Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, May 01, 2020

2020 Hurricane Season - 1 Month til June 1st. A Busy Hurricane Season Forecast with Possible Landfall Patterns. Looking Back at 1999, 2007 and 1886 & the Indianola Hurricane Matagorda Bay Texas.


Remember when?
2017....  a year few of us will forget.
Could we see a replay of such a busy season?
Yes, it's very possible.
In 1886 before satellite imagery......
... 3 storms all danced close by as they did in 2017.
We know that from the track information.

Note the month of August below.
And know September had multiple storms too.
3 Major Hurricanes in August 1886


 Storm #5 
8/15 Hispaniola
8/20 Indianola

Storm #6
8/19 Jamaica
8/21 Cuba
8/22 Nassau

Storm #7
8/20 TS forms near Bermuda
Becomes a Cat 3... 
Impacts George Bank
Vessels lost, ship damage.
Becomes a N Atlantic player.

The time frames overlap.
Landfalls overlap.
Imagine the satellite imagery today.....

Note 1886 is most famous for Storm #5
Indianola Hurricane - Matagorda Bay, Texas


Yes similar track to 1900 Hurricane... 
Similar but different.

Something to think on as its a month til Hurricane Season.

So Happy May 1st! New Month here as we zip through 2020 always wondering "what's next?" as it's been a slow, motion train wreck since the virus began spreading across the country and masks became all the rage to show off your favorite team, hobby or level of hypochondria. Okay, seriously I've tried to go slow with news of a forecast busy hurricane season that many experts have predicted could include multiple landfalls along the US coast as highly possible. I don't like pulling the mask off the old Lone Ranger nor do I like pouring oil onto a fire or screaming "FIRE!" in a crowded theater but the time has come to get serious about the Atlantic Hurricane Season that begins one month from now officially, but can begin earlier in reality should something in the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast spin up impressively enough for the NHC to give it a name and begin issuing advisories.

Let's look at 3 possibly analog hurricane seasons that began early and ended way too late for most of us. Remember every hurricane season is unique, however many have commonalities from positive conditions that deliver a busy season to the similar tracks taken due to obviously similar atmospheric and oceanic conditions. They are other years I'm concerned on but going with these three today as they all were busy seasons when the water was warm, the wind shear was low (allowing for vigorous waves to develop into Major Hurricanes) and had similar tracks as predicted as possible by many concerned on this hurricane season.



Let's work backwards and begin with the 2017 Hurricane Season as it began extremely early on April 19th with a very early season system and multiple warnings in the media by experts that an early hurricane season doesn't mean it will be a busy hurricane season. That is true as often a May storm forms and then we wait until late August for the next storm to form but it's not rule that isn't always broken but a much repeated statement when a system pops up before the local networks have even begun airing Hurricane Preparations stories.

2017 was an odd year in that weather was in the news often and everyone watched in real time as New Orleans itself had a tornado in February. In June Tropical Storm Cindy made landfall near that part of the Gulf of Mexico to be followed by Harvey that made landfall to the West of there but slid back into the GOM and made a second landfall. Finally Nate made landfall on that general part of the GOM coastline making people in Nola and much of Florida and Houston and elsewhere wish the 2017 Hurricane Season would be one for the history books.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season



Next we have 1999 another busy hurricane season with tracks similar to the predicted areas of concern for 2020. Again we see long trackers and hurricanes aimed at the US coast as well as some Caribbean and Cuban activity. The first storm formed on June 11th and ended on November 23rd leaving many of us happy to see it go. With 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes it was one for the record books. Also warm water, light shear and all the typical positive factors that bring Hurricanes to our door along the Hurricane Coast. As a trivia point it's worth noting Louisiana and Texas had tornadoes on Easter Sunday in April of 1999. Obviously I'm watching for years with similar severe weather prior to the Hurricane Season that coincide with other factors forecast for the 2020 Hurricane Season.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_1999-04-03_tornadoes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season
1886 

Now I want to go back into history ... far distant history to 1886 when the Atlantic saw a very busy hurricane season that when no less than 7 storms made landfall. The season began on June 13th and ended on October 26th, but it is worth noting the numbers are very similar to what is forecast for this coming year ... especially when you add in the 1886 Hurricane Season didn't have satellite imagery available so one can only imagine the additional storms that may have existed further from the coastlines nor not mentioned in ship reports; in those days if the ship went down with the storm there wasn't always a record of it being hit by a tropical system.


