropics and we do things colorfully in the tropics and with lost of musics. The palm fronds rustle and sometimes they are riffled by a strong breeze and they do more than rustle. And sometimes the whole palm tree sways and the palm fronds look like willows all bent over and then the storm passes and you pick up the pieces and rebuild. Sometimes the "pieces" are palm fronds scattered about and other times it's roof tiles or even the roof. But you can prepare and knowledge is power and you can't ignore the weather always. During those slow El Nino years people should have been stocking up on what they can on items on clearance and sale after the quiet hurricane season that had past. Home Depot always has stuff on sale... and as I said yesterday Dollar Stores sell most of everything you need on the lower end of the scale. No they don't sell scales or generators but they have things you can toss in a closet rather than panic and run to Publix and pray they have not been sold out. In which case you end up at lot's of Publix looking for your favorite brands of whatever that were already bought by the early paranoid, panic buyers when they first saw a red circle in the Atlantic about to get a name.

Nuff said...

I've been saying this for weeks... oh no really for months. Get a plan, prepare for hurricane season and be as they say at the NHC #HurricaneStrong.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... we will check back on the 3 waves later today.  For now ... make a plan, make a back up plan and hope and pray you won't have to use them. I will update with the newest model runs later today and go more into specifics. But worry on the wave that believes it can fly...

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At 9:55 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Where do it go
The rain with a name?
It gonna go
Where it already rained

At 4:11 AM, Anonymous Okeetee said...

Looks to me like the dry air mass these systems are going to hit will cause them to peter out before they even get started....true or false?


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