2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.

Remember when?

2017....  a year few of us will forget.

Could we see a replay of such a busy season?

Yes, it's very possible.

In 1886 before satellite imagery......

... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.

We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.

And know September had multiple storms too.

3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886

 Storm #5 

8/15 Hispaniola

8/20 Indianola

Storm #6

8/19 Jamaica

8/21 Cuba

8/22 Nassau

Storm #7

8/20 TS forms near Bermuda

Becomes a Cat 3... 

Impacts George Bank

Vessels lost, ship damage.

Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.

Landfalls overlap.

Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5

Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas

Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 

Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.

Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season

1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.

Note that all 3 of these seasons...

...look similar when glancing at the maps.

Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.

We went during a rain storm yesterday.

 A food Lion in Raleigh.

Extremely clean.

Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.

Employees had masks and gloves on...

...so did the customers.

Publix moved into North Carolina.

Many transplanted Floridians live here.

As much as I love Publix... not as clean.

At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.

My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..

... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.

They are limiting popular non-perishables.

Yeah that happened.

We are stocked... not going out for a while.

Well, for walks and exercise maybe.

But not shopping any time soon.

Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......

....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.

Every trip to the store by one extra thing.

Because I can't imagine how people will shop...

... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.

With proper social distancing....

...and many items already gone.

It won't be pretty.

Prepare early........

... you can use non-perishables anytime.

That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.

Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.

Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.

Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.

I buy it, use it sparingly.

Lasts, great bread but expensive.

The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......

...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.

While they were spared hurricanes....

...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.

A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 

Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 

Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!

Tropics Tuesday. Caribbean Wave that was X96L Playing Peek a Boo... NHC says Nothing Gonna Form NADA for 5 days. Okay.. Watch Off Coast of Carolinas Down the Road. Weak Waves Wander West into the Caribbean.

I want to point out two things.

While models "agree" nothing is forming soon.

Both GFS and the EURO show the same thing.

Increased moisture in the Caribbean down the road.

Rare to see agreement with them.

www.windy.com

Always worth watching waves in that area.

Waves that do not develop end up there.

More on that later.

What is not open for business in early August.

Is open for business in late August!

Note Rob from www.crownweather.com below.

He offers suggestions.

His site is a paid for service site.

But he posts on Twitter and you can follow along.

Now let's look at the tropics today.

Love this loop Mike has on his main page.

www.spaghettimodels.com

An interesting loop.
Allows you to see our part of the world.
The front moving off of the East Coast.
Kind of hanging out off the coast of Carolina.
That happens often.
Will that next fast moving feature give it a shove?
Or what?

An old wave is flaring up near PR.
This keeps happening do you notice that?
Early August it doesn't develop.
What happens in September?
Just leaving that thought in your head.

Then we have X96L.
An interesting tropical wave.
Yes it IS a tropical wave.
It was downgraded from Invest status.
And yet it keeps rolling west.
It's a tropical wave.
Weak tropical waves move West.
Sometimes.......
Sometimes they find a friendlier environment.
Sometimes they just drift into the EPAC
Or get blown apart by shear.
This is where we are today with 96L



OLD GRAPHIC
Model Fail

Models showed it developing.
Models implied it would lift WNW.
As it stayed weak it went West.

Yesterday X96L looked like a player.

It was literally spinning on some loops.

One image doesn't really tell the whole story.

But it was an impressive image.

Then it went poof.

Nice naked wave.

Nice bones.

But looked like a goner.

Going back to the original blue red images.

Almost hard to find last night ....

This morning like the proverbial cat...

... the cat came back.

The cat that was supposed to be Chantal.

In the Caribbean now... South of Hispaniola.

Still moving West.

Moving W through dry air.

Yet finding ways to maintain convection.

Go figure.

I point this out not because it's becoming Chantal...

But I'm saying Chantal is the next name.

The name everyone thought 96L would get.

What I am saying is should it survive...

Where does it go?

Always worth watching these sort of waves.

Many times Invests and TDs that died away.

Then they come back closer to shore.

I don't want to offer a few examples.

Because I'm just saying it's fun to watch.