Note that all 3 of these seasons...
...look similar when glancing at the maps.
Each is different but many commonalities.

I cannot say enough about how horrendous the loss of life was from the 1886 Hurricane Season during a time when communities with busy, Boom Towns woke up totally unprepared for what the next day or two would deliver to their doorstep. In a time before Hurricane forecasting all they knew was the barometer was dropping and weather was moving in but rather than a typical afternoon thunderstorm a deadly hurricane packing winds of 150 mph washed away some communities such as Indianola Texas and many bodies were never found in small bayou towns along the coast so the death toll could be much higher. In those days when some single young man managed to survive such a catastrophe he got out of town fast whatever way he could and he didn't document his trip on Instagram... he simply left for greener pastures .... often ones where he decided a snow storm was better than whatever it was that just wiped his home off the map. 

In 2020 we complain about how bad a long term forecast is because it was predicated that it was possible that the African Wave would develop into a hurricane and impact Georgia and it made landfall in South Carolina; oh my goodness the critics on Twitter and in WhatsApp groups go crazy. A storm tries to form down near the Yucatan and everyone debates if it will live or die off and doubts it can possibly become a strong hurricane than slams into the Florida Panhandle as a Category 5 Hurricane. 

I'm not saying 2020 will look exactly as the above mentioned hurricane seasons did but I can tell you that according to the forecast conditions and track patterns expected it could end up looking very similar. What I can tell you is that unlike the citizens of Indianola in 1886 you will be given much warning way before it makes landfall, but before waiting for a Hurricane Warning to be posted you better be ready early this year. Unless something miraculous occurs, Covid-19 is expected to be a factor in our lives throughout this coming hurricane season especially early in the season. Supply chain factors have already become a problem for certain products such as the ever important paper products and protein from pork to chicken to beef being at some times hit hard. Note if you have a lake, river or any place to fish near you ... you may want to learn to take up fishing and if you are a vegetarian ... good luck with Tofu. If there's no tofu stock up on dried beans and pasta if you can find them... Oh, yeast is apparently worth more than toilet paper currently across the nation.

Recent quick trip to the Grocery Store.
We went during a rain storm yesterday.
 A food Lion in Raleigh.
Extremely clean.
Aisles marked carefully for 1 Way travel.
Employees had masks and gloves on...
...so did the customers.



Publix moved into North Carolina.
Many transplanted Floridians live here.
As much as I love Publix... not as clean.
At the registers they wore  masks... no gloves.
My husband ran in for some Kosher chicken..
... grabbed it, got out...got pictures for me.
They are limiting popular non-perishables.


Yeah that happened.
We are stocked... not going out for a while.
Well, for walks and exercise maybe.
But not shopping any time soon.
Amazon has been working well otherwise.

So I am begging you.......
....prepare EARLY for the Hurricane Season.
Every trip to the store by one extra thing.
Because I can't imagine how people will shop...
... if they have to wait hours to get into the storm.
With proper social distancing....
...and many items already gone.
It won't be pretty.
Prepare early........
... you can use non-perishables anytime.
That's why they are popular.

If you have a Panera type store near you.
Buy bread early, freeze it if you have space.
Yeast is gone and the bread aisles aren't full.
Okay, lot's of Dave's Killer Bread.
I buy it, use it sparingly.
Lasts, great bread but expensive.
The cheap white bread is gone, gone, gone...

One last note on 1886......
...a picture after the Fire of 1886 in Key West.
While they were spared hurricanes....
...they were in rebuilding mode from the fire.



A personal footnote to this discussion on 1886 is that it's the year my family moved to Key West. The timing was most likely dictated to by the 1886 fire that destroyed a good part of the town as people needed products and they were already there because of the Cigar Industry. A great, great grandfather was in the Tinware Business originally from England and as after the fire Key West insisted buildings have metal rooftops and that's how we ended up with tin roofs for the cat to walk on and how he established his tinware and crockery business while his sons traveled to Cuba often buying tobacco and involved in the cigar business.

So those are my thoughts. There are models showing a "low" forming off the East Coast and other long range models are trying to close off a low pressure system in the North Gulf of Mexico and down in the Caribbean there has been an on and off spin going on that isn't that uncommon in busy years to see. The Epac is forecast to come alive again soon with what should be a named storm.

