A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!
Friday, November 15, 2019
Coastal Low with Tropical Energy ... Feels Like Winter... November. What Will This Winter Bring I Wonder...
Back From the Beach. Models Whisper Southern Snow. Pet Peeve about 1926 Miami Hurricane. Florida History. Weather Thoughts.
Yeah yeah it loves to promise snow late in the 10 day.
Other apps do it too.... it's model driven of course.
So we have a snowy jigsaw puzzle.
Keep watching.
Chick lives in the Sandhills.
Usually they have a slimmer chance than Raleigh.
Roxboro has the best chances usually.
Okay I'm home and the first thing to greet me this morning was the possibility of snow on my various weather apps. I use them but I don't trust them that much but it's a cheap thrill more a game than anything else. "What does the weather app show for the next 10 days" and come on we all do it because if you are reading this blog you are probably slightly obsessed with the weather. Any forecast beyond the five day to me is still iffy though I tend to trust the seven day a bit more. 10 days is speculation and innuendo and means as Brad says the pattern is favorable!
I'll wait to see what Wes in Raleigh says and Allan who is also in the Raleigh area over the next few days while adjusting to the cold night time temperatures again. Being into weather means that you check the weather often when making plans to celebrate events. This past weekend was a 10 year anniversary of sorts and I was debating whether to spend it in the Raleigh area or maybe drive to Charlotte or up to Highpoint but after checking the long range weather models I felt there was a good possibility we could pull off going to Myrtle Beach and the weather would be almost summer like if things fell into place. Again, what Chick said, it's a puzzle with pieces still falling into place when you watch the models. A suggestion of 72 degrees in Raleigh for Sunday was nice but a suggestion of similar temperatures at the beach if only the front would push through and clear out a good week's worth of gray skies and rainy days. Honestly did not see the sun for a week after getting back from Miami last week; after a while it does get to you I have to be honest and I don't generally mind a few rainy days. After an extremely beautiful sunset in Myrtle Beach's Broadway on the Beach I fell asleep to howling wind and woke up to this pristine, beautiful, incredible #nofilter sunrise with venus shining down on me. The last vestiges of clouds can be seen at the bottom of the horizon. Seen many beautiful sunrises in Myrtle Beach and other beaches but nothing like that.
I have blue skies outside out beyond the pine trees.
Carolina pines and Carolina Blue skies.
Winter in Raleigh when the sun shines.
Stu Ostro is good to follow.
He's one of the best.
Met him at some Hurricane Center event once.
He knows his stuff :)
This is a perfect example of an annular hurricane.
With that big, wide, perfectly round eye.
Wondering if that eye is bigger than the state of Rhode Island.
Possibly. Awesome and very far away.
A very strong February hurricane in the Pacific.
Strong and rare even for the Pacific.
Speaking of Hurricanes.
One of my biggest pet peeves is this:
"The 1926 Miami Hurricane killed the Boom"
No it did not.
I've written articles for Miami History magazines.
Researched endlessly with Dr. Paul George.
The Miami 1926 Hurricane hurt Miami.
But Miami was down for the count earlier that year.
The much awaited 1926 Winter Season was a BUST!
Bad press on true news stories flooded the national media.
New laws were put into place to stop bad real estate deals.
Real Estate practices then basically were like buying stock back when in that you could buy Florida Real Estate (not built on yet and often under water still) for a mere percentage of the price and that deal could be "flipped" and turned over ten times in an hour on mere speculation. Some of those subdivisions such as Coral Gables did get built, but many did not and people (tourists are people too) were swindled out of money by those hoping to make good money. New regulations were passed putting an end to the "Binder Boys" period ... a name mostly for their style of clothes they wore that were popular in the roaring 20s and their buying land on a binder... a wing and a prayer method that made them rich for a while.
A huge ship named the Prins Valdemar capsized in a winter storm and ended up blocking the "turning harbor" that ships used to get into Miami and offload their lumber that was the fuel for the housing boom; without lumber it was hard to build houses and it was equally as hard to get other merchandise and people into the Magic City. Being Miami after they finally were able to get it up they hauled it over to the nearby docks and eventually turned it into a floating restaurant and party venue popular in Miami. Only in Miami does the problem get sold as a tourist attraction.
