HEAT ALERTS - Take Them Seriously! Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic. EPAC Busy.. Solar Eclipse Stamps .. Hurricane History. Be Aware and Prepared

Those are the watches and warnings above.

The heat index as of 6 pm Friday is below:

A "cold front" will be here on Tuesday meaning the temperatures will go down below 90 degrees. You kind of take what you an get in July when you have warnings up for dangerous heat in your city. It's hard to understand how people fear hurricanes that can be prepared for and yet do not take high heat warnings seriously. More people die during these sweltering times as well as during the dead of winter yet they worry less on a hurricane because their city hasn't been hit in 20 years. Miami went from 1965 to 1992 before experiencing a real hurricane (Floyd in 1987 doesn't really count) and then a generation that experienced Andrew obsessed on hurricanes every hurricane season. And then people forget and after they forget they begin to believe their city doesn't really get hurricanes. Trust me after Hurricane Matthew people in Jacksonville won't have their guard down this hurricane season. But what about Tampa that hasn't had a direct hit in many years. Even Hurricane Donna that dealt them a tough hand made landfall to the south near Naples Florida.

http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/hurricane-donna-is-born

(It's so hot I chose this map above because it looked cool)

(Like a cool pool in the Florida Keys...)

The high temperature in many places causes a heat inversion trapping in the pollutants and pollen that may mess with your allergies. If you are prone to such problems stay inside in AC on those days or catch a flight out of town. Since catching a flight out of town is not always possible for most of us... stay home in AC. Take medication if you need and wait it out. Soon cold fronts will bring cooler temperatures at night and with patience the dog days of summer will give way to Fall.  I'm writing this blog a bit late today as I woke up sick with a rare asthma problem. I say rare as lately I haven't had any problems, but the weather has been problematic in Raleigh this July.

And in truth there isn't anything going on in the Atlantic Basin to speak of beyond tropical waves moving west under a sheet of SAL while the EPAC is on steroids this week. There are so many storms some of them do not fit on the NRL site. Usually when the EPAC is busy the Atlantic is not and you count a week to ten days before we see any action. There has been some talk of something forming close in during that time, so as always this time of year keep on top of your local weather source. In today's world with APPs on our phones there is no reason to be surprised by the weather. As a matter of fact my phone sends me weather warnings and that was programmed into my phone not something I do. So there is no excuse to be surprised by any sort of weather danger. How do you know the difference between feeling hot, edgy and tired and seriously being affected by the heat? Good rule of thumb below.

Err on the side of caution if you feel ill.

In Miami it's hot but there's always a breeze.

Between the perspiration and the breeze it's not bad.

But in places like Raleigh it's stifling hot today.

Fayetteville NC hit 101 degrees today.

Now to the tropics as they are today.

It's obvious we have strong waves in the Atlantic.

And the EPAC is BUSY

So busy.....

...see NRL below.

The models are below.

They are up on Spaghetti Models.

It's worth noting the Global Tropics Hazards Map shows possibilities.

The Tropical Formation Percentages shows purple.

Strong waves but .....

....stronger SAL for now....

However, the NHC erring on the advice of the models isn't buying it.

As always check their site as they are the bottom line.

http://nhc.noaa.gov

The map below shows the HUGE HIGH.

The suppressed SAL to it's South.

A busy EPAC

Euro:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm

GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpaNorm


Take Tampa for instance... You haven't seen afternoon thunderstorms until you have lived in Tampa. Deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes that snap and dance across the sky. Even for a person raised in Miami a good afternoon thunderstorm in Tampa catches your attention. There's a reason they call their ice hockey team Tampa Bay Lightning. And don't laugh about having an Ice Hockey team in Florida, because one of the coolest places to be in South Florida is at a Florida Panthers Game. My Grandma Mary grew up in Tampa, she once saw lightning come in through the fireplace scaring her so much that for years she hid under a bed when there was lightning. My Great Grandfather was said to sit on the porch outside watching the clouds form and watching the lightning. I guess we can see whose genes I got.

Read up a bit on hurricane history. 

A good place to begin if you don't own all his books like I do...

https://www.jaybarnesonhurricanes.com/

I'll probably reread the NC Hurricane History book this weekend that he wrote as I pretty much know the Florida book by heart. A cold glass of Iced Tea and a good book to read. A pretty good way to pass a hot day in July if you ask me.

I'm on meds right now so I'm a little all over the place, forgive me I'll be back to my normal self in a few days. I keep dreaming on Seattle but that's not happening and if anything I'll be "home" in Florida for a bit come August.  On days like today I'm happy to be here cooking for Shabbos and we have friends for dinner and all in all life is good. 

I wanted to share something here with you that I wish I had known two days ago at the post office. I came this close to buying some of the eclipse stamps on sale to send out a package to a friend of mine in it's path who has been a bit crazy on the eclipse passing over Charleston. Who knew they change colors. Is that awesome? I saw it in my feed earlier today. If anyone has kids or grandchildren who like interesting stamps this would be the one to use if you are sending them a birthday card. Yes, some people still do that...

I know I'm going to try and buy some on Monday.

I love stamps and I have some very scientific minded grandchildren.

Okay last year I send my grandson a tee shirt with germs on it.

Well, he refers to them as bacteria.

Hard to beat that......

Somehow Lego doesn't really cut it.

Stay tuned.........

The good news for tropical lovers is that online today people have been arguing about pre season forecasts regarding this hurricane season. They are arguing whether Don would have gotten a name years ago and if MJO will ever show up in the Atlantic. From years of observing meteorology friends I can honestly say when it gets mean online... we are about two weeks to go before the Atlantic comes alive. Have a wonderful weekend, may you be surrounded by love and have the basics you need and a little more to enjoy life. Stay cool... Fall is coming. And, along with Fall comes football and real hurricanes.

We are deep in the heart of Summer