Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 11, 2019

UPDATED! 5 PM BARRY FORMS & 93L Forms Yellow Invest Off Africa ...Barry Reminding Me of His Great Ancestor Uncle Earl 1998 - Back to School. Shear Exists, Dry Air Places. Hot Water. Barry Needs a Good Stacked Center.

5 PM Update.
Hurricane warnings up in case it becomes a hurricane.


Note barometric pressure went down.
Usually wind speed follows and goes up.
Stay tuned.

Compare and contrast.
Not much changed.
TS Barry moved .3 degrees West.
That's slow movement.
Maybe slower than 5 MPH 
NHC advisory is "forecast" movement.

Below you see cones next to each other.
Very similar.

Short term movement same.
Mid term a smidgen to the right.
Seems to cut right a drop faster on the 5 PM


11 AM on left. New Cone 5 PM on right.

You can now see Barry from outer space.
I'd venture to say he might be a drop stronger than advisory package.


You can make it out.
A few hours ago you could not make it out without enlarging.
Shown below a much nicer signature than it has had so far.


I'll update with model discussion in a bit.

They have posted a Storm Surge Warning for Lake Ponchatrain.
If you have never been on that lake it's awesome.
From the bridge in the middle you cannot see the sides.
It's as if you are out in the ocean.
It's huge. Communities along it's North rim may have issues.
A Hurricane Warning was issued.
It says in discussion in case it becomes a Hurricane.
They have low confidence but err on the side of caution.
Good idea.


Some excellent discussion on www.flhurricane.com for old school types.

Be back in a bit.

***

1 PM from NHC



Barry consolidating his strength.
Moving slow.
A day for working on himself.....
...while those in his path prepare accordingly.

In the Atlantic 93L is small but spinning some.
Yelp reviews from NHC aren't good.
But maybe it might surprise us.

Just the fact that it's on the board on July 11 is surprising.
Again treat July as if it's August this year.


Satellite imagery shows Barry in the GOM
Waves making their way across the Atlantic
93L out there, small but noticeable.



I'll do a full update after the 5 PM package from the NHC
And I will go over model discussion then.

Stay tuned....
Discussion below that's timely if you haven't already read it.
Thanks... took the day off a bit to take care of somethings.
And not watch the pot in the GOM too closely so it will boil.

Let's see what Barry can do to pull it together today.



Busy day at the NHC.
Invest 93L has now been introduced.
MDR Tropical Wave.
Tropical Storm Barry
Finally forms :)



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=93L&product=vis


Note compare and contrast this with discussion below on Earl 98

Note changes to watches and warnings.
Watch the trend to the East.



My Bottom Line on Barry is this...
Prepare if you are told to...
Watch carefully to go into action...
...if you end up later in the area warned.

Watch Barry pull himself together today.
Today is the day....
Shear is still there but hey...
..if not now when?
As I said below I think he will ramp up when he smells land.
Smells land AGAIN.
He came off of land...remember that.

And as for the Atlantic.
Do NOT go by the Calendar.
This July is more like August.
And waves will start to become storms.
Early storms may not go the distance....
....but later storms will make landfall somewhere.

Not all waves but this is a year to worry more.
Huge high.
Strong waves.

So now onto 93L
Could it become Chantal?
Maybe... briefly? 
Time will tell.
It had my attention last night.
Today is has the NHC attention.

In other news, NHC has declared a new invest in the #Atlantic MDR. GOES16 VIS does show a broad area of low-level circulation associated with this tropical wave. The thing to watch will be how strong will the SAL hold over the E'rn Caribbean. #Tropics #93L #Invest93L pic.twitter.com/OOpAvbepIK



Told you not to forget about those strong tropical waves.

More breaking news....
Barry has competition ....




As I said yesterday...
While watching Barry come together 
Do not ignore those African Waves.
Showed this last night.
The wave looked better than Barry.


10% currently. May go up to 20% at least.
Keep watching.
Just to be there July 11th is a statement.



Wave by African last night.


Barry last night.


Okay... more on the wave later.
Barry today... maybe.

Barry and the Yellow Circle near Africa.



gom_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Still not a hurricane.
There may be some back pedaling from the NHC today.
They have already lowered their expectations.
Tropical Storm Barry end game for now.
Note moisture is everywhere.
Water is warm.
Shear is there too.
The center is trying to form.
Winds up to 35 MPH at 8 AM.



Messy.... such a messy presentation.
B for potential and D for presentation.


Models



Okay let's go back to school today.




