A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Sunday, July 14, 2019
Barry Raining Itself Out... NYC Lights Come Back On.... Heat Wave City This Week in the USA.
The rains from Barry.....
... as High Pressure and Hot Weather take control of the Country.
But for now Barry is the only official game in town.
Nice waves out in the Atlantic.
If they were not strong waves...........
...they would not be there.
They would have been squashed by the High.
Blown apart by shear.
But they are still there.
Weak but they have a pulse.
No model support tho...
Speaking of coming out of darkness....
If you have ever lived in NYC and I have....
...you know this is an amazing picture.
Seen in everywhere but haven't seen who caught the moment.
The canyons of Manhattan...
Illusions of life and lights and motion.
Suddenly grinds to a halt.
The lights go out.
Life goes on in the dark.
The best of NYC was on display last night.
Despite the lack of lights.
I guess this is what they call a New York moment. After being trapped on the F for an hour because of the power outage I emerged to see dark restaurants & traffic lights, civilians directing traffic, & an evacuated Carnegie Hall concert happening in the street. #nyc#Blackoutpic.twitter.com/3p9UWtRrel
In a month of so we will have Atlantic Hurricanes.
Maybe 3 weeks...
10 days til teasing Invests in the tropics there.
More Homegrown popping up?
Who really knows.
So dance on....
... have a good Sunday.
Not gonna rant on 3 hour Barry.
Barry not worth it.
Weather IS the issue.
Flooding and tornado threat persist.
So pay attention if you are in the warned area.
As for Barry.
One of the more memorable videos around.
BARRY IMPACTS ON DAUPHIN ISLAND: Locals tell me this is why it’s so important to prepare early. Here on the west end anything can happen. Andy Sims shared this video with me on the way out of the west end. Our SUV couldn’t make it this far with current road conditions @mynbc15pic.twitter.com/EBXModd6Jm
Models Show Possible Development Coming Soon. Are You Prepared? GOM & Off East Coast Possible. Strong New African Waves. Shear Decreasing. Barbara Tropical Storm Will Her Remnants Mess with Hawaii? Cosme in EPAC Coming Soon. This July Feels Like August.
There is so little going on and yet so much to talk about. Currently there is nothing in the Atlantic Basin. Barbara in the Pacific is a tropical storm and a system behind Barbara will soon form and become Cosme over the new few days. As I mentioned yesterday models are showing areas where possible problems could arise in the future. We have gone from models seeing nothing to models seeing lots of different things. That's how things work this time of year when things appear suddenly, sometimes develop and sometimes to not but either way they are part of the process for the next tropical system.
Purple splotches off the African coast appear.
The waves have been extremely healthy.
As I have said over and over.
We don't latch onto one wave.
We watch the process build.
Each wave leaves the environment a bit juicier.
The next wave has a better chance.
And on and on it goes.
Nicely spaced out waves I may add.
So we know SAL is out there...
..and shear has been there.
So where is the shear now?
Well the problem is shown in blue dotted circles.
South of the red shear zone there's weaker shear.
In the area from the Yucatan up into the E GOM shear lessens.
The image below shows us this is where July systems form.
There are always weak opportunities for tropical formation in July.
And the models are sniffing out those opportunities today.
The GFS above shows moisture in the E GOM
Off the coast of the Carolinas something is going on.
Below the EURO points to the area in the E GOM.
The EURO closes off a system of some kind . . .
Just South of the FL Panhandle.
I could show you endless models.
Today they are not really that important.
What is important is the reality that things are changing.
As they are want to do in July.
My issue with July this year is it feels more like August.
Cicadas are singing in early July in Raleigh.
Crepe Myrtle trees are flush with flowers...
May felt like June.
June felt like July.
July feels like August.
Some years development appears earlier than normal.
Will something form in the Gulf of Mexico?
It's very likely.
The possibilities are there....
...as well as off the East Coast.
Much depends on what the front is like once it's here.
And as always the high.
Mike puts it well in this post this morning.
Time will tell.
Dabuh as always tells it his way.
