Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 01, 2020

2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.


Remember when?
2017....  a year few of us will forget.
Could we see a replay of such a busy season?
Yes, it's very possible.
In 1886 before satellite imagery......
... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.
We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.
And know September had multiple storms too.
3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886


 Storm #5 
8/15 Hispaniola
8/20 Indianola

Storm #6
8/19 Jamaica
8/21 Cuba
8/22 Nassau

Storm #7
8/20 TS forms near Bermuda
Becomes a Cat 3... 
Impacts George Bank
Vessels lost, ship damage.
Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.
Landfalls overlap.
Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5
Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas


Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 
Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.



Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season



Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season
1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.


Note that all 3 of these seasons...
...look similar when glancing at the maps.
Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.
We went during a rain storm yesterday.
 A food Lion in Raleigh.
Extremely clean.
Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.
Employees had masks and gloves on...
...so did the customers.



Publix moved into North Carolina.
Many transplanted Floridians live here.
As much as I love Publix... not as clean.
At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.
My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..
... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.
They are limiting popular non-perishables.


Yeah that happened.
We are stocked... not going out for a while.
Well, for walks and exercise maybe.
But not shopping any time soon.
Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......
....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.
Every trip to the store by one extra thing.
Because I can't imagine how people will shop...
... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.
With proper social distancing....
...and many items already gone.
It won't be pretty.
Prepare early........
... you can use non-perishables anytime.
That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.
Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.
Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.
Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.
I buy it, use it sparingly.
Lasts, great bread but expensive.
The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......
...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.
While they were spared hurricanes....
...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.



A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 
Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 
Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!













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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:48 AM 0 comments

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Historic Flooding from IMELDA In Some Areas More than 30 inches... 43 Inches in Some Areas. 1 Death So Far. Jerry Going to Bermuda? Maybe. Copy Cat Following Humberto.


Still raining after all this time.
And the rain...the weather didn't move deep inland.
It's spreading into Louisiana.
The TX/LA border of the Sabine River.
Nice little towns. Bayous. Swamps.
I-10 is still closed.
Many roads are impassable.
Flooding worst than Allison...
... a real mini Harvey going on.




The scope of this disaster is heard to comprehend.
The airport is technically open....
...but the roads to get there are under water.





Governor of Louisiana thanking the Cajun Navy.



I went out to take care of some things.
Came home and put on TWC.
Still raining, flooding.
Rescues going on of all kind.



Kind of says it all as I was taught that how people treat their animals says a lot about them. 

 And we have had a death during this horrible storm when a young man was hit by lightning.

He was out in his boat trying to help stranded people.
So sad. Very sad.

People were begging for help.
Looking for ways to help.

Twitter account for the Cajun Navy.
If you know anyone who needs help...
...or you want to help.


I was going to write about models.
I looped a lot models.
Nothing new to tell really.
I have a headache and the models make it worse.
I had the sound down on the TV while writing.
And had to turn the sound up to figure this one out.


They are begging people to say off the roads.



And this is the point here.
I knew something like this would happen.
And the system was easily identifiable on loops.
And there should have been....
...could have been more warning to people.

Slow moving rains causing slow motion tragedy.
I'm not interested in the "center" the NHC tracked inland.
And I'm not interested in them telling people to look elsewhere.

Image of the cute map from the site they are sending ppl to...
...see previous blog. I love maps but that doesn't cut it.
Show images of flooding, do videos.
Draw maps like Cranky does.
This is tropical.
Earlier warning could have helped some people...
...prepare or move to higher ground.
Then reporting a TS formed and made landfall.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/qa/201207_rick_knabb.php



I'll stand by that tweet.
I've met him.
He's a sweet man, smart, kind.
Concerned and knowledgeable.
Doing a good job at the TWC.


So you want to know about Jerry?
Models in agreement.




Water Vapor below.




My husband used to ski often.
And I don't mean water ski.
He grew up in upstate NY.
He took his skis to school in the winter.
The way Miami kids skateboard.
He said skiers have this problem...
...sometimes with tracks from skiers that went before.
I'll defer to him as I've never skied in my life.
But it's logical.

Here's the MIMIC loop.