Now let's look at Earl from 1998
Earl was an ugly sort of storm.
I don't mean MEAN BADASS UGLY
I mean so ugly... poorly formed.
As in "you got to be kidding me"
As it took a long time to form.
It hooked a right.
We are not expecting that for Barry.
But it's been a similar progress...


As a Cat 2 shown below...
You can see why people asked
"you got to be kidding me"


Yeah the eye was always hard to see...

This is a sample of discussion.
EARL 1998


Link to EARL 1998 Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/dis/NAL0598.006

Again a quote

"Earl does not have much of a signature at that level . ..
suggesting a rather shallow system that 
may not respond to deeper layer steering"

Note as people are walking by their shirts are not rippling.
"lashing the Florida Panhandle"
Yeah... rain, flooding.
Much of the weather was to the East.

Earl, bless his little center, always looked Extratropical...
...before it went that way.


"don't get me wrong it's swirling"
"not near as bad as it could have been" 

Rainmaker. Up to 17 inches... 

"winds are picking up now...
...probably gusting on the order of 40 or 50 mph...
...surf is holding it's own"

From day one to me Barry reminded me of Earl.
Not in track.... close... but in structure and formation.

Listen it is what it is...
..and it ain't pretty.
But Barry will soon be upgraded to something.
As per NHC discussion and forecast.

The water is warm.
There IS shear... I saw the shear.
I'm not sure why it was discounted.
I go by the water vapor more than models.
I look to see if models verify with the WV.
Always see if models connect to the set up.
Models are suggestions....
...changing slightly on each run.
They are helpful, useful but they don't direct the storm.
They suggest where the storm will go.
They try hard God Bless their algorithms.

So back to Barry.....


For picayune people please read the NHC disclaimer


Always read the small print.

Same track.
As I said previously slow movement in the short term.
Then it feels the weakness and the opening...
The front between the high pressure influences.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Levi Cowan explains this well around 5 minutes in...


Speaking of competing steering flow let's go back a bit...
...to an image I put up showing PTC2 trapped.


 Why hasn't Barry become Barry earlier you ask rather than later? First off there was shear that was extremely noticeable on the water vapor loop. Yes the water beneath the system is very warm, however it helps to have a good structure and for all centers found to be stacked vertically. The much feared Major Hurricane Debby fell apart because it's centers never aligned, it was tilted and basically fell over before it got to destroy Miami as predicted by many models. Yes models were crummier then but back then everyone thought the models were the bomb and Debby would bomb (we said bomb a lot then) and well she blew apart as if she had been bombed.  Let's see what happens once Barry pulls it together and what track it takes and if it finds an opening in the highs to the North, how strong the front is and where we are Friday  morning. I will update later today but not holding my breath. Going shopping.


Forecast above.
They began evacuating the Florida Keys.
Dangerous Debby.....

Then......
... Debby was no mas (no more)


So it's that simple.
Without a center stacked right.
The air cannot evacuate properly.
It is more susceptible to shear...

Think of a building under construction.
If a fire starts in a building under construction.
The fire rages and destroys the structure.

This happened a while back in Raleigh.
The building was not near finished ...
.... fire raged, building destroyed.
Shell left.
Bad, very bad.


A Cat 3 is impacted by shear.
Shear stops a mediocre system from forming.
Or it delays it.

That's it.

Winds are up to 35 MPH.
NHC will upgrade it.
It may or may not make hurricane.
We have to see what is under the hood.
Tropical systems do surprise at landfall.
Sometimes the surprise is "OH MY GOD"
Other times the surprise is .. "o my God... meh"

Barry was a Land Cane before it was a tropical system.
It did it's best as it came off shore.
Possibly Barry will do it's best when it sniffs land again.

I'll update later this afternoon.
Have a great day.
I'm going shopping... 
No not for hurricane supplies.
For presents for Miami kids.
For make up (duh)
Maybe cute sandals or heels.
Got places to go next week....
...people to see.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


(lol sorry that's how I felt watching PTC2 yesterday)

I was teasing ....

Yes Barry has HOT WATER...
What was does it really got..

Bonus round for those who got down to the end :)
Not sure why the NRL has this graphic up.
NRL tends to run a step ahead of NHC
Mercury Retrograde maybe?



Time will tell.
A song for a friend... kind of







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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:11 AM 1 comments

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

11 PM UPDATE - Tropical Storm Barry Forming From PTC2 in the GOM CLOSE TO LAND. Forecast to be Cat 1 Hurricane by NHC. Louisiana in the Cross Hairs for RAIN FLOODING. Recon going in later today. NHC Cone. Tropics NOW.

