UPDATED! 5 PM BARRY FORMS & 93L Forms Yellow Invest Off Africa ...Barry Reminding Me of His Great Ancestor Uncle Earl 1998 - Back to School. Shear Exists, Dry Air Places. Hot Water. Barry Needs a Good Stacked Center.

5 PM Update.
Hurricane warnings up in case it becomes a hurricane.

Note barometric pressure went down.

Usually wind speed follows and goes up.

Stay tuned.

Compare and contrast.

Not much changed.

TS Barry moved .3 degrees West.

That's slow movement.

Maybe slower than 5 MPH 

NHC advisory is "forecast" movement.

Below you see cones next to each other.

Very similar.

Short term movement same.

Mid term a smidgen to the right.

Seems to cut right a drop faster on the 5 PM

11 AM on left. New Cone 5 PM on right.

You can now see Barry from outer space.
I'd venture to say he might be a drop stronger than advisory package.

You can make it out.

A few hours ago you could not make it out without enlarging.

Shown below a much nicer signature than it has had so far.

I'll update with model discussion in a bit.

They have posted a Storm Surge Warning for Lake Ponchatrain.
If you have never been on that lake it's awesome.
From the bridge in the middle you cannot see the sides.
It's as if you are out in the ocean.
It's huge. Communities along it's North rim may have issues.
A Hurricane Warning was issued.
It says in discussion in case it becomes a Hurricane.
They have low confidence but err on the side of caution.
Good idea.

Some excellent discussion on www.flhurricane.com for old school types.

Be back in a bit.

***

1 PM from NHC



Barry consolidating his strength.
Moving slow.
A day for working on himself.....
...while those in his path prepare accordingly.

In the Atlantic 93L is small but spinning some.
Yelp reviews from NHC aren't good.
But maybe it might surprise us.

Just the fact that it's on the board on July 11 is surprising.
Again treat July as if it's August this year.

Satellite imagery shows Barry in the GOM

Waves making their way across the Atlantic

93L out there, small but noticeable.

I'll do a full update after the 5 PM package from the NHC

And I will go over model discussion then.

Stay tuned....

Discussion below that's timely if you haven't already read it.

Thanks... took the day off a bit to take care of somethings.

And not watch the pot in the GOM too closely so it will boil.

Let's see what Barry can do to pull it together today.

Busy day at the NHC.
Invest 93L has now been introduced.
MDR Tropical Wave.
Tropical Storm Barry
Finally forms :)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=93L&product=vis

Note compare and contrast this with discussion below on Earl 98

Note changes to watches and warnings.

Watch the trend to the East.

My Bottom Line on Barry is this...

Prepare if you are told to...

Watch carefully to go into action...

...if you end up later in the area warned.

Watch Barry pull himself together today.

Today is the day....

Shear is still there but hey...

..if not now when?

As I said below I think he will ramp up when he smells land.

Smells land AGAIN.

He came off of land...remember that.

And as for the Atlantic.

Do NOT go by the Calendar.

This July is more like August.

And waves will start to become storms.

Early storms may not go the distance....

....but later storms will make landfall somewhere.

Not all waves but this is a year to worry more.

Huge high.

Strong waves.

So now onto 93L

Could it become Chantal?

Maybe... briefly? 

Time will tell.

It had my attention last night.

Today is has the NHC attention.

In other news, NHC has declared a new invest in the #Atlantic MDR. GOES16 VIS does show a broad area of low-level circulation associated with this tropical wave. The thing to watch will be how strong will the SAL hold over the E'rn Caribbean. #Tropics #93L #Invest93L pic.twitter.com/OOpAvbepIK

— 🌴Eric Drewitz 🌀 (@DrewitzWx) July 11, 2019

Told you not to forget about those strong tropical waves.

More breaking news....
Barry has competition ....

#Barry to be vs Yellow Circle off #Africa #tropical #wave https://t.co/kQqcG1z5nx will be updating soon on African wave I've been watching ... w #PTC2 pic.twitter.com/ZvF0dP12qU

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) July 11, 2019

There is a new area of disturbed weather the NHC is watching this morning over the Main Development Region of the Atlantic Ocean. Now while this likely won't affect land as a tropical cyclone, this uptick in activity is likely a sign of what's to come this season. pic.twitter.com/FadLai6SN2

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) July 11, 2019

As I said yesterday...

While watching Barry come together 

Do not ignore those African Waves.

Showed this last night.

The wave looked better than Barry.

10% currently. May go up to 20% at least.

Keep watching.

Just to be there July 11th is a statement.

Wave by African last night.

Barry last night.

Okay... more on the wave later.

Barry today... maybe.

Barry and the Yellow Circle near Africa.

Still not a hurricane.

