Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, August 08, 2017

UPDATED.... Franklin in BOC--- 99L ORANGE ----Watching the Tropics. FRANKLIN A TS.. INVEST 99L Still Exists .. Sunrise Thoughts From BobbiStorm

Update tonight. 
Franklin first and then Invest 99L

Sunset on TS Franklin as it hits water again.
Nice structure. Good banding.
Spinning nice.

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I'm posted the Dvorak loop all black and white above as you can see where the strongest energy is inside Franklin and you can see that as soon as it hits water "BOOM" the center spins up again with a burst of energy and this should lead to an intensifying period tonight. Will it become a Hurricane before it's second landfall? Maybe, it's a definite possibility as the water there is bathtub hot! You  might even be able to brew coffee or tea there. Something's brewing. We will see tomorrow how this plays out but crossing the Yucatan didn't seem to take much out of Franklin. He's very photogenic tonight and posting a few different images. On the Funktop you can see one green dot where the center of Franklin is as it hit water it just took off. Look quick above it's like seeing that green glow at sunset, hard to see but you gotta believe it's there.

Track wise nothing has changed with Franklin.

Now below we have Invest 99L.
NHC took out their orange crayon tonight.
40% in 5 days.
That really means on the 5th day... 

The Euro really likes it.
Models are up at
I want to wait a day or two before I believe any model.
Not the one that shows it coming close to Carolinas.
Nor the one that shows it going out to sea.
Need to see what it does in real time still.
Again the orange area is the formation zone.

Now I want you to look below at 99L.
Remember it was a very huge wave.
More a set of waves.
North to South it's long.
Sometimes one model latches on to one part.
And another model latches on to another part.

This could explain the differences in placement by the models.
And timing as well.
It has happened before.
Note the image on the left shows multiple centers.

When looking at the water vapor loop below understand a few things. We are watching 99L for development down the road so it's not about what you see now but what you might see. There is an ULL above 99L that is creating a sheared environment and inhibiting it's growth. You can see the ULL is diving down and if 99L ends up in a different location with relation to the ULL then the same ULL can ventilate it and the rapid intensification that the EURO shows could happen. A lot of IFs, ANDs and BUTs... here but I said "it could happen" but this loop should look different in five days.

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State of the Tropics Tuesday 
TS Franklin over land.
Invest 99L still there.
Franklin below..


Stay tuned.... 

Here in Carolina I watched the sunrise through my window.
Not much of a sunrise but still beautiful.
The various colors of the morning appear.
Shades of dark blue ....
...turning to light blue.
And then gray as it's raining today.

Lying in bed this morning watching the rain falling. Staring out my window, through the lace curtain at light filtering in through the pines behind where I live. For a little while, earlier, it came down off the roof like a waterfall making it hard to go back to sleep because I wanted to keep to watching the rain. Some people watch sunrises and others watch the rain.  Then I wanted to look at Franklin and wondered a bit if Invest 99L was still there and the next thing you know... I'm awake

That bright red area woke me up early this morning.

Sunrise over the tropics...

Close up you can watch the sun rise over Franklin

TS Franklin be a beautiful spinner.
Currently Franklin is over land.

And it's moving towards a 2nd landfall soon.
Can it ramp up to Hurricane Status?
It's not impossible as the water is hot.
However, it will have to work really hard.
Either way Franklin will be a strong TS.
And there can be flooding and that brings "issues"

Moving back to the United States a bit.

A cold front is draped across the East coast like an emerald necklace. Like a long 26 inch emerald necklace draped from Maine to Texas. And I do not mind the cooler temperatures. Actually I'm loving the cooler temperatures. And when I say "cool" I mean not topping out at 90 degrees every day and dipping into the high 60s at night a few days this week. Fronts amp up the ante in the tropics and shift the wind patterns around enough to stir the pot and get the coffee to taste just the way I like it.

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Note below you will see Franklin on the left below all pretty and tightly wound still and the rainfall totals projected on the right. Despite no named storm slamming into the East Coast there are heavy rain projected totals for the area anyway. Fronts dip down and then they stop, hang around the turn around and move back over the same area creating big rain "issues" over the cities that get hit coming and going.