11 PM Update on PTC2
Maybe tomorrow.....
Still only 30 MPH

Broad center with multiple centers.
The center has not stacked yet.
Kind of a center but no cigar..


Note it's a very slow mover for a while.
At some point it picks up speed.
Develops close in over very warm waters.
Caveat here is IF a real center stacks up.
Models insist that will happen.

Note salient discussion points tonight from NHC


"multiple low level swirls associated with individual convective
cells were noted in the aircraft wind data"

Great product NHC puts out.
Flooding potential... 



Will start over in the morning.
Maybe tomorrow..
Tomorrow is always a day away.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm


Recon may have found a center........
........waiting to see what NHC says.
NHC said they found a broad center...........
and another smaller center and another.
Not there yet was the verdict.




thru 

Look carefully.
Barry's getting a center.
A belly button even.
Seriously... 
Takes a while to come together.
Give him some time to breathe.

Updating live today.
New info at the top...
..if you didn't read this morning's post please read all.

5 PM Update.




Nice graphic there. 
Simple. Clear.


You can read the Discussion yourself.
I highlighted parts I felt were salient.



I have said before I see it being impacted by shear.
Not strong shear but shear is there.
For a developing system that's hard.
It's center has to stack vertically to develop.
So any shear is an issue.
Water temperature is HOT.
Water Vapor Loop shows some shear.
NHC acknowledges it.
Below I want to call your attention to Number 4.
Slow movement .. Flash Flooding... River Flooding.


As for water temperature...
It's that hot.


Water upwards of 85 degrees.
85 to 90 degrees.
85 degrees close in....

As for what cities have possibilities...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/102036.shtml

Pretty much every city for miles around has some probability.
Even far outside the cone.
You need to read the small print to know what the Wind Probs mean.
I was trained to use it for various purposes.
I was trained by specialists in the field.
Good advice.


To understand how the NHC explains the Cone.
Here's the link below.


There's lots of rules and explanations on their site.

This is difficult as many on air specialists explain it differently.
Max Mayfield who is long gone talked on it often.


It's a bit old but it's from Max Mayfield.
Every director is different.
There have been a lot of different directors of late.

I know how Rick Knabb explains it on air.
Here's his Twitter link https://twitter.com/drrickknabb?lang=en

Know what Rick said recently is my main concern.
What do we know? 
We know it will be slow movement for the short term.



Good advice to remember.



Then See Monday. Barely moving.
Weak steering currents currently forecast.






The official NOAA forecast has it over LA thru Monday.
That could change.
But the flooding inland would be a problem.

My bottom line:

Let me explain how this goes. It's currently raining off and on in Louisiana and other places nearby. There was flooding this morning as well as a tornado. It floods easily there but more easily with heavy tropical rain. The river is already swollen... you know the Mississippi River and it's low lying filled with lots of bayous that flood. That water rises and the structures holding it will have problems with it and yes I'm talking about a slow moving minimal hurricane. Then it makes landfall and moves SLOWLY UP River... that is flooding.......then it moves further up into Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas not to let E Oklahoma off the hook. That adds more water to the River and where do you think that water goes? Well it tries to go downstream. This has the potential for a real, flooding mess that will impact many people's lives over a wide area and it's the beginning of the hurricane season so who knows what else will come there way later in the season.

Oh and the Atlantic is about to come alive.
As in 1-2-3 or rather 3-4-5
ABC .. that fast.

Until the steering currents open up the gates.
And let Barry leave....
... Barry is stuck as seen here.


And it's slowly coming together.
Some models show a stronger hurricane.
We can talk on that tomorrow.


You have a big bull in a China Shop.
A tea kettle full and spilling over everywhere.
Flooding. 
This is the concern here........

As for me I'm going out tonight.
I'm going to wear my Drunk Donkey Tee Shirt
And wear a real short skirt ;)
(giggling)
And eat good Southern Food and drink Craft Beer.
And I'll be back to see what we see... 

Thank you TREMENDOUSLY for your feedback ...
...and great discussion on Twitter and elsewhere.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
BobbiStorm on Twitter & Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discusison.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Note it's raining all over the place...
N FL to LA/TX border.
Not a good set up before landfall.
Before we even knew it's name was Tropical Storm Barry..

Besos .........


I'm sure I'm part of that huge number of hits ;)







* * * 

2 PM 


Note NHC has this as HURRICANE BARRY at landfall.
What category depends on many things.

Note it's a developing cyclone.
Movement WSW currently.
That could also be part of center reforming.
We don't have a clear cut center.
High behind it is strong.
High to it's NW is strong and moving East.

