Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Barry Raining Itself Out... NYC Lights Come Back On.... Heat Wave City This Week in the USA.


The rains from Barry.....
... as High Pressure and Hot Weather take control of the Country.


Windy gets better and better.
So many incredible sites online.

Let's get Barry over with....
Yes 11.5 Million as per TWC under Flood Alerts.
Hopefully this doesn't get worse.
So far so good.
So far as lucky as we thought we'd be.
As we prayed it would be....


Barry will get downgraded soon.
Remnant Low will be it's future name.
The flood threat remains.
And those tornadoes I told you about....
..that threat ramps up as he moves inland.

But for now Barry is the only official game in town.


Nice waves out in the Atlantic.

If they were not strong waves...........
...they would not be there.
They would have been squashed by the High.
Blown apart by shear.
But they are still there.
Weak but they have a pulse.
No model support tho...


Speaking of coming out of darkness.... 

If you have ever lived in NYC and I have....
...you know this is an amazing picture.
Seen in everywhere but haven't seen who caught the moment.


The canyons of Manhattan...
Illusions of life and lights and motion.
Suddenly grinds to a halt.
The lights go out.
Life goes on in the dark.


The best of NYC was on display last night.
Despite the lack of lights.

The lights came back on .....





What more can you say?

Having that sort of Sunday Morning.
I have hot coffee... but want cold coffee.
This is easy to solve....
Can't decide if I want Avocado Toast or...
...eggs and grits.
Common problem for me.........
Trying to navigate my travel schedule.
Also common problem for me.
Need to pack... but not yet.
Maybe buy a new bathing suit?

It's very very very very hot.
I remember saying that in 1989.
It got cooler when I hit Santa Cruz on that trip.
Santa Cruz not on my dance card.
Maybe Seattle in the Fall.
Haven't seen Autumn colors there yet.

Watched my daughter dance on Instagram.
Best friend's big family party.
South Beach :)
No you can't see those pictures ....
Censored ;)

It's hot and soon the flip will be switched.
We are doing our usual August heat wave in July.
In a month of so we will have Atlantic Hurricanes.
Maybe 3 weeks... 
10 days til teasing Invests in the tropics there.
More Homegrown popping up?
Who really knows.

So dance on....
... have a good Sunday.

Not gonna rant on 3 hour Barry.
Barry not worth it.
Weather IS the issue.
Flooding and tornado threat persist.
So pay attention if you are in the warned area.

As for Barry.
One of the more memorable videos around.


Note this was Dauphin Island not in New Orleans

Having lived in Miami, LA an NYC I wonder.
Was this an accident?
Someone overslept?
Hoping to write off the car for insurance.
(sorry but I've seen some odd things)
Please forgive me.....

End result.
Car there but buried in the sand.


As for people complaining that we take pictures of flooding...



Nothing new about that.
Don't blame it on social media.
It's just way easier now......
It's been happening since we all wanted our Kodak moment ;)



And much more up close and personal.
Jay Barnes. Awesome books.
Words, data, facts, images.
Images caught by people witnessing history.
Saving hurricane history moments forever in time.
Nothing new there.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Lots of weather, food and life pictures there.


https://www.instagram.com/bobbistorm/



Ps.......In my world in North Carolina it's gonna be hot, real hot.
Going out early before it's too hot to eat Avocado Toast ;)




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:02 AM 0 comments

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Tropical Storm Barry...Hard Facts, Discussions and Reality Bites. Barry's Barely Crawling. Barry Needs To Wrap and Move To Be SURE of End Results. 93L Is a Sign of Things To Come... Loops, Links to Save For Future Use This Hurricane Season.


11 PM


Compare and contrast with earlier info. 
Will update Friday Morning before 9 AM.


Cone and Update package at 8 PM.
Spoiler Alert.
Barry didn't make it's forecast point.
Now "moving" at 3 MPH W
'
While this cone is a great product.
It really does a poor job of explaining who will get weather.
And weather is the name of the game.
And Barry is huge... unless he wraps up tight.
The weather is everywhere.
That's a problem this blog post explains.



So let's talk about Tropical Storm Barry.
Funny how the cone looks so neat and clear cut.
There is nothing neat about Barry.
Barry is so unkempt he looks like my nephew at 15 years old.
Seriously looking at the cone is misleading.

Why? 
Because WEATHER is EVERYWHERE......
The cone follows the CENTER of the track.


The cone is tracking the center of the storm.
Read the fine print.

Weather is and will be everywhere.


This is a mess.
And it's impact is going to be wide and far reaching.
It is not Hurricane Andrew or Michael.


I doubt it will ever get it's act together.
But I could be wrong.
The "center" is the area devoid of weather by the way.