It's obvious until this pattern changes.
The storm tracks are set in stone.
For a while not the whole rest of the season.
Fluid Dynamics 

But at some point the Carib and GOM get hot.
Sorry but that's Climo.

One model I'll share ..
...shows a closed low in the Gulf of Mexico.
At some point the pattern changes.
African Wave Season ends.
And GOM and Carib begins.
And they get pulled North.


In the same way Humberto followed Dorian..


And Jerry follows Humberto.
Because lows go to lows.
and they try to stay way from high pressure.

I'll do models tomorrow.
Today everything is about Imelda.
May not have been officially a TS...
...except for an hour or half or so.
But it should have.. could have..
..been an Invest earlier.
More attention should have been given to it.
The tropics is more than just African Waves.
(yes i said that...)
And hope next time people are not blind sided.
So today is about Imelda.
And the families impacted and struggling.
Who will have to rebuild or move once again.
Just as they were putting Harvey in the rear view mirror.
So give charity or time to help if you can.
And trust me Florida is not safe for the season.
As they are most prone to be hit from the S or SW
Coming up over Cuba or from the Yucatan.
Think Wilma...
Later in October.

Listen I do this to help.
Hoping to help someone who feels confused.
I'm not doing this for students getting Masters Degrees ..
... or others who understand technical language.
But for those who need to know.
If I can help good.
I'm not charging money...
I'm not selling tee shirts..
(tho if I did I'd offer V Necks...)
And if I can help. Good.
Been doing this blog since 2004 or 6
(who remembers

So thanks and keep getting that word out.
Perhaps had this been an Invest earlier.
Perhaps people might have had time to prepare.
To evacuate. To move valuables up to a safe spot.

Much respect for the Cajun Navy.
For volunteers. For Red Cross.
For TWC nonstop covering the story.



Again the NHC is tracking the center up into N Texas.
The associate weather is ongoing near TX/LA border.
This is not just about Texas...
...but now the weather moving into Louisiana.
It's all about the weather...


Besos BobbiStorm
@BobbiStorm Twitter and Instagram
Updating in real time.
Watching more weather history unfold.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 2:44 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

11 PM UPDATE - Tropical Storm Barry Forming From PTC2 in the GOM CLOSE TO LAND. Forecast to be Cat 1 Hurricane by NHC. Louisiana in the Cross Hairs for RAIN FLOODING. Recon going in later today. NHC Cone. Tropics NOW.

11 PM Update on PTC2
Maybe tomorrow.....
Still only 30 MPH

Broad center with multiple centers.
The center has not stacked yet.
Kind of a center but no cigar..


Note it's a very slow mover for a while.
At some point it picks up speed.
Develops close in over very warm waters.
Caveat here is IF a real center stacks up.
Models insist that will happen.

Note salient discussion points tonight from NHC


"multiple low level swirls associated with individual convective
cells were noted in the aircraft wind data"

Great product NHC puts out.
Flooding potential... 



Will start over in the morning.
Maybe tomorrow..
Tomorrow is always a day away.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
BobbiStorm


Recon may have found a center........
........waiting to see what NHC says.
NHC said they found a broad center...........
and another smaller center and another.
Not there yet was the verdict.




thru 

Look carefully.
Barry's getting a center.
A belly button even.
Seriously... 
Takes a while to come together.
Give him some time to breathe.

Updating live today.
New info at the top...
..if you didn't read this morning's post please read all.

5 PM Update.




Nice graphic there. 
Simple. Clear.


You can read the Discussion yourself.
I highlighted parts I felt were salient.



I have said before I see it being impacted by shear.
Not strong shear but shear is there.
For a developing system that's hard.
It's center has to stack vertically to develop.
So any shear is an issue.
Water temperature is HOT.
Water Vapor Loop shows some shear.
NHC acknowledges it.
Below I want to call your attention to Number 4.
Slow movement .. Flash Flooding... River Flooding.


As for water temperature...
It's that hot.


Water upwards of 85 degrees.
85 to 90 degrees.
85 degrees close in....

As for what cities have possibilities...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/102036.shtml

Pretty much every city for miles around has some probability.
Even far outside the cone.
You need to read the small print to know what the Wind Probs mean.
I was trained to use it for various purposes.
I was trained by specialists in the field.
Good advice.