Have you started making a list yet? 
Please do so... a list for food, supplies and to figure out where you would go and shelter if you need to evacuate in the Year of Covid-19.

Good luck. 
Prayers to everyone to stay safe, well and sane this weekend.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... check this video out, it's short and informative... packing of beef in tin cans began here apparently so next time you buy Spam for a hurricane... remember Indianola!













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posted by BobbiStorm @ 9:48 AM 0 comments

Friday, November 15, 2019

Coastal Low with Tropical Energy ... Feels Like Winter... November. What Will This Winter Bring I Wonder...


atl_ir4_sat_tropicalindex_anim.gif (640×480)

Is that wild or what?



And there it is....
...our coastal Storm.
Our Nor'easter like system.


A large system.
Note the dark convection at it's tail.
Down in the Caribbean.
Where it's energy is coming from.. 

Watching it unfold in real time is beautiful.



Watches and warnings are up.
I wouldn't be surprise if more are hoisted.
This system is over performing.
Stronger than expected.

Love the discussion out of Raleigh
"as I write ...."
Weather can be so live.
Best reality show there is...


An awesome meteorologist is in Charlotte, NC.
I joke I want to move there...
....just so I'm in his forecast area.
In truth I like Charlotte but he's awesome.




This is a huge system with flooding concerns.
Inland flooding where there are lakes.
The Carolinas have many lakes.
Wind whipped waves on lakes.
High waves.... wind... beach erosion.


And there's another system on the way.

Winter is on the move this Fall.

I'm trying to hold onto Autumn a bit.
Though it feels like winter.

Cooking soup and the house smells good.
Be very careful at the beaches this weekend.
And I mean up in Virginia and beyond. 
OBX is used to this.... 
If you want storms it's a great place to live.
Hurricanes and Winter Storms.



Tropical Storm force like winds.
Gusts closer to hurricane force possible.



If you live in my neck of the woods.
And you like stormy weather....
... you'll love this weekend!

Coastal Lows continue.... 
...at some point the weather will be more wintry.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Great video of a real Winter Storm at OBX.
Doesn't get more beautiful than that.
If you like winter storms and OBX
And I do... 








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posted by BobbiStorm @ 11:49 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, October 08, 2019

UPDATED Invest 91L & 92L October Storm Off the East Coast... Storm & Gale Warnings for NYC An Unraveling Mystery .. Storm With a Kick But Will It Stay Offshore?


So now we have Invest 91L and 92L
Earthnull signature shows they are closing off.

92L 



91L 


Our focus currently is 91L
Or the concept of a coastal storm.
The center may stay offshore but...
...the weather may be blasted on shore.
Look at those purples and reds for Cape Cod.
And ouch look out Long Island!


Visible of Invest 92L
A swirl or a center?
Either way this is about the weather associated with it.




Note NWS has Storm Warnings and Gale Warnings up.




A look at NYC shows the issues.
Ocean facing beaches are going to get pounded.
And the water around Manhattan will be wild.
Don't forget... Manhattan is an island.


Models... track offshore.
But the weather won't all stay offshore.


Compare and contrast with the image below.





Earlier today ...not closed off but trying. 
...below.




You need a closed low vs heavy weather.
Waiting to see what the NHC does...


Not much I can really add other than models for the most part keep this system off shore though weather may impact the beaches and areas such as Long Island that stick awkwardly out into the Atlantic. If you live in any area along the beach that is prone to flooding pay close attention to local news and weather updates.


Rain stays mostly offshore...
....well heavy crazy rain.


Our system stays parked off there.
Models in agreement for the most part.



Euro and GFS... Offshore Storm.


Kids in Miami weren't happy today.
Rained all morning nonstop.







www.spaghettimodels.com

I love the way Mike's mind works.
Models being run on the orange gumdrop in the Atlantic.
Later they will become Tutti Fruitti 
.....as they mix flavors close in.

The water vapor image below shows the parts.
Curling up Eastern Orange Swirl.
Tropical Plume of Moisture with two lemons.
And a digging serious cold system out in the Plains.
When they come together watch out.

Already windy at the Outer Banks 
(what else is new...)
And in NC I'm waiting for the lead front...
... out on the Plains people are waiting on snow.
And everyone wants to know..
Does it get a name?

I hope so as it would explain what it is....
... as Coastal Storms/Gales get hyped too much.
With fake names the media gives them.
Like SNOWCANE (I was there in NYC once...)
There are very few Perfect Storms.