Add in two railroad strikes put a halt to the flow of money and people.
I mean in WINTER of 1926 you could not get to Miami for trying.
And you could not get building supplies or merchandise in either.
And the National Media now knew about the land swindles.
Florida Real Estate = Selling Swamp Land suddenly..
But oh what a time it was in the Roaring 20s.
Miami was a real paradise.
Before the ship capsized and the trains stopped running.
And the Media had a field day with the Binder Boys.
And then came the 1926 Miami Hurricane.
The Smithsonian does history.
But they should tell the whole story.
But hey it's more dramatic to blame it on the Hurricane.
And it is incredibly great footage.
It's fake in that the real footage was not in color.
But think of it as a colorized sequel :)
The hurricane gave Miami focus.
They cleaned up, rebuilt and were open again by 1927.
In the same way all the blue tarps from Irma are gone...
...and new construction is everywhere.
Hurricanes are a meteorological form of gentrification.
5 years after Hurricane Andrew....
... Homestead and Cutler Ridge property was worth way more.
People sold and left, real estate deals were everywhere.
Expensive construction with pools and higher price tags.
And the beat goes on ....
North Carolina is beer country.
Beer is good on a rainy day.
Going to the beach is better when the sun comes out.
And the temperature is forecast to climb to 73!
And that is the beauty of Raleigh.
You can drive up to the mountains...
....or down to the beach.
Or just hang out in Raleigh.
But will it snow in Raleigh soon?
I'll be watching ...
But this week is mild temps and cold nights.
Works for me.
A little note here in that if we do get Carolina snow it's worth remembering some trees have early leaves and some trees are covered in early blossoms and a wet, messy snow will put pressure on those trees and I'm not even talking on the possibility of ice. So when things bloom early it's beautiful to see but it has a secondary threat if snow falls when flowers are on the trees and red maples already have new red leaves unfurling in the Carolina Blue sunlight.
And in about a month of so we will be worrying on pollen popping. Yep... Carolina has lots of seasons; summer, fall, winter, spring and pollen season!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps.... if you keep listening to that hurricane video on the 1926 the really chilling story is told on the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. If you listen to the first hand survivors you will know it was not your average "storm surge" but truly a tidal wave that washed over the Florida Keys as the construction of the railroad created dams that early Florida author and ecologist warned against building that way but he was ignored and what he said would happen did happen and Florida Bay sucked the storm surge in the Atlantic over the railroad and the Florida Keys in one huge tidal wave that washed the train off the tracks and washing people out to sea.
Landfalling Gordon Strengthening Moving Towards GOM Beaches - Hurricane Florence
I've often explained I like the map presentation of the Canadian Hurricane Center especially when there are multiple systems in the Atlantic. You can see them both and time stamps for both time and forecast wind speed at that time. Note how in the long term the remnants of Gordon bend to the right towards Florence that is forecast to most likely find a weakness in the Ridge and move to the North away from the East Coast. The EURO model has consistently seen a strong ridge with Florence moving closer to the US coast than the GFS that took it whoosh out to sea until today when they flip flopped and the stubborn EURO showed an opening in the ridge for Florence and immediately the GFS showed Florence moving slower getting trapped under the ridge. You can't make this up and that's why many don't pay attention to the long term models as much as they used to as they never seem to come to a consensus. The NHC blends them and usually extrapolates the movement of the storm over the next five days giving weight to both extremes. You can read how they do this in their better than average discussion today trying to explain the many contradictory signs and models for Florence.
Generally if you keep extrapolating the track day by day.
Adjusting in real time for minor changes.
You get a pretty accurate track.
If Florence feels that weakness and takes the doorway North..
Bermuda will be lucky.
Because other wise Bermuda may have to worry on Florence.
As always it's a wait and see...
Long term models are kind of for entertainment at this point.
What do I think? People ask me. I can see the logic for the various possibilities. But each of those possibilities have to do with several things happening that have not happened yet. Each possible track relies on variables and if the variable doesn't pan out the model is as old as stale white bread left out on the table too long.
Florence can find the weakness in the ridge that has been slowly moistening up as the convection I have previously mentioned NE of PR moved up into the Central Atlantic interacting with an Upper Level feature that is slowly eroding the Western edge of the previously strong ridge.
