Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 06, 2017

90L 99L Tropical Discussion. Will Recon Go Into 90L as Planned or Will They Put That On Hold. Is 90L Going to Become Franklin? Colors, Music and Discussion.

I don't see no hurricane or tropical storm there.
A bunch of shaded areas and a lot of talk.
But bottom line this morning...
...nothing officially there.

Old school image I like:

New school image from newest sat up in the sky.

Brief update as of 11 AM.
Recon has been rescheduled for Monday.

Often times in life we complicate things in ways that are not necessary and yet we feel we need to show more detail and give more specifics. Every six hours the NHC puts out an update and everyone waits to see did they go up 10% or down 20% or did the orange circle go orange or is it red. What's the details? Does it really matter if 90L in the Caribbean is 70% or 80% when the NHC can send planes in (or not) and upgrade from 70% without going to 90%? And I remember a few 90% areas that never got a name so what is in a number I ask? But we love to watch waves or any area of convection that has the possibility of forming into a cyclone with a closed circulation moving with all of it's multiple areas of convection together in one direction. It's a thing...  Some love hurricanes, some hate hurricanes but it all starts at the same place. A tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic catches out attention in the same way a stalled out frontal boundary makes some people's hearts race. 

So let's take this apart easily and get on with the weekend. Let's start at the beginning and try to keep it simple. Like most love stories it started with a kiss. 

Rather than giving one specific wave in a wave train coming off of Africa I would show the area vs the specific wave.  People see the area vs the X usually and yet they are tracking an X as in a specific wave. Often it's more that an area is ripe for development and sometimes one wave develops in front of it or behind it and gets a name vs the original wave. It becomes a game of semantics that doesn't translate well to the general public.  It's a general area such as "MDR" "Cabo Verde Islands" or "SW Caribbean" that produces the named storm. Note the MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE THE STORM nor do they "KILL IT OFF" they look at possibilities and offer possible solutions with a real heavy emphasis on it being a projection and the NHC tries to make a forecast for the public. It's not an easy job and much gets lost in the translation. Especially when news outlets hype a wave vs an entity with a name or designation. In this case we have two Invest areas 90L and 99L that have been designated to study for chances of future development. It's that simple. If I was doing it I'd be more general and open up the crayola box a bit more. In a Snapchat world all people see is yellow or orange on the map anyway. Just my thoughts. I do Snap but it's mostly just for my family. 

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

There is something going on there in the Caribbean with the Invest known as 90L. There are also two Upper Level Lows creating shear tearing it apart every time it tries to build itself up. This process can be seen below. It's hanging in there well and as of 8 AM the NHC gives it a high 80% chance of forming in the next five days. It's just beginning to get "that look" but has a ways to go still.

jsl-animated.gif (720×480)

To the far right of the loop above you can see the SAL.
You can also see more waves moving westbound.
Think of the wave like a train.
The train continues moving even if the weather isn't great.
The wave is the passenger car.
The SAL is the caboose.
They move in tandem.

SAL.jpg (666×375)

Maybe it's more like a sailboat and an anchor.
If the anchor is dropped it's not going anywhere....

There are more waves coming off of Africa.
There is more SAL coming off of Africa.

Same satellite view below:

Showing the Water Vapor Loop so you can see the ULLs

wv-animated.gif (1120×480)

Not much has changed.
Do not be sucked in by a 10% up or down number.
It's a number we are watching the wave.
Don't get sucked in by long range models either.
Watch the wave. K.I.S.S.

It's partially about the wave. Can it come together and if so where? Does it have the right stuff and is it structured well as really a real named storm needs a good structured wave. It can't just go up and down willy nilly whenever it wants flaring up at night, falling apart and then looking good in the morning again. It needs consistency. Recon was scheduled to go into 90L and take a look around. Personally I'd prefer the Gulfstream Jet to sample the atmosphere. Why? Because meteorology is really a study of the atmosphere vs a specific wave, place on the map or model. Is the atmosphere really conducive to development is the question. But recon gets the data for the next model run with those incredibly wonderful dropsondes they drop into the tropical wave.

Further East is 99L a wave that has disappointed and it's making the new upgrade of the GFS also seeming so far to be disappointing. The Euro never loved it, the GFS did and so far the Euro is still beating the GFS. The models below are from the grid at Spaghetti Models and originally from Tropical Tidbits. The EURO always had it's money on 90L remember that.

99L is shown below:

90L below likely to become Franklin .. maybe.

Note both could affect land if they form.
Though 99L could become a fish storm.
90L forms and it hits land. 

And showing this image below as it shows a system of some sort down below in the BOC moving towards the Tex Mex area with emphasis on Mexico later in the week. That's a long range forecast map from a loop that is on that shows a week ahead in time. It's a good sign if it shows up there that something may form. It could be a Tropical Depression and never get the name Franklin, but we will know soon enough. 

If you really want to see the models.
Enjoy this cartoon and love the L Bar down in the corner.

Will either of these waves get the name Franklin?
Stay tuned... 
We will know soon enough which means eventually.
Time will tell...

I'm enjoying today and worrying on the tropics tomorrow.
The road to the beaches of OBX are open finally again.
And the weather is beautiful.
Hitting the road for the rest of the day.
I'll update if and when anything is upgraded.
Beyond shades of colors.

Here's an image.
It doesn't tell the story.
My daughter's friend's mother owns a wig shop.
That's an understatement as it's a famous company.
Here's a picture of me trying on a blonde wig.
Well blonde compared to my darker brown hair.
It's an image. It doesn't show how it moves.
It doesn't show how it feels or smells.
You get a general idea.
I also couldn't see when wearing it.
But looked cute.

Here's a two fer below.
An image and a map.
Usually, but not always, that portends an upgrade.

More than a feeling but not a for sure.

Besos BobbiStorm
Follow me on Twitter for faster updates.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

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