Look at the same view in technicolor
My favorite colors.


My daughter worked on an art project in NY this week.
An incredible artist friend was in a contest.
To build a Sukkoth... it's basically a hut.
Jewish holiday... we build these huts and eat in them.
To remember wandering around the desert generations ago.
You know the Bible Story.. 
Red Sea, wandered around the desert then home to Israel.
But while wandering they had temporary shelters.
It's a custom to decorate them ...
...but there was a concert to build one artistically.
My daughter helped her friend.
They painted it with invisible paint.
So the walls looked one way ....
...unless you had a black light and voila.
Words and pictures appeared.



Reminded me of how weather comes together.
The elements are there clearly.
But until it comes together you don't see it...
...and when you do ... you go "WOW!"

Her friend Rachel won she's excited.
a lot of work, art takes work.

And Mother Nature is writing ....writing....
one heck of an October Storm Story.


The ongoing drama of the developing October Gale...
...off the East Coast.
Close in ... home grown trouble.
But carrying with it moisture from many places.
 Old fruit bowl from Monday Night below.
Compare and Contrast with the new one above.


Leaving you with some information on the real Sandy.
You know the one the TWC mentioned all night last night.

The problem with October storms is that they are filled with surprises and you have to understand the nature of October is that it is a mix of systems some cold core old lows that delivered snow somewhere out on the Plains in places we expect snow to fall in October mixing it up with plumes of tropical moisture lingering off the East Coast. It's like some long prize fight between two opponents one late to the scene and the other a newcomer onto the scene too early. Rocky vs Apollo Creed or LBJ in a race with JFK for the nomination of the Democratic Party or Lady Gaga singing with Tony Bennett. You're just not sure how it's going to play out but you buy a ticket to attend the event. And, then you wonder whether it will be rained out or be a memorable event you talk about for years to come. 

In truth I hope the NHC gives it some sort of name, because if they don't the Media with a capital M is going to blast this all over the media hyping it with shades of Sandy mixed into to a Super Storm ... October Gale, oh my gosh you'll hear so many names for a system that will be most likely anchored off the East Coast slamming the beaches with strong tropical moisture and high wind and heavy surf. It's not a weekend to go to the Jersey Shore unless you want to do some storm chasing or take photographs.

And the reason I say this is that the TWC had nonstop coverage of "not Sandy" all night last night while they spoke wistfully about memories of Sandy against a huge screen with the Sandy Track for over an hour... If I had a dollar for every time they said "Sandy" I could not only go buy an awesome new winter coat but incredible boots and gloves to match! It bugged me a lot as those close to me know as they wanted to make that connection, hold viewers at the screen yet at the same time warn them that much like Sandy the NHC may not treat it as a hurricane yet the general public needs to think of it "like a hurricane" out there as the damage especially along the coast could be high. And that is not to say there could be flooding inland in areas prone to flooding when this sort of set up occurs.

Understand that in truth this is a storm that evolves in real time and there are many variables. So many parts of the puzzle and they were shipped separately by Fed Ex, UPS and Great Aunt Virginia sent the last piece by way of the Postal Service so you can't put it together until they all arrive at your door. No, you just can't order a messy storm on Amazon. I know... just seems so unfair.


I wanted to point out a few facts about Sandy that was a Hurricane down deep in the Caribbean with moisture wound up into it before it expanded and went extratropical but still contained that huge punch much like Matthew another October mess from the deep tropics that was sent North along the Atlantic. So know currently we have pieces of the puzzle being assembled by Mother Nature so remember to check back often to see exactly how it all came together and only then ... much like a snow storm...will the NHC and the NWS get all their warnings and wordage correct.

 "On October 24, Sandy became a hurricane, made landfall near Kingston, Jamaica, re-emerged a few hours later into the Caribbean Sea and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane. On October 25, Sandy hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 26, Sandy moved through the Bahamas.[9] On October 27, Sandy briefly weakened to a tropical storm and then restrengthened to a Category 1 hurricane. Early on October 29, Sandy curved west-northwest (the "left turn" or "left hook") and then[10] moved ashore near Brigantine, New Jersey, just to the northeast of Atlantic City, as a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds.[3][11] Sandy continued drifting inland for another few days while gradually weakening, until it was absorbed by another approaching extratropical storm on November 2.[3][12]"


So that was Sandy... for us whatever this is called is one Low off of North Carolina calling down to the Low near Florida singing Follow ME!  And Invest 91L far to the East says ..."wait I want to come along too" so the NC system says to 91L "Follow Me!" and then we see just what will be.