We all tell it our own way :)
Again treat this period as if it was later in July.
Climo shows patterns.
But each year is different.
It's kind of like those heat indexes.
It may be 93 but it feels like 99 degrees.
Yesterday it felt like 100 degrees in Raleigh.
Trust me IT FELT LIKE 100 DEGREES.
And then storms exploded and it cooled off ten degrees.
Fayetteville NC actually hit 98.
It tied a record from 1953 the year of Hurricane Barbara.
Many records this summer go back to 1953.
I've mentioned this in previous blogs.
The extreme heat in 1953 gave us August hurricanes.
This is similar to people complaining on Potential Tropical Cyclone Warnings that the NHC has been using over the last few years. Some like them, some hate them, some worry they set people up to not understand the potential was there but it didn't form. I tend to believe anyone who is paying attention and cares learns what the alert is and that it is potential vs a Hurricane Warning for Chantal that is on the satellite loops and there is a cone aimed at the East Coast. There is no Chantal....just using it as an example here. Knowledge is power it's that simple. I'd rather know a storm could form and proceed accordingly than not know. And, I'd rather know LA is about to feel a strong 3.4 earthquake than to suddenly feel the ground move and not know if it's going to top out at 4.0 or 7.0. You'd think an App would allow YOU to set it to where YOU wish the bar be set. Just saying.
Note the last wave that was there went to Florida later.
I'm just saying in Miami we learn to watch tropical waves.
Updated Monday AM July. SAL is in Charge of the East Atlantic. Waves Keep Rolling Off of Africa. Models Suggest Development Close In Along GOM of "Something" and Area E of FL Should be Watched. How Are You Beating the Heat? A Trip to Siler City in NC and a Look Back at 2012 A Year of Heat Waves, Derechos and Finally Hurricane Sandy.
Well if you have any surfer friends on the West Coast.
They care. Surf's up there!
Want to know what's going on in the weather?
Ask a surfer they always know.
It's wave season in the tropics.
Tropical Wave Season that is....
In the Atlantic Basin...
Lot's of areas to watch today.
The coast of the GOM is once again being watched.
Yesterday Satellite view below
Today's satellite view below.
GOM bloby area flirting with the water.
Convective swath in the Atlantic.
That's Westbound by the way.
Westbound across FL into the GOM.
Atlantic Tropical Wave still there...
...despite Saharan Dust to it's North.
July in the Tropics.
Many GOM storms started out E of Florida.
Katrina to name one.
Katrina a rare hurricane to mention.
Again they don't always form near Africa.
1935 another hurricane formed in the same spot.
Tropical systems can develop this way..
...from convection that moves Westbound.
So keep watching.
But enjoy a stellar July 4th Week!
Note how the energy moves about.
Surges, oozes.
Very fluid.
Watery fireworks.
Moist, noticeable ITCZ
Surging slowly West.
Lifts over time.
So what do we think on today?
1. It's worth watching the area close in along the Gulf of Mexico for possible development down the road very close in. Models regularly develop something, but nothing tremendously strong. But even a slow moving wet mess can make misery for many as we learned a few weeks ago. Out in the Atlantic to the East of Florida is an area where pressures are lowering as pressures to the North of it are high and that usually allows pressures to drop to the South of said strong high pressure. Every day in every way there is more color in that area off of Florida and more moisture lingering over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Officially nothing is happening according to the NHC.
2. It's also worth noting that even though the waves coming off of Africa are falling victim to the strong SAL now in control of the East Atlantic they are flaring up as they move into the Caribbean. This mornings discussion from the NHC spoke of a wave moving through the Islands kicking up some weather. Seems as strong as SAL is it's not totally killing the waves off as much as we would like.