Where is the weather you ask?


Side by side.
You see.... where the big V is....
Not that huge mass near Texas.
Not the part that is lunging into the NE GOM
Looks like more of an Extratropical Storm in a way.


Hmmmmnnnnn

This is what makes Tropical Weather interesting.
But it's been slow going.
After yesterday this is truly how I felt.


Truly. Honestly.


Maybe Barry broke Twitter :(

I took the day off as had been planned.
Good day as Twitter took the day off too.
I shopped. 
Nespresso Boutique.
Victoria's Secret
Sephora
Nordstrom

I had lunch at Sweet Frog Frozen Yogurt.

I feel refreshed thankfully.
So going slow with Barry for now.
Because Barry is moving slow.

So giving you my thoughts and some links.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=
G16&sector=gm&band=02&length=36

Long link.
This IS the CENTER of BARRY


Wide view of the weather associated with Barry.


Tropical Storm Barry.
Taking up most of the Gulf of Mexico.
Trying to strengthen.
From the blog post earlier today.


Compare advisories and track.
Barry moved .3 W in six hours.
Forecast movement will be 5 MPH . . .
Some models show Barry bobbling around there for days.
Others show different solutions.
We are entering into Spaghetti Models territory
www.spaghettimodels.com


Why are they beginning to go crazy?
Because Barry is barely moving.
Movement impacts track and intensity.
We need to stop and breathe for a minute.

If you are in the Cone or near the Cone...
If your local NWS says you will be impacted in some way.
Prepare accordingly.
But NOTHING is LOCKED IN with this storm.
Not until it becomes a full whole round storm.
Not until it moves more than 5 mph.
Not until it intensifies.
Read my previous discussion on Earl 1998.
This may look worse than Earl.
And I know a few forecasters there that thought ....
...that nothing would ever look as bad as Earl!

Maybe Barry will surprise us all.
The BIG surprise may be TORNADOES.
Once inland especially in areas of elevation...
Tornadoes may spin up everywhere.
And remember as Barry began over land...
...Barry may look better over land.
I have seen that happen more than once with similar storms.

The reality here of Tropical Storm Barry is that the NHC is erring on the side of caution to protect lives and help people secure their property in the path of Barry. And, to be honest when people here NEW ORLEANS everyone perks up the way they do when a Hurricane looks like it's wants to do South Beach and people here MIAMI. Suddenly everyone is interested in what is going on with Barry and to be clear it will mostly impact small bayou towns and back woods sort of places that you never hear anything about. And, really God Bless the Cajun Navy because they are already gearing up to go out after Barry makes his move... to help rescue and save lives.

Low lying areas are more prone to flooding and and there could be much flooding after Barry moves towards landfall. Should Barry make continue crawling along to the West and impact the borderlands of the Sabine River area know there's a huge swamp there, bayous and backwoods and it's pretty much the same landscape you find along the Central Louisiana coastline and inland a ways. I still think the Vermillion Bay area will feel Barry however unless and until when Barry's eye tightens up Barry is a whole mess of weather moving slowly, gathering moisture and at some point some steering current will catch it's attention and grab it.

Until that happens take any and every model with a lot of salt. I don't mean just a bit of salt, I'm talking more than you would use to salt the rim of a Margarita!  Why you ask? Because if a storm like Barry dawdles too long it misses the doorway to the North and a door can slam shut and a new window will open eventually. Also when you have a storm the size of a double wide on a highway it's harder to turn and it moves slower than if it wraps into a neat little borderline hurricane and moves along zippy like as a 2019 Toyota Camry. Barry is never going to be a Lexus so let's go with a Camry; my best friend drives a late model Camry and she's afraid to take it very far and it needs work but it's a good car all in all.

Use these sites. Go to the movies. Stimulate the economy. Breathe and take a look at Barry tomorrow morning. Unless you live in warned areas then act accordingly. Here are some links you may enjoy using.

www.hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com
https://spaghettimodels.com/ check out his Facebook Page Lives.
https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/
https://www.windy.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ Use his satellite loops and model links.. listen to his videos.
https://www.aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=mgm&type=wv&date= play with it..
https://earth.nullschool.net/
www.crownweather.com
www.flhurricane.com  has a good message board and many links.
www.hurricanecity.com
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=09&length=36

Long link...great site play with it I like it better than other popular sites.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=continental-southconus-ntmicro-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

As for Invest 93L
It's unique to have a system in the MDR it's a sign of things to come.
Stock up now on hurricane supplies in FL, GOM, SE Coast... don't say I didn't warn ya..




I'll be back when there is real new info.
I wanted to leave you with links and loops.
Thoughts and realities.

I was a bit silly earlier and that's good.
The previous Live Blog is GOOD.