To understand how the NHC explains the Cone.
Here's the link below.


There's lots of rules and explanations on their site.

This is difficult as many on air specialists explain it differently.
Max Mayfield who is long gone talked on it often.


It's a bit old but it's from Max Mayfield.
Every director is different.
There have been a lot of different directors of late.

I know how Rick Knabb explains it on air.
Here's his Twitter link https://twitter.com/drrickknabb?lang=en

Know what Rick said recently is my main concern.
What do we know? 
We know it will be slow movement for the short term.



Good advice to remember.



Then See Monday. Barely moving.
Weak steering currents currently forecast.






The official NOAA forecast has it over LA thru Monday.
That could change.
But the flooding inland would be a problem.

My bottom line:

Let me explain how this goes. It's currently raining off and on in Louisiana and other places nearby. There was flooding this morning as well as a tornado. It floods easily there but more easily with heavy tropical rain. The river is already swollen... you know the Mississippi River and it's low lying filled with lots of bayous that flood. That water rises and the structures holding it will have problems with it and yes I'm talking about a slow moving minimal hurricane. Then it makes landfall and moves SLOWLY UP River... that is flooding.......then it moves further up into Texas, Mississippi and Arkansas not to let E Oklahoma off the hook. That adds more water to the River and where do you think that water goes? Well it tries to go downstream. This has the potential for a real, flooding mess that will impact many people's lives over a wide area and it's the beginning of the hurricane season so who knows what else will come there way later in the season.

Oh and the Atlantic is about to come alive.
As in 1-2-3 or rather 3-4-5
ABC .. that fast.

Until the steering currents open up the gates.
And let Barry leave....
... Barry is stuck as seen here.


And it's slowly coming together.
Some models show a stronger hurricane.
We can talk on that tomorrow.


You have a big bull in a China Shop.
A tea kettle full and spilling over everywhere.
Flooding. 
This is the concern here........

As for me I'm going out tonight.
I'm going to wear my Drunk Donkey Tee Shirt
And wear a real short skirt ;)
(giggling)
And eat good Southern Food and drink Craft Beer.
And I'll be back to see what we see... 

Thank you TREMENDOUSLY for your feedback ...
...and great discussion on Twitter and elsewhere.

Sweet Tropical Dreams...
BobbiStorm on Twitter & Instagram.
Follow me there for real time discusison.

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Note it's raining all over the place...
N FL to LA/TX border.
Not a good set up before landfall.
Before we even knew it's name was Tropical Storm Barry..

Besos .........


I'm sure I'm part of that huge number of hits ;)







* * * 

2 PM 


Note NHC has this as HURRICANE BARRY at landfall.
What category depends on many things.

Note it's a developing cyclone.
Movement WSW currently.
That could also be part of center reforming.
We don't have a clear cut center.
High behind it is strong.
High to it's NW is strong and moving East.

You can use the loop and see this happening as well.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.
php?sat=G16&sector=taw&band=09&length=24

'
See how the yellow area moves down 
The developing cyclone responds with WSW movement


Also note this is growing in moisture.
It is over octane fuel water temperature wise.
It has moisture below it and it is sucking that in..
A potentially dangerous set up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

Mimic loop I used to call OJ Loop ..


Note there there is deep supply of moisture below to the S.
Hurricanes know how to suck that moisture up.
That's why they develop a long tail.
Those were waves that didn't develop.
But stayed together.
Note there are waves in the Atlantic.
By the end of the month we will be tracking Atlantic storms.


That's a strong, healthy ITCZ
Waves make it across.
EURO develops a wave down the road.
Stay tuned.

Back to Barry...


Earlier at the beginning of the loop there was moisture S of Cuba.
PTC2 sucked it up into the GOM.

Watch in real time the two areas interact.

gom_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

This loop is on www.spaghettimodels.com

Mike is awesome and always adding links.
Also has specialized Barry Links.
It will be Barry soon.

Earthnull shows the center.
The center is trying to come together.
You can see it's not perfect yet.


Give it time.

Models show a hurricane just off shore.
Models change on each run.