3. I know it's hot. Everyone's talking about it. Maybe that's what adds to the hot air? Embrace the heat ;) Enjoy a cold drink or a dip in the pool or just stay home and keep taking cold showers. The struggle is real but there's always a way to enjoy the day. Often it involves Ice Cream ;)
I'm putting up some thoughts and links to actual research on topics we have seen tossed about as both click bait and headlines during these quiet days in the tropics. There is so much reposting of the same headlines regarding the possible arrivals of El Nino before Santa Claus is even done making your newest toy. There are headlines about cool water by Africa much cooler than last year and that would mean less hurricanes in total than last year. With or without cool water by Africa or a possibly developing El Nino the chance of having as powerfully, active a year as 2017 is slim to none for any number of reasons. In truth....there are so many factors that need to come together to have a busy hurricane season with storms strong enough to make it across the Atlantic Basin and make landfall along the Atlantic Coast. Often it's easier to hit the Caribbean Islands if Cape Verde storms are in play, but then again it's just as easy for them to become Fish storms swimming far away from even Bermuda. And, then you have to worry on hurricanes that form in the Caribbean and move North such as Hurricane Sandy, Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina that formed just off of Florida and moved West into the Gulf of Mexico.
Let's look at the El Nino factor. Are we heading into an El Nino Year or is this a Neutral year? El Nino is called El Nino because we tend to expect him to show up the same way holiday decorations show up in November heading into the Christmas Season. It's not called Juno or Julio it's called El Nino for a reason. And, some years such as 1997 El Nino shows up whenever he wants to... wherever he wants to. But the 1997 El Nino was just as rare as the busy hurricane season of 1995 and the crazy intense hurricane season of 2017 when a hurricane couldn't form without ending up a Major Hurricane.
For the record 1997 was the Mother of El Ninos.
1995 was considered a weak El Nino year.
2017 was considered a weak La Nina year.
The jury is still out on 2018.
You can look through the lists below and read up on El Nino and La Nina and the various Neutral years.
Where are we currently? We are waiting to see what actually happens. But, despite what is happening people keep reposting, rewriting the same articles that were passed around last week and the week before that. Currently we are not there yet...
No real stand out orange red pool of water.
Some warm color off of Peru.
A bit of cold blue water by Chile.
A warm pool of water East of Spain.
Cool blue waters around 15 N.
Yellow warmer water around 5N
Hey warm water off the E coast of Brazil..
Let's compare this to other years.
Whoah!
You can see how different this year is from those above.
Will our hurricane season heat up in the same way or does that not factor into analog discussion? There are so many ways to slice and dice historical weather. Let's look at 2012 another year with a historical Heat Wave along the Mid Atlantic. Actually a derecho hit the same area and it looked like the end of the world. Links below show that info.
Time will tell but the real story will be told in August when historically the East Atlantic Warms up and SAL wanes enough after wave after wave moistens up the atmosphere trying to make a moist, warm atmosphere for August and September tropical waves coming off of Africa. SAL is making big headlines. What the articles don't tell you is June and July are to SAL what September is to the Hurricane Season; this is SAL's time of year. SAL is extremely strong this year. Oddly waves coming off of Africa are just as stubbornly strong for June and early July. Again time will tell. We are not there yet.
2012 below.
Look closer.
Looks familiar doesn't it?
Let's look at this year currently.
Basically pretty normal.
Stronger than average.
Exact time of year we deal with SAL.
Heat Alerts a bit early.
So let's look back at 2012 as a year with a similar early, strong heat wave in late June and July. It turns out we were dealing with strong Saharan Dust outbreaks that year and there were studies done then that are worth reading up on if you have the time and would like to sit a spell in the AC while drinking Iced Tea (Sweet of course) and maybe use a good meteorological dictionary. It's not that hard a report to understand. Good work.
Note it says that when SAL is strong it inhibits sunlight and the water off of Africa is noticeably cooler. Makes sense. Note that despite the strong SAL and the various other aspects that affect Hurricane Season 2012 turned out to be a dangerous year for a good part of the Atlantic Basin especially with regard to the Mid Atlantic Coast that was besieged by numerous heat alerts and derechos as well as Saharan Dust making beautiful tropical colored sunsets in South Florida and beyond.