I'll be offline tomorrow for Yom Kippur so check with all those people on Twitter that I follow who do the weather so well and I'll back Tomorrow evening before going up the coast for Sukkos (wink wink) maybe I'll see some weather... but what kind of weather? Stay tuned it's an October Mystery. The NHC has named many systems this season that many argued were not classic systems, but with this close in and it's October I think they may weigh in with a name or some sort of special discussion. I'm not a gambling person but if I was I'd vote on a name and long discussion explaining how it's going extratropical and the wind field is expanding etc... maybe a few sentences using the word regardless....

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps.... still pondering the possibilities of a storm out of the Caribbean later in October.
And there will probably be more snow out West than rain on the East Coast. But too soon to tell.


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posted by BobbiStorm @ 6:46 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

October in the Tropics. Lorenzo Moving on to Europe... Something in the Caribbean? Stay Tuned.

GOES16-TAW-13-900x540.gif (900×540)

Things of Interest.
You can't see Lorenzo but it's way up there in the Atlantic.
Headed to Ireland, GB and Europe.
Old Karen rain remnants out there doing nothing.
Some say it's Karen...others say not.
It's nothing for now.
A wave trying to sneak into the Caribbean.
And our Caribbean area being watched with low chances.


Showing 2 views of the area in our backyard...
Down in the Caribbean forecast to possibly form...
...moving up near the Yucatan.



Low chances but it's a watch and wait set up.
And that is typical this time of year.


Let's pretend we are playing football.
This quarterback is down there...
...by himself.
Waiting for his team to show up.
He looks up and there are all these linebackers.
He decides to just sit a while and wait.
And that works as the high will go away.
Everything is being held South....
...and shear is shifting everything to the East for now.
Something is there but nothing is happening.

Something very weak could form.
Generally this is not the big concern I had.
But it does shows where our focus moves in October.

Every other run of models show a hurricane.
Then nothing on the next run.
Then a hurricane.
You just sit and look at the models and go:
"yeah right" and move on til tomorrow.

Some models show waves in the Atlantic trying...
to develop or they run low into the Carib.
Then sneak up on us from the South.
And that brings us to the real point today.


It's the first week of October.
And the main pattern is shown above.
Note things can form in many places.
But the most likely tracks are there.
Where we are with the yellow area being watched.

October is like that time of year just before hurricanes start spinning in mid August and everyone starts saying it's going to be a weak season or a dead season and nothing is happening and meteorologists online begin bickering using acronyms others don't understand and then while they are arguing over how dead the season may be the season begins to show development everywhere. October is kind of like that, we move towards that second peak of the season and wait for cold fronts to finally move into Carolina but we know they won't make it through Florida and that's where cold fronts stall out leaving themselves draped across Florida and the tropics come alive again at the same time that fronts become more frequent and any tropical area that does form can track across Florida in October. People worry on other times of year but October is prime time in South Florida. That doesn't mean it cannot happen in the Northern Gulf of Mexico or something can side swipe us in the Carolinas but October is prime time for Florida. It's a secret many of us know but the media spends the whole summer making people worry on a Florida landfall and then out of the South...somewhere ... a system surprises us. 

An excellent post below by a very good meteorologist. Remember it and remember it well.





Showing that map again.
Look at October.
22 storms track across South Florida.
Every which way they can.

Think on that a while.

I'll update tomorrow.

Oh wait... Lorenzo.


Very cool storm really.

Lucky for us it wanted to go to Great Britain
And Europe.
And helps move the seasons along ....
...dislodging the cool air up by the poles.
Keep watching those cold fronts!

If you think I'm a long read.
And if you like long reads.
Here's a great one on hurricane history.

http://digitalcollections.fiu.edu/tequesta/files/1953/53_1_01.pdf


In early October they can go any which way they can..
...later in October they tend to bend right with a cold front.
They can do all sorts of funky things.
Here's a track for that 1906 Hurricane.


Without a dance card.....
..you can't tell where it began or ended ;)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Florida_Keys_hurricane

Stay tuned.

BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram




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posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:03 AM 21 comments