If Florence does not take that developing weakness she could get further West and be a problem for Bermuda and if she gets way further West at the least she can bump up the surf at the beaches and make people along the East Coast more than concerned what she will do next. I can see her slowing down, battling the negative conditions that the NHC has outlined in their discussion she will soon be encountering; she could stall, loop and even intensify over warmer water closer in into a Major Hurricane briefly. That part of the Atlantic is ripe for supporting a strong hurricane this year. Most likely you can put money on Florence finding another weakness or a system coming off of the US down the road that picks her up and takes her out to sea. That's a bet you can rarely lose money on but if you do you lose big and the East Coast has more to lose than a small bet between meteorologists. It's just really too soon to tell. It's a good two days away from knowing what condition Florence will be in and by then we will see if the EURO takes the last model run and runs with it or it flips back to a weaker version of it's horror story run from the other night. Stay tuned.
Image above from yesterday where Florence looked like a Hurricane.
It's from yesterday's blog.
Today's discussion from the NHC mentions ...
...what I spoke about yesterday.
As a side note I believe Florence has been a hurricane for a while, but as the NHC has been busy with Gordon it seems to have been either ignored or more so a sense of lets see how she is in another few hours as she is so far out at sea it doesn't matter. I posted on this yesterday pretty much insisting Florence as at near Hurricane Strength but the NHC is the bottom line.
As for Gordon... we are watching him finally pull together again and look like the storm that lashed Miami and Key Biscayne with quite a punch out of no where. She closed her center off again and she's looking the best she has been and just on top as this is what the models have agreed on for days. Again I said "AGREED" as most models have agreed on the end game for Gordon.
There isn't much to add as much as to just watch it play out with Gordon, a very one sided system with most of it's convection from about 11 AM to 6 PM with the NE and East side being very strong. It's almost like a shield of strong Tropical Storm force conditions moving towards the coast and it will push a storm surge (not a huge one) onto low lying roads, beaches and places really used to this sort of set up.
Radar
This is explained well below.
Consolidation occurring.
Less blobs everywhere.
More of a center.
Can it attain hurricane status?
Slight chance...
NHC put it into their forecast..
..that ups the probability.
Looking better and better.
Stay tuned.
I'll update later if and when Gordon is updated.
Oh as for the models...
...those long range models we love to hate.
But we need to peek at..
We'll talk about that later.
And a few models show something next week...
...near the Yucatan.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
I don't think I have ever been to an Alabama beach...
Tropics Quiet. Texas and Louisiana Getting Tropical RAIN. Heat Wave Hits Early Before Summer Officially Arrives. Go to the Beach or the Movies.Cool Off. Eat Ice Cream...
Monday in the Tropics.
Atlantic Side
EPAC...
Wave discussion....
A Westbound Wave...
Yes there's a wave.
It's the 3rd wave mentioned.
Shear is there.
But so is the wave.
This is the dance of the tropics.
There's a frontal boundary.
East of Florida.
Dangling..
The real story in our part of the world is the extreme early heat on the East Coast. I think the issue here is timing in that it came on like gangbusters. The weather was nice, it was getting warmer, it's only June and the Summer Solstice hasn't set in and then suddenly it feels like late Summer in early June. It throws people off in ways that are hard to explain. People get testy, they drive crazy, they don't feel like things are aligned properly. We have such an illusion as to the actual control we have in the world with regard to Mother Nature. It's as if she is programmed at some point and continues marches to her own tune. She starts Summer too soon and Winter often lasts too long. And, that's weather you can't control it but you can watch and have a great ride like on one long wave to shore. The shore in the case of most of America is Winter and it follows after Fall and we capitalize them as they are raised to a level of a person such as the President and the Governor. Let's just treat this June as if it's early July and move on.
Waves form off of Africa and roll West not giving a damn if there is Saharan Dust out there because there's always SAL out there. That's life in June and June is always a crap shoot in the Tropics. Either it's way too quiet or it's way too hot. And, people online in the weather community get nasty, testy and extremely judgmental. And you know why? They want something to really track the way a surfer wants a wave and someone up at bat wants that pitch that's gonna be just right for him to make a grand slam out into the stands. Yeah, if you had lots of money and time you can jump on a plane and go anywhere you want until the weather gets to where you want it on the TV dial and then fly back and get back in the race. Life really isn't a song but we can live our life like it is a song as Jimmy says, so if you don't like the weather today just take a deep breath, stay in the AC, drink some Iced Tea and wait it out cause time is a moving fast this year. And, no this Heat Wave is not epic as much as early and that makes people nervous because if it's this hot in June what will August bring?