Looking back at my own blog you'll see I was concerned about the weather events in the Mid Atlantic and reminding readers that the 1954 Hurricane Season showed the Mid Atlantic being besieged by Hurricanes. We had strong weather in Iowa (flooding, storms), waves coming off Africa early succumbing to SAL and what apparently was record heat in Raleigh matching patterns for 1954 the same time of year as last week's "epic" heat wave in Raleigh. Nothing new under the sun really. But patterns do exist and need to be watched carefully to see if they repeat but with their own unique spin on a remake of other infamous hurricane seasons.
2012 had a virtual tropical buffet of all you can eat storms both weak and strong storms, Fish Storms that developed when the SAL waned and zoomed up harmlessly into the East Atlantic and then when the EPAC season waned Hurricane Sandy formed in the Caribbean, trashed Cuba, threatened Florida and took aim on the Mid Atlantic States making historic impacts on the beaches of New Jersey and New York. A hurricane to remember. But earlier in the summer we were worried on historic heat and derechos and making jokes about SAL and how beautiful the sunsets were in June and July. Then things changed.
As always time will tell.
1994 and 1995
Note commonality.
East Atlantic storms form later in the season.
Almost always.
Even weak systems can cause misery.
An excellent compare and contrast hurricane research study is posted below as relates to the image above from said report. The report compares the 1994 hurricane season to the busier 1995 hurricane season. This is what we do basically we study and research and try to figure out how to better warn people when a hurricane is actually on the map and tracking towards a possible landfall. This year may be a way quieter year with less ACE as it's doubtful we will have as many hurricanes let alone as many major hurricanes as 2017 produced. However as always time will tell and we won't know until the year is over. And, then .... we will study the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season for clues to better warn people in 2019; maybe finally figuring out the holy grail of better being able to predict rapid intensification. This is what meteorologists do... they study, they research, they compare notes, collaborate and re-evaluate what we knew in the past with what we know now.
We compare, we contrast, we complain it's slow then we complain we can't keep up because it's so busy. Nothing new under the sun. We wait for summer to begin, then we count down the days until cooler weather in the Fall. Are we ever really happy? Sometimes I wonder...
Today was a beautiful, extremely hot day in Raleigh. It was record breaking hot in many places especially along the East Coast. The press getting a vacation from ongoing polarizing news stories from the left to the right camps is suddenly talking about weather. Really, I'd rather talk weather than politics any day.
I went for a ride with my husband out towards Pittsboro where I got some awesome books at one of the best used book stores around. We then drove out to Siler City as I've always wondered what was such a big deal about Siler City as Andy Griffith was always going there on the Andy Griffith Show. It was a nice drive, rolling hills, forested areas, farms and apparently the actress who played Aunt Bee is buried there. Now I know the rest of the story. Cross that one off my Bucket List. It's changed a lot since Aunt Bee died as the Walmart moved in and it's the busiest part of town... the bank was busy, the Subway was busy and well things change but things don't change all that much.
(She was in the Day the Earth Stood Still??? Wow!!)
Nice day.........
This is July 4th Week... some people took off this weekend, some took off next weekend and some if they can are just taking off the whole week! Jordan Lake on the way back was busy with boaters, hawks and eagles circling in the sky while I watched the clouds fly by. North Carolina is as beautiful and real as Aunt Bee said it was ... and even if it was 94 degres with a heat index of 105 the AC was cool, the view was beautiful and listen it's summer. This is what happens in the summer. It gets hot. And, then it gets not so hot. Then cold fronts try to move again just as tropical waves really begin to find their groove and suddenly no one is talking about Cousin SAL anymore. The El Nino discussion will continue until he either arrives on time, early or not really at all.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Ps.......... Keep watching the Gulf of Mexico very close in and the area off the East Coast that shows promise for some development. Enjoy those colorful sunsets, they don't last forever; the same way the fireflies of June disappear in July stronger waves begin to be contenders as we move towards August. Have a wonderful July! I'm making a late night dinner of BBQ Chicken, fresh corn from the Piggly Wiggly in Pittsboro and a beautiful sald. Oh... Sweet Potatoes also! Y'all come back now real soon. Perhaps we will eventually have something to talk about; even an Invest or a weak kneed tropical storm.
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