Not screaming shark.

Let's look at Earthnull.

It's a wave.

You see not closed.

But a kink.. a "wave" in the wind.

A small reflection where X96L is now.

Another kink for the wave that's behind it... 

Note the graphics below.

We are in Tropical Wave Season.

Dabuh loves waves.

Dabuh is smart.

Waves that don't die completely can become problems.

Another area to wonder on is off the SE coast.

There is a small chance of a set up coming.

A weak set up and most likely too weak to get a status.

But the pattern continues so over the next 3 weeks.

This pattern begs you to keep watching there.

Good loop to use often.

Especially when there is nothing going on.

It's an official loop so valuable.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

On the last day...

...a small low forms off of the Carolinas.

Maybe just a low.

Nontropical but interesting.

Also interesting is the 5 day rain projections.

That's a lot of rain just off the E Coast.

Special Extra Credit... 

Extrapolate this persistent pattern into September.

We could have serious hurricane problems.

Remember what I said yesterday?

Mike used my graphic today.

So please read yesterday's blog if you have not.

Mike is so smart.

Few realize how smart Mike is.

I've always know Mike was smart.

If you didn't read yesterday's blog.

Please do... 

...it shows how climo works.

You know the average times hurricanes form.

Every year is unique.

But it's a good guide in the slow times.

Because click bait online will say otherwise.

They will say so sooo slow.

Maybe nothing going to form?

"What's wrong with the tropics?"

Nothing is "wrong" we are right on schedule.

For an old fashioned, scary hurricane season.

With waves becoming named storms.

With hurricanes forming.

Moving WNW around the high pressure.

And then... taking aim at a city on our coast.

Aim at the islands in the way.

Everyone could be in it to quote a song.

And NOTE for Florida.

When we have a wet summer.

We often end up with a storm in October.

Out of the SW catching a front.

We have fronts still so worried.

As it's been an extremely wet summer there.

So stay tuned.

Shop online or offline.

Buy hurricane supplies.

Go to the Dollar Store...

...money is tight.

Or if you shop there often.

Look for hurricane supplies.

So much there it's unreal.

For a dollar!

Every trip pick up one supply.

Many teachers live at the Dollar Store.

They stock teacher's supplies :)

Buy water.

Buy batteries.

By canned food.

Buy paper products.

As for the tropics.

Fun to watch X96L put on a show.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Follow me there for up to date discussion ...

Ps...a wonderful Jimmy Buffet song.

I'm not saying Jamaica is getting a hurricane.

I'm saying sometimes mistakes are made.

Models made a big mistake with 96L before.

Only following models is like...

...throwing caution to the wind.

If they don't make sense you have to wonder.

Updated 2 PM. Models Flip Flopping (no surprise there...)August 1st. Models Wake Up - 96L Poised to be Chantal. (The Problem with Long Range Models) X95L Off S FL Coast Kicking Up RAIN

First off remnants of 95L just offshore.

A ball of convection but not expected to develop.

Zero chances from NHC.

Below is 96L

Still at 70% over the 5 day period.

If models continue to back off....

...they may lower this a bit soon.

Again this was supposed to develop later not sooner.

It was never expected to develop in the short term.

But models have been arguing over which way to go with it.

Good comment online.

What we are all wondering.

NHC still states there’s a 70% chance of development for #96L. However, models have been backing off on development as more unfavorable conditions are being forecasted. Still a system to watch, but chances may decrease in future outlooks. pic.twitter.com/3wyU3j2imb

— Hurricane Tracker App (@hurrtrackerapp) August 1, 2019

Generally I take the long view and watch the loops.

When I said "the problem with long range models"

That was foreshadowing.

As what the models give on Wednesday Night........

....they take back often on Thursday morning.

The problem with long range models is they are long range.

No center there.... no recon. 

They take wild stabs in the dark trying to pin down the track.

They get the track better than the intensity.

The GFS has backed off on it's Gung Ho hurricane off the E Coast.

The Euro steadily ignores development.

Note the GFS below.

It still shows "something"

But nothing organized.

The Euro still shows nothing.