You can use the loop and see this happening as well.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.
php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=09&length=24

'
See how the yellow area moves down 
The developing cyclone responds with WSW movement


Also note this is growing in moisture.
It is over octane fuel water temperature wise.
It has moisture below it and it is sucking that in..
A potentially dangerous set up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Mimic loop I used to call OJ Loop ..


Note there there is deep supply of moisture below to the S.
Hurricanes know how to suck that moisture up.
That's why they develop a long tail.
Those were waves that didn't develop.
But stayed together.
Note there are waves in the Atlantic.
By the end of the month we will be tracking Atlantic storms.


That's a strong, healthy ITCZ
Waves make it across.
EURO develops a wave down the road.
Stay tuned.

Back to Barry...


Earlier at the beginning of the loop there was moisture S of Cuba.
PTC2 sucked it up into the GOM.

Watch in real time the two areas interact.

gom_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

This loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike is awesome and always adding links.
Also has specialized Barry Links.
It will be Barry soon.

Earthnull shows the center.
The center is trying to come together.
You can see it's not perfect yet.


Give it time.

Models show a hurricane just off shore.
Models change on each run.



Know some models do intensify it more.
I'm waiting for info from recon and next model runs.
Also waiting for Barry to become Barry.
Another link from NHC that's good to use is shown below.
If you use the link below it is interactive.
It can show you down to your city where you are in the cone.


People to follow on Twitter

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV

He knows weather, hurricanes and Nola.



I'm putting this up because........
...people in Miami keep asking me.
"how do we know it won't turn back to the East"
That's why. 

As for experts we have Bryan Norcross



If you can't trust him who can you trust?




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/173249.shtml?gm_track#contents

First off Recon is IN the system.


***
Keep reading if you didn't read this mornings blog.
Updating in real time today at the top.
Be back later Bobbi


Note NHC Forecasts this to become Hurricane Barry...
in NHC Discussion 


Discussion 


That is not locked in.
Often intensity forecasting is the hardest part.
So always prepare for 1 category higher.
Just in case.
Better safe and prepared than sorry.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 to be TS Barry eventually.
Eventually Hurricane Barry.
Much awaited Cone below.


Rainfall projection.
For now rain is the name of the game.
We can worry on stronger winds later.
More people die from water than wind.
Run from the water.
Hide from the wind.
Hard to get to where you need to hide...
...if your route to get out is blocked by water.
Because op the shape of Louisiana...
Parts of Mississippi and Texas are in this...
Long range Oklahoma and Arkansas gets rain.


Tropical Storm Watch issued.
Mouth of Mississippi River to Morgan City, La

Storm watches from Pearl River to Morgan City.




https://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/states/louisiana/louisiana-river-map.html


Note the river flooding problem goes N up into Arkansas possibly.

The reason I was upset yesterday about the slowness of the NHC to put out their PTC2 product is because in this case it's not about LANDFALL today but about rain ahead of Barry while PTC2 tried to come together. You add in WARM WATER and localized rain and HOT weather and you have rain falling in flash flood proportions TODAY.. and I knew that would happen YESTERDAY. There is way too much obsession on what city will get to be landfall as if it's some contest. This is not a Cat 5 Hurricane with a small core of dangerous winds that people need to know where that tight Andrew like eye is going as much as WHERE IS THE WEATHER GOING and WHO WILL GET FLOODING and that area is a wide swath along the many populated cities that lie from the Mobile to Houston. Houston is not in the cone but does Barry wrap up or does it's weather go everywhere? It's a difficult forecast for the NHC as it's evolving and developing in real time. And time is of the essence to prepare both down by the Gulf of Mexico and up in the back woods prone to flooding along the Mississippi River, the Pearl River and the Sabine River. Lots of rivers and bayous there and they are all prone to flooding even far from the point of landfall.



I will update this blog in real time ...
Keep checking back soon.
It will be a Live Blog  today.



NHC did issue a PTC2 Discussion.
There were rumors in the wind that was happening at 11 AM.
But at 9 AM the NHC had this up.
Either way recon is going in soon .........



Waiting on RECON to go in obviously.
Better recon data gives us better model runs.
More info for the NHC to put into their advisories.
Nuff said on that for now..... 
(read previous blog for my thoughts)

You can see the highlighted part below.
Waiting on recon...
...stand by for advisories later.


So what's the info on models?
Where does it go?
Mike who knows what people want knows.


Obviously Louisiana has a bulls eye on it.
New Orleans actually has a TORNADO warning this morning.
Tornadoes could be a problem later from Barry


Why now?
Because this is a slow developing storm.
But the RAIN is the NAME of the GAME today.
And the rain that will fall for the next few days........
.....BEFORE BARRY MAKES LANDFALL
Could make epic flooding.


