Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, July 31, 2017

UPDATED TS Emily Es No Mas. DEAD. TDish.... Stay tuned.... Makes Landfall on Anna Maria Island ... Tampa Bay. Weather is All Over South Florida. Need to Watch Out for Tornadoes That Could Spin Up and Localized Flooding.

Going to be brief here. Really.
Emily es no mas.
That means she is no more.
Newcomers to Florida need to learn some Spanish.
Newcomers to Florida need to know this was not really a TS.
Perhaps for a short, brief time this morning .. maybe.
The NHC made that call so it's "official"
So "Emily" Like "Cindy" is on the books.
And "Emily" like "Cindy" made landfall.
And "Emily" was downgraded.

I'm going to say what Larry Cosgrove said this morning to me. "Larry Cosgrove "TD 6" is actually an MCS along a cold front moving through Central Florida."  I don't make the call I just write here and disseminate information, in my own way, that the NHC has introduced, designated or upgraded. Even if I disagree and Lord knows old timers here know I often have been vocal in disagreeing. Often some west bound tropical wave that almost had an eye, banding and outflow was not upgraded and I was upset. But never have I seen anything like this that I can remember.  But as the stupid saying goes... "it is what is is" so it was Emily. 

Now it is worth saying that Emily may redevelop in the Atlantic around the Gulfstream as several models have proposed as a solution to the Invest that was.. The other day I said it showed a tantalizing solution and that is what I was talking about. That is why the Raleigh weather is covering Emily this afternoon with regard to it's effect on NC beaches in several days. Anything from stronger rip tides to more is a question until we see for sure what the remnants of Emily do after leaving Florida.

It is worth mentioning there was some localized flooding, a tree fell on a house where people lived and other assorted weather phenomenon associated with what might have briefly been a Tropical Depression embedded into a frontal boundary that wasn't even dead yet. Oh and Miami predictably got the worst of it weather wise and the wicked weather did make it into the Florida Keys as I said it would.

Rather than totally blast the NHC for upgrading a front to depression status let alone giving it the name Emily, that at this rate will remain a tropical name forever, I'll just say it's good to be able to joke around and talk with friends. And, I value their input tremendously. Larry Cosgrove is incredible in his grasp of global weather and intricate geography as well as obviously weather of all kind. Jim Williams is another one I respect tremendously. Friends I've met such as "@Crankyweatherguy" on Twitter show consistency and a depth of understanding complicated weather. Friends like Cody know what they are talking about and are fun to talk about... DaBuh, Sue... and never last but always high up there Mike. So many I respect such as Rob from Crown Weather and we all do what we do in a different way and help people understand what is going on. Nothing personal the people at the NHC are incredible, some are my friends, but their official package can be wanting sometimes especially these days.  New innovations have been good, but well .. let's just leave it here.. before i go there. It was a low... but one of the weakest and shortest lived Tropical Storms I have ever seen. I practically live at Spaghetti Models these days and once upon a time I used to practically live on the NHC site. That says a lot.. and I know they are trying. 

Can we just wake up tomorrow like that old Dallas Season when the previous season was just a bad dream. 

More so what really annoys me is they pull a misplaced yellow circle from the main page while covering "Tropical Storm Emily" which was basically a front with a small attached vortex and wicked weather.  Expect both to come back. A new wave coming off of Africa is a contender to try and make it past Sheriff SAL and the wave that fell apart has pulled itself together and is still chugging along without a yellow circle.  There is more disarray currently in how the NHC is doing things than there is at the White House and well... you know how that's been going. We like living by guidelines and rules when dealing with Tropical entities and explaining that to the public. Note to public in Tampa you haven't seen nothing if you think that's a real Tropical Storm. 

Continue to watch the tropics for more developments.
If you remember there was a Low to the East of Florida.
"Emily" may be hopping ENE to that low.
Transferring energy ... being kind here.
And the models did develop the Invest there previously.