Same day, same place.

Different solutions offered.

Before above.

Note the dry high pushing down on 96L

Below is after.

Dry as a bone.

Showing her bones.

Now let's look at the WV Image.

96L is cruising into a dry atmosphere.

Note waves to the East have color....

...once they make it West they don't.

This is typical.

It's August 1st.

You need lots of patience when tracking storms.

But you know that I'm sure.

Stay tuned for more.... 

models, drama and discussion.

There is a trench of dry air.

If it can get up there...

..where convection is flaring.

Just NE of the Islands.

It has a chance.

Stay tuned and keep praying it avoids the islands.

I'll be back if and when things change.

... Keep reading if you haven't done so already.

As I said earlier it would have to fight dry air.

Possibly that's what the EURO was seeing....

...that the GFS wasn't seeing.

???

:)

Keep watching.

Again note what I said.

Again there is a huge dry high to the North of 96L

It's suppressing it, sucking the moisture out of it.

Can 96L get to friendlier water?

Remember one thing!

If 96L stays weak it goes West ...

It gets further to the West.

Goes into the Caribbean.

Always watch the trends.

The trend is weak and to the West.

If it survives.

It could.

Stay tuned.....

* * * 

From earlier today.

96L forecast to be a tropical depression sooner than later.

Expected to become TS Chantal down the road much later.

Though as always it's far out and models can change.

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_mlb_anim.gif

I know models show big things for 96L

But X95L is doing it's thing now close in.

Going to be a soggy week ....

..while many wonder on 96L's future track.

Deep tropical moisture is forecast to stick around through early next week. @wsvn @7weather #flwx pic.twitter.com/rpBXqTS0Zv

— Vivian Gonzalez (@VivianGonzalez7) August 1, 2019

X95L is close in near Florida.

Near where many models have 95L/Chantal down the road.

Only a 10% chance of developing but...

... NHC says it has a chance as of 8 AM.

Leaving room here to update at 8 AM.

Old models ... new models.

It's August so get your act together.

Make a plan, buy what you need as you can.

And monitor the tropics!

This was 2 AM.. 70% chances Atlantic Wave.

10% chances 95L for development

100% chances of much rain from 95L

Far out in the Atlantic........

Development seems to be set for 96L

Most models show 96L becoming Chantal.

Remember before we go further ....

What EXISTS NOW is a strong tropical wave.

Invest 96L

If that doesn't get your attention what will?

Possibly the GFS... 

As for the Intensity models Thursday AM

If you throw out the Major Hurricane variable.

Ignore it.

This shows a hurricane is possible.

Yes many models ramp it up down the line.

Not today or tomorrow or even the next day.

Then some models go bonkers on it.

Yesterday people were ordering Fish...

This morning they are ordering Steak.

If you're a vegetarian this is a beautiful Kale salad.

It's going to be a crazy day of people watching models.

So let's begin.

# 1 it's August.

So let's not discount the models.

#2 it feels 3 weeks ahead of schedule.

Prepare accordingly.

Here’s 0z GFs 228 and 312... Getting our money’s worth from this run. pic.twitter.com/9AaaxWclSl

— Met. Eclipse (@TARCweather) August 1, 2019

The problem here really is this.......

The GFS is hot to trot.

Buying up stickers for it's favorite candidate.

The EURO is not playing along.

It did a while back then it stopped.

What will it do next?

Going to www.windy.com for good visuals.

Always entertaining GFS

The EURO model some call King.

The "King" shows nothing.

I don't like calling it that but many do.

So that's a big disconnect.

Why isn't the EURO seeing Strong Chantal?

Possibly it keeps sniffing the shear there?

None of these models say much other than...

"start your engines"

But it looks like a choppy ride.

Could the Euro be thinking too much shear?

Strong High?

Talking to Cranky last night ....

....he showed me this image.

He said I could use it so I am.

I like it because he sees the High.

A strong high moves your across the Atlantic.

But it also takes a bite out of intensity usually.

He will explain it using many excellent words.

Yes a weakness off shore can exist.

But... look how strong that high is.