But this is the basic down to earth honest facts.

Keep watching...
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.

Ps.. If I wrote long details of models and discussion it would be wrong.
Until Barry really wraps and picks up speed and moves.
Every model is open for discussion.
The NHC does it's best.
But they may be serving pasta for dinner the next few days.

I'm serving BBQ Sloppy Joes to my husband.
And Salad of course...
And dessert but I'm not telling what dessert is ;)

Again expect surprises with Barry.
You thought you were going to get Jimmy right?


Wrong..... same song tho...



For Invest 93L
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:40 PM 1 comments

UPDATED! 5 PM BARRY FORMS & 93L Forms Yellow Invest Off Africa ...Barry Reminding Me of His Great Ancestor Uncle Earl 1998 - Back to School. Shear Exists, Dry Air Places. Hot Water. Barry Needs a Good Stacked Center.

5 PM Update.
Hurricane warnings up in case it becomes a hurricane.


Note barometric pressure went down.
Usually wind speed follows and goes up.
Stay tuned.

Compare and contrast.
Not much changed.
TS Barry moved .3 degrees West.
That's slow movement.
Maybe slower than 5 MPH 
NHC advisory is "forecast" movement.

Below you see cones next to each other.
Very similar.

Short term movement same.
Mid term a smidgen to the right.
Seems to cut right a drop faster on the 5 PM


11 AM on left. New Cone 5 PM on right.

You can now see Barry from outer space.
I'd venture to say he might be a drop stronger than advisory package.


You can make it out.
A few hours ago you could not make it out without enlarging.
Shown below a much nicer signature than it has had so far.


I'll update with model discussion in a bit.

They have posted a Storm Surge Warning for Lake Ponchatrain.
If you have never been on that lake it's awesome.
From the bridge in the middle you cannot see the sides.
It's as if you are out in the ocean.
It's huge. Communities along it's North rim may have issues.
A Hurricane Warning was issued.
It says in discussion in case it becomes a Hurricane.
They have low confidence but err on the side of caution.
Good idea.


Some excellent discussion on www.flhurricane.com for old school types.

Be back in a bit.

***

1 PM from NHC



Barry consolidating his strength.
Moving slow.
A day for working on himself.....
...while those in his path prepare accordingly.

In the Atlantic 93L is small but spinning some.
Yelp reviews from NHC aren't good.
But maybe it might surprise us.

Just the fact that it's on the board on July 11 is surprising.
Again treat July as if it's August this year.


Satellite imagery shows Barry in the GOM
Waves making their way across the Atlantic
93L out there, small but noticeable.



I'll do a full update after the 5 PM package from the NHC
And I will go over model discussion then.

Stay tuned....
Discussion below that's timely if you haven't already read it.
Thanks... took the day off a bit to take care of somethings.
And not watch the pot in the GOM too closely so it will boil.

Let's see what Barry can do to pull it together today.



Busy day at the NHC.
Invest 93L has now been introduced.
MDR Tropical Wave.
Tropical Storm Barry
Finally forms :)



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=93L&product=vis


Note compare and contrast this with discussion below on Earl 98

Note changes to watches and warnings.
Watch the trend to the East.



My Bottom Line on Barry is this...
Prepare if you are told to...
Watch carefully to go into action...
...if you end up later in the area warned.

Watch Barry pull himself together today.
Today is the day....
Shear is still there but hey...
..if not now when?
As I said below I think he will ramp up when he smells land.
Smells land AGAIN.
He came off of land...remember that.

And as for the Atlantic.
Do NOT go by the Calendar.
This July is more like August.
And waves will start to become storms.
Early storms may not go the distance....
....but later storms will make landfall somewhere.

Not all waves but this is a year to worry more.
Huge high.
Strong waves.

So now onto 93L
Could it become Chantal?
Maybe... briefly? 
Time will tell.
It had my attention last night.
Today is has the NHC attention.

In other news, NHC has declared a new invest in the #Atlantic MDR. GOES16 VIS does show a broad area of low-level circulation associated with this tropical wave. The thing to watch will be how strong will the SAL hold over the E'rn Caribbean. #Tropics #93L #Invest93L pic.twitter.com/OOpAvbepIK



Told you not to forget about those strong tropical waves.

More breaking news....
Barry has competition ....




As I said yesterday...
While watching Barry come together 
Do not ignore those African Waves.
Showed this last night.
The wave looked better than Barry.


10% currently. May go up to 20% at least.
Keep watching.
Just to be there July 11th is a statement.



Wave by African last night.


Barry last night.


Okay... more on the wave later.
Barry today... maybe.