I'll do a normal update tomorrow.
* * * 
If you slept late you can continue reading what happened today..

Tropical Storm Emily made landfall at Anna Maria Island.

For those of you not familiar with that spot...
..whose family didn't help develop and sell lots there in the 1920s.

It juts out there and at the mouth to Tampa Bay.
A real paradise on a day there is no Emily.
Well if you like stormy weather today would be the day!

Up close view of Emily from NRL

You can see it's curling up some and asserting itself.
The front is to the South and still pushing South.

Going to give this one to Mike as he's on top of it.
Well I suppose Emily is on top of Mike.

You can see banding that shows up on radar.
In those bands there could be waterspouts or tornadoes.
So just because it's a weak tropical storm don't count it out.

Another view of the track is shown below.

That's the Canadian Hurricane Center's track map.
Why are they tracking Emily?
It will impact areas near Canada down the road.

Currently it's moving at 9 MPH 
It is not "barreling" as I've heard it said on TV today.
I suppose that's sort of a literary license.
The front has pretty much stalled out.
Steering currents are there but weak.
It is not barreling anywhere.

Movement is East at 9 MPH.
Again this is a mute point as it's weather is moving everywhere.
Winds 45 MPH at the surface.
Worth point out there are stronger winds higher up.
If those winds can work their way down to the surface.
If... always an IF with regard to tropical entities.

The track and forecast strength intensity is basically an extrapolation of the previous forecast package so not much to say on that. Again . The explanation for the upgrade and the current condition of TS Emily is explained in the 11 AM Discussion from the NHC that you can read below. I highlighted the part that was most important.

The concerns here are localized flooding far from the center of Tropical Storm Emily as the "weather mass" has been sheared away to the South and has already spread across SE Florida. This set up kind of reminds me of Irene in 1999 that was headed towards Naples and her weather went right to the SE coast of Florida swamping Miami with tropical rains, flooding and some power outages. I don't expect that level of intensity in the Miami, Broward and Palm Beach area but this weather is moving as I type down into Monroe County. So while the "center" may come ashore near Tampa Bay it's weather is everywhere.

And another concern I have is that this sort of Tropical Storm in this area that is connected still to a frontal boundary often affects this part of Florida in October and November and they are prone to spinning up tornadoes. This set up is a bit different but similar enough to be concerned. And a bigger concern is the lack of concern as many have not heard about the upgrade and as they don't see a well defined storm they think the threat for any danger is minimal. It's way minimal than a Cat 3 Hurricane or even a Cat 1, however Florida often gets tornadoes as tropical systems cross the state from west to east. A good example of this was Tropical Storm Josephine in 1996.

Wrong time of year.
Formation involved a front.
Similar track.
Worth remembering.
At least 16 tornadoes formed from Josephine.

And far away from Emily in Miami the weather is volatile.
And cooler! First time they have not reached 90 in a while.
My friend posted this earlier from today on Facebook.

My brother sent me this image earlier from Miami.

So from Tampa to Melbourne...
From Miami down to the Florida Keys.
Everyone is in it because of Emily.

And note how far East the warning have moved below:

After crossing Florida Emily is forecast to regain strength.
As a minimal Tropical Storm and follow the models out to sea.
However, the slightest variance could bring it close to NE NC.
As in Outer Banks need to keep watching.
The power is sadly still out there now.
Read previous posts as a cable was damaged ..
...not a good story, a clearly marked cable.

So what is the take away here. At any point a tornado could spin up. There was a warning up earlier. The Sunshine Skyway Bridge is closed as they have experienced Tropical Storm Force winds. This was sent to me on Twitter earlier. Embedded in Emily are areas of strong, isolated weather. I haven't had a chance to check the details, but it shows a nice image of where and when Emily made landfall. Anna Maria Island, near Holmes Beach at the mouth of Tampa Bay.

