Models Show Possible Development Coming Soon. Are You Prepared? GOM & Off East Coast Possible. Strong New African Waves. Shear Decreasing. Barbara Tropical Storm Will Her Remnants Mess with Hawaii? Cosme in EPAC Coming Soon. This July Feels Like August.
There is so little going on and yet so much to talk about. Currently there is nothing in the Atlantic Basin. Barbara in the Pacific is a tropical storm and a system behind Barbara will soon form and become Cosme over the new few days. As I mentioned yesterday models are showing areas where possible problems could arise in the future. We have gone from models seeing nothing to models seeing lots of different things. That's how things work this time of year when things appear suddenly, sometimes develop and sometimes to not but either way they are part of the process for the next tropical system.
Purple splotches off the African coast appear.
The waves have been extremely healthy.
As I have said over and over.
We don't latch onto one wave.
We watch the process build.
Each wave leaves the environment a bit juicier.
The next wave has a better chance.
And on and on it goes.
Nicely spaced out waves I may add.
So we know SAL is out there...
..and shear has been there.
So where is the shear now?
Well the problem is shown in blue dotted circles.
South of the red shear zone there's weaker shear.
In the area from the Yucatan up into the E GOM shear lessens.
The image below shows us this is where July systems form.
There are always weak opportunities for tropical formation in July.
And the models are sniffing out those opportunities today.
The GFS above shows moisture in the E GOM
Off the coast of the Carolinas something is going on.
Below the EURO points to the area in the E GOM.
The EURO closes off a system of some kind . . .
Just South of the FL Panhandle.
I could show you endless models.
Today they are not really that important.
What is important is the reality that things are changing.
As they are want to do in July.
My issue with July this year is it feels more like August.
Cicadas are singing in early July in Raleigh.
Crepe Myrtle trees are flush with flowers...
May felt like June.
June felt like July.
July feels like August.
Some years development appears earlier than normal.
Will something form in the Gulf of Mexico?
It's very likely.
The possibilities are there....
...as well as off the East Coast.
Much depends on what the front is like once it's here.
And as always the high.
Mike puts it well in this post this morning.
Time will tell.
Dabuh as always tells it his way.
We all tell it our own way :)
Again treat this period as if it was later in July.
Climo shows patterns.
But each year is different.
It's kind of like those heat indexes.
It may be 93 but it feels like 99 degrees.
Yesterday it felt like 100 degrees in Raleigh.
Trust me IT FELT LIKE 100 DEGREES.
And then storms exploded and it cooled off ten degrees.
Fayetteville NC actually hit 98.
It tied a record from 1953 the year of Hurricane Barbara.
Many records this summer go back to 1953.
I've mentioned this in previous blogs.
The extreme heat in 1953 gave us August hurricanes.
Off the East Coast... Barbara 1953 shown below
As for Barbara and the East Pacific.
Remember once lit it's been a fire sale going on.
In the East Pacific we have Barbara and Cosme forming.
Barbara is now a Tropical Storm.
You can see Barbara still and the area behind Barbara.
With regard to Hawaii and the remnants of Barbara
Huge amounts of tropical moisture there can cause flooding and mudslides.
While Hurricane Barbara won't visit....
...her remnants will.
And we often see much damage from this set up.
I want to mention the earthquake in South California.
The earthquake did not HIT LA.
But LA shook and people were nervous.
And it's possible the earthquake was a fore shock to a larger one.
In hopes of warning people and was put out.
The app did not go off.
The reason was that the app was set too low.
This created a storm of controversy...
....especially as people were already shaken up by the Quake.
Trust me when you live there and I did...
...and the ground starts moving and things begin to swing.
It shakes you up a bit.
This is similar to people complaining on Potential Tropical Cyclone Warnings that the NHC has been using over the last few years. Some like them, some hate them, some worry they set people up to not understand the potential was there but it didn't form. I tend to believe anyone who is paying attention and cares learns what the alert is and that it is potential vs a Hurricane Warning for Chantal that is on the satellite loops and there is a cone aimed at the East Coast. There is no Chantal....just using it as an example here. Knowledge is power it's that simple. I'd rather know a storm could form and proceed accordingly than not know. And, I'd rather know LA is about to feel a strong 3.4 earthquake than to suddenly feel the ground move and not know if it's going to top out at 4.0 or 7.0. You'd think an App would allow YOU to set it to where YOU wish the bar be set. Just saying.
Note the last wave that was there went to Florida later.
I'm just saying in Miami we learn to watch tropical waves.
We know they don't all develop.
We worry on that one that does and moves our way.
Last wave, next wave.
Any wave .. it's still tropical weather to me.
As for the much discussed possible Barry in the GOM.
Maybe...
Barry in the Bahamas would really sound better.
But what happens happens.
I'm watching.
I'll update the blog if something pops up.
Til then resting and drinking tea.
Under the weather today...
Fighting off a cold.
Let's see who wins.
Summer colds are the worst...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter or Instagram.
With that said know tropical waves exist.
There have been many of them.
Eventually we will move from tropical waves to tropical storms.
From tropical storms to hurricanes.
It's good to know and pay attention to their movement.
Patterns repeat.
Labels: Barbara, Barry, Cosme, hot, hurricaneseason, models, summer, tropics, weather
posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:05 AM
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