Something to think on with regard to the Tropics in these quiet days while we watch Carlotta wash up on the shores of the EPAC and we watch the little yellow X make it's way steadily towards the Texas coastline and it will rain in Beaumont Texas and parts of Louisiana will get rain. And, that is life in the Tropics on the Monday after a wonderful Father's Day Weekend where I ate some sort of Espresso Chocolate Ice Cream and I'll sip cold vegetable juices today and do penance and Thank God I'm alive and not complain it's hot today because it's gonna be even hotter as the Summer marches on. But I am watching for that really great wave that is going to make it past the Saharan Dust and develop somewhere close in to the coast and hopefully I'll be at the beach to see it roll by. Trust me as a Miami girl I know HOT and July in Miami is HOT but eventually I'll be back there. Til then I'm enjoying the Carolinas and my friends online and my kids on Snapchat. Life is good. It's hot.. eat Ice Cream! Or sip Iced Tea. Get in the groove we are just starting this Summer Game we play and it's going to move towards a crescendo as July moves towards August and then things will really shake, rattle and roll.
So go buy a kiddie pool and put it in your backyard and climb in even if you don't have any kiddies. Throw some ice cubes in it if it's really hot. Go take a ride to the beach or to the lake or put on a beach movie.. go to the movies and stimulate the economy and find a theater that cranks the AC up real cold and enjoy. This is how we live, this is what we do. My kids went to the beach yesterday in Seattle (oh what a beach) Alki Beach always beautiful with palm trees and mountains in the distance and my son in Miami took his baby daughter to the beach for the first time and let her toes tangle down so she could feel the sand between her toes because that's who we are... And, way Up North in Up State NY where it was so hot it felt like Miami my daughter put her little boy into the pool to cool off and for the always important photo shot. Be like a child, enjoy and embrace the heat or crank up the AC and enjoy.
The Hurricane Season is on it's way whether you want it to be or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if El Nino is building up in the Pacific or not. The Hurricane Season is on it's way even if the water in the far Eastern Atlantic is still cool enough to feel like Pudget Sound. It won't stay that way. Trust me. Oh and if you have a Publix go enjoy the cool AC and the friendly staff and shop for some Hurricane Supplies also buy some Ice Ceam and Popsicles for those long hot summer days before the hurricanes threaten your world.
NHC Bullish on Alberto Forming 90% Chances 2 PM. Think of Invest 90L as a Pirate. The NHC Has Their Maps... Pirate Alberto Is Biding His Time & May Be Flying Different Flags to Confuse Us ....
Note they are sending out the planes ...
...to find Alberto and collect data.
Satellite imagery
Note that rain shield there.
All leaning right.
Florida and W Cuba gonna get swamped with rain.
He's still down by Mexico...
...tip of the Yucatan.
Planning his trip North.
Alberto's Pirate Map
Try and catch him if you can.
Good luck.
Think of Alberto like a pirate, biding his time down by the Yucatan planning out his voyage back home to Barataria Bay with a stop to do business in either Mobile Bay or Pensacola Bay. Yes, the government is looking for him and they know he's hiding in some small cove somewhere with his ship but he's good at hiding and playing games with those trying to find him or pin him down. He rarely shows his hand in advance and he's very familiar with the coast line from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana, he knows every cove, the depth of the water and how to sneak in during stormy weather to get past those hunting him. Often he changes the flag his ship sails under to trick others and well being a pirate he does whatever he has to do to get to where he needs to go. And while traveling about he out runs his opponents, the federals looking for him and doesn't always take a straight path. Alberto the Pirate doesn't like to be easily monitored and he's good at avoiding surveillance and finding a spot to hide out and unload his precious cargo. He's often good at options and he has many so he could just as easily stop in at a cove somewhere that he's familiar with and wait it out until he has the best chance of achieving his goals. My money here is on Alberto.