Below shows a wide view

My wave out in the Atlantic that I've been watching is still there.
So watch Emily today but don't rule out that wave.
Sooner or could spin up into something.
Hey no one thought last night we would have Emily today.

rb-animated.gif (1120×480)

Don't say I didn't warn ya... 
Waves in search of warm water and lighter shear may be here soon.
As waves or something more.
Stay tuned.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps.. Oddly today is the anniversary of My Aunt Ada's passing. Ada was named after her mother Ida Ada who lived in Tampa. My Grandparents are buried in Tampa in the Old Jewish Cemetery there. My Great Uncle was involved in the early sales of both Holmes Beach and Anna Maria Island properties. Aunt Ada kept three of those lots for years until they were eventually sold. So... here's to Aunt Ada... and Uncle Jake and Uncle Morris who helped sell property there in the Roaring 20s. Actually I believe my Great Grandmother used to picnic there with family so... here's a nice view of Anna Maria Island's history and how it looks today. Then as now it's always been paradise and there seems some odd karma in this today. Luckily it's a very weak tropical storm. But stay on top of the weather before it's on top of you! 

As always in Florida there's a link to pirates ;)

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At 8:43 PM, Anonymous Donald Sprouse @ yahoo said...

I moved to 1956 speaking ENGLISH!!! since my forefathers arrived here in the 1700's. So excuse when I say NECOMERS TO THIS!!!! country need to learn ENGLISH and speak it in public! Too otherwise is RUDE. Donagar

At 10:04 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

Well thank you Donald. I'm also born and raised here many generations ..well back to 1800s but they lived in Florida way back when so I speak English (obviously) but Miami and Tampa have always been diverse places where other languages are often spoken and lingo gets picked up.

Wow 1956 that really makes you an old timer. I don't mean "old" vs you've been here a long time. Bet you've seen some tropical weather yourself. The 1960s were especially busy.

Personally it always bothered me growing up in Miami that the Spanish News Channel had the best graphics, way better than Channel 4, 6, 7 or 10 and I always wondered why they covered the storms better graphically. My Spanish was not good enough to follow what they were saying but I loved to look at the pictures.

Have a great day!

At 3:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There's NOTHING out there! Quiet as a church mouse! Dry air ALL OVER THE PLACE! Yet and still your trying to "dream" up a scenario whereby Hurricanes will be rolling toward the right after the other! STOP IT! Don't lower yourself to the level of those WEATHER CHANNEL geeks, who are paid LARGE sums of money to scare the public into thinks that there house, 10 miles inland, is about to fall into the Ocean!

At 6:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh, there is something out there now! My apologies! Except the chance of this disturbance getting eaten alive by that glob of dry air and wind sheer are about 100%!!!

At 8:11 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

it's worth remembering the models come out and show long term development of a wave. Then the media jumps on it and as far as TWC this is their time to cover tropical weather, soon they will be back to covering winter storms (that they name) so it's natural and also people want to see the tropics. Often because they were swamped by a storm surge or winds broke their windows when they were told a TS was weak and wouldn't become a Hurricane and then did. So people once burned become paranoid and want to know everything they can so TWC is feeding their need and yeah they get ratings.

Note the waves that are killed off early on by SAL often develop later. Franklin is an example of this as it was a weak wave that kept going. Hurricane Camille a different sort of storm also formed in this area from a wave that didn't develop until it did. So it's not over til it's over.

Early long range models are just hype. Often they oddly verify with a huge gap in between where some wave appears to die out but moves in stealth mode until it finds the right spot.

Lastly I really wish they would not highlight A WAVE vs the AREA as it's the area that is positive for development and produces a named storm not a model and often one wave gets the title and the other wave dies. Just my thoughts on your thoughts. Thanks for commenting.

At 8:14 AM, Blogger BobbiStorm said...

Let's look at it this way Donald never count out a wave because the models don't like it and insist it will fail. Models don't always show the reality of what will be. It's not about the models liking it sometimes, it's about the actual reality of the set up and if it's a great set up and the support is there it develops. Then the models come around and see it as a winner.


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