Barry and the Yellow Circle near Africa.



gom_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Still not a hurricane.
There may be some back pedaling from the NHC today.
They have already lowered their expectations.
Tropical Storm Barry end game for now.
Note moisture is everywhere.
Water is warm.
Shear is there too.
The center is trying to form.
Winds up to 35 MPH at 8 AM.



Messy.... such a messy presentation.
B for potential and D for presentation.


Models



Okay let's go back to school today.




Now let's look at Earl from 1998
Earl was an ugly sort of storm.
I don't mean MEAN BADASS UGLY
I mean so ugly... poorly formed.
As in "you got to be kidding me"
As it took a long time to form.
It hooked a right.
We are not expecting that for Barry.
But it's been a similar progress...


As a Cat 2 shown below...
You can see why people asked
"you got to be kidding me"


Yeah the eye was always hard to see...

This is a sample of discussion.
EARL 1998


Link to EARL 1998 Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/dis/NAL0598.006

Again a quote

"Earl does not have much of a signature at that level . ..
suggesting a rather shallow system that 
may not respond to deeper layer steering"

Note as people are walking by their shirts are not rippling.
"lashing the Florida Panhandle"
Yeah... rain, flooding.
Much of the weather was to the East.

Earl, bless his little center, always looked Extratropical...
...before it went that way.


"don't get me wrong it's swirling"
"not near as bad as it could have been" 

Rainmaker. Up to 17 inches... 

"winds are picking up now...
...probably gusting on the order of 40 or 50 mph...
...surf is holding it's own"

From day one to me Barry reminded me of Earl.
Not in track.... close... but in structure and formation.

Listen it is what it is...
..and it ain't pretty.
But Barry will soon be upgraded to something.
As per NHC discussion and forecast.

The water is warm.
There IS shear... I saw the shear.
I'm not sure why it was discounted.
I go by the water vapor more than models.
I look to see if models verify with the WV.
Always see if models connect to the set up.
Models are suggestions....
...changing slightly on each run.
They are helpful, useful but they don't direct the storm.
They suggest where the storm will go.
They try hard God Bless their algorithms.

So back to Barry.....


For picayune people please read the NHC disclaimer


Always read the small print.

Same track.
As I said previously slow movement in the short term.
Then it feels the weakness and the opening...
The front between the high pressure influences.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Levi Cowan explains this well around 5 minutes in...


Speaking of competing steering flow let's go back a bit...
...to an image I put up showing PTC2 trapped.


 Why hasn't Barry become Barry earlier you ask rather than later? First off there was shear that was extremely noticeable on the water vapor loop. Yes the water beneath the system is very warm, however it helps to have a good structure and for all centers found to be stacked vertically. The much feared Major Hurricane Debby fell apart because it's centers never aligned, it was tilted and basically fell over before it got to destroy Miami as predicted by many models. Yes models were crummier then but back then everyone thought the models were the bomb and Debby would bomb (we said bomb a lot then) and well she blew apart as if she had been bombed.  Let's see what happens once Barry pulls it together and what track it takes and if it finds an opening in the highs to the North, how strong the front is and where we are Friday  morning. I will update later today but not holding my breath. Going shopping.


Forecast above.
They began evacuating the Florida Keys.
Dangerous Debby.....

Then......
... Debby was no mas (no more)


So it's that simple.
Without a center stacked right.
The air cannot evacuate properly.
It is more susceptible to shear...

Think of a building under construction.
If a fire starts in a building under construction.
The fire rages and destroys the structure.

This happened a while back in Raleigh.
The building was not near finished ...
.... fire raged, building destroyed.
Shell left.
Bad, very bad.


A Cat 3 is impacted by shear.
Shear stops a mediocre system from forming.
Or it delays it.

That's it.

Winds are up to 35 MPH.
NHC will upgrade it.
It may or may not make hurricane.
We have to see what is under the hood.
Tropical systems do surprise at landfall.
Sometimes the surprise is "OH MY GOD"
Other times the surprise is .. "o my God... meh"

Barry was a Land Cane before it was a tropical system.
It did it's best as it came off shore.
Possibly Barry will do it's best when it sniffs land again.

I'll update later this afternoon.
Have a great day.
I'm going shopping... 
No not for hurricane supplies.
For presents for Miami kids.
For make up (duh)
Maybe cute sandals or heels.
Got places to go next week....
...people to see.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


(lol sorry that's how I felt watching PTC2 yesterday)

I was teasing ....

Yes Barry has HOT WATER...
What was does it really got..

Bonus round for those who got down to the end :)
Not sure why the NRL has this graphic up.
NRL tends to run a step ahead of NHC
Mercury Retrograde maybe?



Time will tell.
A song for a friend... kind of







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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:11 AM 1 comments