Know some models do intensify it more.
I'm waiting for info from recon and next model runs.
Also waiting for Barry to become Barry.
Another link from NHC that's good to use is shown below.
If you use the link below it is interactive.
It can show you down to your city where you are in the cone.


People to follow on Twitter

https://twitter.com/DavidBernardTV

He knows weather, hurricanes and Nola.



I'm putting this up because........
...people in Miami keep asking me.
"how do we know it won't turn back to the East"
That's why. 

As for experts we have Bryan Norcross



If you can't trust him who can you trust?




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/173249.shtml?gm_track#contents

First off Recon is IN the system.


***
Keep reading if you didn't read this mornings blog.
Updating in real time today at the top.
Be back later Bobbi


Note NHC Forecasts this to become Hurricane Barry...
in NHC Discussion 


Discussion 


That is not locked in.
Often intensity forecasting is the hardest part.
So always prepare for 1 category higher.
Just in case.
Better safe and prepared than sorry.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 to be TS Barry eventually.
Eventually Hurricane Barry.
Much awaited Cone below.


Rainfall projection.
For now rain is the name of the game.
We can worry on stronger winds later.
More people die from water than wind.
Run from the water.
Hide from the wind.
Hard to get to where you need to hide...
...if your route to get out is blocked by water.
Because op the shape of Louisiana...
Parts of Mississippi and Texas are in this...
Long range Oklahoma and Arkansas gets rain.


Tropical Storm Watch issued.
Mouth of Mississippi River to Morgan City, La

Storm watches from Pearl River to Morgan City.




https://www.mapsofworld.com/usa/states/louisiana/louisiana-river-map.html


Note the river flooding problem goes N up into Arkansas possibly.

The reason I was upset yesterday about the slowness of the NHC to put out their PTC2 product is because in this case it's not about LANDFALL today but about rain ahead of Barry while PTC2 tried to come together. You add in WARM WATER and localized rain and HOT weather and you have rain falling in flash flood proportions TODAY.. and I knew that would happen YESTERDAY. There is way too much obsession on what city will get to be landfall as if it's some contest. This is not a Cat 5 Hurricane with a small core of dangerous winds that people need to know where that tight Andrew like eye is going as much as WHERE IS THE WEATHER GOING and WHO WILL GET FLOODING and that area is a wide swath along the many populated cities that lie from the Mobile to Houston. Houston is not in the cone but does Barry wrap up or does it's weather go everywhere? It's a difficult forecast for the NHC as it's evolving and developing in real time. And time is of the essence to prepare both down by the Gulf of Mexico and up in the back woods prone to flooding along the Mississippi River, the Pearl River and the Sabine River. Lots of rivers and bayous there and they are all prone to flooding even far from the point of landfall.



I will update this blog in real time ...
Keep checking back soon.
It will be a Live Blog  today.



NHC did issue a PTC2 Discussion.
There were rumors in the wind that was happening at 11 AM.
But at 9 AM the NHC had this up.
Either way recon is going in soon .........



Waiting on RECON to go in obviously.
Better recon data gives us better model runs.
More info for the NHC to put into their advisories.
Nuff said on that for now..... 
(read previous blog for my thoughts)

You can see the highlighted part below.
Waiting on recon...
...stand by for advisories later.


So what's the info on models?
Where does it go?
Mike who knows what people want knows.


Obviously Louisiana has a bulls eye on it.
New Orleans actually has a TORNADO warning this morning.
Tornadoes could be a problem later from Barry


Why now?
Because this is a slow developing storm.
But the RAIN is the NAME of the GAME today.
And the rain that will fall for the next few days........
.....BEFORE BARRY MAKES LANDFALL
Could make epic flooding.


Listen to people who know.
Weather people, Storm Chasers KNOW.
They know the END result often.
The NHC puts up a CONE... eventually.



Mimic Loop shows spin slowly coming together.

See the larger S shape around general moisture mess

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=natl&timespan=120hrs&anim=anigf

Let's go back to the models.
Keeping this simple this morning.

I had to stop writing to take a picture of the TV.
Yes, how Old School.
Welcome to my world.
No time to play with webcams or searches.
TWC showing the webcam.
Duh...so ignore the "took a pic of tv" look.
The message is the thing here.