Listen to people who know.
Weather people, Storm Chasers KNOW.
They know the END result often.
The NHC puts up a CONE... eventually.



Mimic Loop shows spin slowly coming together.

See the larger S shape around general moisture mess

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

Let's go back to the models.
Keeping this simple this morning.

I had to stop writing to take a picture of the TV.
Yes, how Old School.
Welcome to my world.
No time to play with webcams or searches.
TWC showing the webcam.
Duh...so ignore the "took a pic of tv" look.
The message is the thing here.


And yes I have a map on my wall.
Told you I love maps.

Note this TWEET 15 HOURS AGO.



Understand New Orleans and areas around it....
........do not need Harvey like rain totals to flood.
Actually Houston floods fast too.
It's BAYOU country.
It's a swamp basically.
This is the problem.
Barry won't be Camille.
This is not a wind event but a rain/flooding event.



NOTE... the models again.
Posting this twice.

The HWRF last night set the tropical world on fire.
It showed RI upon landfall and a strong hurricane.
Everyone went crazy on that one model run.
As they do every time the GFS agrees with the EURO.
HWRF had it's 15 minutes of fame.
IF that happens everyone will ask about the HWRF.
The next run pulled back a bit this morning.
Oh well.
Note the ICON is being watched by many.

So let's let RECON fly into the plane.
Let's let the NHC do it's official thing.

The GOVERNOR of LOUISIANA DIDN'T WAIT.
Nola is not playing wait and watch game.
Their mets know the story.

Check the loop out below.
Note this is an official GOV product


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

We have a Low by Louisiana.
NOTE the WHOLE LOOP it's under RAIN.
Rain is the name of the GAME.

Lastly IF Barry goes up into the Mississippi River Valley.
There will be more rain as it's been at Flood Stage since February.
It really can't handle that much rain.

So while no it's not Harvey sort of rain.
It's still way too much and a pain.

It's not that hard to see where the NHC will put the cone.


Louisiana for now.
Texas near the Sabine River COULD be in it.
It could move closer to Mississippi or Texas....
 if something changes.
Things often change in real time.
So keep checking back.
Pay attention to your local weather sources.

You should be following these two ...


They do a great job EARLY .. 
BEFORE the CONE.
During the Cone.
Deep info.



And yeah obviously NWS New Orleans.

https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans?

Current picture of their page.


This says it all.
Flash Flood Warning Wednesday Morning.

It's that simple.

Will it be a Hurricane?
How strong a hurricane?
So many questions.

But the WATER is the problem here.
Not the wind.
I don't count anything out but....
It's that simple.
If it becomes a Cat 2 act accordingly.


ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30


Look how close to land, over land this weather is.
Before Barry forms.

More people die from FLOODING than wind.
This area is prone to flooding.
This will be a flooding/rain event.

So BobbiStorm's Bottom Line
If you live in this area prepare now.
Prepare according to your concerns.
Is flooding an often problem in your area?
Then get out of your area.
If not hunker down.
Get supplies because you'll need them.
Stores and roads could be closed for a while.
Monitor the progress of the system.
Follow local sources they know your concerns.

I think this will be a Louisiana landfall.
I could be wrong but currently seems so.
Even so a "center" could hit TX but the rain...
...the rain will impact Louisiana.
And people UP RIVER...
Should watch because the RIVER already has problems.

I'll update later so check back often.
Models that shows this paralleling the coast..
is dangerous in a Charley way.
Not because RI or wind speed.
But because hard to say which CITY gets it ...
It's not an easy set up.
But we know it's there.
We can prepare.

Close Up Loop

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Wide Loop

GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif (900×540)


Note the Wave Train off Africa.
After we are done with Barry.....
... We will have Chantal to contend with.
And that WAVE South of Cuba has been cooking.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time responses and discussion.

Ps.... read the previous blog.
I complained on things I am not gonna rant on now.
But I think it's way too close to land now.
It was obvious the NHC is going with the slow forming model.
It's way too close to land and surprises do pop up.
I'd rather have had an official PTCW up earlier not later.
Fly the planes in ...
... they are outta MS it's not a long flight.
Data is good for details.
We need the dropsonde data.

Those that know me know I love Nola.
I was the Keynote Speaker at a Conference there....
...on a riverboat in the Mississippi River :)

So enjoy the song.
Pray the EURO is wrong.
Hope the GFS knows something.
But even without developing deep.
The rain is the name of the game.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:00 AM 0 comments