There may be some back pedaling from the NHC today.

They have already lowered their expectations.

Tropical Storm Barry end game for now.

Note moisture is everywhere.

Water is warm.

Shear is there too.

The center is trying to form.

Winds up to 35 MPH at 8 AM.

Messy.... such a messy presentation.

B for potential and D for presentation.

Models

Okay let's go back to school today.

Now let's look at Earl from 1998

Earl was an ugly sort of storm.

I don't mean MEAN BADASS UGLY

I mean so ugly... poorly formed.

As in "you got to be kidding me"

As it took a long time to form.

It hooked a right.

We are not expecting that for Barry.
But it's been a similar progress...

As a Cat 2 shown below...

You can see why people asked

"you got to be kidding me"

Yeah the eye was always hard to see...

This is a sample of discussion.

EARL 1998

Link to EARL 1998 Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/dis/NAL0598.006

Again a quote

"Earl does not have much of a signature at that level . ..

suggesting a rather shallow system that 

may not respond to deeper layer steering"

Note as people are walking by their shirts are not rippling.

"lashing the Florida Panhandle"

Yeah... rain, flooding.

Much of the weather was to the East.

Earl, bless his little center, always looked Extratropical...

...before it went that way.

"don't get me wrong it's swirling"

"not near as bad as it could have been" 

Rainmaker. Up to 17 inches... 

"winds are picking up now...

...probably gusting on the order of 40 or 50 mph...

...surf is holding it's own"

From day one to me Barry reminded me of Earl.

Not in track.... close... but in structure and formation.

Listen it is what it is...

..and it ain't pretty.

But Barry will soon be upgraded to something.

As per NHC discussion and forecast.

The water is warm.

There IS shear... I saw the shear.

I'm not sure why it was discounted.

I go by the water vapor more than models.

I look to see if models verify with the WV.

Always see if models connect to the set up.

Models are suggestions....

...changing slightly on each run.

They are helpful, useful but they don't direct the storm.

They suggest where the storm will go.

They try hard God Bless their algorithms.

So back to Barry.....

For picayune people please read the NHC disclaimer

Always read the small print.

Same track.

As I said previously slow movement in the short term.

Then it feels the weakness and the opening...

The front between the high pressure influences.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Levi Cowan explains this well around 5 minutes in...

Speaking of competing steering flow let's go back a bit...

...to an image I put up showing PTC2 trapped.

 Why hasn't Barry become Barry earlier you ask rather than later? First off there was shear that was extremely noticeable on the water vapor loop. Yes the water beneath the system is very warm, however it helps to have a good structure and for all centers found to be stacked vertically. The much feared Major Hurricane Debby fell apart because it's centers never aligned, it was tilted and basically fell over before it got to destroy Miami as predicted by many models. Yes models were crummier then but back then everyone thought the models were the bomb and Debby would bomb (we said bomb a lot then) and well she blew apart as if she had been bombed.  Let's see what happens once Barry pulls it together and what track it takes and if it finds an opening in the highs to the North, how strong the front is and where we are Friday  morning. I will update later today but not holding my breath. Going shopping.

Forecast above.

They began evacuating the Florida Keys.

Dangerous Debby.....

Then......

... Debby was no mas (no more)

So it's that simple.

Without a center stacked right.

The air cannot evacuate properly.

It is more susceptible to shear...

Think of a building under construction.

If a fire starts in a building under construction.

The fire rages and destroys the structure.

This happened a while back in Raleigh.

The building was not near finished ...

.... fire raged, building destroyed.

Shell left.

Bad, very bad.

https://abc11.com/monstrous-fire-destroys-building-in-downtown-raleigh/1804792/

A Cat 3 is impacted by shear.

Shear stops a mediocre system from forming.

Or it delays it.

That's it.

Winds are up to 35 MPH.

NHC will upgrade it.

It may or may not make hurricane.

We have to see what is under the hood.

Tropical systems do surprise at landfall.

Sometimes the surprise is "OH MY GOD"

Other times the surprise is .. "o my God... meh"

Barry was a Land Cane before it was a tropical system.

It did it's best as it came off shore.

Possibly Barry will do it's best when it sniffs land again.

I'll update later this afternoon.

Have a great day.

I'm going shopping... 

No not for hurricane supplies.

For presents for Miami kids.

For make up (duh)

Maybe cute sandals or heels.

Got places to go next week....

...people to see.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

(lol sorry that's how I felt watching PTC2 yesterday)

I was teasing ....

Yes Barry has HOT WATER...

What was does it really got..

Bonus round for those who got down to the end :)
Not sure why the NRL has this graphic up.
NRL tends to run a step ahead of NHC
Mercury Retrograde maybe?

Time will tell.

A song for a friend... kind of