But that early front brings issues to deal with and I want to point out we used to call "issues" problems, however in a "no worries" world we do no longer have problems just issues. That said there have been a lot of flooding problems across the South this year and tornadoes in Tulsa that just appeared out of nowhere. Blame it on the fronts that are moving (blessedly) way too early. Blame it on the drains that are not properly maintained. Blame it on government entities that don't talk to each other to make sure all the pumps are working properly and the NWS seemingly putting up warnings in real time after the street floods. If you want you can blame it on the eclipses and mercury retrogrades or even Putin, but if you don't keep the storm drains clean and the pumps working it floods a whole lot faster.

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First look at the loop above.
Then look at what the NHC said at 8 AM.

In the tropics Invest 99L keeps flaring up as if it wants some medal for effort and perhaps it deserves one as most the waves just gave up and ate the big dusty burger that SAL was serving. Calories you cannot really walk off at the gym. It's there in the right third of the loop shown above. You can see the dry air dipping down trying to give it a knock out blow but the EURO says NO it's gonna make it to our side of the world. Who knows? I know the Carolinas are watching due to it's latitude and the models. Maybe everyone should watch; why not as there isn't anything else to watch in the MDR right now. MDR means the "Main Development Region" as a few people have asked me.

Took the NHC forever to put out their 8 AM package this morning so I suppose there was a lot of discussion going on. The large ULL keeps spinning creating shear and you wonder where the Wicked Witch of the West is as the ULL seems to be the flying monkey flying over the same spot over and over. And Tropical Storm Franklin into the mix over the Yucatan. It still has a beautiful pocket of moisture. You will hear many of us call it an envelope or a pouch but that keeps it moist and moving towards it's goal and it's goal is Mexico.  Ironically if this wave had developed stronger and the front dipped more then it might have moved up to say Houston and dropped torrential rain on the bayou city and there would have been flooding. Almost looks a bit tropical as if some tropical depression moved ashore there. And the moisture from Franklin is adding moisture to the GOM and it is being pulled in bits and pieces ... adding more moisture into the GOM coastline...though the storm itself is moving WNW towards Mexico.

Franklin formed late and went West and yet ... Houston still got flooded. Mother Nature always finds a way doesn't she?

So let's go deep now on the tropics and get out of my head where my thoughts are bouncing around this morning as I have a lot to think on. I was going to go to Miami this week, but I put it off for a few reasons and perhaps I wanted a Staycation in the Carolinas this week and next? So let's look at the models. NOTE these models change frequently. Please read the previous post I wrote last night where I explained the conundrum the NHC is facing regarding their top two battles that never agree. The EURO is bullish on Invest 99L and the NHC upped the odds to 30% in the five day. As I said in the previous post do not obsess on the number, watch the pattern and the trend.

Yeah the models be crazy.
Yet we watch them.
We watch the waves.
We watch the sunrise.
Then we watch the sunset.

You see a pattern here?

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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At 7:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I know the Carolinas are watching due to it's latitude and the models." Were watching alright.....watching this GREAT cool summer/weather were having here in the deep South! Have had 20+ days with temps in the 80's instead of the steaming 90's we usually have in July and August! I apologize for my cynical attitude toward weather forecasters, but it's the ONLY profession I know where you can get FULL PAY and be dead wrong 50% of the time! You, however, have a GREAT site and enjoy coming here at least once a day to check it out!

At 6:14 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

You know my brother recently mentioned to me that Matt Moore gets millions of dollars to be a back up qb and everyone feels bad for him because they brought in the Jay guy and well somethings make no sense my friend. I used to love TWC but when they bought by NBC everything changed and don't even get me started on Teavana that was like heaven but got bought by Starbucks and I think Starbucks killed it off on purpose. Weather forecasting today will be looked back at and everyone will laugh how stupid everyone was in 2017 but it sure beats looking at a rock to see if it's wet to know if it rained last night or to see if it's covered by snow to know it's snowing so... you gotta give them some credit. Then again.... all those flash floods with warnings put up fast and they blame it on global warming when it turns out more than half of the pumps were broken. How do you have broken pumps in New Orleans going into the Hurricane Season? Someone there is getting paid way too much if you ask me for not doing their job and they should be FIRED! Thanks for your always great feedback and by the way they don't get paid much at the NHC or NWS that's why the directors always leave and end up at places like TWC. I guess NBC pays more money.


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