Doesn't allow it much breathing room.

It's far down the line so much could change.

4 images from www.tropicaltidbits.com

Note GFS ensemble models show it further off shore.

This is the dance we do every year.

Long range models offer solutions.

Long range models offer possibilities.

Then Long range models reshuffle solutions.

Each model run is a new episode of ...

How the Tropics Turn.

The Bachelorette is over.... 

No spoilers but she Hannah B may be back... 

The Dem Debates part 1 and 2 are done ...

...well this set of debates.

Just like models change so do debates.

And speaking of the debate.

Candidates agreed Climate Change was the #1 isssue.

Yet Climate Change wasn't brought up til the end.

Yeah... not everyone watched the debate.

Some watching Netflix series.

Some watching old episodes of Gomer Pyle on Youtube.

I watched the debates.

I loop the loops.

I watch the models and think "it's too soon to know"

If you're here you're a watcher.

So we have Invest 96L and X95L to watch.

As for X95L approaching downtown Miami..

Okay approaching South Florida.

It may be just rain to you ....

...but it's going to be a mess in the S FL area 

We are watching two waves. One could bring us a soaking, the other may have some of the islands on edge. Get the latest on the Phil Factor Blog. https://t.co/bivTb3oE2B @7Weather pic.twitter.com/bPvF7i3g3E

— Phil Ferro (@PhilFerro7) August 1, 2019

Honestly believing in long term models as a lock in....

...is like thinking what happened last night shows the candidate.

Next model runs flips around a bit.

Early models are like debates a year away from election!

Note how the GFS no longer develops a well-defined anticyclone over 96L in its 6Z run (strong anticyclone it showed near 96L in previous runs seemed unrealistic). Also, w/ 96L tracking further S due to stronger W Atl ridge, it's placed more unfavorably on S side of upper high pic.twitter.com/kEWI59KOie

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 1, 2019

The debates show trends in discussion and popularity.

They show who may or may not be ready for prime time.

But they are as unreliable a predictor as long term models.

But we do love to watch either way.

Well some of us do.

I do.

What really is on the bottom line?

http://www.publix.com/pages/publix-storm-basics

I hate to sound like a broken record...

Prepare is the best thing you can do today.

August 1st is here.

Just do it.

Publix shows it all.

Wind, Rain.

Protect your home....

(Stay or go)

First Aid... medicines.

Yes one person needs diapers.

Another person needs depends.

And it depends on YOUR needs what you need.

Again old graphic to remind you.

Above is where X95L was expected to form.

Models for 96L show a continuation of that game plan.

The team of 2019 tropical systems is simple.

Get under the High, move towards the Islands.

Pull North because cold fronts still on the maps.

Threaten the coast with landfalls.

Surprises are always expected.

What they said. This model run is a reminder review emergency plans. Just one run and hasn’t formed but just do it. https://t.co/NA1c40vivL

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) August 1, 2019

Above is the GFS Thursday Morning.... 

...but that's stronger than inhaling Espresso brewing.

Monitor it ... that's the point here.

Watch Cantore on air.....on the beach.

Watch Mike on Facebook Live.

Go about your business but monitor it!

That simple and remember it's August.

TROPICS: We are monitoring #96L this morning as we enter August. This tropical wave will likely develop over the weekend or into next week into a tropical depression or storm east of the Lesser Antilles. Long time to monitor it. We will keep you advised. #FirstAlertWX pic.twitter.com/SnjnaqPmIL

— Garrett Bedenbaugh (@wxgarrett) August 1, 2019

Be like Susie and know it's time to wake up!

Could this be the year Chantal is retired?
I sure hope not.... it's a pretty name.

Using an old fashioned version.

Because this is an old fashioned hurricane season.

And if you drink... you may need an Old Fashioned!
or a Kale smoothie ;)

GFS or EURO?

Landfall or Fish Storm?

You got options today.

It's luckily still very far away.

Lots more Spaghetti Models down the road.

That I can tell you for sure!!

That and prepare now for hurricane season!

Choose according to your needs what you buy...

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Ps... Great song.