We have maps like pirates have maps. The NHC has a pirates map filled with information that those cruising the waters near Alberto need to be aware of to best prepare themselves.
Everyone wants to know what to do this coming weekend as it is the official kick off of the Summer and a National Beach or BBQ holiday and that means out door events whether they are fishing, boating, swimming, hunting or hiking. And, there is a danger, pirate flag flying over half the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico and along the East coat of Florida there could be wild squalls and fast moving weather as well. So what do you do? It's easy for me to type "it's too soon" to tell but you want to kiss and tell and you want to know where we are going with this relationship now and to be honest it just takes a while to tell where we are going. Occupational hazard of doing this blog or running a weather site online is people want to know what about their town and the town they hoped to travel to for Memorial Day Weekend. May I suggest a movie and dinner inside somewhere ... somewhere they serve great drinks with little umbrellas in them and you can pretend you are at the beach.
Hans Solo was a Space Pirate.
And a bit of a Space Cowboy.
I have a good feeling about this movie...
Or you can buy lots of beer or sweet fruit drinks and use up your hurricane snacks watching the lava dance in Hawaii and waiting to see in real time what is happening. Currently 7,000 people are watching the feed from some guy's backyard in Hawaii.
Honestly I can say this over and over and I'm sorry that this system has been hyped for days now and it looks currently like some picayune annoying mess of rain but if you have studied it carefully like we have you'd know it is beginning to get a "look" and at some point Alberto who is still hiding down there by Mexico close to land is waiting for the shear to subside and waiting for the dry air to juice up a bit before setting sail up into the Gulf of Mexico trying to reach whichever beach he has his sights set on. You can play on www.windy.com and run the models back and forth as well as www.tropicaltidbits.com and you can hang out at www.hurricanecity.com reading Jim's thoughts and those who post on www.canetalk.com and get a better handle on this storm that may fly the flag of Subtropical Alberto or suddenly sneak in close to the coast flying the flag of Tropical Storm Alberto. Only time will tell.... the water is sufficiently hot to provide fuel for development and really close in the water is even warmer which makes this storm so much more difficult to forecast with an exactitude this far out before he has even wrapped up and pulled up his sails and set sail. Hurricane Recon is set to go in and we will more information late tomorrow.
Again the water closest to land is the warmest and that's not good as it means possible strengthening very close to land. One of the problems with Gulf of Mexico systems early in the year is that the water is usually warmest closest to land. That means there is little leeway time wise to warn the people living or visiting there and it pushes the NHC to err on the side of caution. Historically storms have pulled together, ramped up making a run for hurricane status and coming in as a very strong Tropical Storm after waddling around the GOM as a weak Subtropical Storm.
Bottom Line: To soon to tell exactly where this ends up but it will be dragging tropical moisture with it and towns in West Cuba and Florida will be the first to feel it's fury. This is not Hurricane Wilma or Hurricane Opal or Hurricane Katrina it is Alberto in the end and I do think it will get a name but will it fly the flag of Subtropical or Tropical or both? Only time will tell....
Don't ask me what I would do because I have been known to take my kids to the beach just before a hurricane and Mike most definitely would take his girls out to the beach to feel the wind while doing a Facebook Live. I do want to say that if you are not familiar with the beach it becomes dangerous fast for small children or even strong adults with riptides and thrashing waves at the height of a passing squall that can knock you off your feet and try to drag you out to sea. You got to be careful, you got to err on the side of caution and you got to find things to do indoors this weekend if Alberto puts into port near your town or throws a lightning bolt of nasty weather your way as he cruises by on his way to somewhere else. My money is still on landfall somewhere between Mobile Bay and the Florida Panhandle, but a lot depends on the strength of the High and how strong Alberto gets as he moves slowly towards landfall somewhere.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter for responses in real time as we shoot the tropical breeze and discuss the tropics, maps, models and where to go for Memorial Day Weekend...
Location: Miami, Raleigh, Crown Heights, Florida, United States
Weather Historian. Studied meteorology and geography at FIU. Been quoted in Wall Street Journal, Washington Post & everywhere else... Lecturer, stormchaser, writer, dancer. If it's tropical it's topical ... covering the weather & musing on life. Follow me on Twitter @ https://twitter.com/#!/BobbiStorm