And yes I have a map on my wall.
Told you I love maps.

Note this TWEET 15 HOURS AGO.



Understand New Orleans and areas around it....
........do not need Harvey like rain totals to flood.
Actually Houston floods fast too.
It's BAYOU country.
It's a swamp basically.
This is the problem.
Barry won't be Camille.
This is not a wind event but a rain/flooding event.



NOTE... the models again.
Posting this twice.

The HWRF last night set the tropical world on fire.
It showed RI upon landfall and a strong hurricane.
Everyone went crazy on that one model run.
As they do every time the GFS agrees with the EURO.
HWRF had it's 15 minutes of fame.
IF that happens everyone will ask about the HWRF.
The next run pulled back a bit this morning.
Oh well.
Note the ICON is being watched by many.

So let's let RECON fly into the plane.
Let's let the NHC do it's official thing.

The GOVERNOR of LOUISIANA DIDN'T WAIT.
Nola is not playing wait and watch game.
Their mets know the story.

Check the loop out below.
Note this is an official GOV product


allfcsts_loop_ndfd.gif (799×559)

We have a Low by Louisiana.
NOTE the WHOLE LOOP it's under RAIN.
Rain is the name of the GAME.

Lastly IF Barry goes up into the Mississippi River Valley.
There will be more rain as it's been at Flood Stage since February.
It really can't handle that much rain.

So while no it's not Harvey sort of rain.
It's still way too much and a pain.

It's not that hard to see where the NHC will put the cone.


Louisiana for now.
Texas near the Sabine River COULD be in it.
It could move closer to Mississippi or Texas....
 if something changes.
Things often change in real time.
So keep checking back.
Pay attention to your local weather sources.

You should be following these two ...


They do a great job EARLY .. 
BEFORE the CONE.
During the Cone.
Deep info.



And yeah obviously NWS New Orleans.

https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans?

Current picture of their page.


This says it all.
Flash Flood Warning Wednesday Morning.

It's that simple.

Will it be a Hurricane?
How strong a hurricane?
So many questions.

But the WATER is the problem here.
Not the wind.
I don't count anything out but....
It's that simple.
If it becomes a Cat 2 act accordingly.


ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=30


Look how close to land, over land this weather is.
Before Barry forms.

More people die from FLOODING than wind.
This area is prone to flooding.
This will be a flooding/rain event.

So BobbiStorm's Bottom Line
If you live in this area prepare now.
Prepare according to your concerns.
Is flooding an often problem in your area?
Then get out of your area.
If not hunker down.
Get supplies because you'll need them.
Stores and roads could be closed for a while.
Monitor the progress of the system.
Follow local sources they know your concerns.

I think this will be a Louisiana landfall.
I could be wrong but currently seems so.
Even so a "center" could hit TX but the rain...
...the rain will impact Louisiana.
And people UP RIVER...
Should watch because the RIVER already has problems.

I'll update later so check back often.
Models that shows this paralleling the coast..
is dangerous in a Charley way.
Not because RI or wind speed.
But because hard to say which CITY gets it ...
It's not an easy set up.
But we know it's there.
We can prepare.

Close Up Loop

atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Wide Loop

GOES16-TAW-GEOCOLOR-900x540.gif (900×540)


Note the Wave Train off Africa.
After we are done with Barry.....
... We will have Chantal to contend with.
And that WAVE South of Cuba has been cooking.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Follow me there for real time responses and discussion.

Ps.... read the previous blog.
I complained on things I am not gonna rant on now.
But I think it's way too close to land now.
It was obvious the NHC is going with the slow forming model.
It's way too close to land and surprises do pop up.
I'd rather have had an official PTCW up earlier not later.
Fly the planes in ...
... they are outta MS it's not a long flight.
Data is good for details.
We need the dropsonde data.

Those that know me know I love Nola.
I was the Keynote Speaker at a Conference there....
...on a riverboat in the Mississippi River :)

So enjoy the song.
Pray the EURO is wrong.
Hope the GFS knows something.
But even without developing deep.
The rain is the name of the game.

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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:00 AM 0 comments